The Problems facing us:Global Warming - Energy Security

Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICEEnergy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation Centre

School of Environmental Sciences

CPRE - 28th July 2005

CRed

Meeting our Future Energy Needs

Future Global Warming RatesConcentration of C02 in Atmosphere

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

(ppm

)

Total winter precipitation Total summer precipitation

Source: Tim

Osborne, C

RU

Change in precipitation 1961-2001

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.51860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000T

emp

erat

ure

Ris

e (o C

)

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.51860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Tem

per

atu

re R

ise

(o C)

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.51860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Tem

per

atu

re R

ise

(o C)

Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office

actual

actual

actual

predicted

predicted

predictedIs Global Warming man made?

Prediction: Anthropogenic only

Not a good match between 1920 and 1970

Prediction: Natural only

good match until 1960

Prediction: Natural and Anthropogenic

Generally a good match

Predictions include:

• Greenhouse Gas emissions

• Sulphates and ozone

• Solar and volcanic activity

20031979

Climate ChangeArctic meltdown 1979 - 2003

• Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region– Nasa satellite

imagery

Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

•20% reduction in 24 years

• Cumulative Production to 31st December 2004

– 3005 Mtonnes

• Average Annual consumption 2000 – 2004: ~ 100 Mtonnes

• Remaining Reserves

– Minimum 533 Mtonnes

– Maximum 2412 Mtonnes

• Remaining Life (No exports)

– Minimum 5.33 years

– Maximum 24.12 years

UK Oil Production

Oil Production and Exports

-150

-100

-50

-

50

100

150

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Mto

nn

es

Production

Exports

• Cumulative Production to 31st December 2004

– 1921 billion cubic metres (bcm)

• Average Annual consumption 2000 – 2004: ~ 100 bcm

• Remaining Reserves

– Minimum 531 bcm

– Maximum 1169 bcm

• Remaining Life (No exports)

– Minimum 5.31 years

– Maximum 11.69.12 years

UK Gas Production

Gas Consumption and Trade

-200

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000T

Wh

Production

Trade

Became net importer in 2004

Winter 2004/2005 ~10% of consumption was imported

1500

1700

1900

2100

2300

2500

2700

2900

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

No

n E

lec

tric

Fu

el C

on

su

mp

tio

n (

TW

h)

Business as usual ~ 2.3% compound Growth

1.5% compound Growth

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Ele

ctri

city

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n (

TW

h)

Non-Electric Fuel Consumption

Current GDP growth is ~2.3% per annum

At 1.5% growth in economy

> a 10.2% reduction in CO2

At 1.9%

Constant level of emissions

Will require a 2.2% reduction in fuel use per annum to get 60% reduction on 1990 levels by 2050.

Electricity Consumption

Current GDP growth is ~2.3% per annum

• GDP growth would have to be ~1.15% for no change in demand.

• Change in fuel mix will have a more dominant effect.

•? Would a reduction in GDP to this level by itself provide necessary technical impetus? Or would the energy ratio increase?

Economic Growth CAN be associated with a reduction in Fuel Use

Government Response

• Energy White Paper – aspiration for 60% cut in CO2 emissions by 2050

• Will require unprecedented partnership activity in

local communities to ensure on track by 2020s

• (– but no indication of how this will be

undertaken)

“There will be much more local generation, in part from medium to small local/community power plant, fuelled by locally grown biomass, from locally generated waste, and from local wind sources. These will feed local distributed networks, which can sell excess capacity into the grid.’’

- Energy White Paper: February 2003

How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?

5 hot air balloons per person per year.

900 000 party balloons each year

On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.

"Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he could do only a little."

Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

Some facts:

A mobile phone charger left on even when not charging

up to 20 kg CO2 a year (200 party balloons)

Standby on television > 60 kg per year

Filling up with petrol (~£35 for a full tank)

--------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon )

How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1300 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour?

1.6 miles or 25 party balloons

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods

Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)

available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade

~ 2p + but recent trends put figure

much higher

nuclear fission (long term)

0 - 60% (France 80%) - (currently 20 - 25% and falling)

new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed

2.5 - 3.5p

nuclear fusion unavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest

"Clean Coal"

Traditional Coal falling rapidly -

coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020

Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration

2.5 - 3.5p - but will EU - ETS affect

this

potential contribution to

Electricity Supply in 2020

costs in 2020

Difficult Choices Ahead

On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation

~ 2p

Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential

2.5 - 3p

Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers

Cost in2020

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly

10+ p

Energy Crops 100% + available, but research needed insome areas

2.5 - 4

On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation

~ 2p

Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential

2.5 - 3p

Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers

Cost in2020

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

Transport Fuels:

• Biodiesel?

• Bioethanol?

Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly

10+ p

Energy Crops 100% + available, but research needed insome areas

2.5 - 4

Wave/TidalStream

100% + techology limited - extensivedevelopment unlikely before 2020

4 - 8p

Tidal Barrages 10 - 20% technology available but unlikelywithout Government intervention

notcosted

Geothermal unlikely for electricity generationbefore 2050 if then

On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation

~ 2p

Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential

2.5 - 3p

Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers

Cost in2020

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project

Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh

Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004

House in Lerwick, Shetland Isles

- less than 15,000 people live north of this in UK!

It is all very well for South East, but what about the North?

Meeting our Future Energy Needs

Major Changes in the Energy Supply Industries

• 1987 British Gas privatised• 1990 Electricity Industry Privatised – some deregulation• 1990’s Various Tranches of Non Fossil Fuel Obligation• 1997-1999 Full deregulation of Gas and Electricity Markets• 2001 NETA – New Electricity Trading Arrangements• 2002 Renewables Obligation • 2005 1st January EU-ETS (Emission Trading System)• 2005 1st April BETTA

Many of these are moving Electricity Generation away from centralised generation to localised generation.

• We need– A Low Carbon Future– Energy Security

• Decisions need to be made very soon

• Above objectives can be achieved by– Individuals taking action to reduce demand– Legislation– Exploitation of Energy Resources consistent with carbon reduction

and Energy Security

• Options not available except at research level for 20+years– Carbon Sequestration– Tidal Stream/Wave– Hydrogen as a Fuel

• We need to consider what our energy vector should be

Meeting our Future Energy Needs