The process of gaining knowledge about the universe through the observation of measurable evidence. Eggs Are Nearly as Bad for Your Arteries as Cigarettes The Media: not a great resource exaggerate and over-simplify Study of the Day: A Diet Loaded With Sugar Makes Rats Dumber New & conflicting studies reported daily always consider the following points: Quality of the study and design of study Who funded the study? One individual study vs. meta-analysis Meta-analysis: A review process that involves a statistical analysis of several previously published studies, providing quantification and the strongest evidence available on a topic. Often not put into perspective Study performed in a lab, but can it be generalized to the real world? 1. Observational (epidemiological) 2. Experimental Studies large populations to find relationships between two variables. Epidemiological Research is usually observational : Study of the distribution and determinants of diseases or health outcomes in human populations. Examples: Saturated fat intake and heart disease Sodium intake and high blood pressure Obesity and Type 2 Diabetes Two main techniques used in Epidemiological Research: Retrospective techniques: Compare diets of those with a disease to a similar group (cohort) of those without a disease Prospective techniques: Diets of individuals without a disease are studied for years and then related to those who do and do not develop the disease E.g. Nurses Health Study It does show an important relationship between 2 variables i.e. diet and health It does not establish cause and effect relationship between the 2 variables Essential to establishing a cause & effect relationship Cause and effect Independent variable cause (Diet) Dependent variable effect (Heart disease) Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) Conditions for best experimental research Gold Standard Randomization of subjects Control (placebo) condition Treatment group vs. control group Double-blind procedure Studies on sports performance Mostly laboratory studies Some designed to mimic actual sports performance. BUT, few studies during actual competition. Abstract = summary Introduction = Gives background States purpose and hypothesis Methods = how study was conducted study design Who participants, inclusion/exclusion criteria Where - lab, clinic, field What/How Treatment, materials Data analysis Results = what was found statistical significance, p value (p < 0.05) clinically significant? Conclusion = what the results indicate Discussion = insight, application, strengths & limitations, future research recommendations References Scientific Research Method Development of Mathematical Models Applying these methods to completing an MS Thesis or a Ph.D. Thesis Scientific Research 1: investigation or experimentation aimed at the discovery and interpretation of facts, revision of accepted theories or laws in the light of new facts, or practical application of such new or revised theories or laws 2 : the collecting of information about a particular subject Scientific Method of Research Four Steps: If the experiments prove the hypothesis to be true, it becomes a theory or law of nature. If the experiments prove the hypothesis to be false, the hypothesis must be rejected or modified. The scientific method used properly should give us predictive power (to understand phenomena which have not been tested). False True Test Hypothesis Observation an act of recognizing and noting a fact or occurrence often involving measurement with instruments Experiments performed in the laboratory. Experiments gained from knowledge of the literature. Keys to Implementation in your Research: Sorting Observations (from Literature Searches): UsefulNot Useful (Yet!) Contains unanswered questions which you think you have means of addressing Proclaims research has explained everything (does not contain unanswered questions) Note Results (in report format- optional) for future use in confirming/denying your hypothesis (once your hypothesis is found)! Formulate Hypothesis! Hypothesis tentative assumption made in order to draw out and test its logical or empirical consequences Example, Hypothesis of author Anton (UTRC paper) : Ionic radius of Ti4+ enhances desorption kinetics. Observation in Paper by Anton et al.: NaAlH4 doped with Ti4+, Ti3+ and Ti2+ have different ionic radii, but the same rate of enhanced H2 desorption kinetics. New Hypothesis in Paper by Anton (not tested by Anton, et al.): Ti2+, Ti3+ and Ti4+ adopt the same oxidation state after entering the NaAlH4 structure. Keys to Implementation in your Research: Good Hypothesis can be TESTED with Experiment or Calculation. This requires A LOT of thought and reading--- leap from observation to hypothesis. It is worth the effort because after thinking this through, you are ready to go into the laboratory (which is the FUN part of research)! Suggestions (no one can tell you HOW to do this, you have to develop this skill): 1.Couple archival journal reading with your in-class theory. 2.Couple archival journal reading with your common sense or intuition about the way things should be in the system that you are studying. 3.Follow a logical reasoning about what you are reading with scientific and/or mathematical basis (use drawings and diagrams to help your understanding). 4.Write up your thoughts and opinions either in report format (or in a way which you can follow within one notebook). Experimental Testing to be assigned a standing or evaluation on the basis of tests 2 : to apply a test as a means of analysis or diagnosis Example, New Hypothesis: Ti2+, Ti3+ and Ti4+ adopt the same oxidation state after entering the NaAlH4 structure. Test: EXAFS Absorption spectroscopy can measure bond length and # of bonds. We may dope NaAlH4 with Ti2+, Ti3+ and Ti4+ and measure bond length of each. If they are the same, then they have all assumed one oxidation state after entering the structure (and we can measure this oxidation state also using EXAFS by determining the # of bonds). Keys to Implementation in your Research: Good TESTS will prove or disprove your hypothesis. Experimental Tests can be performed within the realm of computing. (e.g. Coventor model with calculations and predictions can serve as experiment and model). Consider all alternatives. Experiment may not disprove all (but may disprove only parts) of your hypothesis. That is still alright to perform. Carefully note which aspects of your hypothesis this experiment will test. Consider the availability of instrumentation to perform your tests. Suggestions: See IfM website for list of available equipment. If you do not know (or have never heard of it), learn about that equipment, what it measures, what it can fabricate, what is does, etc. (For nearly ALL Characterization Techniques, see Metals Handbook, Volume 10 (LATECH call #: REFERENCE-- TA459.A5) Ask questions! Schedule meetings with appropriate people in charge of equipment to inquire about capabilities and terms/conditions for use. Predictions to declare or indicate in advance; especially : foretell on the basis of observation, experience, or scientific reason Example, Test: EXAFS Absorption spectroscopy can measure bond length and # of bonds. We may dope NaAlH4 with Ti2+, Ti3+ and Ti4+ and measure bond length of each. If they are the same, then they have all assumed one oxidation state after entering the structure (and we can measure this oxidation state also using EXAFS by determining the # of bonds). Prediction 1: If Ti2+, Ti3+ and Ti4+ gain equivalent oxidation states after entering the structure, then the same should be true for Co2+, Co3+, and Co4+ (or any other metal dopant). or Prediction 2: If Ti2+, Ti3+ and Ti4+ gain equivalent oxidation states after entering the structure via ball-milling, then the same should be true for Ti2+, Ti3+, and Ti4+ after entering the structure via chemical precipitation from Na+, Al3+, and Ti?+ salt solutions. Keys to Implementation in your Research: Good Predictions can also be tested against your hypothesis. Consider going back to the basics (textbook theory) to development of a mathematical model/construct which will help to make predictions about more systems than you can reasonably test. Suggestions: You may begin thinking about predictions as soon as you have a hypothesis, however, if your hypothesis is proven false, your prediction will also fail! Use mathematical model to test your prediction. Mathematical Models Empirical vs. Deterministic Examples, Test: EXAFS Absorption spectroscopy data is in hand. Prediction 1: If Ti2+, Ti3+ and Ti4+ gain equivalent oxidation states after entering the structure, then the same should be true for Co2+, Co3+, and Co4+ (or any other metal dopant). Model: We use FEFF8.0, WINXAFS to fit the XAFS equation to measured data --- varying types of neighboring species (e.g. neighbors may be 2 Na atoms and 1 Al atom or 3 Al atoms and 1 Na atom). bond length and # of bonds (coordination number) until we have a good fit. We did not know what environment our Ti atom was in prior to model fitting, now, we have modeled our system to match our data. Our model is then made up of the XAFS equation, bond lengths, and # of bonds. Keys to Implementation in your Research: All thesis experiments should have empirical models (at least). If do not have a mathematical model--- only data, then we need to find an equation for which we can perform least squares fitting your data. My suggestion: If you run into an interesting hypothesis which can be tested via deterministic models (first principles approach), meet with IfM modeling faculty (Mainerdi, Paun, Hegab or DeRosa) to discuss the hypothesis and modeling. EmpiricalDeterministic Based on experimental observation (e.g. least squares curve fitting, coventor MEMS calculations, XAFS FEFF8.0 Analysis) Based on first principles approach! (e.g. Monte Carlo calculations, Density Functional Theory, Molecular Dynamics, Computational Fluid Dynamics) Know what has been done by others. Do not reinvent the wheel unnecessarily!!! Understand your field. This qualifies you to make reasonable hypothesis about fundamental advances in the field. Do not strive to solve all problems in the field, look for small advances in your field. Small advancements lead to critical developments. Prepare to report results even if hypothesis fails. False hypothesis are also advancements in science (and will save others time and money on repeating these experiments). Failed hypothesis should also be used to make suggestions for future directions (making you and EXPERT since you can suggest new directions in your field!!!). What do I need to do to Complete a Thesis Option??? Perform 1 iteration of the Scientific Method!!! Observation Hypothesis Experimental Test Prediction --- then you may STOP (You do not need to test predictions in order to successfully write your thesis). Your thesis should, however, include a reporting of your predictions under the heading Suggestions for Future Work. If you complete one iteration within 5 weeks, then you should go further. Ph.D. Thesis should have publishable results from iterations of the Scientific Method!!! Good Luck and Happy Researching!!! What is the scientific method? What does the scientific method assume? Does the scientific method work? What is not a scientific argument. Does astrology follow the scientific method? Science is a tool. Medicine: I have high cholesterol, what should I do? Take cholesterol lowering medication. Consult your astrologer. Pray to the god Baal and sacrifice a goat. 1. Observe an event. 2. Develop a model (or hypothesis ) which makes a prediction. 3. Test the prediction. 4. Observe the result. 5. Revise the hypothesis. 6. Repeat as needed. 7. A successful hypothesis becomes a Scientific Theory. model test Scientific MethodHigh Cholesterol ObservationPatient has high cholesterol Hypothesis (prediction) Certain chemicals may dissolve cholesterol deposits. TestGive 100 patients these chemicals, give 100 patients placebo. Observe resultSame number lower their cholesterol as placebo patients. Revise hypothesis?Try different combo of chemicals. New test?Re-run medical test. Observe results. Scientific TheoryLipitor reduces cholesterol. Scientific MethodCar Repair ObservationEngine wont turn over. Hypothesis (prediction)Predict battery is dead. TestReplace battery. Observe resultEngine now turns over. Revise hypothesis?Not needed. New test?Not needed. Scientific TheoryCars wont work without a fully charged battery. Scientific MethodMaking Spaghetti Sauce ObservationSpaghetti sauce should be red. Hypothesis (prediction)Try a tomato sauce. TestHeat pot of tomato sauce. Observe resultTaste the sauce - bland. Revise hypothesis?Use tomato sauce and garlic! New test?Add garlic, taste - not so bland. Scientific TheoryThe Final Recipe. Throwing something together Hypothesis Your grandmothers time-tested recipe Scientific Theory. A successful theory is repeatable. By you. By anyone. Examples: Cold Fusion (1989) Ecstasy (Science, 2003) Objective reality We all see the same world. Constant Laws of Nature What happens here, happens there. What happened yesterday will happen tomorrow. The Cosmos is knowable. Scientific Method is a tool. Does this tool work? Life expectancy Mortality rates Are there better tools? What does the word Theory mean to you? A conjecture; guess (Websters Dictionary) Does it mean the same to a scientist? A model which has been born out by repeated tests and observation. Is a Theory less than a Law? Evolution is just a theory, it is not a fact. Do Theories grow up to be Laws? Einsteins Theory of Relativity So: a theory is a highly successful hypothesis. All hypotheses make predictions. All theories make predictions. All theories can be tested. Result: Any scientific theory is subject to change as our ability to make tests, or make observations of a tests results, improves with time. Make no predictions Un-testable Cant be falsified Car wont work? Aliens drained the battery. Spaghetti is bland? You were meant to eat bland food. Car wont work? Gods must be angry. Spaghetti is bland? At the instant of tasting, tongue is transported to alternate dimension where all flavors are rendered nullified. Happens instantaneously. The chain of events needed for life to arise is too complicated to have happened by chance, a divine intelligence must therefore have caused life to arise (Intelligent Design). Face on Mars. Viking Orbiter (1976)Mars Global Surveyor (1998) A real Scientific Theory tells you what observations are necessary to falsify it. Not so proponents of: Face on Mars Moon Hoax Intelligent Design Astrologers