The problem definition and the research design in TA: the case of e-mobility

António Moniz

ITAS-Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany

FCT-Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Portugal

Summary

1. Defining a problem for TA

2. Requests towards TA institutions

3. From request to problem definition

4. Designing the research process according to the problem

5. Case study: e-mobility

6. Controversial cases

7. Concluding remarks

1. Defining a problem for TA - 1

TA as a problem-oriented research approach: •Social relevance for problems and practice of technology-induced risks • Relation to reflexivity / policy advice•Inter- and transdisciplinarity / methods•Normativity / evaluation frame

1. Defining a problem for TA - 2

Defining a research problem:•Is crucial in defining the quality of the answers, and determines the exact research method used. •A quantitative experimental design uses deductive reasoning to arrive at a testable hypothesis. A qualitative research designs use inductive reasoning to propose a research statement.

– literature review and – a study of previous experiments– hypothesis– operational definition is the – determining the scalar properties of the variables.

2. Requests made towards TA institutions - 1

• What are the (types of) requests made towards TA institutions?– Functional distinction between institutions of PTA and

institutions of research focused on TA – Institutional varieties in Europe – ITAS/TAB, ITA, DTB,

Rathenau, etc.– …consortia, joint-ventures, cultural approaches,

organisational traditions

• PACITA project is focused on PTA - Policy advice and its procedures

2. Requests made towards TA institutions - 2

Demanding TA expertise:•Whose groups order TA studies/processes?

– Members of Parliament (PTA)– Municipal councils– Companies or enterpreneurial associations– ONG

•Who are the addressees of the knowledge produced through TA studies/processes?

– Policy makers– General public or specific public branches– Researchers and academics– Public administration

3. From request to problem definition - 1

• How is a social/political problem, and request formulated, framed, defined and translated into a research/debate stimulating/TA problem definition?

• What are the expected deliverables and outcomes?– Reports– Hearings– Science dissemination– Etc.

3. From request to problem definition - 2

• TAB – German Parliament– TAB is an independent

scientific institution created with the objective of advising the German Bundestag and its committees on matters relating to research and technology.

– expert-based advise

• Rathenau Inst. (Netherlands)– Promotes the formation of

political and public opinion on science and technology.

– Studies the science systems, publishes about social impact of new technologies, and organizes public debates.

– public awareness

3. From request to problem definition - 3

• Problem definition of TA based on:– Methodological issues– Social and/or political frameworks– Cultural settings

HypothesisDefinition of problems depends on its context and on

the normative conditions where the issues of the problem are imbedded.

Different institutional settings imply different TA methods and different approaches.

4. Designing the research process according to the problem - 1

Research design

•The research problem determines the type of design to be used. It is not the design that determines the problem.•The research design is a strategy that is chosen to integrate the different components of the study in a coherent way in order to address the research problem.•Specification of methods and procedures for collecting, measuring and analyzing the needed information.

4. Designing the research process according to the problem - 2

• Extensive description and analysis of the technologies and applications regarded

• Evaluation of the described technologies, applications and development scenarios

• Analysis based on ecological, economic and social aspects• Overall assessment of technology • Analysis of its potentials • Conclusions

4. Designing the research process according to the problem - 3

Types of Research Designs:

•Exploratory•Descriptive•Causal

– Note that research does not necessarily follow the order (1st) exploratory, (2nd) descriptive, and (3rd) causal designs.

– All can be used in TA studies– We can also consider: Action Research, Case Studies, Experimental,

Exploratory, Longitudinal, Observational research

4. Designing the research process according to the problem - 4

• Exploratory research is unstructured, informal research undertaken to gain background information about the general nature of the research problem.

• Uses of exploratory research include:1. Gain background information.2. Define terms.3. Clarify problems and hypotheses.4. Establish research and policy priorities.

4. Designing the research process according to the problem - 5

Conducting Exploratory Research

•Secondary data analysis. – Secondary data refers to the process of searching for and interpreting

existing info relevant to the research problem (e.g., census data, articles in journals, newspapers, etc.).

•Experience (Expert) surveys. – Refers to gathering info from those thought to be knowledgeable on the

issues relevant to the problem (i.e., ask experts).•Case Analysis.

– Uses past situations that are similar to the present research problem.•Focus groups.

– Involves small (8-12) groups of people brought together and guided by a moderator through unstructured, spontaneous discussion.

4. Designing the research process according to the problem - 6

• Descriptive research provides answers to the questions of who, what, when, where, and how.

• We cannot conclusively ascertain answers to WHY using descriptive studies.

• Descriptive studies can be of two varieties (i.e., classifications):– Cross-sectional– Longitudinal

4. Designing the research process according to the problem - 7

Causal Research•Causality may be thought of as understanding a phenomenon in terms of conditional statements of the form, “If X, then Y.” •Conditions for causality are:

– Concomitant Variation: For variable X to cause a change in variable Y, the two must be highly related in that changes in Y are always associated with changes in X.

– Temporal Precedence: Refers to the time sequence of occurrence. For variable X to cause Y, it must always occur before or precede Y.

– Absence of Competing Explanations: For X to cause Y, other possible causes must be ruled out, as chance and extraneous variables

4. Designing the research process according to the problem - 8

Research Methods

•Citizen consultation•Stakeholder involvement•Expert analysis•Advisory function•Public debate and hearings

4. Designing the research process according to the problem - 9Procedure description (case 5 DBT)

• The most important planning task is to identify the angles on the problem which are vested with the greatest interest, both politically and socially.

• Once the task has been solved, the relevant hearing experts must be identified.

• The parliamentary committee can then approve the programme and the hearing can get underway.

• At the conclusion of the hearing, the politicians can outline their points or views in relation to the tabled topic. However, the political treatment of the topic often does not take place until after the hearing, i.e. in the further work of the committee/and or Parliament.

• Dialogue between politicians and experts can benefit politicians, but it can also force experts to present their research findings and inaccessible knowledge in a form that lay people understand. In this way, the hearing can help to improve the communication of expert knowledge to the public.

4. Designing the research process according to the problem - 9„Classical“ (causal) procedures (Case 2 NSF)

• 1. Examine problem statements

• 2. Specify systems alternatives

• 3. Identify possible impacts

• 4. Evaluate impacts

• 5. Identify the decision apparatus

• 6. Identify action options for decision apparatus

• 7. Identify parties at interest

• 8. Identify macrosystem alternatives (other routes to goal)

• 9. Identify exogenous variables or events possibly having an effect on 1–8

• 10. Draw conclusions and recommendations

5. Case studies related with e-mobility - 1

What is e-mobility about?

•E-mobility as a TA multi-dimensional topic– Carbon-based fuel, environment, sustainability concepts– Behaviour change and consumers attitudes – Electrical vehicles

• Automobile• Pedelec & e-bikes• Buses• Tram• Train

– Transport of passengers (urban, regional)– Electricity supply network– Urban design– Institutions and actors

5. Case studies related with e-mobility - 2OTA topics (related with e-mobility)http://www.princeton.edu/~ota • Alternative fuels• Automobiles and automobile

industry• Business and industry• Climate change• Competitiveness• Economic development• Electric power• Energy efficiency

• Energy technology• International relations and

technology transfer• Materials• Research and development• Science and technology• Transportation

5. Case studies related with e-mobility - 2EPTA topics (related with e-mobility)http://eptanetwork.org/projects.php?sorter=1

• Energy Efficiency (UK)• Hybrid and electric vehicles in Poland

(PL)• Access to public transport and mobility

in Poland (PL)• Electric mobility concepts and their

significance for economy, society, environment (DE)

• The future of the automotive industry (DE)

• Electric vehicles (UK)• Opportunities and risks of

electromobility in Switzerland (CH)

• Sustainable cities - with focus on transport, housing and green areas (SE)

• A Sustainable Danish Transport System (DK)

• Intelligent and innovative transportation systems (IITS) (BE-FL)

• Intelligent transport systems (UK)• Future urban transport (NO)• Hydrogen: the discussion (BE-FL)• Road Traffic and Health (BE-FL)• Transport biofuels (UK)

6. Controversial cases - 1

Selected cases

•With TA studies– Electric vehicles (POST note No. 365, 2010)

• focuses on the extent to which EVs could reduce carbon emissions and examines issues that would surround widespread uptake

– Electric mobility concepts (TAB)– Sustainable Danish Transport System (DBT)

•Without TA studies– Karlsruhe tram-train system– MOBI-e (Portugal)

6. Controversial cases - 2Electric mobility concepts and their significance for the economy, society and the environment - TAB

• Conclusions and recommendations derived for the further development and promotion of electric mobility in Germany.

• The following steps are planned: – foundations for a comprehensive evaluation of electric mobility– basis for well-informed political decisions– evaluation of the described technologies, applications and

development scenarios based on ecological, economic and social aspects

– overall assessment of electric mobility and its potentials and conclusions

6. Controversial cases - 3A Sustainable Danish Transport System (DBT)• The project (2010-2011) was made in collaboration with a group of experts and

stakeholders from the transport sector to evaluate what it will take – in terms of technology, organisation and planning – for the transport system to alter to a 100% renewable energy (RE), and what the consequences are for everyday life of the citizens, the welfare and the society as a hole.

• The project uses scenario calculations. The scenarios are based on how much mobility that can be achieved through a certain amount of energy that will be available for the transport sector. The amount of biomass is limited to the amount that can be produced in Denmark. Besides this, there is a wish that the transformation has to be economically and that the mobility shouldn’t be reduced.

• The project aims at identifying which decisions and activities are necessary on a short and medium term to convert the transport sector to RE in 2050. This is done in dialogue with stakeholders and politicians.

• http://www.tekno.dk/subpage.php3?article=1782&toppic=kategori11&language=uk

6. Controversial cases – 4Karlsruhe tram-train system: the starting problems

• The city traffic needs to be connected with the regional traffic by interfaces, but is not intertwined.

• This system presented itself for decades as the main public transport model for metropolitan areas.

• There was the problem to be able to attract new customers, because the transition from train to tram or vice versa scared many potential passengers.

• The new S-Bahn networks were originated in large German cities such as Munich, Frankfurt and Stuttgart, although creating direct links between the city and surrounding areas, had a serious disadvantage: the high cost, because inner-city routes are had been created in tunnel and existing lines expansion often amounted to new building. The "classic" tram hardly had a place in these concepts, whose networks have shrunk in many places or completely disappeared.

6. Controversial cases – 5The „Karlsruhe model“

• Train to train tracks were laid on the railway's own body, so that today about 80 percent of the network are independent of motorized transport.

• In addition, the tram was an acceleration program with 'built-in right of way'. At most traffic lights, the tram driver 'Get Green' and bring his car quickly through the city.

• Such powerful modern railway network was in turn a prerequisite for what was later labelled worldwide as the 'Karlsruhe model': the combination of existing railway lines to the network of trams and the development of a special generation light rail.– A link between the train lines and the tram network was about to be achieved, but

turned out the problem of different power systems. The tram runs on 750 volts direct current, while the DB 15,000 volts, 16 2/3 Hz AC use. To drive a vehicle on both networks, the VBK / AVG developed, in collaboration with the electronics group ABB, a light rail trolley system with changer.

– From the first test rides in the summer of 1986 between Karlsruhe and Worth, it took another five years before the two-system light rail cars were delivered.

6. Controversial cases – 6MOBI-e (Portugal)

• The development of MOBI.E started back in 2008 and faced the need to develop both the software and the hardware required for the system deployment.

• MOBI.E is an open model suitable for any business model and market format. Is an integrator of systems that is able to overcome the lack of communication among the existing initiatives in different parts of the world.

• It was designed to be implemented everywhere in a system of systems approach, thus overcoming the lack of communication between the different existing systems, independently of the country.

6. Controversial cases – 7 The MOBI-e network

• When concluded, the pilot network will have – 1,300 normal charging points – charging a battery fully in 6-8 hours – in 25 municipalities all around the country and – 50 quick charging points – charging a battery at 80% in 15-20 minutes– located in the most important motorways in order to mitigate range-anxiety and

make travelling possible.

• In addition, any Operator can join the system and invest in charging stations, adding up to the initial infrastructure.

• Partners:– EDP (energy) and Magnum Cap (charging solutions)– Siemens (home charging); EFACEC (smart-grid), Critical Software

(communication), Novabase (management platform)– Inteli, CEIIA, Rener, Remobi (R&D)

7. Concluding remarks - 1

• Involvement of different stakeholders (transport services, energy providers, R&D experts)

• Political involvement and decision process• Interdisciplinarity of the approach:

– Consumers behaviours– Urban planning– Electric network supply system– Transport engineering

• Rising the awareness of social and economical problems on technology available choices

• Major public interest

7. Concluding remarks - 2

• Importance of contextual and normative conditions• Different ways of methodological assessments

• Open processes:

TA as a mean to increase reflexivity on society and technology

Thank you for your attention

• António B. Moniz• abm@fct.unl.pt• antonio.moniz@kit.edu