www.ait.edu.gr

13 May 2009

The prospects of Fiber To The Home:State-of-the-art and future outlook

The prospects of Fiber To The Home:State-of-the-art and future outlook

Dr. Ioannis Tomkos (itom@ait.edu.gr)Associate Dean, Professor, Research Group Head, AIT

Adjunct Faculty, Carnegie-Mellon University, USATuesday, May 12th, 2009

Athens - Greece

ATHENS INFORMATION TECHNOLOGYATHENS INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

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OutlineOutline

• FTTx: The need for it

• FTTx: Worldwide deployment situation and forecasts

• FTTx: Architectures and Technologies

• FTTx: The Greek Case

• Conference program

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Services that require NGA networksServices that require NGA networks

• Services “on demand” or/and video-based services requireNGA infrastructure

• EU aims for a widespread participation to the knowledge society of 2010+ by activating its plan of action for access to inexpensive symmetrical 100 Mbps connections by the majority of the population

• EU is estimating the transition to the NGA/NGN at € 300 billion!

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Applications and bandwidth demandApplications and bandwidth demand

• Technologies/applications that are expected to flood the market (HDTV, 3D TV, tele-presence) are driving the demand forward

• The total bandwidth demand/ household is anticipated to reach 80 Mbps!

Telephony 256 Kbps

Video On Demand (4 Mbps per program)

8 Mbps

IP-Digital TV (4 Mbps per channel )

16 Mbps

High Definition TV (12 Mbps per channel)

24 Mbps

3D SDTV 20 Mbps

Gaming 4 Mbps

File downloading 4 Mbps

Web-surfing 2 Mbps

Video Conferencing Sessions 2 Mbps

Total Per Household ≈ 80 Mbps!

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Evolution in screen size will drive BW needsEvolution in screen size will drive BW needs

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Comparison between Ultra-HDΤV and HDTVComparison between Ultra-HDΤV and HDTV

• 3D HDTV alone requires 80 Mb/s!

• Ultra High Definition Video (UHDV) has already become available in Japan, requiring 200 – 600 Mbps…

• To reach the limits of the recent advancements in video services a huge amount of bandwidth is required...

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DSL is reaching the end of its journey…DSL is reaching the end of its journey…

• Access speeds increase 50% each year

– Important note: the fastest the connection the more it is used by the end customer

• DSL can only offer limited bit rates

– The discussion whether we should migrate to networks based in new infrastructure/technologies, is similar to the debate that took place in the late 90’s on the potential transition from ISDN to DSL

• It takes roughly 5 years...

ADSL2+ “Expiration” Date: 2013!

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Is timing good for FTTH?Is timing good for FTTH?

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FTTx Global Ranking December 2008FTTx Global Ranking December 2008

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FTTH/B subscribers in EuropeFTTH/B subscribers in Europe

• Data that excludes VDSL/VDSL2, FTTC, FTTN deployments by incumbents

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www.ait.edu.grWorldwide NewsWorldwide News

• Verizon (USA) is setting up a GPON network to cover 18M of houses by 2010 with an estimated Capex of 13.8B€.

• AT&T (USA) is developing GPON and FTTN+VDSL and the estimated investment is 6.5B€.

• In Australia the Government is looking to the implementation of a hybrid wired/wireless broadband network able to supply the households with 100Mbps symmetric BW.

• HKBN Lim. launched in 2004 its breakthrough service (1Gbps symmetric) investing 2B$. Started with 800k households, they plan to go for 2M households in 3 years.

Source: Reviving the Fixe Line”, Exane BNP Paribas (February 2009)

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www.ait.edu.grWorldwide NewsWorldwide News

•NTT/KDDI (Japan) offers 100Mbps DS at 5KY/month (around 38€) and launched its broadband service at 1Gbps symmetric in 2008. Estimated price around 56.54$/month (@2007).

•In Europe, FT with its pilot program offers 100Mbps symmetric with 3play TVHD at residential end-users where FTTH infrastructure has been realized. Estimated price around 62.9€/month (@2009).

•Other examples in Europe, with 100Mbps access solutions are in Amsterdam and in Stockholm.

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Source: Reviving the Fixe Line”, Exane BNP Paribas (February 2009)

www.ait.edu.grBeyond xDSL…Beyond xDSL…

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Forecast in EuropeForecast in Europe

• 15 million households until 2012Source: FTTH Council Europe/Heavy Reading, 2008

Thou

sand

s of

HH

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According to the Greek Government…According to the Greek Government…

• Is the time now for optical fiber Networks in Greece…?

• Yes because…• Increased broadband penetration rates have been achieved

only in the last 4 years.• Very rapid rates of increase in broadband penetration during

the last 2 years.• Greece has geostrategic significance.• There is no other significant competitive telecom network

infrastructure.• The population density justifies the investment (in the

selected cities)• There is a strong approval from the citizens• There is a definite government dedication.

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“FTTH Hype Cycle”“FTTH Hype Cycle”

2004

Sources: Gartner's Hype Cycle Special Report, FTTH Council Europe

20062000 2007 … time

Visi

bilit

y

In Greece the Hype Cycle peak was reached in 2008 due to the Greek Government FTTH project announcement

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FTTx Access Networks- TerminologyFTTx Access Networks- Terminology

• FTTx Access– Fiber-To-The-Exchange– Fiber-To-The-Cabinet– Fiber-To-The-Curb– Fiber-To-The-Building– Fiber-To-The-Home

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FTTx – Cost comparisonFTTx – Cost comparison

Source: Telecom Italia, 2008

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Is there only one FTTx solution?Is there only one FTTx solution?

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• «Home run fiber» (a) «Αctive star» (b)– Based on Active Ethernet– 1 fiber per OLT-ONU pair

– More ports per OLT

– Lower network design cost

– Regulator’s favorite due to easy LLU

• «Passive star» Architecture (c)– Based on PONs (BPON, GPON, EPON, WDM-PON)

– Requires less Capec in terms of fibers

– Use of passive infrastructure

– Easy and cost-effective management

– Preferred by the incumbent operators that have access in ducts

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FTTH ArchitecturesFTTH Architectures

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WDM-PON ArchitectureWDM-PON Architecture

Source: Nortel

• Emulates a PtP connection!• 1 wavelength per:

– PON– LAN– Building– Household– Service– ...

• Great flexibility in bandwidth

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In next generation access, wholesale access is essential to enable competitionIn next generation access, wholesale access is essential to enable competition

How you define your “open access network”?

• Duct access– Digging is the major cost in fibre deployment – in France and other countries with good infrastructure

duct access can help enable competition

• Dark fibre access– Where duct access is difficult or not available, dark fibre is often considered as the next best passive

access remedy

• Sub-loop unbundling (SLU)– In countries with FTTC deployments, there is focus on SLU

• Wavelength– DWDM PON is being deployed in Korea but is thought to be too expensive in Europe for the moment

• Bitstream (or Active Access)– Considered as an option where passive access is not available, rather than a preferred remedy

Source: Ofcom

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ConclusionsConclusions•• There is an imperative need to migrate to the NGN/NGA There is an imperative need to migrate to the NGN/NGA

networksnetworks

•• The transition of the telecom infrastructure towards FTTx The transition of the telecom infrastructure towards FTTx has already started across the globe and the Greek has already started across the globe and the Greek Government is amongst the leaders driving this Government is amongst the leaders driving this transitiontransition

•• There is a multitude of options that one may choose from There is a multitude of options that one may choose from regarding architectures, technologies, business models, regarding architectures, technologies, business models, financing strategies, regulatory issues etc. towards a financing strategies, regulatory issues etc. towards a successful deployment successful deployment

•• Several challenges remain open and should be Several challenges remain open and should be addressed during our conference!addressed during our conference!

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2nd FTTx Conference program (1/2)2nd FTTx Conference program (1/2)

• 09.30 - 11.00: Opening Session

The Greek and European framework of FTTH deploymentVasilios Assimakopoulos, Special Secretary for the Information Society, Ministry of Economy and FinancePanagiotis Tsanakas, Chairman of EDET, Member BoD, EETTIoanna Sambrakou, Advisor, Greek Ministry of Transport & TelecommunicationsLeo Kanellos, Chairman of the FTTH Committee, Greek Ministry of Transport & TelecommunicationsWolfgang Fischer, Member of BoD, FTTH Council Europe

• Coffee break (11:00 - 11:30)

• 11:30 - 13:00: Session I"How attractive is an FTTH deployment in Greece?" Charalampos Kallis, General Manager, INTRAKATJean-Michel Soulier, President, AXIA Networks FranceKonstantinos Ploumpis, General Manager, OTEThemis Papaioannou, Business Development Advisor, AKTORMaria Labropoulou, Country Manager & Managing Director, Orange Greece

• Lunch Break (13:00 - 14:00)

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2nd FTTx Conference program (2/2)2nd FTTx Conference program (2/2)• 14.00 - 15:30: Session II"How a mass scale FTTH deployment could be realized cost-effectively?" Elli Pagourtzi, President, Greek Observatory for the Information SocietyDimitrios Gorgias, Director of Network Engineering and Operations, hellas onlineKevin Bourg, Senior Director, Enablence Technologies/MaracIlias Koukouvinos, Managing Director, OptronicsYiannis Caloghirou & Theodoros Karounos, Advisors, Central Union of Local Authorities of Greece - KEDKE

• Coffee break (15:30 - 16:00)

• 16.00 - 17.30: Session III"What are the best solutions for FTTH network deployments?" Christos Kontelis, General Manager, INTRACOM TelecomThomas Kallstenius, Director of Technical Marketing, Alcatel-LucentAnastassios Lilakos, Regional Sales Manager, Greece/Cyrpus/Malta, CiscoJohn Gionas, Director Wireline, Government and Networked Enterprise, EricssonAndreas Polykarpou, FTTH Committee Coordinator, Greek Ministry of Transport & Telecommunications

• 17:45 - 19.00: Closing Session George Dalamagkas, Chief Executive Officer, Alcatel-Lucent, GreecePanos Sarantopoulos, General Manager, OTEPetros Souretis, Chief Executive Officer, INTRAKATIoannis Adamopoulos, Secretary General of Communications, Greek Ministry of Transport & Telecommunications Christos Zois, Deputy Minister of Interiors

Ioannis Tomkos & Ioannis Halavazis, Conference Organizers, "Concluding Remarks“

• Drinks Reception (19.00 – 20.00)

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2nd FTTx Conference:Sponsors and supporters2nd FTTx Conference:Sponsors and supporters

Gold Sponsors:

Silver Sponsors:

Sponsors&

Exhibitors

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Thank you for your attention!

Dr. Ioannis Tomkos

itom@ait.gr

+30 210 668 2771

FTTx has passed the point of no return!13 May 2009