The Promised Land - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

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    SUMMARY

    The Promised Land

    Christophe Jaffrelot

    OP-ED

    MAY 18, 2015INDIAN EXPRESS

    India needs to industrialize, but can it do so at the expense of its food security?

    The development agenda of the Narendra Modi government implies industrialisation. The BJPs 2014mandate was indeed for job creation. The neo-middle class, which Modi defined when he was CM ofGujarat as made up of aspiring city dwellers who have just emerged from poverty, supported him morewidely than the poor. This was partly because of the vikas purush image he had acquired by presentinghis home state as a model. He has to cater to the needs of this constituency, apart from tending to theBJPs relationship with major corporate houses.

    Several reforms have been decided already in order to foster private investment, including the reduction ofthe corporate tax rate from 30 to 25 per cent. But to Make in India, industrialists need factories. For that,theyneed land. That is one of the things they were looking for when they decided to make in Gujarat unde

    Modis chief ministership. Not only was the decision-making quick, but the land was also cheap. Forinstance, once the Tata group decided to shift the Nano factory from West Bengal, where peasants hadfought for their land, to Gujarat, the deal was wrapped up in no time. Much land was also allotted to SEZs.Theycover about 27,000 hectares but companies have allegedly sold or leased part of this land for variouspurposes (including real estate-oriented ones) that had nothing to do with the initial industrialisationobjective. CAG reports in the past have flagged various irregularities in SEZs.

    The transfer of land to non-agriculturistswasmade easier in Gujarat by the reform of the Bombay TenancandAgricultural Land Rules, as Nikita Sud explains in Liberalisation, Hindu Nationalism and the State: ABiography of Gujarat. This piece of regulation prohibited the purchase of agricultural land by anybody notresiding within eight kilometresof the plot. It meant thatcity dwellers could not easily buy land, which

    therefore remained in the hands of agriculturists. In 1988, the Congress state government amended thisprovision, restricting it todrought-affected areas. Whenthe BJP took over in 1995, the partydecided that npermission would be required from the revenue officials for the conversion of farmland up to 10 hectares tnon-agricultural status in order to set up a bona fide industrial unit. In 1999, the BJP government also triedto make possible the sale of gauchar land (that is, village commons or pastoral land). Large-scale protestsby the pastoral Maldhari community forced it to abandon this step, but the CM issued a governmentresolution sealing the fate of this kind of land, as well as all wasteland.

    In addition to the Maldharis, other peasants of Gujarat resisted some of these developments. In Mahua,when an SEZ of 268 hectares was granted to Nirma to set up a cement plant, in addition to a mining leaseon more than 3,000 hectares along the coastline areas of Bhavnagar district, local BJP MLA Kanubhai

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    Kalsaria objected that the water tank on which the villagers depended would be damaged. Sidelined, heresigned from the party to fight the governments policy.

    But the peasants of Gujarat mobilised more vigorously behind the RSS-affiliated Bharatiya Kisan Sangh when the government decided to significantly hike power tariffs than for the land issue. Why? BecauseGujarat was one of the few states where the total surface of cultivable land had increased by 37 lakhhectares in the last decade. Why? Because of the completion of the Narmada dam, which, after 2001 (theyear Modi became CM), enabled Gujarat to irrigate new lands. The dam had been conceived to irrigate upto 1.8 million hectares in the state and by 2012, the Modi government considered 82.39 per cent of ultimatirrigation potential of surface water to have been achieved.

    The completion of the Narmada project was responsible for the remarkable growth of agriculture in Gujarawhich the Planning Commission estimated to be 8.46 per cent over 2005-06 to 2011-12, while the nationaaverage stood at only 3.82 per cent. Still, the primary sector declined from 19.5 per cent of the gross statedomestic product in 2004-05 to only 14.6 per cent in 2010-11, whereas the share of services went up from44 to 46 per cent and industry jumped from 36.5 to 39.4 per cent, a clear sign of Gujarats capacity totransition towards industrialisation.

    This smooth transition in Gujarat in addition to pressures from the corporate sector and expectationsfrom the neo-middle class could explain why Modi is so adamant about amending the land acquisition

    act. But Gujarat is not India. Almost everywhere else, the amount of agricultural land is shrinking. The fall, the national level, has been of 2.76 million hectares between 1988-89 and 2008-09. An additional 4,06,000hectares was lost between 2007-08 and 2010-11, mostly to urbanisation and industrialisation. Partly for threason and because of population growth, the per capita availability of agricultural land has declined from0.34 hectares in 1950-51 to 0.17 hectares in 1999-2000 and 0.12 hectares in 2010-11. On top of this,according to the Indian Council for Agricultural Research, 107 million hectares are degraded land(because of salinisation, water erosion etc). Certainly, India could expand the cultivable area by spreadingirrigation only 60 million of the 142 million hectares cultivated today are irrigated. But water tables aregetting lower, especially in states like Punjab and Haryana.

    This year, for the first time since 2010, India is importing 80,000 tonnes of wheat from Australia. Of coursethis is because of the unexpected rains that damaged the crop in the north. But this kind of accident couldbecome more frequent because of climate change. Certainly, India needs to industrialise, but can it do soat the expense of its food security?

    This article was originally published in the Indian Express.

    About the South Asia Program

    The Carnegie South Asia Program informs policy debates relating to the regions security, economy, andpolitical development. From the war in Afghanistan to Pakistans internal dynamics to U.S. engagement wiIndia, the Programs renowned team of experts offer in-depth analysis derived from their unique access tothe people and places defining South Asias most critical challenges.

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