The propaganda campaign against peaking fossil fuel production.michael.lardelli@adelaide.edu.au

Fenner Conference on Population, Resources and Climate Change.

Implications for Australia’snear future.

Energy is “The capacity to do work”.The overwhelming bulk of the work (economic activity) in our society uses the energy provided by fossil fuels

Global civilization’s energy use80.6% fossil fuels

(How much of the 11% “Biomass heat” is truly renewable?)

Renewables 2012 Global Status Report, REN21, http://www.map.ren21.net/GSR/GSR2012.pdf

Up to 30% of allfossil fuel production is used to supply food to your table(Aleklett 2010)

Why is this important? Civilization (“living in cities”) only occurs when farmers produce food surplus to their own needs.

http://www.rome.info/ancient/map/

The “foodshed” of Rome (a “renewables”-powered economy).

Where does a city end and its foodshed begin? Can one be separated from the other? What are the foodsheds of Australia’s cities?

http://www.energywatchgroup.org/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG-update2013_long_18_03_2013.pdf

Even the predictions of the Peak Oil “pessimists” have been too high!

- but they have been closer to the truth than any others…..

Murray & King, Nature 481, Pages: 433–435 26 January 2012

Gas production peaks before 2020

Coal production peaking within 10 years

So production rates of those fossil fuels that have not yet peaked should do so within 10 years.

But the quality of the fossil fuels is decreasing. What does this mean for energy production?

Energy investmentto get energy

Energy“Production”

NetEnergy

Civilization

Energy investmentto get energy

Energy“Production”

NetEnergy

Civilization

Energy investmentto get energy

Energy“Production”

NetEnergy ?

Civilization

HYPOTHETICAL: What happens when you combine declining oil production with declining energy profitability of oil production?

This curve does not factor in the effects of a contracting economy on the financial system and the consequent inability to invest in production.

Implications of peak oil (and other fossil fuels)

•Food prices will rise as food production falls while population is still growing

•Transport will be problematic – reduced globalisation – but food is more important !

•Financial collapse (cannot grow physical assets/economy to match money generated)

So why are we not responding?

Failure to respond to threat of peak fossil fuels

The idea that economic growth is no longer possible means that our world has become a “zero sum game” – one person can only “grow and prosper” at the expense of another’s increased poverty. Most people simply cannot accept this idea – especially since a rational response would involve limits on reproduction.

For most people, “progress” is the same as“getting bigger”.

Humans possess the capacity to be rational. Like any characteristic it varies between individuals. Most humans are not very rational and nobody is rational all the time. It is a conceit of environmentalists that better awareness of issues will cause people to behave in a rational manner regarding the long term survival of themselves and family. The pressures of day-to-day survival and reproduction do not select strongly for ‘long-term” thinking and action.

(The inverse of the ability to self-deceive)

Two major threats exist for the internationalfossil fuel industry:

•Decreased demand for its products

•Decreased ability to supply its products

The fossil fuel industry is threatened by the movement to reduce carbon dioxide emissions

“Basically, the [IEA World Energy Outlook report] data suggests, there are a trillion reasons for the global coal lobby to resist change. That’s one trillion dollars each and every year – the loss in annual revenue for the coal industry if the world takes serious action to prevent global warming, rather than just continuing on in business-as-usual.”

Giles Parkinson on 13 November 2012reneweconomy.com.au

Acceptance of peaking of fossil fuel production undermines belief in the ability of the industry to supply its products in future

According to the IEA (2011), $10 trillion must be invested in oil production during the next quarter century to supply the world’s needs. That is nearly half a trillion dollars per year.

The “Peak Oil” idea discourages the necessary investment and threatens the stock market value of the oil companies (as well as undermining confidence in future world economic growth). The oil industry MUST undermine the Peak Oil idea !

The tactic they use is to preferentially discuss oil reserves and avoid discussing production rates. Also, they change the definition of oil being discussed. Most commonly now they discuss “all liquids” rather than conventional crude oil. All liquids includes ethanol, other biofuels, and lighter hydrocarbons that are not useful in transport.

Remember, “Peak Oil” means “peak rate of oil production”.

It is the rate of oil/energy flow that is critical to our economy, not oil reserve size !

The anti-Peak Oil propaganda campaign

One high-profile report that did “examine” future oil production (foreseeing the possibility of a glut) was based on ridiculous calculations…

www.davidstrahan.com/blog/

Reports by Geologist Dr. David Hughes

From www.shalebubble.org

From, “Peeking at Peak Oil” by Kjell Aleklett. Illustration by Olle Qvennerstedt

Whatever your views on the sensitivity of climate to CO2 levels, one cannot make rational responses without considering the impact of fossil fuel production limits(e.g. effects on ability to build renewables infrastructure)

Australian government suppresses Peak Oil analysis

A 436 page report on Peak Oil produced by the Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development and Local Government.

The draft report was sent out for “peer”-review and comments were received.

The report was never revised according to the reviewers’ comments and was never released. In fact, another report was later denoted “Report 117” and the Peak Oil draft report is not available from BITRE.

Reviewer 1:

Reviewer 3:

So Reviewer 1 believes the data (not just the analysis) used by ‘peak oil’ proponents is wrong (!) and that production of a finite resource like oil on a finite planet might never peak?

Australia’s significant oil insecurity

Australia’s oil production peaked in 2000. We have not responded appropriately. If supplies from Singapore are disrupted (e.g. due to an attack on Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz) the oil supply crisis will be extremely severe and food supplies to Australia’s cities will be disrupted.

An developing system is like a boulder rolling down valleys with various “decision/choice points”. As it gains momentum it requires more and more energy to change its path. The time to reorganise a system is when it begins to tip over to something new (i.e. now). When the new system has established its developmental trajectory it will be difficult to alter it significantly.

Choicepoints

Different developmental trajectories for society

Energybarriers

Egypt imports 40% of its food, and 60% of its wheat. Note the 2% population growth similar to Australia’s! No hope for Egypt.

“Bread, Freedom, Social Justice”– the rallying cry in Egypt during the “Arab Spring”.

Australia’s current population

Egypt’s population nearly quadrupled in only 60 years

http://ourfiniteworld.com/2011/01/29/whats-behind-egypts-problems/

Can we feed a “Big Australia” ?(essay online at www.energybulletin.net)

Australia already not self-sufficient in fruit & veg.

(Signposts for Australian Agriculture 2008 report by the National Land and Water Resources Audit)

In a drought year – under current energy, fertiliser and climatic conditions - we could not supply double our population with grain. Most meat production is dependent on grain.