The Program on the Appraisal of Infrastructure Projects with - ppiaf

The Public-Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility (PPIAF),

the SADC-Development Finance Resource Center (DFRC) and the Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA)

in collaboration with John Deutsch International Executive Programs

Queen’s University, Kingston, Canada

The Program on the Appraisal of Infrastructure Projects with Private Participation

May 11 – 29, 2009 The training was funded by the Public Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility (PPIAF), a multi-donor technical assistance facility aimed at helping developing countries improve the quality of their infrastructure through private sector involvement. (for more information see http://www.PPIAF.org)

southern africandevelopment community

development financeresource center

The Program on the Appraisal of Infrastructure Projects with

Private Participation

May 11 – 29, 2009

Course Description •• FFAACCUULLTTYY BBIIOOGGRRAAPPHHIIEESS •• SSYYLLLLAABBUUSS

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1

Program on the Appraisal of Infrastructure Projects with Private Participation

May 11 – 29, 2009

FACULTY BIOGRAPHIES

Glenn P. Jenkins is Professor of Economics at Queens University, Canada, and Director of its Program on Investment Appraisal and Risk Analysis. He is also an Institute Fellow Emeritus, of Harvard University, and is President of Cambridge Resources International. In 1985, he founded the Program on Investment Appraisal and Management at the Harvard Institute for International Development (HIID), Harvard University, and was its Director from 1985 to 2000. Dr. Jenkins specializes in the fields of public finance, investment appraisal, and economic development. He has worked extensively on the appraisal and planning of major infrastructure investments around the world. He has published sixteen books, and over hundred articles in these subject fields. Dr. Jenkins is the former Assistant Deputy Minister of Tax Policy and Legislation in the Department of Finance for the Government of Canada, and He has served as a consultant to many governments and private agencies, as well as to international organizations such as the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the African Development Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank, the Southern African Development Community, the Caribbean Development Bank, the Ford Foundation, and the North-South Institute. His educational background includes a B. Comm. in Economics from Carleton University in Canada, a M.A. in Economics from the University of Western Ontario, and both a M.A. and a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Chicago. Christopher Shugart is a consultant who specializes in the design and implementation of public-private partnerships. He is both a lawyer and an economist. From 1994 to 2002 Dr. Shugart worked for the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) in London, UK. His work was primarily focused on the privatization of water and sewerage utilities in the countries of Central Europe. Prior to joining the EBRD he worked in a number of advisory positions for the Harvard Institute for International Development and spent 10 years with the UN Capital Fund in francophone Africa. He earned a J. D. from the Hastings School of Law in California and a M.P.A. and PhD from Harvard University. Abdulrezak N. Mohamed is Associate Professor of Construction Engineering and Management, of the Department of Civil Engineering, Eastern Mediterranean University and a Senior Fellow at John Deutsch Institute, Queen’s University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada. Dr. Mohamad received his MS degree in Construction Management from Middle East Technical University, Ankara. He obtained his Ph.D. degree in Construction Management at Eastern Mediterranean University. He is also an alumnus of Program on Investment Appraisal and Risk Analysis, John Deutsch International, Queen’s University, Canada in 2007. His main research interests are application of knowledge based systems in construction management, TQM in construction, value management, bidding and estimating, and construction productivity. He has served as a Lecturer with the Program on Investment Appraisal and Risk Analysis at Development Finance Resources Center–SADC, Botswana. In addition, he has served as the director of Construction Management Research and Practice Center at Eastern Mediterranean University.

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Aygul Ozbafli is an Economist with the John Deutsch International Executive Programs at Queen’s University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada. Her area of specialization is Investment Appraisal, and in particular the use of stated choice techniques to evaluate willingness to pay for reliability of electricity supply. She has served as a Lecturer with the Program on Investment Appraisal and Risk Analysis, John Deutsch International Executive Programs, Queen’s University, Canada, since 2005. Ms. Ozbafli graduated with a B.Sc. in electrical engineering from the University of Colorado and also graduated from MBA from University of Colorado’s School of Business. She obtained an MA in economics from Bilkent University in Ankara, Turkey. At the present time she is also completing a Ph.D. in economics at University of Birmingham, UK. Blerina Mucaj is currently working towards her Ph.D. degree in Economics at Eastern Mediterranean University, North Cyprus. She obtained her B.A. and M.A. in Banking and Finance from Eastern Mediterranean University in 2004 and 2006, respectively. Throughout the duration of her graduate studies she has held positions as lecturer, researcher and Teaching Assistant at the departments of Economics and Banking and Finance. She holds the professional certificate in Investment Appraisal and Risk Analysis from John Deutsch International Executive Programs at Queen’s University, Canada. Her research interests include; application of financial and economic analysis to public utility and infrastructure projects, cost-benefit analysis, public finance as well as management and administration of pension funds. Elisee Parfait Feudjio Foka is an Investment Appraisal Analyst with the John Deutsch International Executive Programs at Queen’s University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada. He has worked on the preparation of a number feasibility studies for infrastructure projects. Mr. Foka holds a M. A. in Banking and Finance from Eastern Mediterranean University. In addition, he has earned a diploma in the 12 month Project Management Program at the University of Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada. He has also earned a Certificate in the Program on Investment Appraisal and Risk Analysis, John Deutsch International, Queens University in 2007. Ahmad Haseeb Payab is a research assistant in Department of Civil Engineering, Eastern Mediterranean University, North Cyprus. His area of interest is Construction Management, Value Management, Investment Appraisal, Project Finance, Risk Management, and Transportation Economics. Mr. Payab holds Bsc degree in Civil Engineering from Eastern Mediterranean University, North Cyprus, and is following Msc degree in Civil Engineering specializing in Construction Management, from the same University. He holds the professional certificate in Investment Appraisal and Risk Analysis from John Deutsch International Executive Programs at Queen’s University, Canada. Leonard Leung is a doctoral candidate at Queen’s University, Ontario, Canada. He earned the profession certificate for the Program in Investment Appraisal and Risk Analysis at Queen’s University in August 2008. He also earned his MA in Economics from Queen’s University. He holds B.A. degrees in Political Science and Asian Studies and also in Economics from the University of British Columbia, Canada. His research interests include: development economics and public finance.

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Program on The Appraisal of Infrastructure Projects with Private Participation

May 11 - 29, 2009

1

WEEK 1, DAY 1

MONDAY, MAY 11

08:30 – 10:00 Integrated Investment Appraisal Introduction to Integrated Financial-Economic-Distributive-Risk Appraisal of Projects

Readings/ References:

• Jenkins, G., et.al, “Chapter 1: The Integrated Analysis,” Integrated Investment Appraisal: Concepts and Practice, 2005.

• Jenkins, G., et.al, “Chapter 3: An Overview of the Evaluation Framework,” Integrated Investment Appraisal: Concepts and Practice, 2005.

10:00 – 10:15 Break

10:15 – 12:00 Alternative Investment Criteria and Estimation and Use of Debt Service Ratios


• Jenkins, G., et.al, “Chapter 4: Discounting and Alternative Investment Criteria,” Integrated Investment Appraisal: Concepts and Practice, 2005.

• Ley, Eduardo, “Cost-Benefit Analysis: Evaluation Criteria (Or: “Stay away from the IRR"), KNOWLEDGE BRIEF FOR BANK STAFF, PRMED, The World Bank, MAY 2008.

12:00 – 13:00 Lunch

13:00 – 15:00 Case Study: Application of Integrated Project Appraisal for Evaluation of Privatization Prospects: Manila Metropolitan Waterworks and Sewerage Systems


• Marin et al., “Executive Summary :Public-Private Partnership For Urban Water Utilities: A Review Of Experiences In Developing Countries”; the Energy, Transport, and Water Department of the World Bank, in partnership with PPIAF; December 2008

• Glenn P. Jenkins, Vijdan Korman and Pradip Ghimire, “The Manila South Water Distribution Project: A Precursor to Privatization”, July 21, 2003

• “Will Asian privatisation be watered down in Manila?(possible privatization of the waterworks in Manila, Philippines)”, February 1, 1997, The Economist and, “Privatization Fails to Plug Metro Manila's Water Woes”, Friday, 24 January 2003, Inter Press Service.

15:00 – 15:15 Break

15:15 – 18:00 Assignment: Alternative Investment Criteria


May 11 - 29, 2009

2

WEEK 1, DAY 2

TUESDAY, MAY 12 08:30 – 10:00 Micro-Economics I for Economic Valuation


• Dhakal, D.N.S., Lecture Notes on "Foundations of Applied Microeconomics for Investment Appraisal,” Cambridge Resources International, 2000.

• Jenkins, G.P., and Harberger, A.C., “Chapter 7: Objectives and Framework for Economic Investment Appraisal”, Cost-Benefit Analysis for Investment Decisions, Queen’s University, 2002.

10:00 – 10:15

Break

10:15 – 12:00 Micro-Economics II for Economic Valuation

12:00 – 13:00 Lunch

13:00 – 15:00 Assignment on Measurement of Willingness to pay and Economic Resource Costs

15:00 – 15:15 Break

15:15 – 18:00

Samz Water Project Modelling for Financial Analysis


• Handout of Financial and Sensitivity Analysis of Samz Water Case • Marin, P., Izaguirre, A.K.,” Private Participation in Water: Toward a

new generation of Projects?” Gridlines: World Bank Public-Private Infrastructure Facility (PPIAF),Note No.14, Sept.2006


May 11 - 29, 2009

3

WEEK 1, DAY 3

WEDNESDAY, MAY 13 08:30 – 10:00 Principles Underlying the Economic Analysis of Projects


• Harberger, A.C., Jenkins, G.P., and Kuo, C.Y., “Chapter 7: Principles Underlying the Economic Analysis of Projects,” Cost-Benefit Analysis for Investment Decisions, Queen’s University, Canada, (2008).

10:00 – 10:15

Break

10:15 – 12:00 Principles Underlying the Economic Analysis of Projects(Cont’d)

12:00 – 13:00 Lunch

13:00 – 15:00 SAMZ Water Project: Sensitivity Analysis

15:00 – 15:15 Break

15:15 – 18:00

Participant Presentation of Financial and Sensitivity Analysis: SAMZ Water Project


May 11 - 29, 2009

4

WEEK 1, DAY 4 THURSDAY, MAY 14

08:30 – 10:00 Economic Opportunity Cost of Capital for PPPs / Economic Cost of Foreign Financing

Readings/ References: Supplementary:

• Harberger, A.C., Jenkins, G.P. and Kuo, C.Y, “Chapter 8: The Economic Opportunity Cost of Capital,” Cost-Benefit Analysis for Investment Decisions, Queen’s University, Canada, (March 2007).

• Shugart.C., “PPPs, The Public Sector Comparator, And Discount Rates: Key Issues For Developing Countries”, Revised version of a paper presented at the conference: Discount Rates for the Evaluation of Public Private Partnerships, John Deutsch Institute for the Study of Economic Policy, Queen’s University, Kingston, Ontario, 3 October 2008(January 2009)

• Jenkins, G.P, “Economic aspects of foreign financing,” Queen’s University, Canada. ( February 2001)

• Kuo, C. Y., Jenkins, G.P. and Mphahlele, M.P., “The Economic Opportunity Cost of Capital for South Africa,” The South African Journal of Economics, Vol. 71:3, September 2003, pp. 496-516.

10:00 – 10:15 Break

10:15 – 12:00 Economic Prices and Conversion factors for Tradable Inputs and Outputs


• Harberger, A.C., Jenkins, G.P. and Kuo, C.Y, “Chapter 10: Economic Prices for Tradable Goods and Services,” Cost-Benefit Analysis for Investment Decisions, Queen’s University, Canada, (August 2008).

• Teaching Note: “Estimation of Economic Prices for Traded Goods and Services,” Queen’s University, Canada, (March 2007).

12:00 – 13:00 Lunch

13:00 – 15:00 Measurement of Economics Values of Tradable Goods for SAMZ Water Project

• Handout of Economic Analysis for Samz Water Project

15:00 – 15:15 Break

15:15 – 18:00

Measurement of Economics Values of Tradable Goods for SAMZ Water Project


May 11 - 29, 2009

5

WEEK 1, DAY 5

FRIDAY, MAY 15 08:30 – 10:00 Economic Valuation of Project Outputs in Non-Competitive

Markets (Electricity, Water and Telecommunication)


• Graves, Philip E. and Sexton, Robert L., "Demand and Supply Curves: Rotations versus Shifts" (March 2003). Atlantic Economic Journal, Volume 34, Number 3, September, 2006.

10:00 – 10:15 Break

10:15 – 12:00 Measurement of Economic Prices for Non-Tradable Inputs and Outputs


• Harberger, A.C., Jenkins, G.P. and Kuo, C.Y, “Chapter 11: Economic Prices for Non-Tradable Goods and Services,” Cost-Benefit Analysis for Investment Decisions, Queen’s University, Canada, (August 2008).

• Teaching Note: “Senegal Water and Sanitation Project,” Queen’s University, Canada, 2005.

12:00 – 13:00 Lunch

13:00 – 15:00 Measurement of Economics Values of Water Services of Different Qualities for SAMZ Water Project

15:00 – 15:15 Break

15:15 – 18:00 Measurement of Economics Values of Water Services of Different Qualities for SAMZ Water Project


May 11 - 29, 2009

6

WEEK 1, DAY 6

SATURDAY, MAY 16 08:30 – 10:00 Economic Cost of Foreign Exchange


• Harberger, A.C., Jenkins, G.P. and Kuo, C.Y, “Chapter 9: The Shadow Price of Foreign Exchange and Non-Tradable Outlays,” Cost-Benefit Analysis for Investment Decisions, Queen’s University, Canada, (August 2008).

• Harberger, A.C., Kuo, C. Y., Jenkins, G.P. and Mphahlele, M.P., “The Economic Cost of Foreign Exchange for South Africa,” The South African Journal of Economics, Vol. 71:2, June 2003, pp. 298-324.

• Arnold C. Harberger, Notes on the Premia for Foreign Exchange and Non-Tradables Outlays, University of California, Los Angeles, August 2002

10:00 – 10:15 Break

10:15 – 12:00 Stakeholder Analysis (Transportation, and Port Projects)


• Harberger, A.C., Jenkins, G.P. and Kuo, C.Y, “Chapter 13: Evaluation of Stakeholder Impacts,” Cost-Benefit Analysis for Investment Decisions, Queen’s University, Canada, (August 2008).

END OF WEEK ONE


May 11 - 29, 2009

7

WEEK 2, DAY 1

MONDAY, MAY 18 08:30 – 10:00 Cost and Benefit of Electricity Investments


• Harberger, A.C., “Chapter 9: Marginal Cost Pricing and Social Investment Criteria for Electricity Undertakings,” Project Evaluation: Collected Papers, University of Chicago Press, 1976.

10:00 – 10:15 Break

10:15 – 12:00 Presentation on “Appraisal of El-Kureimat Combined Cycle Power Plant”


• A Summary of the Integrated Project Appraisal Methodology in case of “El-Kureimat Combined Cycle Power Plant (Module II)” in Egypt, Queen’s University, 2005.

12:00 – 13:00 Lunch 13:00 – 15:00 Stakeholder Analysis of SAMZ Water Project

• Handout of Stakeholder Analysis of Samz Water Project • Gassner. K., Popov. A., and Pushak. N.,” Does the private sector deliver on

its promises? Evidence from a global study in water and electricity” Gridlines: World Bank Public-Private Infrastructure Facility (PPIAF),Note No.36, May 2008.

15:00 – 15:15 Break

15:15 – 18:00 Stakeholder Analysis of SAMZ Water Project

• PPP Issue: Profit versus revenue sharing mechanisms


May 11 - 29, 2009

8

WEEK 2, DAY 2

TUESDAY, MAY 19 08:30 – 10:00 Public Private Partnerships: The Public Sector Comparator


• Hemming Richard, “Chapter 1: Public-Public Partnerships,” Public-Private Partnerships, Government Guarantees, and Fiscal Risk. International Monetary Fund, Washington DC, 2006.

• Leigland. J, and Shugart., C.,” Is the public sector comparator right for developing countries? Appraising public-private projects in infrastructure” Gridlines: World Bank Public-Private Infrastructure Facility (PPIAF),Note No.4, April 2006.

• Bettingnies J. and Ross W., (2004) “The Economics of Public-Private Partnerships”, Canadian Public Policy/Analyse de Politiques, Vol. 30, No. 2. (Jun., 2004), pp. 135-154, Canada.

10:00 – 10:15 Break

10:15 – 12:00 Elements of Project Finance


• Yescombe E. R, “Chapter 2: What is Project Finance,” Principles of Project Finance, Academic Press, 2002.

• Finnerty, J.D., “Chapter 1: Introduction,” “Chapter 2: The Rational for Project Financing,” “Chapter 5: Legal Structure,” Project Financing – Asset-Based Financial Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, Weinheim, 1996.

12:00 – 13:00 Lunch

13:00 – 15:00 Participants Presentation of Analysis: Economic and Stakeholder

Analysis: SAMZ Water Project

15:00 – 15:15 Break

15:15 – 18:00 Structure and Overview of Financial and Sensitivity Analysis of Bright Light Electricity Generation Project

• Handout of Financial and Sensitivity Analysis of Bright Light Electricity Generation Project


May 11 - 29, 2009

9

WEEK 2, DAY 3

WEDNESDAY, MAY 20 08:30 – 10:00 Project Finance and Managing Project Risks


• Beale C. W.,, Trends in Limited and Non-Recourse Financing, 1984. • John M. Niehuss, An Introduction to International Project Financing, 1982. • Finnerty, John D, "Chapter 3: Analysis of Project Viability," Project Financing:

Asset Based Financial Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, 1996. • Irwin T., Klein M., Perry G. E., and Thobani M., “Chapter 1: Dealing with Risk in

Private Public Infrastructure: An Overview,” Dealing with Public Risk in Private Infrastructure. The World Bank, 1997.

10:00 – 10:15 Break

10:15 – 12:00 Security Arrangements


• Finnerty, John D, "Chapter 4: Security Arrangements," Project Financing: Asset Based Financial Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, 1996.

12:00 – 13:00 Lunch

13:00 – 15:00 Financial Analysis of Bright Light Electricity Generation Project

• Jenkins, G. P., and Lim, H. B. F., “An Integrated Analysis of a Power Purchase

Agreement”, Chapter 5, July 2003. • PPP Issue: Determining the maximum gearing to be permitted for a project.

15:00 – 15:15 Break

15:15 – 18:00 Participants Presentation of Financial Analysis of Bright Light Electricity Project


May 11 - 29, 2009

10

WEEK 2, DAY 4

THURSDAY, MAY 21 08:30 – 10:00

Project Contractual Structure


• Sapte, W., “Chapter 4: Overview of Contractual Structures”, Project Finance: The guide to financing build-operate-transfer projects, Euromoney Books, London, 1997.

• Yescombe E. R, “Chapter 6: Project Contracts (1),” Principles of Project Finance, Academic Press, 2002.

10:00 – 10:15 Break 10:15 – 12:00

Limited Recourse Financing of the Sofia Water System Concession: Dealing with Risks


• Shugart, C., Private Sector Participation in Water and Wastewater Services in Central and Eastern Europe; Brief Case Studies: Sofia And Brno, December 2004.

• Marin et al., “Public-Private Partnership For Urban Water Utilities: A Review Of Experiences In Developing Countries”, the Energy, Transport, and Water Department of the World Bank, in partnership with PPIAF; Chapter 2, 3, and 4, December 2008

12:00 – 13:00 Lunch 13:00 – 15:00 Readings/ References:

Structure and Overview of Economic Analysis of Bright Light Electricity Generation Project

• Handout of Economic Analysis of Bright Light Electricity Generation Project

• Tenenbaum, B., Izaguirre, A. K., “Private participation in electricity: The challenge of achieving commercial viability and improving services” Gridlines: World Bank Public-Private Infrastructure Facility (PPIAF), Note No.21, May 2007.

15:00 – 15:15 Break

15:15 – 18:00 Readings/ References:

Economic Analysis of Bright Light Electricity Generation Project

• PPP Issue: Structuring a Public Sector Comparator Analysis


May 11 - 29, 2009

11

WEEK 2, DAY 5

FRIDAY, MAY 22 08:30 – 10:00

Project Finance and Loan Agreements


• Lecture Notes • Greer, I., “Mining Project Finance Lessons for All Projects”, Standard for Poor

Project & Infrastructure Finance, Page 45-49, October 2001.

10:00 – 10:15 Break

10:15 – 12:00 Lenders Financial Model


• Lecture Notes

12:00 – 13:00 Lunch

13:00 – 15:00 Structure and Overview of Stakeholder Analysis of Bright Light Electricity Generation Project


• Handout of Stakeholder Analysis of Bright Light Electricity Generation Project.

• PPP Issue: Sharing gains from refinancing. • PPP Issue: Determining the economic value of penalties (deductions,

liquidation damages) in the case of delay in and of less than promised capacity.

15:00 – 15:15 Break

15:15 – 18:00 Review


May 11 - 29, 2009

12

WEEK 2, DAY 6

SATURDAY, MAY 23 08:30 – 10:00 Preparation for Participants Presentation on Economic and

Stakeholder Analysis of Bright Light Electricity Co.

10:00 – 10:15 Break

10:15 – 12:00 Participants Presentation of Economic and Stakeholder Analysis of Bright Light Electricity Generation Project

12:00 – 13:00 Lunch

END OF WEEK TWO


May 11 - 29, 2009

13

WEEK 3, DAY 1

MONDAY, MAY 25 08:30 – 10:00 Participant Evaluations

10:00 – 10:15 Break 10:15 – 12:00 Economic Opportunity Cost of Labor


• Harberger, A.C. and Jenkins, G.P., and Kuo, C. Y., “Chapter 12: The Economic Opportunity Cost of Labor,” Cost-Benefit Analysis for Investment Decisions, Queen’s University, Canada, (Febr 2008).

• Bicak, H., Jenkins, G.P., Kuo, C. Y., and Mphahlele, M.P., “An operational guide to the Estimation of The Economic Opportunity Cost of Labour in South Africa,” The South African Journal of Economics, Vol. 72:5, December 2004.

12:00 – 13:00 Lunch

13:00 – 15:00 Structure and Overview of M-12 Toll Road Financial Analysis

• Handout of Financial and Sensitivity Analysis of M-12 Toll Road Project

15:00 – 15:15 Break

15:15 – 18:00 M-12 Toll Road Financial Analysis: Traffic Demand and Toll Design


May 11 - 29, 2009

14

WEEK 3, DAY 2

TUESDAY, MAY 26 08:30 – 10:00 Costs and Benefits of Transportation Investment


• Harberger, A.C., “Chapter 10: Cost-Benefit Analysis of Transportation Projects”, Project Evaluation: Collected Papers, University of Chicago Press, 1976.

• Capital Appraisal Handbook, Road Agency of Limpopo, Cambridge Resources International, MA, USA, 2004.

• Queiroz, C., And Izaguirre, A. K., “Worldwide trends in private participation in roads: Growing activity, growing government support” Gridlines: World Bank Public-Private Infrastructure Facility (PPIAF), Note No.37, May 2008.

10:00 – 10:15 Break 10:15 – 12:00 Presentation of a case on Road Upgrading


• Lecture Notes

12:00 – 13:00 Lunch

13:00 – 15:00 M-12 Toll Road Financial Analysis: Financing Units, Exchange Rates and Toll Design

15:00 – 15:15 Break

15:15 – 18:00 Participants Presentation M-12 Toll Road Financial and Risk Analysis


May 11 - 29, 2009

15

WEEK 3, DAY 3

WEDNESDAY, MAY 27 08:30 – 10:00 Cost Effectiveness


• Harberger, A.C. and Jenkins, G.P., and Kuo, C. Y., “Chapter 15: Cost-Effectiveness Analysis and Cost-Utility Analysis” Cost-Benefit Analysis for Investment Decisions, Queen’s University, Canada, July 2008.

10:00 – 10:15 Break


M-12 Toll Road Economic Analysis

• Handout of Economic Analysis of M-12 Toll Road Project.

12:00 – 13:00 Lunch

13:00 – 15:00


15:00 – 15:15 Break


M-12 Toll Road Stakeholder Analysis

• Handout of Stakeholder Analysis of M-12 Toll Road Project. • Harris, C., and Pratap, K., V., “What drives private sector exit from

infrastructure? Economic crises and other factors in the cancellation of private infrastructure projects in developing countries” Gridlines: World Bank Public-Private Infrastructure Facility (PPIAF), Note No.46, Mar. 2009.

• PPP Issue: Alternative rules for determining termination payment to the concessionaire in the case of public sector default in convenience termination.


May 11 - 29, 2009

16

WEEK 3, DAY 4

THURSDAY, MAY 28 08:30 – 10:00 Parameterization of Risk


• Lim, Henry and Jenkins, Glenn, Appendix of "An Integrated Analysis of a Power Purchase Agreement."

• Harberger, A.C., and Jenkins, G.P., (ed.), “Introduction: The Treatment of Risk in Public Project Evaluation,” Cost-Benefit Analysis, Edward Elgar Publisher, 2002, pp. xxxviii to xlii.

• Mun, Johnathan, “Chapter 8: Tomorrow’s Forecast Today,” Applied Risk Analysis: Moving Beyond Uncertainty in Business, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2004, pp. 175-183.

• Mun, Johnathan, “Chapter 9: Using the Past to Predict the Future,” Applied Risk Analysis: Moving Beyond Uncertainty in Business, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2004, pp. 184-234.

10:00 – 10:15 Break

10:15 – 12:00 Parameterization of Risk Variables in Toll Roads


• Lecture Notes

12:00 – 13:00 Lunch

13:00 – 15:00 M-12 Toll Road Risk Analysis

• Handout of Risk Analysis of M-12 Toll Road Project • PPP Issue: Dealing with Traffic Risk

15:00 – 15:15 Break

15:15 – 18:00 M-12 Toll Road Risk Management


May 11 - 29, 2009

17

WEEK 3, DAY 5

FRIDAY, MAY 29 08:30 – 10:00 Managing Contingent Liabilities


• H. Polackova (1998), Government Contingent Liabilities: A Hidden Risk to Fiscal Stability, Policy Research Working paper, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, Europe and Central Asia, The World Bank, pp. 1-8.

• Hemming Richard, “Chapter 2: Government Guarantees and Fiscal Risk,” Public-Private Partnerships, Government Guarantees, and Fiscal Risk. International Monetary Fund, Washington DC, 2006.

• Baldwin C., Lessard D. and Mason S. (1983), Budgetary Time Bombs: Controlling Government Loan Guarantees, Canadian Public Policy – Analyse de Politiques, XI:3:338-346, Canada.

10:00 – 10:15 Break

10:15 – 12:00 Presentation Preparations M-12 Toll Road Economic, Stakeholder and Risk Analysis

12:00 – 13:00 Lunch

13:00 – 15:00 Participants Presentation M-12 Toll Road Economic and Risk Analysis

15:00 – 15:15 Break

15:00 – 18:00

Closing ceremony

END OF THE PROGRAM

SSCCHHEEDDUULLEE

Program on The Appraisal of Infrastructor Projects

with Private Participation

May 11 - 29, 2009

1 of 3

WEEK 1 May 11 May 12 May 13 May 14 May 15 May 16

MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY SATURDAY

Economic Opportunity Cost of

Capital for PPPs

08:30

Integrated Investment Appraisal for PPPs

Micro-Economics I for Economic Valuation Principles Underlying the

Economic Analysis of Projects Economic Cost of

Foreign Financing Economic

Economic Valuation of Project Outputs in Non-

Competitive Markets (Electricity, Water and Telecommunication)

Economic Cost of Foreign Exchange

10:00 Break Break Break Break Break Break Principles Underlying the

Economic Analysis of Projects (Cont’d)

10:15 Alternative Investment

Criteria and Estimation and Use of Debt Service Ratios

for PPP projects

Micro-Economics II for Economic Valuation Application to evaluation of

electricity and Industrial sites

Economic Prices and Conversion factors for Tradable Inputs and

Outputs

Measurement of Economic Prices for Non-Tradable Inputs

and Outputs

Stakeholder Analysis

(Transportation, and Port Projects)

12:00 Lunch Lunch Lunch Lunch Lunch Lunch Case Study: Application of

Integrated Project Appraisal for Evaluation of Privatization

Prospects: Manila Metropolitan Waterworks and Sewerage

Systems

13:00

Discussion and Analysis of Case 1:

Alternative Investment Criteria

Assignment on Measurement of Willingness to Pay and Economic Resource Costs

SAMZ Water Project: Sensitivity Analysis

Measurement of Economics Values of Tradable Goods for

SAMZ Water Project

Measurement of Economics Values of

Water Services of Different Qualities for SAMZ Water Project

15:00 Break Break Break Break Break Break

15:15

18:00

Assignment: Alternative Investment

Criteria

SAMZ Water Project Modelling for Financial

Analysis

Participant Presentation of Financial and

Sensitivity Analysis: SAMZ Water Project

Measurement of Economics Values of Tradable Goods for

SAMZ Water Project

Measurement of Economics Values of

Water Services of Different Qualities for SAMZ Water Project



May 11 - 29, 2009

2 of 3

WEEK 2

May 18 May 19 May 20 May 21 May 22 May 23

MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY SATURDAY

08:30

Cost and Benefit of Electricity Investments

Public Private Partnerships: The Public

Sector Comparator

Project Finance and Managing Project Risks

Project Contractual Structure

Project Finance and Loan Agreements

Preparation for Participants

Presentation on Economic and

Stakeholder Analysis of Bright Light Electricity Co.


10:15 Presentation on

“Appraisal of El-Kureimat Combined Cycle Power Plant”

Elements of Project Finance

Security Arrangements

Limited Recourse Financing of the Sofia Water System

Concession: Dealing with Risks

Lenders Financial Model

Participants Presentation of Economic and

Stakeholder Analysis of Bright Light Electricity

Generation Project 12:00 Lunch Lunch Lunch Lunch Lunch Lunch

13:00 Stakeholder Analysis

of SAMZ Water Project

Participants Presentation of Analysis:

Economic and Stakeholder Analysis: SAMZ Water Project

Financial Analysis of Bright Light Electricity

Generation Project

Structure and Overview of Economic Analysis of

Bright Light Electricity Generation Project

Structure and Overview of Stakeholder

Analysis of Bright Light Electricity

Generation Project


15:15

18:00

Stakeholder Analysis of

SAMZ Water Project

Structure and Overview of Financial Analysis of Bright Light Electricity

Generation Project

Participants Presentation of Financial Analysis of Bright Light Electricity

Project

Economic Analysis of Bright Light Electricity

Generation Project

Review



May 11 - 29, 2009

3 of 3

WEEK 3

May 25 May 26 May 27 May 28 May 29

MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY

08:30 Participant Evaluations

Costs and Benefits of Transportation Investment

Cost Effectiveness

Parameterization of Risk Managing Contingent Liabilities

10:00 Break Break Break Break Break

10:15

Economic Opportunity Cost of Labor

Presentation of a case on Road Upgrading


Parameterization of Risk Variables in Toll Roads

Presentation Preparations M-12 Toll Road

Economic, Stakeholder and Risk Analysis

12:00 Lunch Lunch Lunch Lunch Lunch

13:00

Structure and Overview of M-12 Toll Road Financial Analysis

M-12 Toll Road Financial Analysis: Financing Units, Exchange Rates and

Toll Design


M-12 Toll Road Risk Analysis

Participants Presentation M-12 Toll Road Economic

and Risk Analysis

15:00 Break Break Break Break Break

15:15

18:00

M-12 Toll Road Financial Analysis: Traffic Demand and

Toll Design

Participants Presentation M-12 Toll Road Financial and Risk

Analysis

M-12 Toll Road Stakeholder Analysis

M-12 Toll Road Risk Management Closing ceremony

The Program on the Appraisal of Infrastructure Projects with - ppiaf

Documents

Transcript of The Program on the Appraisal of Infrastructure Projects with - ppiaf