The Primary SystemThe Primary System

Presidential Presidential Party Nomination Party Nomination SystemsSystems

““King Caucus”: 1800-1828King Caucus”: 1800-1828

Convention System: 1832-1912Convention System: 1832-1912

Mixed System: 1912-1968Mixed System: 1912-1968

Primary System: 1972-???Primary System: 1972-???

McGovern Fraser McGovern Fraser Commission: Commission: Changes to Changes to

Democratic Party RulesDemocratic Party Rules Anti-discrimination provisionsAnti-discrimination provisions Explicit party rules and open party meetingsExplicit party rules and open party meetings Bans the UNIT RULEBans the UNIT RULE

– Unit rule: the practice of apportioning Unit rule: the practice of apportioning delegates in a winner-take-all fashiondelegates in a winner-take-all fashion

Encourages broad and open participation in Encourages broad and open participation in delegate selection processdelegate selection process

Mandates that minorities’ opinions be fairly Mandates that minorities’ opinions be fairly weighted in delegate selection processweighted in delegate selection process

Bans the automatic delegate-status of party Bans the automatic delegate-status of party officials and elected officeholdersofficials and elected officeholders

Number of states Number of states holding holding primary electionsprimary elections

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

4045

1912 1920 1928 1936 1944 1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000

Democrats Republicans

Percent of Party Percent of Party Convention Delegates Convention Delegates Chosen by PrimariesChosen by Primaries

010203040

5060708090

1912 1920 1928 1936 1944 1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000

Democrats Republicans

Some delegates still Some delegates still chosen by other meanschosen by other means Caucus:Caucus:

– A Meeting where any affiliated voter A Meeting where any affiliated voter can come and express their opinionscan come and express their opinions

State convention:State convention:– Local party groups select delegates to Local party groups select delegates to

state party convention. State state party convention. State convention delegates select convention delegates select delegates to national nominating delegates to national nominating convention.convention.

Consequences of Party Consequences of Party ReformReform Increase in number of primariesIncrease in number of primaries Increase in importance of mediaIncrease in importance of media

– (And hence the importance of early (And hence the importance of early primaries!)primaries!)

Consequences of Party Consequences of Party ReformReform Increase in number of primariesIncrease in number of primaries Increase in importance of mediaIncrease in importance of media Increase in importance of early Increase in importance of early

primaries (and momentum and primaries (and momentum and expectations!)expectations!)

A representative A representative beginning?beginning?From the 2000 CensusFrom the 2000 Census

IowaIowa New New HampshirHampshir

ee

National National averageaverage

PopulatioPopulationn

2,929,3242,929,324

(30(30thth))1,235,7861,235,786

(41(41stst))281,421,90281,421,90

66

% White% White 93.9%93.9% 96%96% 75.1%75.1%

Median Median incomeincome

$39,469$39,469 $49,467$49,467 $41,994$41,994

% Farm % Farm employmemploymtt

4.4%4.4% .9%.9% 1.9%1.9%

Consequences of Party Consequences of Party ReformReform Increase in number of primariesIncrease in number of primaries Increase in importance of mediaIncrease in importance of media Increase in importance of early Increase in importance of early

primaries (and momentum and primaries (and momentum and expectations!)expectations!)

Decreases importance of national Decreases importance of national party conventionsparty conventions

Consequences of Party Consequences of Party ReformReform Increase in number of primariesIncrease in number of primaries Increase in importance of mediaIncrease in importance of media Increase in importance of early Increase in importance of early

primariesprimaries Decreases importance of national party Decreases importance of national party

conventionsconventions Decreases importance of state party Decreases importance of state party

leadersleaders Party activists give way to candidate Party activists give way to candidate

activistsactivists

Changes After 1968Changes After 1968

McGovern-Fraser reformsMcGovern-Fraser reforms

FECAFECA

Federal Election Federal Election Campaign Act Campaign Act

Creates a Creates a voluntary voluntary subsidy for subsidy for candidates who enter primary electionscandidates who enter primary elections– All funds candidates raise in amounts of All funds candidates raise in amounts of

$250 or less (if they raise $5000 in 20 $250 or less (if they raise $5000 in 20 different states) are different states) are matchedmatched by the federal by the federal government on Jan 1 of election yeargovernment on Jan 1 of election year

Bans large donations by individualsBans large donations by individuals– Individuals can only give $2000 to a Individuals can only give $2000 to a

primary candidateprimary candidate

Consequences of Party Consequences of Party Reform & FECAReform & FECA Increase in number of primariesIncrease in number of primaries Increase in importance of mediaIncrease in importance of media Increase in importance of early Increase in importance of early

primariesprimaries Decreases importance of national party Decreases importance of national party

conventionsconventions Decreases importance of state party Decreases importance of state party

leadersleaders Harder to raise money (takes longer to Harder to raise money (takes longer to

raise big money in small contributions!)raise big money in small contributions!)

A Couple of Problems?A Couple of Problems?

Ideological primary voters?Ideological primary voters?

Candidates mobilize factions?Candidates mobilize factions?

Presidential Presidential Party Nomination Party Nomination SystemsSystems

““King Caucus”: 1800-1828King Caucus”: 1800-1828

Convention System: 1832-1912Convention System: 1832-1912

Mixed System: 1912-1968Mixed System: 1912-1968

Primary System: 1972-1982?Primary System: 1972-1982?

Frontloaded primary system 1982-presentFrontloaded primary system 1982-present

Hunt Commission, Hunt Commission, 19821982

SuperdelegatesSuperdelegates

FrontloadingFrontloading

DateDate 20082008 19961996

Jan wk1Jan wk1 IA, WYIA, WY

Jan wk2Jan wk2 NH, NH,

Jan wk3Jan wk3 MI, NVMI, NV

Jan wk4Jan wk4 SC, FLSC, FL AK, HIAK, HI

Feb wk1Feb wk1 ME, CA, NY, IL, NJ, MA, GA, ME, CA, NY, IL, NJ, MA, GA, MN, MO, TN, CO, AZ, AL, CT, MN, MO, TN, CO, AZ, AL, CT, AR, OK, KS, NM, UT, DE, ID, AR, OK, KS, NM, UT, DE, ID, ND, AL, MTND, AL, MT

LALA

Feb wk2Feb wk2 LA, NE, WA, ME, DC, MD, VA, LA, NE, WA, ME, DC, MD, VA, HI, WIHI, WI

IA IA

Feb wk3Feb wk3 NHNH

Feb wk4Feb wk4 DE, AZ, ND, SDDE, AZ, ND, SD

Mar wk1Mar wk1 OH, RI, TX, VTOH, RI, TX, VT CA, CT, GA, ME, MD, HI, MN, ND, CA, CT, GA, ME, MD, HI, MN, ND, MA, NY, OH, RI, VTMA, NY, OH, RI, VT

The Invisible PrimaryThe Invisible Primary

Role for elitesRole for elites

Role of moneyRole of money

Role of the pressRole of the press

Role for votersRole for voters

Momentum in Invisible Primary, not Momentum in Invisible Primary, not necessarily primaries themselvesnecessarily primaries themselves

Republican nomination Republican nomination 20002000 Bush’s moneyBush’s money

– April 1999: $6 millionApril 1999: $6 million– July 1999: $36 millionJuly 1999: $36 million– December 1999: $70 millionDecember 1999: $70 million

Closest competitor: McCainClosest competitor: McCain– July 1999: $6 millionJuly 1999: $6 million– December 1999: $15 millionDecember 1999: $15 million

& Endorsements…& Endorsements… Bush:Bush:

– Michigan Gov. John Engler (R)Michigan Gov. John Engler (R)– Oklahoma Gov. Frank A. KeatingOklahoma Gov. Frank A. Keating– Fla. Gov. Jeb Bush (R)Fla. Gov. Jeb Bush (R)– Conn. Gov. John G. Rowland (RConn. Gov. John G. Rowland (R– Mass. Gov. Argeo Paul Cellucci Mass. Gov. Argeo Paul Cellucci – Colo. Gov. Bill Owens (R)Colo. Gov. Bill Owens (R)– Idaho Gov. Dirk Kempthorne (R)Idaho Gov. Dirk Kempthorne (R)– Montana Gov. Marc Racicot (R)Montana Gov. Marc Racicot (R)– R.I. Gov. Lincoln C. AlmondR.I. Gov. Lincoln C. Almond– La. Gov. M.J. "Mike" Foster (R)La. Gov. M.J. "Mike" Foster (R)– Pa. Gov. Tom Ridge (R)Pa. Gov. Tom Ridge (R)– Kan. Gov. Bill Graves (R)Kan. Gov. Bill Graves (R)– Virginia Gov. James S. Gilmore IIVirginia Gov. James S. Gilmore II– N.Y. Gov. George E. Pataki N.Y. Gov. George E. Pataki – Utah Gov. Mike Leavitt (R)Utah Gov. Mike Leavitt (R)– Wyo. Gov. Jim Geringer (R)Wyo. Gov. Jim Geringer (R)– Wis. Gov. Tommy ThompsonWis. Gov. Tommy Thompson– Neb. Gov. Mike Johanns (R)Neb. Gov. Mike Johanns (R)– Nev. Gov. Kenny Guinn (R)Nev. Gov. Kenny Guinn (R)– Ohio Gov. Robert A Taft II (R)Ohio Gov. Robert A Taft II (R)– Ill. Gov. George H. Ryan (R)Ill. Gov. George H. Ryan (R)– Tenn. Gov. Don Sundquist (R)Tenn. Gov. Don Sundquist (R)– Ark. Gov. Mike Huckabee (R)Ark. Gov. Mike Huckabee (R)– Iowa Gov. Terry E. Branstad (R)Iowa Gov. Terry E. Branstad (R)– Ariz. Gov. Jane Hull (R)Ariz. Gov. Jane Hull (R)– W.Va. Gov. Cecil H. UnderwoodW.Va. Gov. Cecil H. Underwood– N.J. Gov. Christine Todd WhitmanN.J. Gov. Christine Todd Whitman

AlexanderAlexander– Ark. Gov. Mike Huckabee (R)Ark. Gov. Mike Huckabee (R)

– Iowa Gov. Terry E. Branstad Iowa Gov. Terry E. Branstad (R)(R)

– Tenn. Gov. Don Sundquist (R)Tenn. Gov. Don Sundquist (R)

ForbesForbes– NM Governor Gary JohnsonNM Governor Gary Johnson

HatchHatch– UT Gov. Mike LevittUT Gov. Mike Levitt

QuayleQuayle– Miss. Gov. FordiceMiss. Gov. Fordice