The Proud Tower:Wireless Internet Traffic Trends & Challenges

Roland Dobbins <rdobbins@arbor.net>Solutions Architect+66-83-266-6344 BKK mobile+65-8396-3230 SIN mobileArbor Public

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Introduction & Context

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Introduction & Context

Wireless is ‘hot’ - no longer a niche, but ubiquitous and increasingly critical to users.

Greenfield broadband deployments in the developing world are using wireless for the access edge.

Formerly voice-/minutes-oriented wireless carriers are now primarily ISPs, like it or not.

Artificial segregation of voice and data on the decline, converging into TCP/IP.

Wireless carriers are facing the same challenges that wireline carriers have faced over the last 15 years - all at once, now.

Legacy wireless voice-oriented architectures and business models ill-suited for the Internet, [painful]changes required.

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General Internet Traffic Trends

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Arbor Internet Observatory Report

Consolidation of Content Contributors- Content migrated out of enterprise / edge to aggregators- Consolidation of large Internet properties- Now only 150 origin ASNs now contribute 50% of traffic

Consolidation of Applications- Browser increasingly application front end (e.g., mail, video) - Applications migrate to HTTP or Flash ports / protocols- All other ports / app groups decline (except games and VPN)

Evolution of Internet Core and Economic Innovation- Majority of traffic direct between consumer and content providers- Market shifts focus to higher value services (MSSP, VPN, CDN, etc)- Experimentation with paid transit - Experimentation with paid content

More here - <http://www.nanog.org/meetings/nanog47/presentations/Monday/Labovitz_ObserveReport_N47_Mon.pdf>Page 7 - Pre-Publication Draft

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Three Mobile Wireless Carriers

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Wireless Mobile Carrier A - LATAM

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Wireless Mobile Carrier B - APAC

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General Wireless Observations

Last-meter hop is wireless, has been for years. Wireless rapidly becoming a complete wireline access

substitute/replacement. Laptops/routers with wireless dongles bring wireline-type

usage levels & consumption patterns. Streaming & downloaded video increasingly common on

wireless networks - tablets are increasing this dramatically

The attraction of immediacy - on-the-go photography & [HD!] video uploads increasing significantly.

Disproportionate percentage of paid transit vs. settlement-free peering amongst wireless operators.

The rise of the spime - M2M/M2H traffic increasingly commonplace.

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Some Comparisons Between Wireline & Wireless Mobile Broadband Traffic

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Wireline vs. Wireless - Traffic by Protocol

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Wireline vs. Wireless - TCP Traffic

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Wireline vs. Wireless - UDP Traffic

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ʻI had no idea how common using 3G dongles for Xbox Live is in underserved areas.ʼ-- Dr. Craig Labovitz

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Wireline vs. Wireless - Peering Distribution

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Current Challenges for Wireless Carriers

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Architectural Challenges

RF spectrum scarcity, capacity, coverage, permeation, preservation.

Backhaul capacity, utilization, preservation. Excessive state and its side-effects. Excessive latency and its side-effects. Resiliency. Excessive topological hierarchy in some instances. Insufficient topological hierarchy in some instances. Insufficient topological diversity/redundancy in many

instances. IPv4 exhaustion, IPv6 transition/co-existence.

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Current Architectures Are Brittle & Fragile

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Operational Challenges

Lack of visibility. Lack of control. Conceptual gaps - “We are not an ISP.” Skillsets & experiential deficits - IPv4, IPv6,

generalized computing/apps/services, BGP, DNS, opsec.

Wireless self-segregation from wireline operational community.

Data billing models - metered, ‘unlimited’ (capped), unlimited (for real), data roaming shock, data roaming fraud.

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Can’t See the Elephant(s) in the Room!

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Systemic Challenges

Rococo, unbelievably complex non-TCP/IP legacy technology.

Bypass/overlay/OTT (apps!). The Tyranny of ‘Minutes’. Failed attempts to control the user experience

(primarily handsets). User perception - you just can’t win!

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Current Models Aren’t Scalable Nor Sustainable

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Solutions forWireless Carriers

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Architectural Solutions

MANET - everyone becomes a MVNO, customers buy/build/own/operate the infrastructure, and pay for the privilege of doing so (WiFi Direct, USB 3.0, NFC, Zigbee, microcells/femtocells/picocells, stompboxes, et. al.). The more customers you gain, the more (virtual) network capacity you gain!

Capacity symmetry to facilitate MANET, CDN, etc. Structural separation - partner with wireline operators, get acquired by

wireline operators, become wireline operators. Freespace wireless infrastructure becomes wholesale.

Elimination of unnecessary, harmful state. Reduction of performance-killing latency. Implementation of architectural & architectural Best Current Practices

(BCPs) - topology, BGP, DNS, opsec, etc. Increased peering and traffic engineering. CDNs everywhere/everything. Locator/EID separation - LISP++ can ‘solve’ network mobility. IPv6 and/or Something Else.

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Resilient, Scalable Architectures Are Key!

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SP Logical DNS Architecture

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Operational Solutions

Wireless operators are ISPs - acceptance is the first step on the road to recovery.

Recruit, reward, retain, empower ‘Internet People’. Join the global operational community - no more

siloing! Simplify billing models.

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The Right People for the Right Jobs

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The Right Tools for the Right Jobs

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Systemic Solutions

Embrace TCP/IP, don’t make things more complex than they already are.

Partner with the overlays/OTTs (including app devs! become an app dev!), become part of their value chain.

Get away from ‘minutes’. Nobody cares about the network (except when it’s

broken) - apps/data/services/content are king. Quit trying to own/control the user experience - the

simplified user experience offered by iDevice app/store/content ecosystems will achieve the desired results, facilitate partnership in the value chain.

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Internet 2020

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What Will the Internet Look Like in Ten Years?

Largely wireless/mobile, ubiquitous and pervasive. The cloud is in your hand/pocket/picture frame - distributed

apps/data/services/content means everything runs/resides everywhere.

Dynamic arbitrage of compute/memory/storage/network resources amongst fixed & mobile wireless iDevices.

DNS ++, follow-the-X. Locator/EID separation - LISP++ Everyone gets his own /48 (or equivalent) for life. Near-complete consumerization of IT. The End of Phone Numbers is Nigh. Ubiquitous mobile telepresence, augmented reality -

holopresence on the way. Video increasingly synthetic, locally-generated. Less

bandwidth/session, but more sessions means overall growth.32

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Conclusions

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Conclusions

Mobile wireless traffic growing by leaps and bounds (we already knew this).

Wireless is rapidly becoming the default Internet access mechanism (we already knew this, too, but the implications haven’t sunk in - yet).

There are significant architectural, operational, and systemic challenges to continued growth, resiliency, and scale.

There are solutions to these challenges - some of the required changes seem pretty radical, but aren’t optional.

Many of the required changes aren’t technological, but are organizational, cultural, and social in nature - i.e., difficult.

‘The future is already here - it’s just not evenly distributed.’ -- William Gibson

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Welcome to the 21st Century Wireless Internet - Implementing the Technological Promises of the 1960s, Today! ;>

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Q&A

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Thank You!

Roland Dobbins <rdobbins@arbor.net>Solutions Architect+66-83-266-6344 BKK mobile+65-8396-3230 SIN mobile

Special thanks to Dr. Craig Labovitz, Danny McPherson, Prof. Farnham Jahanian, & Jon Oberheide!