THE PRE-FEASIBILITY STUDY ON THE PROJECT …...THE PRE-FEASIBILITY STUDY ON THE PROJECT FOR WIND...

THE PRE-FEASIBILITY STUDY ON

THE PROJECT FOR WIND POWER DEVELOPMENT IN

PANAY ISLAND, THE PHILIPPINS

FINAL REPORT

December 2004

Engineering and Consulting Firms Association, Japan

Pacific Consultants International

N

Panay Island

Study Area

(Pandan)

Map of the Philippines and Panay Island

Potential Wind Power Development Sites in Northern Panay

Photo 1Pandan area (Antique province)

Photo 2Bitadton site (Antique province)

Photo 3St. Remigio area (Antique province)

Photo 969kV/13.2kV substation at Nabas

Photo 4Nabas area (Aklan province)

Photos of Potential Wind Power Development Sites in Panay

Photo 5Access to wind monitoring station atPandan site

Photo 6Part of Pandan site viewed from windmonitoring station

Photo 7Wind monitoring station at Pandan site

Photo 8Flagging of trees at a hill near Nabas,indicating strong winds

Photo 969kV/13.2kV substation at Nabas

Photo 10Collecting information related to windpower development at panay

Abbreviations

ANTECO Antique Electric Cooperative, Inc.

BHN Basic human needs

CDM Clean Development Mechanism

DOE Department of Energy, Philippines

ECFA Engineering and Consulting Firms Association

EDC Energy Development Corporation, Philippines

EIA Environmental Impact Assessment

F/S Feasibility Study

IEE Initial Environmental Examination

IPP Independent Power Producer

JBIC Japan Bank for International Cooperation

JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency

JETRO Japan External Trade Organization

METI Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry

MMBOE Million barrels of fuel oil equivalent

NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration, USA

NEDO New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization, Japan

NGO Non-Governmental Organization

NIPAS National Integrated Protected Areas System

NPC National Power Corporation, Philippines

NREL National Renewable Energy Laboratory, USA

ODA Official Development Assistance

PEC Panay Electricity Corporation

PEP Philippine Energy Plan

PhP Philippine Peso

PNOC Philippine National Oil Company

SAPROF Special Assistance for Project Formation

STEP Special Terms for Economic Partnership

TRANSCO Transmission Corporation, Philippines

WTG Wind Turbine Generator

WWF World Wildlife Fund

List of Tables

Table 2.4-1 Wind Power Plant Development Plans in the Philippines .................... 7

Table 3.2-1 Power Supply/ Demand Projection in Panay ....................................... 10

Table 4.2-1 Panay Island Profile ........................................................................... 14

Table 4.3.2-1 Power Supply Area by Supplier in Panay ............................................ 15

Table 4.4-1 Long-Term Panay Grid Power Demand Projections............................. 17

Table 4.5.1-1 Existing Power Plants in Panay Grid .................................................. 17

Table 4.5.1-2 Power Balance Forecast Sheet ............................................................ 18

Table 4.5.1-3 Short-term Power Supply Projection in the Panay Grid ....................... 19

Table 4.7-1 Power Development Plan in Panay Grid ............................................. 22

Table 4.8-1 Power Demand Supply Projection....................................................... 23

Table 4.9.1-1 Electrification Status and Customer Potential in Antique Province ...... 24

Table 5.1.2-1 Wind Energy Potential in Panay Island and Other Areas ..................... 29

Table 5.3.2-1 Meteorological Data and Wind Data for Pandan Vicinity .................... 31

Table 5.3.2-2 Monthly Average Wind Speed Near Pandan........................................ 31

Table 5.3.3-1 Wind Data Comparison: NASA Data and Wind Power Projects ........... 32

List of Figures

Figure4.1-1 Panay Island map ............................................................................... 13

Figure4.3.1-1 Power Facilities in Panay Grid ........................................................... 15

Figure4.3.3-1 Daily Load Curve of Panay Grid ........................................................ 16

Figure4.5.2-1 Panay-Negros Grid Systems ............................................................... 20

Figure5.1.2-1 Wind Power Potential in Panay Island ................................................ 28

Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island

Executive Summary

1. Purpose and Scope of the Study

The Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay

Island, Philippines (“Pre-Feasibility Study”) intends to examine the necessity and

appropriateness of a wind power development project in Panay Island (“proposed

Project” or “Project”). The Pre-Feasibility Study also intends to present and analyze

data and information necessary to conduct a full-scale feasibility study on the

proposed Project. In addition, scope of the Pre-Feasibility Study includes the

examination on potentials of applying Japanese soft loans and other cooperation

schemes to the Project, and the possibility of participation to the Project from

Japanese firms. Overall, the Pre-Feasibility Study is situated as a catalyst of the

forthcoming feasibility study and the actual project implementation.

2. Methodology of the Study

Pacific Consultants International engaged three experts (“study team”) for the

Pre-Feasibility Study. The study team firstly conducted a preliminary study and

reviewed available data and information. Site survey was then performed in Panay to

supplement the lacking data with the help from governmental agencies in the

Philippines, which have been extensively studying the wind energy development and

possess abundant local data and information. Preliminary wind climate check was

also conducted during the site survey in several locations where high wind energy

development potentials are expected to exist.

The study team brought back the obtained data and information to further analyze

the viability of the Project. Its result is compiled in the final report of the

Pre-Feasibility Study, which includes the estimation of expected power output from

the Project, socio-economic and environmental contribution, preliminary financial

analysis and prospected schedule of the Project, issues to be cleared, and

recommendations for the project implementation.

3. Study Results

The Pre-Feasibility Study has revealed that the Project realization is necessary and

appropriate and also that earliest possible implementation of a full-scale feasibility

study is essential to realize the Project and to solve the power supply problems

Panay Island is currently facing.

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1) Selection of energy source

The Philippine government has established the “Medium-Term Philippine

Development Plan 2004-2010” and the “Philippine Energy Development Plan

2004-2013,” which give top priority to the promotion of clean and stable energy

sources in the nation. The government especially makes notes of the potential of

wind energy and expects it to become the key indigenous energy source that can

contribute to the nation’s improved energy security and also to the reduced

dependence on foreign oil. The Philippines is committed to the environmental

conservation of the national land and also the entire planet. The government is trying

to enhance the promotion of such clean energy sources as wind energy to achieve the

greenhouse gas emissions reduction.

According to the wind energy potential study conducted by the National Renewable

Energy Laboratory (NREL) of the United States Department of Energy, entire

Philippines contains more than 70,000 MW wind power potentials that can be

developed for commercial use.

2) Study of development sites

Preliminary study on the Philippines’ power conditions and future projections has

uncovered that Panay Island, a tropical island located about 400 km southeast of the

nation capital of Manila and having more than 3.5 million people in its

12,000km2-land, is currently facing a severe power shortage problem and this trend

will sustain for the coming years. Power shortage problem has been not only

hindering the local economic activities but also harming the daily life of the Panay

residents.

Although power demand in the Panay grid system keeps growing about 7% every

year, power supply is limited and there exists no definitive long-term plan of adding

new power supply sources to the grid. Many of the diesel-fueled power plants

currently supplying a large portion of the electricity to the island are severely

deteriorated and some of them are expected to retire in few years. In addition, power

transfer from other grid systems, which is currently the largest power source of the

Panay grid, is limited in its capacity.

Based on its “Panay Power Contingency Plan,” Philippine Department of Energy is

undertaking such measures as promotion of distributed power source from

indigenous resources, especially wind energy, relocation of power generation units

from other grid systems, promotion of demand side management, and introduction of

some innovative policies to solve the power shortage problem in Panay.

3) Potential of wind energy in Panay

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Several sources provide data on wind potentials (wind velocity, energy power density,

etc.) in the Philippines and Panay Island: NREL from US Department of Energy, US

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and World Wildlife Fund

(WWF), all of which recognize a large wind potential in the Philippines and the

island. WWF estimates the island contains 78 potential wind power development

sites, which have a total power generation capacity of 564 MW, an amount that can

well cover the current and future power demand in the Panay Island.

Preliminary wind climate check was performed during the site survey for the

Pre-Feasibility Study at four locations in Panay: Pandan, Bitadton, St. Remigio (the

three locations in Antique province), and Nabas (Aklan province). The preliminary

check has indicated that the sites are rich in wind resources that should be further

studied. At Pandan in particular, WWF and a local wind power developer have

jointly been collecting wind climate data, and the annual average wind speed is

estimated to reach about 7.0 m/s at the height of 40 m above the ground.

4) Expected project outputs and outcomes

Proposed Project is a wind power development project in the Pandan area located in

the northwestern part of Panay Island. Considering such factors as power

demand-supply projections, power transfers, local wind conditions, environmental

and other issues, the size of the Project is targeted at about 20 MW, or 5% of the

expected power demand in Panay in 2012.

Preliminary analysis shows that a 20MW wind farm development project in the

Pandan area can annually generate 56,062 MWh of electricity with a 32% capacity

factor. Calculations also demonstrate that the Project can reduce more than 50,000

tons of greenhouse gas emissions (CO2 equivalent) every year assuming 20 MW

diesel power plants keep their current operation.

Implementation of the prospected Project is expected to bring Panay Island stable

power supply and promote socio-economic development. Moreover, the Project can

create new employment opportunities, especially in the construction and operation

and maintenance sectors, and also new tourism opportunities, which can stimulate

local economies.

5) Project schedule and costs

It is expected that the Project will need at least 22 months to be completed: 7 months

for project kick-off activities and bid documents preparation combined, and 15

months for an EPC contract from award of contract to commercial operation of the

wind farm. If a feasibility study can be completed by the end of 2005, the proposed

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Project can be implemented from 2007 to 2008, and the wind farm can start providing

power to Panay customers from 2009.

Preliminary financial analysis indicates that the total expected project cost is USD 32

million (in addition, O&M cost is USD 0.32 million). Since the Philippines’ local

banks place high interest rate, it is unlikely that the Project is solely managed by

local funds. Assuming the Japanese Special Terms for Economic Partnership (STEP)

scheme provides 80% of the Project cost, and the remaining 20% by the

implementing agency of the Philippines, the Project yields 27.3% IRR with 11.9

years payback period.

6) Japanese cooperation

As one of the world’s leaders of wind energy development, Japan has amassed a rich

experience in the field. Japanese research institutions, consulting firms, wind turbine

manufacturers, and developers possess abundant knowledge and experience in the

fields of research, planning, design, procurement, construction, and O&M of wind

farms as well as wind study and analysis, and they can greatly contribute to the

successful implementation of the Project.

4. Conclusion

Preliminary study and data review, site survey, and overall project analysis have

revealed that wind power development project in Panay Island can be feasible and

can help fulfill the serious power shortage problem and its adverse impacts on local

industries and residents, and thus, a full-scale feasibility study on the Project shall

be conducted to realize the Project as early as possible. The Study Team has

acknowledged the importance of introducing a new power source in the Panay grid

to secure stable power supply in the island and deemed wind energy to be the

appropriate option.

Introduction of wind energy accords with several of the Philippines’ national

policies, namely the “Medium-Term Philippine Development Plan 2004-2010” and

the “Philippine Energy Plan 2004-2013,” and the Project can contribute to the

fulfillment of main objective of the policies, which is the eradication of poverty and

the promotion of healthy and safe economic activities as well as daily lives of

Philippine people.

5. Recommendations

To achieve the early and smooth implementation of the Project, followings are

recommended:

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- A full-scale feasibility study on the Project shall be conducted, for which a

scheme under METI/JETRO with financing for feasibility study to be

implemented in 2005 is a desirable option. A study under different schemes, if

considered appropriate, is also an alternative to the project realization.

- Japanese firms can take advantage of their rich knowledge and experience in

wind power development before and during the implementation stage of the

Project.

- The Project can take advantage of the economies of scale if wind power

potentials in the Pandan area and Nabas area are concurrently developed, both of

which have similarly sufficient wind climates.

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Table of Contents

Site Map

Site Photos

Abbreviations

List of Tables and Figures

Pre-Feasibility Summary

1. Introduction ............................................................................................................. 1

1.1 Background of the Study .................................................................................... 1

1.2 Study Objective .................................................................................................. 2

1.3 Study Contents ................................................................................................... 2

1.4 Study Methods ................................................................................................... 3

1.5 Study Team ........................................................................................................ 3

1.6 Study Schedule and Site Survey.......................................................................... 3

1.7 List of Interviewees ............................................................................................ 3

2. Overview of Philippine Energy Sector and Renewable Energy Development Plan... ...5

2.1 Overview of Energy/ Electricity Sector ............................................................... 5

2.2 Overview of Philippine Energy Plan 2004-2013 .................................................. 5

2.3 Renewables Promotion Bill in the Philippines ..................................................... 6

2.4 Major Wind Energy Development Sites............................................................... 7

2.5 Overview of North Luzon Wind Power Project.................................................... 7

2.6 Wind Power Development in the Philippines....................................................... 8

3. Panay’s Power Supply & Demand and Renewable Energy Development Plans ........ 9

3.1 Overview of Panay Power Supply and Demand ................................................... 9

3.2 Panay Power Contingency Plan ......................................................................... 9

3.3 Renewable Energy Promotion in the Philippines ............................................. 11

3.3.1 WWF’s Promotion Activities ..................................................................... 11

3.3.2 Wind Survey in Pandan Area...................................................................... 12

3.3.3 Hydro Power Plant Construction Plan in Panay .......................................... 12

3.4 Sustainable Energy Conference in Panay........................................................... 12

4. Overview of Study Sites......................................................................................... 13

4.1 Location, Topography, Climate......................................................................... 13

4.2 Socioeconomic Status ....................................................................................... 14

4.3 Overview of Panay Power Sector ...................................................................... 14

4.3.1 Overview of Panay Grid System................................................................. 14

4.3.2 Administration of Panay Grid..................................................................... 15

4.3.3 Panay Power Demand Profile ..................................................................... 16

4.4 Power Demand Projection................................................................................. 17

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4.5 Power Supply Projection .................................................................................. 17

4.5.1 Supply from Existing Power Plants ............................................................ 17

4.5.2 Power Supply from Other Grids ................................................................. 19

4.6 Transmission Facilities and Substations ............................................................ 21

4.7 Power Development Plan in Panay Grid ............................................................ 21

4.8 Power Supply Demand Balance in Panay Grid .................................................. 22

4.9 Overview of Power Condition in Antique Province ........................................... 23

4.9.1 Power Supply in Antique ........................................................................... 23

4.9.2 Transmission and Distribution Systems ...................................................... 24

4.9.3 Load Patterns............................................................................................. 24

4.9.4 Electricity Price ......................................................................................... 25

4.10 Advisory Points on Power Development in Panay Grid.................................... 25

4.10.1 Analysis on Necessity of New Power Development .................................. 25

4.10.2 Environmental Issues ............................................................................... 25

4.10.3 Introduction of Wind Power Plant ............................................................ 26

5. Wind Condition in the Project Area and EstImated Power Output ............................ 27

5.1 Wind Energy Potential...................................................................................... 27

5.1.1 NREL Estimation....................................................................................... 27

5.1.2 WWF Estimation ....................................................................................... 27

5.2 Overview of Wind Resource Observation .......................................................... 29

5.2.1 Existing Wind Resource Data in Panay....................................................... 29

5.2.2 Wind Resource Observation in Pandan ....................................................... 30

5.3 Estimation of Wind Condition in Pandan......................................................... 30

5.3.1 Wind Data ................................................................................................. 30

5.3.2 NASA Wind Speed Data ............................................................................ 30

5.3.3 Analysis on NASA Wind Data ................................................................... 32

5.3.4 Estimation of Wind Condition in Pandan .................................................... 33

5.4 Estimation of Wind Power Generation .............................................................. 33

6. Analysis on Proposed Wind Power Generation System........................................... 35

6.1 Power Generation System Components ............................................................. 35

6.2 Estimation of Annual Power Output .................................................................. 35

6.3 Grid Connection ............................................................................................... 36

6.4 Other Conditions to be Confirmed .................................................................... 37

7. Wind Power Generation System Its Cost and Financial Analysis.............................. 38

7.1 Construction and O&M Costs ........................................................................... 38

7.1.1 Construction Costs..................................................................................... 38

7.1.2 Analysis on Construction Costs .................................................................. 38

7.1.3 Estimation of Construction and O&M Costs ............................................... 39

7.2 Power Generation Costs and Electricity Price ................................................... 39

7.3 Acquisition of Project Funds ............................................................................ 39

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7.3.1 Funds Acquisition in Related Project.......................................................... 39

7.3.2 Loan Conditions for STEP Projects ............................................................ 39

7.3.3 Funds for the Prospected Panay Wind Project............................................. 40

7.4 Project Feasibility ............................................................................................ 40

7.5 Application of Japanese Soft Loans .................................................................. 41

8. Overview of laws, environmental issues local development, and CDM application 42

8.1 Laws and Regulations to be Applied to the Project ............................................ 42

8.1.1 Applicable Laws and Regulations............................................................... 42

8.1.2 Environmental Laws and Regulations ......................................................... 42

8.2 Social and Environmental Impacts .................................................................... 42

8.2.1 BHN and Electricity Business .................................................................... 42

8.2.2 Significance of the Project ......................................................................... 43

8.2.3 Environmental Issues ................................................................................. 43

8.3 CDM Application ............................................................................................. 43

9. Project implementation and related issues .............................................................. 45

9.1 Project Validity and Outcomes ......................................................................... 45

9.2 Project Implementation Schedule ...................................................................... 45

9.3 Probable Implementation Agency ..................................................................... 46

9.4 Application of Japan’s Knowledge and Experience ........................................... 46

9.5 Application of Japanese Grant Aid or Loans ..................................................... 47

9.6 Involvement of Japanese Firms ......................................................................... 48

9.7 Expansion of Wind Project in Other Areas ........................................................ 48

10 Conclusions and recommendations ...................................................................... 50

[Attachment]

A Tables and Figures

B Estimation of power generation and greenhouse gas emissions, and financial analysis

C 要約（和文）

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1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of the Study

The Department of Energy of the Philippines (hereinafter referred to as “DOE”) has

established the “Philippine Energy Development Plan 2004 – 2013,” which gives top

priority to the promotion of clean energy and expansion of indigenous energy supply.

DOE especially makes note of the potential of such renewable energy sources as wind

energy, and plans to double the total output capacity by such energy sources by 2013.

On the request from the Philippine government, the US Energy Department conducted a

wind survey throughout the Philippines and revealed the nation contains more than 70,000

MW of wind energy potential. The Philippine DOE has shown its intention of utilizing

this wind power to Panay Island of the Visayas during the earliest possible stage. Panay is

chosen as a potential wind development site because the island is facing a threat of

medium to long-term power shortage and also because people living in the area are

showing favorable positions toward environmentally friendly power generation method,

such as wind power. One study shows the island has a large potential of wind energy and

northern part of the island is one of the primary wind development target sites in the

nation.

Population in Panay Island has been constantly increasing by several percent every year

and this trend is expected to continue for the coming years. Economic condition of the

island also shows a constant growth every year, as indicated in its gross regional domestic

products (GRDP) growth rate of 2.2% for 1999, 3.6% for 2000, and 5.0% for 2001. One of

the factors facilitating this regional development is the Panay’s electricity supply system,

currently rated about 200 MW. However, several diesel power plants in Panay, which are

the island’s major power source, are expected to seize their operation in few years due to

their deterioration and also soaring crude oil prices.

Due to these constraints, Panay’s power supply cannot meet the demand, hindering

regional development and sustainable daily life of the residents. In light of the DOE’s

estimation that the island will need additional 250 MW of new power source by 2013, the

department has launched the “Panay Power Contingency Plan” in 2002 to solve the issue.

World Wildlife Fund (WWF) Philippines is extensively studying the nation’s wind energy

potential in a detailed level based on the survey data the US Department of Energy

uncovered. WWF promotes the introduction of renewable energy to call for power

development and environmental protection at the same time. Based on its own data, WWF

has identified the Pandan area in northern Antique state of Panay to be one of the suitable

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wind energy development areas and is currently performing a detailed wind study in the

area along with a local developer.

Pacific Consultants International (hereinafter referred to as “PCI”) has identified the

necessity of preliminary study on the wind power development in Panay Island and study

on its rationality and legitimacy, and has undertaken the pre-feasibility study as part of the

research mission on local development and technology cooperation in developing

countries conducted by the Engineering Consulting Firms Association (ECFA).

1.2 Study Objective

Objectives of the pre-feasibility study are as follows:

- To collect and analyze data and information that serve to understand the situation of

the power sector, power development, and renewable energy development in the

Philippines at national and local levels,

- To prepare a preliminary wind power development plan from technical,

environmental, financial and economic viewpoints,

- To examine the possibility of applying the Japanese soft loan scheme to the

proposed project, and

- To examine the potential of participation by Japanese firms into the proposed

project.

1.3 Study Contents

Local data is collected that is necessary for studying the potential of a wind power project

development, and suggestions for a feasibility study on the proposed project are presented.

Local surveys and data collection activities are performed with the help from the DOE,

Philippine National Oil Company - Energy Development Corporation (PNOC-EDC),

WWF, and local developing firms.

Main contents of the study include the following:

1. Review of the existing data and documents on the power development and

renewable energy development in the Philippines and the project sites,

2. Preparation of site survey, including questionnaires,

3. Preliminary assessment on wind resource,

4. Assessment on the potential size of the proposed project,

5. Preliminary assessment on actual implementation of the proposed project,

6. Study on environmental and energy-related laws and regulations, and

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7. Preliminary assessment on environmental and socio-economic impacts of the

proposed project.

1.4 Study Methods

The same steps for an ODA-related preliminary study are taken for this pre-feasibility study,

which include the following:

- Preliminary study and review of the existing data

- Preparation of an inception report that summarizes the study

- Preparation of a questionnaire to identify required data and information that is

unavailable during the preliminary study stage

- Site survey according to the inception report and the questionnaire

1.5 Study Team

The study team consists of three professional engineers from PCI who possess rich

knowledge and experience in studies on wind power development project. Name and

assignment for each team members are as follows:

Name Assignment

- Takashi KASAI Team leader/wind power development

- Tetsuya YOSHIDA Environmental and financial analysis

1.6 Study Schedule and Site Survey

The pre-feasibility study was conduced from August to December 2004. Site survey was

conducted in October 2004.

Site survey was conducted in three potential wind power development sites in Antique

province (Pandan, Sebaste, and San Remigio) and one potential site in Aklan province

(Nabas).

1.7 List of Interviewees

1. Department of Energy (DOE)

R. Liganor GIC-REMD (Renewable Energy Management Division)

F. Sibayan GIC-REMD (Renewable Energy Management Division)

2. PNOC-Energy Development Corporation (PNOC-EDC)

E. M. Pagalilawan Design Engineer

3. National Transmission Corporation (TRANSCO)

R. H. Jaleco Department Manager, District 1 - Panay Area

3


4. WWF Philippines

R. G. Senga Climate and Energy Policy Officer

J. S. Manlapaz Climate and Energy Policy Assistant

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2. OVERVIEW OF PHILIPPINE ENERGY SECTOR AND RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT PLAN

2.1 Overview of Energy/ Electricity Sector

The Philippines’s power system consists of three grid systems: Luzon, Visayas, and

Mindanao. The Luzon system has the largest amount of electricity generation as well as

consumption amongst the three systems, covering more than 75% of the nation’s total.

Two other systems, Visayas and Mindanao, share the remaining amount, comprising

about 10% each.

Philippines’ indigenous energy supply is dominated by oil, natural gas, and coal,

although none of which are abundant in the nation; whereas plenty of hydropower,

geothermal and other renewable sources can be found almost anywhere in the nation. It is

worth to be noted that the Philippines have been heavily dependent on imported oil.

Statistics show that in 1995 about 54% of the country’s total energy consumption is

resulted from the imported oil. Five years later in 2000, as a result of the government’s

policy change favoring indigenous energies instead of imported oil, the dependency rate

has dropped by 9 points to 45%.

The Department of Energy (DOE) and the Energy Regulation Committee (ERC)

administer the Philippines’ electricity sector. Subordinate agencies under these two

include National Electrification Administration (NEA), National Power Corporation,

Philippines (NPC), and Philippine National Oil Company (PNOC).

NPC owns the nation’s power plants and transmission facilities and also dominantly

purchases electricity generated by independent power producers (IPPs). NPC sells the

electricity it purchased from IPPs to private electricity companies such as Manila Electric

Company (MERALCO) and also to regional electricity corporations (RECs) that are run

by local governments.

2.2 Overview of Philippine Energy Plan 2004-2013

In its annual report titled the “Philippine Energy Plan 2004-2013” (hereinafter referred to

as “PEP 2004-2013”), DOE illustrates the nation’s current status on energy balance, i.e.,

production, import, and consumption in all sectors, as well as the nation’s 10-year

development plan and energy balance estimation.

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According to the PEP 2004-2013, the Philippines’ primary energy supply in 2004 is

estimated to be 273.98 MMBOE (million barrels of fuel oil equivalent); 152.04 MMBOE

by indigenous sources and 121.94 MMBOE by imported sources. Current rate of energy

self sufficiency is 55.5%, which DOE plans to increase up to 58.2% by 2013.

Pushed by the expected GDP growth rate of 5.7% per year from the year 2003 to 2013,

end-use energy demand is expected to increase by 3.7% every year during the same

period; electricity demand increases by 7.6% and demand on renewable energies

increases by 2.1%. PEP 2004-2013 describes the DOE’s intention of energy cutback plan,

which DOE claims can save 82.56 MMBOE of energy.

For renewable energies, DOE is planning to double their capacity by 2013. DOE sets

forth the goals of becoming “the largest geothermal energy producer in the world” and

becoming “the leading wind energy producer in Southeast Asia.”

2.3 Renewables Promotion Bill in the Philippines

A renewable energy promotion bill, House Bill No. 5771, has been submitted to the

Philippine parliament in the early 2003. The bill, titled “An Act Promoting the

Development, Utilization and Commercialization of Renewable Energy Source and for

Other Purpose,” is intended for promoting the development of renewable energy sources

such as biomass, hydropower, geothermal, wind, and photovoltaic energy in the

Philippines. Although the bill has been modified several times through extensive

discussions, it is yet to be approved.

As it seems likely that the nation will be running short of electricity supply beginning in

2006, the renewable energy bill contains the following measures that favor renewable

energy development:

1. Exemption of custom tax on equipment and materials for renewable energy

facilities

2. Extension of tax payment on equipment and materials made in Philippines

3. Exemption of real estate tax, local business tax, and local tax such as construction

permit fee

4. Application of special tax rate (lower than 2.5%) to the approved equipment

5. Exemption of value added tax (10%) on the approved equipment, both domestic

and imported

6. Exemption of export tax on domestic products made of domestic equipment and

materials

7. Exemption of income tax for 12 years after commercial operation begins

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2.4 Major Wind Energy Development Sites

The research conducted by the United States National Renewable Energy Laboratory

(NREL) in 1999 shows that the Philippines contain more than 10,000 km2 of land that are

suitable for wind energy development. NREL estimates that 1 km2 of these prospective

sites contains at least 7 MW potential, generating the national total of 70,000 MW wind

development potential.

This wind energy potential is so abundant that the Philippine DOE intends to promote the

introduction of wind power generation especially in the high-potential areas listed below.

Table 2.4-1 Wind Power Plant Development Plan

Location of Power Plant Rated Capacity

(MW)

Expected Year of

Operation

North Ilocos I 25 2004

Romblon 2 2006

Marinduque 3 2006

East Negros, Visayas 30 2006

North Ilocos II 35 2007

North Ilocos III 80 2007

Palawan 12 2007

Catanduanes 3 2007

West Mindoro 15 2008

East Mindoro 5 2008

Masbate 4 2009

Total 255 -

Data Source: DOE

2.5 Overview of North Luzon Wind Power Project

The wind power project in North Luzon is the first wind power plant construction project

in the Philippines and also in Southeast Asia. The feasibility study in 1998, which is

funded by the Japanese government, has proved the project to be viable. The Philippine

government intends to develop 40MW during the first development stage, and the

remaining 80 MW is expected to be developed during the next stage(s), completing the

development of the total 120 MW potentials in the project site.

Objective of the North Luzon project is to secure the energy supply source and to develop

the clean indigenous energy source by establishing a 40 MW power plant and 42 km-long

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transmission lines that connect the power plant with the adjacent main transmission line.

Features to be covered under this project include the tasks described below:

1. A wind power plant

(detailed design, equipment procurement and installation, construction and

electrical works)

2. Transmission lines and substations

(equipment procurement and installation, construction and electrical works)

3. Consulting services

(detailed design review, construction supervision, etc.)

Total project cost is estimated to be around 6.7 billion yen, about 90% of which, or 5.9

billion yen, is from the Japanese soft loan. The project is expected to see its

commencement in January 2005, and construction completion by June 2006.

2.6 Wind Power Development in the Philippines

According to PNOC-EDC, bilateral donors, such as Germany, Spain, and the United

States, as well as private firms are conducting local surveys in the Philippines to explore

the wind energy potential. KfW, an official development assistance agency of Germany,

for instance, is exploring the Surigao area of Mindanao island as well as north Luzon.

WWF lists four locations, North Luzon, North Palawan, Mindoro, and Panay, on the top

potential wind power development sites in the Philippines. WWF is currently studying

the wind resource in Panay and also conducting a site survey in other potential areas.

Japan is also supporting wind resource studies in the Philippines, and the recent example

is the feasibility study (F/S) on the Nubenta wind power project conducted in 2003. The

F/S was funded by the Japan External Trade Organization, and its objective is to

formulate a project that is implemented under the Japan’s soft loan scheme. The Nubenta

study reveals that the prospected 40 MW wind farm could generate up to 112.4 GWh

electricity every year with 32.1% capacity factor.

8


3. PANAY’S POWER SUPPLY & DEMAND AND RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT PLANS

3.1 Overview of Panay Power Supply and Demand

Major source of electricity of Panay is the diesel power plants located in the island, and

their current capacity is about 200 MW, which is expected to decline due to the

deterioration of the facilities. In addition, electricity supply from Negros island in the

south is limited. Although the underwater cables connecting the two islands can transfer

electricity up to 100 MW, actual output is limited to about 80 MW at most. And therefore,

rated capacity of those cables is planned be improved to 200 MW by the year 2006.

Panay’s power supply cannot meet the demand, hindering regional development and

sustainable daily life of the local residents. DOE estimated that the island will need

additional 250 MW of new power source by 2013.

The department has launched the “Panay Power Contingency Plan” in 2002 to solve the

issue, and gathered hands-on data and information from local government and residents.

President Arroyo visited the island in February 2003 and declared that the government

would answer immediately to the local public’s request for the stable power supply.

3.2 Panay Power Contingency Plan

Described below is an overview of the Panay Power Contingency Plan. The plan was

issued in early 2003 but not updated since then.

(1) Background (power supply/ demand projection)

Electricity demand in Panay is expected to increase from 178 MW in 2002 (actual) to

220 MW in 2005 (estimate) and the trend is expected to continue after 2003 as well.

Additional supply of 140 MW by 2004 and 410 MW by 2010 will be needed to meet

this demand, as shown in the table. No specific development plan to secure additional

power supply, however, currently exists.

9


Table 3.2-1 Power Supply/ Demand Projection in Panay

Year Name and Type of

Power Plants

RatedCapa-city

(MW) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Existing Power Plants (PP) Diesel PP 1 36.5 25 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Power Barge 103 32 20 20 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 Power Barge 104 32 23 23 23 0 0 0 0 0 0

Panay Power Co. 72 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 Transfer from Negros 85 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60

Subtotal 258 198 198 173 130 130 130 130 130 130 Additional PP (planned)

For peak-load demand 90 90 120 120 120 180 210

For middle-load demand 50 100 100 150 200 200 200

For base-load demand 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Subtotal 140 190 220 270 320 380 410 Actual generating capacity 198 198 313 320 350 400 450 510 540 Demand in NPC-grid 106 133 142 174 214 250 280 310 351 Total Demand (NPC and PPC) 176 203 212 244 284 320 350 380 421

Source: NPC (National Power Corporation, Philippines)

(2) Action Plans (alternative power supply)

The following options will be studied and evaluated within a one-year target period.

1) Development of distributed generation

Considering the fact that the supply transfer from Negros has a limitation, power

generation inside Panay is a good option. Three generation methods are compared

and analyzed as a possible alternative: conventional power generation system,

renewable energy utilization, or hybrid system of both methods. Since Panay is

rich in agricultural resources, biomass resources such as agricultural wastes and

biogas can be utilized, together with wind and solar energies, which are likewise

found abundant in Panay. Development of distributed generation is also effective

in diminishing the negative impacts on local environment.

2) Relocation of gas turbine or diesel units from Luzon

In case other options cannot be undertaken but an immediate solution is necessary,

the Philippine government may order the relocation of NPC-owned power units

currently under operation in Luzon. Possible units include the following (numbers

in the parentheses indicate the rated capacity of each unit):

10


- Sucat gas turbine unit (30 MW)

- Limay gas turbine units (4 units of 30 MW)

- Malaya gas turbine units (3 units of 30 MW)

- Pinamucan diesel power plant (110 MW)

3) Demand side management (DSM)

As a possible temporary option, DSM measures are taken, such as peak-load-cut or

peak-load-shift.

(3) Policy options (power supply strategy)

- Promotion of private investment

- Development of effective regulatory framework (especially framework for

renewable energy promotion)

- Diversification of fuel sources (especially promote biomass cogeneration and

wind energy)

- Supplier of last resort (the government through NPC is responsible for power

supply in the country)

3.3 Renewable Energy Promotion in the Philippines

3.3.1 WWF’s Promotion Activities

The Philippine office of World Wildlife Fund (WWF) puts emphasis on the

promotional activities of power generation and environmental conservation by

introducing renewable energies. WWF has even conducted its own wind resource

survey and published the result on its report titled, “Power Switch!: Scenarios and

Strategies for Clean Power Development in the Philippines.” Released in 2003, the

report depicts detailed data and information on various renewable resources including

wind energy, and the report concludes with recommendations that the country should

switch its power generation options immediately from the conventional ones to the

renewables-based energy sources.

The report also illustrates the Panay wind energy potential: the Antique province alone

contains 41 potential wind power development sites that have an estimated capacity of

309 MW and an estimated annual generation of 965 GWh (a potential site is defined as

an area that contains more than 500 W/m2 energy density and the required cost for grid

connection does not exceed 25% of the power generation and transmission costs).

Aklan province, located adjacent to Antique, contains 24 potential wind power

development sites that yield 163 MW total capacity and 517 GWh annual generation.

11


Another report that presents the current situation and future power balance projections

of Panay is the “Maximization of the Utilization of New and Renewable Energy

Sources in Panay Island,” which is later revised as “Solving the Panay Power Crisis

Utilizing Sustainable Energy Alternatives” in 2004.

3.3.2 Wind Survey in Pandan Area

Since February 2004, WWF has been conducting a wind survey with a local private

developer in the Pandan area in northern Antique province using their own wind

resource monitoring instruments. They installed two 40m-tall masts for wind

monitoring and monitoring period is expected to be two years. Objective of the

experiment is to study technical and economical feasibility of a possible 15 MW wind

farm project that is financed by private investments.

3.3.3 Hydro Power Plant Construction Plan in Panay

A project site of a hydro power plant is found in Aklan province of Panay. Located in

south Aklan, the Timbaban hydro power plant can use water energy of Timbaban River

and its expected capacity is 23.5 MW, generating 113.8 GWh every year and 60.0%

capacity factor. Feasibility study on the project was conducted in 2003 and was funded

by Japan External Trade Organization.

3.4 Sustainable Energy Conference in Panay

The Sustainable Energy Conference was held in Iloilo city, located in southeast Panay, on

February 18, 2004. This nationwide conference attracted many parties from various

sectors including governmental agencies, educational institutions, and private

corporations. All participants agreed on the promotion of renewable energies for the

future power development in the Philippines as a countermeasure to the power shortage

and environmental issues the nation is facing.

As one of the key players of the conference, WWF announced the importance and

potential of wind energy development in Panay, backed up by its estimation of 564 MW

wind potential in the island. Moreover, on the next day of the conference WWF held an

opening ceremony of its wind monitoring facilities established in Pandan and appealed its

activities to the concerned parties.

In the meantime, DOE is trying to increase investment on wind energy development in

the Philippines, and the department distributes its “Wind Investment Kit,” which

compiles various wind data. DOE is also planning to organize the nationwide wind

energy development conference called the “Wind Energy Summit” in December 2004.

12


4. OVERVIEW OF STUDY SITES

4.1 Location, Topography, Climate

Panay Island belongs to Region VI of the Philippines, or the Western Visayas region, and

the island consists of five provinces, Iloilo, Capiz, Aklan, Antique, and Guimaras, as

shown in the map below.

Source: Western Visayas Tourism Center, Philippines

Figure 4.1-1 Panay Island map

The province of Antique is located in western part of Panay Island, and is extending north

and south along the mountain range. The Sulu Sea is running west of Antique, and to the

east, the mountain range, beyond which Aklan, Capiz and Iloilo provinces are found.

Antique terrain is generally mountainous, with about 83% of the land being located in the

high upland that has more than 8% slope angle. Remaining 17% are coastal or inland

regions. The mountain range running north and south in the central Panay is mostly made

of 500 to 1,300 m-tall mountains, some of which exceed 1,900 m elevation.

13


Climate in Antique is divided into dry season (November to April) and rainy season (May

to October), and most of the precipitation are recorded in the rainy season, especially

from June to September. Temperature in the region is characterized by its relatively cool

winter and extremely hot summer, especially April and May. Annual average temperature

is 27C and the relative humidity is high throughout the year. Northerly wind and

northeasterly wind dominate in November to May, while southeasterly wind dominates

from June to October. Typhoons do not hit the island frequently, usually recorded as only

once a year.

4.2 Socioeconomic Status

The table below shows the basic socioeconomic data of Panay Island. Antique province

makes up about 20% of the Panay land area. The province population of 471,088 is about

13% of the Panay’s total population.

Table 4.2-1 Basic Information of Panay Island

Province/ City Name

Land Area (km2)

Population （2000 stat.）

Population Density

(per km2)

Pop. Growth Rate (%)

（1995-2000）Aklan 1,826.1 451,314 247 2.05 Antique 2,471.7 471,088 191 1.89 Capiz 2,639.2 654,156 248 1.00 Iloilo 4,806.5 1,559,182 324 2.10 Iloilo City 42.0 365,820 8,710 1.93 Guimaras 581.9 141,450 243 2.43

Total 12,367.40 3,643,010 - -

Source: National Statistical Coordination Board (2002)

4.3 Overview of Panay Power Sector

4.3.1 Overview of Panay Grid System

The Panay island’s grid system belongs to the Panay grid system. Next figure shows

the location for the existing power plants, substations, and transmission lines.

14


Source: Timbaban F/S Report

Figure 4.3.1-1 Power Facilities in Panay Grid

4.3.2 Administration of Panay Grid

Local electric cooperatives supply electricity to the entire Panay island, except Iloilo

city, capital of Iloilo province, where a private electricity company called Panay

Electricity Corporation (PEC) supplies electricity to its customers. A table below

shows the power supply area of each cooperative and PEC.

Table 4.3.2-1 Power Supply Area by Supplier in Panay

Name of Electric Cooperative/ Electricity Company Power Supply Area

PEC Panay Electric Company Iloilo City ILECO I Iloilo I Electric Cooperative Southern Iloilo Province ILECO II Iloilo II Electric Cooperative Central Iloilo Province ILECO III Iloilo III Electric Cooperative Eastern Iloilo Province AKELCO Aklan Electric Cooperative Entire Aklan Province and part of Antique Province

(Pandan and Libertad areas) ANTECO Antique Electric Cooperative Antique Province (except Pandan and Libertad areas) CAPELCO Capiz Electric Cooperative Entire Capiz Province GUIMELCO Guimaras Electric Cooperative Entire Guimaras Province

Source: Maximization of the Utilization of New and Renewable Energy Sources in Panay Island

15


Each electric cooperative provides its customers with electricity that is generated at the

power plants NPC owns. The power is supplied through the grid owned by National

Transmission Corporation (TRANSCO), a government-owned power transmission

company that plans and operates the transmission line systems in the Philippines.

4.3.3 Panay Power Demand Profile

The graph below shows a daily load curve of the Panay grid that was recorded on a

normal day in 2003. The graph shows a typical pattern of the grid in which a sudden

load increase occurs after sunset and the load remains constant for the next 5 hours or

so. This is due to the local condition that most power demand in the Panay grid is from

the residential sector. Although during those peak hours after sunset require 100 to 130

MW of electricity, off-peak hours only need to meet 60 MW demand.

Panay Load & Supply Profile

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28Time of Day

(4 samples from 6 to 7pm)

MW

Panay LoadNegros Feed

Source: Maximization of the Utilization of New and Renewable Energy Sources in Panay Island

Figure 4.3.3-1 Daily Load Curve of Panay Grid

As shown in the above chart, the grid meets its base-load demand with power transfer

from the Negros grid, and its middle- and peak-load demand with power generated in

the diesel power plants inside the island. Although grid connection lines with the

Negros has a rated capacity of 100 MW (138 kV), their actual capacity is limited to

maximum 80 MW due to their deterioration and technical limitations.

16


4.4 Power Demand Projection

Power demand in the Panay grid has been steadily increasing and this trend is expected to

continue. From 1998 to 2001, electricity consumption in the grid has increased 7.1%

every year. This increase rate in the Panay grid is higher than other grids in the Visayas.

DOE issues the future projections of electricity consumption and peak demand in the

Panay grid, as shown in the table below.

Table 4.4-1 Panay Grid Power Demand Projections

Year 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Electricity Consumption

(GWh) 939 1,012 1,095 1,172 1,256 1,345 1,440 1,542 1,651 -

Peak Demand

(MW) 210 225 243 260 279 299 320 342 365 389

Source: DOE, Timbaban F/S Report

4.5 Power Supply Projection

4.5.1 Supply from Existing Power Plants

The Panay grid is equipped with four stationary power plants listed below, all of which

are fueled by diesel oil. Three out of these four power plants are expected to retire in

2005 to 2007, leaving only one power plant owned by an independent power producer

to operate after 2008. Small-scale power plants for emergency purposes and for remote

islands are not listed here.

Table 4.5.1-1 Existing Power Plants in Panay Grid

Capacity (MW) No. Power Plants Fuel Owner

Rated Actual Year to Retire

1 Panay diesel power plant Diesel NPC 36.5 15.5 2007

2 Power barge #103 Diesel NPC 32.0 26.0 2005

3 Power barge #104 Diesel NPC 30.4 18.5 2005

4 Panay power company Diesel IPP 72.0 72.0

Total 170.9 132.0

Source: DOE, Timbaban F/S Report

17


National Transmission Corporation (TRANSCO) is overseeing several power plants in

the Panay grid as shown below. Although these power plants’ rated capacity is 123.57

MW, actual output remains only 97 MW, or 68% of the rated capacity.

As shown below in the power balance forecast sheet of October 21, 2004, in order to

meet the forecasted demand of 118 MW (which excludes 75 MW demand from

independent power producers), the grid is receiving 60 MW supply from the Negros

and covering the remaining 58 MW from the supply sources inside the Panay grid. It is

clear that power transfer from another grid system, which accounts for more than 50%

of the Panay grid’s power supply, plays a very important role in the Panay system.

Table 4.5.1-2 Power Balance Forecast Sheet

Source: TRANSCO

18


TRANSCO reveals a short-term power supply projection in the Panay grid in September

2004, as shown below. The figures in the table contain only the supply amount from

power sources TRANSCO administer.

Table 4.5.1-3 Short-term Power Supply Projection in the Panay Grid

2004 2005 2006 2007 Utility Type*

MW GWh MW GWh MW GWh MW GWh

Small Utilities 40.2 154.6 40.4 167.2 42.0 178.3 44.2 190.2

Other Utilities 93.0 376.2 97.5 392.6 103.7 417.1 110.6 444.6

Non Utilities 0 0 3.9 13.7 4.1 17.0 4.2 17.4

Total 133.2 530.8 141.8 573.5 149.8 612.4 159 652.2

*Note: Small Utilities include AKELCO and ANTECO Other Utilities include CAPELCO, GUIMELCO, ILECO I, ILECO II and ILECO III Non Utilities include Phil Foremost, Prov. Capitol

Source: TRANSCO

4.5.2 Power Supply from Other Grids

The Panay grid is connected to the Negros grid with a 138 kV underwater cable. The

Negros grid is linked to the Cebu grid, which is linked to the Leyte grid. (These four

grid systems together with the Bohol and Samar grids make the Visayas Grid, one of

three main grid systems in the Philippines.) Although each of these grid systems has its

own power generation sources inside the grid, main power source of the grid systems is

the geothermal power plant in Tongoan, located in the northern Leyte Island. Next

figure summarizes the Visayas Grid system.

19


Source: TRANSCO

Figure 4.5.2-1 Panay-Negros Grid Systems

Power transfer among the grid systems usually takes place in the following way

(numbers shown are an example of May 2003): the geothermal power plant in Tongoan

supplies 180 MW of electricity to the Cebu grid; some of this 180 MW is used to meet

the power demand in the Cebu grid and the remaining power is transferred to the

Negros grid; some of this power is used to meet the power demand in the Negros grid

and the remaining power is transferred to the Panay grid (which was about 85 MW).

Existing power plants in the Panay grid have lost their supply capacity, and this has

made it very difficult for the grid to supply stable electricity to its customers, which

has eventually forced the grid to depend heavily on other grid systems for its power

sources. However, the connection line that links the Panay and the Negros grids has

been deteriorated so badly that its transfer capacity has dropped to 80 MW from the

rated 100 MW capacity.

20


As the power demand in the Visayas area is expected to keep growing, the project is

currently underway that the transfer capacity of the Leyte-Cebu transfer line is doubled

from 200 to 400 MW. Moreover, Panay-Negros line and Negros-Cebu are also expected

to double their transfer capacity from 100 to 200 MW.

According to TRANSCO, tender preparation for the Panay-Negros line improvement

project is expected to take place by the end of 2004. The project is expected to add

another 100 MW of transfer capacity to the line, which is upgraded from current 80 to

about 180 MW by 2006.

4.6 Transmission Facilities and Substations

The substation at Dingle located in central Panay is the connection point of the 138 kV

Panay-Negros line. Dingle substation supplies electricity to the 138 kV main

transmission line in Panay, which extends north-south from Panitan substation in Capiz

to St. Barbara substation in Iloilo. Electricity is steeped down to 69 kV at these

substations and then supplied to customers in the island through 69 kV transmission lines

(which are one radial distribution circuit).

There are three existing substations in Antique province, namely Hamtic, Sibalom, and

Culasi, all of which are equipped with one 5 MVA 69/6.9 kV transmission transformer.

Electricity is supplied to end-users through one or two 6 kV distribution line feeders.

TRANSCO’s transmission/ substation development plans include a plan of extending the

138 kV transmission line from Panitan to Nabas of Aklan province, which is located in

north western point of the island. The plan is shown in Figure 4.5.2-1.

4.7 Power Development Plan in Panay Grid

DOE has developed the power development plan to secure the stable power supply in the

Panay grid as shown in the Table 4.7-1. Mirant Co., an independent power producer of

the Philippines, is planning to start operation of the 40 MW diesel power plant in 2004.

Mirant is also planning to relocate the Pinamucan power unit (119 MW) from Batangas of

Luzon Island to Panay.

Although Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO) was developing the 100 MW

coal-fired thermal power plant project in Panay, having unable to find the right location

and faced an opposition from local residents, project site was moved to Cebu Island.

The Timbaban hydro power plant project, for which Japanese party has conducted F/S, is

expected to start construction in 2006 and commissioning is expected in the end of 2010.

The power plant is expected to supply 23.5 MW of electricity every year after 2011.

21


Although its actual implementation is not still underway, for reference purpose, the table

below contains the power supply from this hydro power plant.

Table 4.7-1 Power Development Plan in Panay Grid

Year of Commissioning Developer Name of Plant Fuel Capacity

(MW) Situation

Mirant Panay Diesel Diesel 40 Ongoing 2004

NPC-Enron Pinamucan Diesel 110 Transferred

2009 - (middle load) - 50 Proposed

2010 - (peak load) - 50 Proposed

- (middle load) - 50 Proposed 2011

PNOC-EDC Timbaban Hydro 23.5 Proposed

2012 - (base load) - 50 Proposed


4.8 Power Supply Demand Balance in Panay Grid

Based on the information on the supply capacity of the existing power plants and future

power development plans described above, power balance projections from the current

year to 2012 are presented in Table 4.8-1. It is expected that the supply will be able to

meet the demand only until 2008, and after 2009 the grid is expected to start lacking its

power supply.

Power supply that is expected to be transferred through the improved Negros grid could

cover most of these supply deficiencies, given that the power transfer line starts its

operation in 2006 as planned. In addition, existing power barges and diesel power plants

currently under operation are so deteriorated that they are not a stable and reliable power

source any more from a medium- to long-term perspective. Lack of these alternate power

supplies is also a big issue that has to be solved.

22


Table 4.8-1 Power Demand Supply Projection Unit: MW

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Demand Peak Load 210 225 243 260 279 299 320 342 365

Panay Diesel 15.5 15.5 15.5 - - - - - -

Power Barge 26.0 - - - - - - - -

Power Barge 18.5 - - - - - - - -

Panay Power 72.0 72.0 72.0 72.0 72.0 72.0 72.0 72.0 72.0

Mirant Co. 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0

Panay Electric 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

Pinamucan 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0

Interconnection 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0

Supply

Total 367.0 322.5 322.5 307.0 307.0 307.0 307.0 307.0 307.0

Power Balance

(Supply - Demand) 157.0 97.5 79.5 47.0 28 8.0 -13.0 -35.0 -58.0


4.9 Overview of Power Condition in Antique Province

This Pre-Feasibility Study mainly examines the potential of wind power development in

Antique province, which has an outstanding wind condition in Panay Island. Descriptions

below contain the overview of power condition in Antique province.

4.9.1 Power Supply in Antique

Antique Electric Cooperative, Inc. (ANTECO) is responsible for the power supply in

Antique province. ANTECO is funded by loans from National Electrification

Administration (NEA) and owned by customers in the island. According to its 2002

annual report, though the cooperative is more than 26-years old, its performance is

exceptional among the nation’s large power cooperatives (ranked 9th among the 119

power cooperatives evaluated).

Based on the ANTECO data, electrification status of Antique province is summarized

in the Table 4.9.1-1.

23


Table 4.9.1-1 Electrification Status and Customer Potential in Antique Province

Total Number Electrified

Municipalities 16 16 (100%)

Towns/ Villages 537 387 (72%)

Potential Actual

Number of Customers 76,911 43,894 (57%)

Source: ANTECO 2002 Annual Report

As clearly shown in the above table, electrification rate of the province in terms of

number of customers remains low at only 57% (43,897 actual customers out of 76,911

potential). If the grid is able to supply electricity to its customers as demanded, it can

greatly contribute to the improvement of economic activities and living standard in the

province.

Power demand in the province reaches its peak at 7 to 8 p.m. and during these hours

demand exceeds supply in the grid. ANTECO is forced to conduct rotational power

outages to avoid blackouts. As ANTECO is responsible for supplying electricity to

Antique customers, the cooperative is anticipating for an urgent establishment and

implementation of power development plans. As the power demand tends to increase

when the supply is secure and stable, new power development plans should take into

account the size of the region’s potential customers.

4.9.2 Transmission and Distribution Systems

ANTECO’s transmission and distribution networks are shown in the Attachment

A4.9.2-1. 69 kV-transmission lines are extending north-south in Antique province,

connecting Nabas substation of Aklan province in the north and Miag-Ao substation of

Iloilo province in the south. There are currently three substations in the province,

namely Culasi, Sibalom, and Hamtic, all of which step down the power by 69 kV/ 13.2

kV/ 5 MVA transformers and distribute electricity to customers. Residential customers

receive power in 220V. Attachment A4.9.2-2 shows the transmission and distribution

networks, and A4.9.2-3 shows the single line diagram of a substation.

4.9.3 Load Patterns

Daily and annual load curves for each substation recorded in 2002 are shown in

Attachments A4.9.3-1 to A4.9.3-7. Annual load curves show that all substations

experience the maximum power load in December and the minimum load in October,

24


though their discrepancy is not so large. Daily load curves show that peak hours are

found at 7 to 8 p.m. for all substations but their load pattern is slightly different from

each.

4.9.4 Electricity Price

Electricity price for ANTECO in November 2003 is shown in the Attachment A4.9.4-1.

Basic monthly rate is set at PhP 4.41/kWh and after adding and subtracting various

charges the actual monthly rate is set at PhP 5.54/kWh. Electricity users are largely

categorized into 5 uses: residential, commercial, public buildings, industrial, and street

lights. About 93% of the electricity users belong to the residential category (or 38,704

customers out of 41,675 customers, which is the number of customers who have the

voltmeter, or 95% of the total actual electricity users in the province, 43,894

customers).

For residential uses, minimum monthly rate of PhP 44.10 is charged if the user

consumes 1 to 10 kWh in a month, and additional charge of PhP 5.24 plus minimum

monthly rate of PhP 44.10 is charged for every kWh if the monthly use exceeds 10

kWh.

4.10 Advisory Points on Power Development in Panay Grid

4.10.1 Analysis on Necessity of New Power Development

Introduction of new power sources inside the Panay grid is essential, considering the

current condition the Panay island is in: although power demand in the Panay grid has

constantly increased by 7% every year, existing diesel power plants are extremely

deteriorated; and although the power transfer from another grid accounts for more than

50% of the power supply of the island, transfer capacity of the Negros-Panay

connection line is limited only to 80 MW.

Although the Negros-Panay line is expected to improve its transfer capacity to 180

MW by 2006, heavy dependence on power transfer from remote areas is not

recommended because power transfer usually accompanies with heavy transmission

loss and because it may make the power voltage more unstable. Establishment of new

power sources is necessary, preferably the distributed source being located near the

end-users, to secure the long-term power supply-demand balance of the Panay grid.

4.10.2 Environmental Issues

The Panay grid has used only diesel power generations as its power source, but high

diesel fuel costs have escalated the electricity price and fossil fuel burning has caused

25


air pollution problems. The Pinamucan diesel power plant, which is to be relocated in

stages to Panay, is fueled by crude oil. As crude oil contains various pollutants and the

output from the power plant is large (rated capacity is 110 MW), the plan may worsen

the environmental problems of the island.

Although KEPCO was planning to build a 100 MW coal-fired thermal power plant in

Panay, after a long battle with local residents who oppose to the construction of

environmentally unfriendly power plant, the company was forced to find the alternate

project location outside of Panay. As shown in this example, in establishing a new

power source, it is important to choose clean energy source that matches with local

residents’ need in environmental conservation.

4.10.3 Introduction of Wind Power Plant

Panay Island hosted the “Sustainable Energy Conference” in February 2004, which

aims at the establishment of frameworks for the promotion of renewable energy. The

participants from central government, local government, universities and research

institutions, NGOs, NPOs, and local developers have agreed that introduction of

abundant renewable energy sources found in Panay shall be promoted as a possible new

power source. During the conference, WWF promoted its wind study activities in the

Pandan area as part of its clean energy promotion program.

DOE is preparing for the “Wind Energy Summit,” which is to be held in December

2004, which also aims at the promotion of investment in wind energy development in

the Philippines.

Under these circumstances, introduction of wind power in the Panay grid as its new

power source is deemed appropriate and legitimate, and furthermore, the project in

Panay is anticipated to become the follow-up official assistance project in the

Philippines in the wind development sector after the “North Luzon Wind Power

Project” and the “Nubenta Wind Project in South Surigao.”

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5. WIND CONDITION IN THE PROJECT AREA AND ESTIMATED POWER OUTPUT

5.1 Wind Energy Potential

5.1.1 NREL Estimation

National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) of the US Department of Energy

published “Wind Energy Resource Atlas of the Philippines,” in which the Philippines’

wind energy potential, including the one in Panay Island, is estimated. The report,

which was published in February 2001, remains the only available source for the

island’s wind potential resource data.

In the report, NREL classifies the wind energy potential in six classes, and considers

the areas with class 3 and higher are “good” or “excellent” for wind power

development for utility-scale uses. Class 3 is defined as the site that contains wind

power density of 300 to 400 W/m2, and average wind speed of 6.4 to 7.0 m/s at the

height of 30 m.

The report concludes that the entire Philippines contain more than 70,000 MW wind

energy potential, or areas of Class 3 or higher. Attachment A5.1.1-1 shows the nation’s

wind energy potential map.

5.1.2 WWF Estimation

WWF Philippines, with the help from the Philippines’ universities and research

institutions, estimated the nation’s wind energy potential based on the NREL wind

atlas. Figure 5.1.2-1 shows the result of WWF wind power estimation in Panay Island.

As clearly shown in the map, the island contains many high-potential areas, especially

along the central mountain range extending north and south and also at the northern tip

of the island, where very high wind potential (energy density of 600 to 900 W/m2 or

average wind speed of 8.0 to 9.0 m/s) was recorded. Table 5.1.2-1 summarizes wind

energy potentials in Panay Islands.

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Panaywind1.shp0 - 100100 - 200200 - 300300 - 400400 - 500500 - 600600 - 900

Panaytracks.shpPanaynba.shp

Source: WWF

Figure 5.1.2-1 Wind Power Potential in Panay Island

WWF defines the practical wind energy development sites as those areas that contain

more than 500 W/m2 of energy density and the required cost for grid connection does

not exceed 25% of the power generation and transmission costs. The practical wind

energy development sites are plotted on a the Attachment A5.1.2-1. The map is

showing the number of potential sites, potential power capacity, and estimated annual

power generation for each of the Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao Archipelagos.

28


Table 5.1.2-1 Wind Energy Potential in Panay Island and Other Areas

Region Province Number of

Potential Sites Expected

Capacity (Mwe)

Expected Annual Power Generation

(GWh)

Aklan 24 163 517

Antique 41 309 965

Capiz 1 7 20

Iloilo 12 85 266

Panay

Panay Total 78 564 1,768

Entire Visayas Archipelago 305 2,168 6,738

Entire Philippines 1,038 7,404 23,047

Source: WWF

As shown above, WWF estimates that 78 prospective locations in Panay Island contain

about 564 MW of total capacity, which can generate about 1,768 GWh of electricity

every year. Expected generation capacity of Panay occupies about 26% of the Visayas

archipelago expected capacity of 2,168 MW, which accounts for about 29% of the

entire nation’s potential capacity.

As shown earlier in Table 4.4-1, expected maximum electricity demand in Panay in

2012 is 365 MW. Wind power development in these potential sites, or even some of

those sites facing high demand, can cover substantial portion of this increasing demand.

Effective utilization of abundant wind resources in Panay has a significant meaning in

all aspects if all the conditions are cleared including site acquisition, grid connection,

grid operation, and environmental issues.

5.2 Overview of Wind Resource Observation

5.2.1 Existing Wind Resource Data in Panay

Philippines’ PNOC-Energy Research & Development Center published the report titled,

“Site Definition and Feasibility Studies on Wind, Wave, and Tidal Potential” in 1984,

in which Panay’s wind resource data can be found. The report contains only the data on

average monthly wind speed at 10m-height recorded in Iloilo city. Since the report

does not cover most of the land in Panay including Antique, it is rather insufficient to

use the report to accurately understand the wind energy potential in Panay.

Boracay Island, a small island located in the northwestern tip of Panay Island, contains

relatively good wind resources. Although one European wind turbine manufacturer is

currently conducting a wind survey in Boracay, its detailed data is yet to be disclosed.

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5.2.2 Wind Resource Observation in Pandan

As shown in Figure 5.1.2-1 (Wind Power Potential in Panay Island by WWF), the

Pandan area in northwestern Panay contains many wind development potential sites

(wind energy density 300 to 400 W/m2 or more and average wind speed 6.4 to 7.0 m/s

or more). In addition to its excellent wind conditions, the area complies with various

other factors required for wind development.

WWF has been investigating the possibility of wind development in the Pandan area in

view of the group’s fundamental goal of environmental conservation. To secure the

medium- to long-term power supply in Panay by clean wind energy, WWF in coalition

with local developers has started wind energy observation on February 19, 2004. They

have established one 40m-tall wind monitoring mast, which is to be used for two years.

For this monitoring mast, WWF was responsible for the procurement of the mast itself,

as well as collection of wind data, while local developers were responsible for the

procurement of monitoring instruments, such as anemometers (which measure wind

velocity), wind vanes (which measure wind direction), and data logger.

5.3 Estimation of Wind Condition in Pandan

5.3.1 Wind Data

According to the wind data WWF gathered in the Pandan area during February to

September 2004, the average wind speed of the area is about 6.1 m/s at the elevation of

40m. WWF expects the one-year dataset (containing wind direction and speed)

necessary for usual wind power estimation to be gathered by February 2005.

Very accurate estimation of local wind condition is possible using WAsP (Wind Atlas

Analysis and Application Program), a wind analysis software, which integrates the

local wind data, topographical data, land surface (roughness) data, and obstruction

data.

Even if the complete one-year dataset is not available, another wind analysis software

developed by a Japanese firm can perform an estimation on local wind conditions and

power generation, although the software still needs wind data of at least three months

to simulate one-year wind condition.

5.3.2 NASA Wind Speed Data

Sufficient wind data is essential to accurately estimate power generation because the

energy content of the wind varies with the cube (the third power) of the wind speed.

30


The US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) publishes the

meteorological data of the entire earth surface. The data, called NASA Surface

Meteorology and Solar Energy, contains basic earth data such as surface temperature

and wind speed. Each data point is set at the center of a mesh that is one latitude and

one longitude.

The Pandan area is located in-between of two NASA observation points (arbitrarily

assigned “A” and “B” here). Average wind speed in the last 10 years at the elevation of

50 m is 5.34 m/s for point A and 4.99 m/s for point B, with the two locations’ average

wind speed 5.2 m/s.

Table 5.3.2-1 Meteorological Data and Wind Data for Pandan Vicinity

Geometry for Central Point of LocationAverage Wind Speed (last 10 yrs.)

(m/s)

Location Longitude (degrees

west)

Latitude (degrees

north)

Elevation (m)

Yearly Average

Temperature (last 10 yrs.)

(degrees Celsius)

Elevation of Observation Point: 50m

Elevation of Observation Point: 10m

A 121.5 11.5 0 27.5 5.34 4.56

B 122.5 11.5 196 27.2 4.99 4.27

Average Wind Speed: 5.17 4.42

Source: NASA Surface Meteorology and Solar Energy

Table 5.3.2-2 below summarizes the monthly average wind speed for the two locations

near Pandan. Both locations show the highest velocity in December.

Table 5.3.2-2 Monthly Average Wind Speed Near Pandan

Monthly Average Wind Speed (m/s) Location Elevation

Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Yr.

Ave.

50m 7.03 6.31 5.84 4.45 3.40 4.71 4.55 5.92 4.55 4.67 5.64 7.04 5.34A

10m 6.01 5.40 4.99 3.80 2.91 4.03 3.89 5.05 3.90 3.99 4.82 6.02 4.56

50m 6.60 6.03 5.60 4.34 3.16 4.20 4.19 5.41 4.13 4.34 5.34 6.66 4.99B

10m 5.64 5.16 4.79 3.71 2.70 3.59 3.58 4.63 3.54 3.71 4.57 5.69 4.27

Ave. for 50m Elev. 6.82 6.17 5.72 4.40 3.28 4.46 4.37 5.67 4.34 4.51 5.49 6.85 5.17

Source: NASA Surface Meteorology and Solar Energy

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5.3.3 Analysis on NASA Wind Data

Being the only available data on the wind condition of Pandan, NASA’s wind speed

data is a critical source in estimating the wind condition of the area. However, further

study is still necessary to find out whether the NASA wind speed data can be directly

applied for the estimation of local wind condition, or the data needs some modification

for direct application. Not only wind speed but topography of land surface including

impediment objects affect the local wind conditions.

The following table compares the NASA wind speed data with the wind data used for

the F/S on two wind development projects in the Philippines, the North Luzon project

and the Nubenta project.

Table 5.3.3-1 Wind Data Comparison: NASA Data and Wind Power Projects

Geometry for Central Point of Location

Wind Speed Applied for F/S NASA Average Wind Speed

(m/s) (10-year average) F/S Project Name Longitude

(degrees west)

Latitude (degrees

north)

Elevation (m) Elevation 50m Elevation 10m

Wind Speed (m/s)

Elevation (m)

North Luzon

121.5 18.5 164 6.96 5.95 6.51 30

Nubenta 125.5 9.5 205 4.30 3.40 7.03 60

Source: NASA Surface Meteorology and Solar Energy, North Luzon F/S Report, Nubenta F/S Report

Data for the North Luzon project shown above (6.51 m/s) is the average mean wind

speed recorded at the four observation points in the Burgos area from July 1995 to June

1996. As shown in the table above, correlation is found between the two different

datasets (6.96 m/s at 50 m-elevation and 6.51 m/s at 30 m-elevation) when appropriate

exponential equations and minor adjustments such as elevation value are applied to

both datasets.

Data for the Nubenta project shown above (7.03 m/s) is the average mean wind speed

recorded from September to November 2003. Average wind speeds recorded during the

two months are 3.86 m/s at 30 m, 4.18 m/s at 40 m, and 4.68 m/s for 50 m elevations.

Based on these data, wind simulation yields average wind speed of 7.03 m/s at the top

of a 60 m-wind turbine tower, which is shown in the table above. Although NASA data

and actually measured data are showing approximate values (4.30 m/s for NASA and

4.68 m/s for actual, both at 50m elevation), it is questionable to compare the two as the

actual data covers wind speed recorded only for two months. The average speed used

for F/S (7.03 m/s at 60 m elevation), however, exceeds the NASA data (4.30 m/s at 50

m elevation).

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5.3.4 Estimation of Wind Condition in Pandan

Even if the local wind condition is not actually measured, it is still possible to estimate

the conditions by examining the presence of deformed trees, information obtained from

interviews with local people, or combination of two methods.

Expected annual average wind speed in northern Panay is about 7.0 m/s according to a

report prepared by local consultants and published by WWF. If this value is found to be

applicable, sufficient wind speed for wind power development (6.0 m/s or more) can be

secured and at the same time, efficient power generation is possible where strong wind

after sunset can reportedly cover high power demand in the evening.

A discrepancy is found between the NASA data on annual average wind speed in the

Pandan area at 50m-elevation, which is 5.2 m/s (see Table 5.3.2-2), and the WWF

expected wind speed, which is 7.0 m/s. However, wind measurement at the actual wind

development potential site may result in the higher values than the NASA data. Site

surveys are essential in pinpointing potential sites, as was the case for the F/S on

Nubenta wind power development project.

The ratio between annual average wind speed and 8-month average wind speed from

February to September is 1.13 (see Table 5.3.2-2 “Monthly Average Wind Speed Near

Pandan”). Multiplying this number by 6.1 m/s, which is the average wind speed in the

Pandan area from February to September, yields 6.9 m/s. Thus, annual average wind

speed in the Pandan area is assumed to be 7.0 m/s for this Pre-Feasibility Study.

Detailed analysis of wind data that is actually measured one year or more is still

necessary to precisely understand the wind condition of the area.

5.4 Estimation of Wind Power Generation

According to the report by WWF, the Pandan area covers about 33 km2 that can be used

for wind power development, and expected output from the development is about 106

MW. The area contains an environmental reserve where large-scale development is

prohibited and where coincidentally there are large wind energy potentials. Excluding the

protected area, WWF estimates that the projected development area contains up to 59

MW output.

According to the local developers, however, the Pandan area contains only 10 to 20 MW

energy potential considering such factors as land acquisition for access roads.

Such local features as medium- to long-term power demand/supply, grid capacity, wind

condition, and topographical condition determine development scale for a wind power

33


project. This Pre-Feasibility Study assumes the size of a prospected power plant to be

around 20 MW, or 5 % of the expected maximum local power demand in 2012 of 365 MW.

This is about half the size of the Phase I of North Luzon wind power development project

and of the Nubenta power development project (F/S), both 40 MW.

A wind farm usually consists of several wind power generators, or wind turbines, of the

same size so that stable and economic power output can be constantly obtained. The size

of a single wind turbine is assumed to be about 1,000 kW-class, based on the local

geographical conditions, current technology and expected technological advancement and

economic efficiency (especially increase in power generation under the low wind speed

condition). This means the prospected project of 20 MW capacity will contain 20 wind

turbines of 1,000 kW. The North Luzon F/S, on the other hand, assumed 600 kW turbine

size.

Annual power generation of the prospected 20 MW wind power plant in Pandan can be

estimated using the wind simulation software mentioned earlier. Nubenta wind power

development project, for instance, yields 123,378 MWh annual production with 35.2% of

plant capacity factor and 86.5% operation rate, given that the wind farm consists of 40

turbines of 1,000 kW. Based on these figures, it is expected that the Pandan area with its

20 turbines of 1,000 kW can generate about half of this annual production.

34


6. ANALYSIS ON PROPOSED WIND POWER GENERATION SYSTEM

6.1 Power Generation System Components

Wind turbines to be introduced shall be the ones with standard specifications and their

performance curve shall accord with the local wind conditions. Assumed that Japanese

new 1,000 kW wind power generator types are introduced, the power generation system

will contain the following components and specifications.

- Rated power : 1,000 kW

- Power generation type : Induction generator

- Power generation control : Pitch control

- Cut-in wind velocity : 3.0 m/s

- Rated wind velocity : 12.5 m/s

- Cut-out wind velocity : 25.0 m/s

- Max. tolerable velocity : 60.0 m/s

- Hub height : 68 m

- Blade radius : 61 m

Power generation types shall be chosen in a way that operation and maintenance for the

power generation components are easy, and also that operational fee is kept minimum.

Local conditions of the Philippines, including its tropical climate, and possible salt

damage shall also be taken into account.

6.2 Estimation of Annual Power Output

Feasibility of a wind power generation project largely depends on the local wind

condition (especially wind speed) and the power generation. Summarized below is the

annual power output estimation based on the assumptions of 7.0 m/s annual wind speed at

50 m elevation (see Chapter 5.3.4) and power generation components and specifications

(see Chapter 6.1).

- Wind plant capacity : 20,000 kW (20 MW)

- Gross energy production : 64,619 MWh

- Wind plant capacity factor : 32%

- Renewable energy delivered : 56,062 MWh

(Average wind velocity is 7.3 m/s at the Hub height of 68m)

An energy project analysis software called “RETScreen International: Renewable Energy

Project Analysis Software – Wind Energy Project” was used for the above estimation.

This software, developed by CANMET Energy Technology Centre (CETC) of the

35


Canadian government, enables the pre-F/S level simulation and analysis of a renewable

energy development project. This tool allows users to estimate and analyze total energy

generation, economic feasibility, and greenhouse gas emissions reduction, and also

enables easy sensitivity analysis with variables like wind speed and construction costs.

Japan’s New Energy Foundation (NEF) also developed a software for wind power project

analysis and distributed the copy to the concerned parties free of charge. Put the same

input data as to the Canadian software, the Japanese software yields annual power

generation 58,168 MWh and power generation cost 3.8 yen/kWh with plant capacity

factor 33.2%.

6.3 Grid Connection

Power transfer from other grids sometimes accompanies decreased power quality,

including voltage fluctuation and reduction, frequency fluctuation, and also control of

higher harmonics is required. Development scale of a wind farm greatly varies depending

on these factors. For a small-capacity grid such as the Panay grid, grid connection is

essential, while in other cases a farm’s development scale is downsized. Therefore,

prospected F/S for the Panay project shall analyze its development size in line with these

issues.

Proposed Pandan wind farm can be connected to the 138 kV Panay main transmission line

(connecting Panitan and St. Barbara: see Chapter 4.6) when the line is extended from

Panitan to the Nabas substation in Aklan province. Nabas is located near Pandan, about

10 km apart from each other. It is suitable to connect the proposed wind farm to the

Nabas substation via a 69 kV transmission line.

Currently used 69 kV transmission lines (ACSR 336.4 mm2 type) are not sufficient

enough to support a 20 MW wind farm and needs further reinforcement, according to

ANTECO, a power transmission company that administers Antique province. Iloilo city

office of TRANSCO, which oversees the Philippines’ transmission system, is responsible

for grid control management.

The proposed wind farm will need to comply with the “grid codes,” a standard applied

when a new power generation facility is connected to a grid system. The Philippines,

however, currently do not have any legitimate standard applied to a grid connection of a

new distributed power generation such as a wind power plant.

36


6.4 Other Conditions to be Confirmed

A wind farm development project needs to analyze and confirm the following factors

during the F/S stage:

1. A project site contains sufficient wind conditions

2. A project contributes to the fulfillment of power demand

3. A project has sufficiently connects with grid system

4. A project clears all land acquisition issues

5. A project site has a good accessibility

6. A project contains the minimum social and environmental impacts

7. A project meets the economic and financial standards

It is especially important that a project site does not contain any environmentally

protected areas, called NIPAS area (see Chapter 8.1.2).

One wind turbine of 1,000 kW capacity weighs about 40 to 50 tons (nacelle part only),

which may require a 500-ton crane. Assumed that those heavy equipment and machines

are unloaded at a port in Panay, for instance Iloilo port, further local study is essential

during the F/S. Even limited rough study revealed several notable local conditions: not

all the roads to Antique are paved; most of the bridges have strength of 20 tons or so: and

a 4.8m overpass is found on the way.

37


7. WIND POWER GENERATION SYSTEM ITS COST AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

7.1 Construction and O&M Costs

7.1.1 Construction Costs

Construction costs for a wind power plant consists of equipment cost and construction

cost. Each is comprised of the following items.

(1) Equipment cost

- Wind turbine (nacelle, tower, control equipment, etc.)

- Electricity facility (step-up transformer, cables, distribution boards)

- Substations

- Transmission lines

- Spare parts

(2) Construction cost

- Foundation building for wind turbine

- Foundation building for substations and transmission line towers

- Construction of entry roads to the project site(s)

- Mechanical works

- Electrical works

Total project cost includes, besides above items, land acquisition/ leasing costs, import

tax, value added tax, consulting fees, and contingencies.

7.1.2 Analysis on Construction Costs

The price of a wind turbine is based on the market price, which, for a standard type,

seldom changes greatly. Costs for the remaining items, such as foundation and

construction costs, on the other hand, are significantly affected by local topographical

and geological conditions. In addition, substations and transmission costs can vary by

such factors as grid connection conditions with the existing grid.

A feasibility study is needed to determine basic designs, which enable calculation of

the detailed construction costs. Since the F/S on the Panay wind project has not yet

started and basic data and information are lacking, some of the estimations described

38


below are based on the F/S reports from North Luzon and Nubenta wind power

development projects.

Both North Luzon and Nubenta projects intend to construct a 40 MW wind farm that is

connected to the existing grid system. Although being roughly estimated, total project

cost per kW output is about USD 1,800/ kW, or about 200,000 yen/ kW. Market price

of a wind turbine is below USD 1,000/ kW, and this trend that wind power generation

cost exceeds power plant construction cost is expected to persist for the coming years.

7.1.3 Estimation of Construction and O&M Costs

Assuming that a construction cost is USD 1,600/ kW, total project cost is estimated to

be USD 32 million and annual operation and maintenance (O&M) cost is USD 0.32

million, or 1% of the total project cost.

7.2 Power Generation Costs and Electricity Price

ANTECO, a power distribution company in Antique, charges PhP 5.24/ kWh to its

residential customers (see Chapter 4.9.4). Power generation cost of the Dingle diesel

power plant (Iloilo province) is about PhP 5.00/ kWh. Power generation cost of a diesel

power plant, which uses expensive diesel fuels, is relatively high, bearing a burden to

local consumers.

Wholesale electricity value is assumed to be around PhP 3.00/ kWh (USD 0.054/ kWh)

for a wind farm in the Panay grid. The price is based on the wholesale purchasing price

ANTECO pays to National Power Corporation (NPC), PhP 2.67/ kWh.

7.3 Acquisition of Project Funds

7.3.1 Funds Acquisition in Related Project

It is advisable that the project cost is covered by PNOC-EDC as much as possible, and

the remaining is supplemented by Japan’s soft loans. As an example, the North Luzon

wind power development project receives Japan-tied loans with 0.95% annual interest

rate and a 40-year payback period (with a 10-year grace period)

7.3.2 Loan Conditions for STEP Projects

Japan’s loan scheme contains the system called Special Terms for Economic

Partnership (STEP), which promotes Japan’s transparent official development

assistance through the technology transfer of Japan’s advanced technology and

knowledge/ information to less developed countries. STEP scheme requires the

39


procurement to be Japan-tied (untied condition is allowed for subcontractors) and the

scheme covers up to 85% of the total project cost. Loan conditions for a STEP project

in the Philippines are set at 0.40% annual interest rate and a 40-year repayment period

(grace period is 10 years).

Although loans from commercial banks are available in the Philippines, those banks

impose strict conditions. For instance, the Development Bank of the Philippines offers

the “Environmental Infrastructure Support Credit Program” that covers up to 80% of

the total project cost but with a 9.0% annual interest rate and a 20-year payback period

(grace period is 5 years).

7.3.3 Funds for the Prospected Panay Wind Project

Considering its large potential of clean energy development and local development, the

Panay wind power development project needs to maintain its financial feasibility as

high as possible. Next Chapter details the result of a preliminary financial analysis of

the Project, which assumes that 20% of the total project cost is covered by PNOC-EDC

and the remaining 80% by Japan’s STEP loans.

Feasibility of a project largely depends on the types of funds available and types of

funds need to be analyzed and selected very carefully. Assumptions (procurement

conditions, loan conditions, etc.) used in this Pre-Feasibility Study are preliminary,

and therefore, more detailed project analysis is necessary during the F/S stage.

7.4 Project Feasibility

Using the Canadian software “RETScreen,” preliminary analysis and calculations yield

the following results (see Attachment for further details).

- Renewable energy delivered : 56,062 MWh - Project life : 20 years - Discount rate : 15% - Avoided cost of energy : USD 0.054/ kWh - Initial cost : USD 32,000,000 - Annual costs – total : USD 1,670,812 - Annual saving – total : USD 3,027,355 - Pre-tax IRR : 27.3% - Simple payback : 11.9 years - Year-to-positive cash flow : 4.1 years - Cumulative cash flow : USD 41,388,134 (20 years) - Annual life cycle savings : USD 925,975 - Debt payments : USD 1,334,440 - Debt service coverage : 2.08

40


Preliminary calculation sets the discount rate at 15% and it yields 27.3% IRR and an

11.9-year payback period. The project is judged “feasible” because the calculation

assumes that the STEP scheme is applied to the project. This is strictly for reference use

only and the figures largely vary depending on the applied conditions.

7.5 Application of Japanese Soft Loans

The F/S report on the Nubenta wind power project yields the FIRR of 3.9%. The report

concludes that the special yen loans are necessary for the realization of the project, as the

regular interest rates of the banks in the Philippines are so high. The Panay wind power

project should examine during its F/S stage the possibility of using the Japanese soft loan

schemes.

41


8. OVERVIEW OF LAWS, ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES LOCAL DEVELOPMENT, AND CDM APPLICATION

8.1 Laws and Regulations to be Applied to the Project

8.1.1 Applicable Laws and Regulations

Various laws and regulations of the Philippines are imposed on the wind farm

development project during its implementation stage. Detailed information of these

laws is revealed in the F/S reports of the Nubenta wind power project and also of the

Timbaban hydropower project. During the F/S stage of the Panay wind power project,

more detailed information shall be obtained and analyzed based on the information

available from these reports to enable smooth project implementation.

8.1.2 Environmental Laws and Regulations

Special attention needs to be paid to the environmental laws and regulations, especially

to Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) activities. One study reveals that in

establishing a wind turbine that is larger than 6 MW, an Initial Environmental

Examination (IEE) is required, though EIA is not mandatory.

The Philippines have introduced the National Integrated Protected Areas System

(NIPAS) to preserve the local natural resources and biodiversity, where development

activities are severely restricted by laws. An area that may be designated as a NIPAS

area is found in a Panay Mountain National Park potential site which is extending from

Aklan, Antique, to Capiz provinces.

The Timbaban hydropower project site may also contain the NIPAS area in its potential

intake site and entry roads. Local government is currently lobbying for the exemption

of the project from the related laws.

8.2 Social and Environmental Impacts

8.2.1 BHN and Electricity Business

Many consider electricity supply as one of obligated public services that need to be

provided to citizens like drinking water and sewage system or communication systems.

However, a number of citizens still do not receive the benefit of electricity. Many

energy-related projects are currently underway in light of the projects’ contribution to

the fulfillment of basic human needs (BHN). These projects intend to achieve the rural

development and also reduction of disparities between urban and rural residents by

42


enhancing rural electrification. Improved living standard of the local residents and

increased income for individuals can be eventually attained, which also spur economic

development of local areas.

On the other hand, power supply, if not provided sufficiently, sometimes holds back

the local development and restrains people’s living standard. It is therefore essential

that sufficient and adequate power supply is secured to meet the local demand.

8.2.2 Significance of the Project

The proposed Project satisfies the increasing power demand by introducing wind

energy, a clean high-potential energy source that can greatly contribute to the

alleviation of global warming effects. The proposed Project enables socio-economic

development through the supply of electricity and also enables industrial advancement

through the establishment of essential social capitals. Secondary effects include

creation of local employment (from the construction to O&M stages), rural

development, creation of new tourism spots.

8.2.3 Environmental Issues

Environmental impacts caused by a wind power plant include, for instance, impacts on

flora and fauna, especially on birds, noise and aesthetic issues, and impacts on radio

waves; however, these factors are not expected to significantly affect the prospected

Project as the North Luzon project does not impact the local environment. Since the

Philippines impose strict environmental standards and regulations, even minor

environmental impacts shall be examined and their countermeasures shall be proposed

during the feasibility study stage.

Construction of a wind farm for the proposed Project will require IEE activities if the

Project introduces 1 MW wind turbine. Project contents, environmental and social

impacts, as well as environmental impacts during construction need to be disclosed and

analyzed in IEE.

Whether the Project site contains the protected NIPAS area needs to be studied during

the F/S stage.

8.3 CDM Application

The government of the Philippines has ratified the Kyoto Protocol in November 2003 and

is currently developing the nation’s legal and organizational frameworks.

43


Philippine DOE has established the Philippine Energy Plan 2004 – 2013 and intends to

reduce 32 million tons of greenhouse gas emissions (CO2 equivalent) by 2013 in the

nation’s energy sector.

More specifically, DOE is claiming to take the following measures in its “GHG

Mitigation and CDM Opportunities & Priorities: A Government Perspective on Clean

Energy Program”: preparation of CDM protocols, implementation of CDM projects, and

promotion of renewable energies and energy conservation. DOE lists on its prospective

energy sources wind, photovoltaic, solar heat, fuel cell, and ocean energies.

As wind energy power generation does not emit any carbon dioxide and also

environmentally sound, a wind power development project well matches the basic

concept of the CDM scheme. It is advisable to discuss with the Philippines side to find

out their intention and also possibility of CDM application during the F/S stage. It is not

yet disclosed whether or not the North Luzon wind power development project is seeking

its way to the CDM application, and also F/S reports on Nubenta wind project and

Timbaban hydropower project do not mention about possible application of the scheme.

44


9. PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION AND RELATED ISSUES

9.1 Project Validity and Outcomes

As clarly discussed in the Panay Power Contingency Plan, Panay Island will require

additional 250 MW of power supply by 2013. DOE and PNOC-EDC have both

proclaimed the necessity and appropriateness of introducing renewable energy sources to

Panay, especially wind energy, to meet this demand, which can simultaneously help

reduce dependence on foreign oil and meet environmental requirements.

Wind energy power generation does not emit any carbon dioxide, a typical and most

abundant greenhouse gas found on the planet. Expected CO2 emissions reduction for the

proposed project is more than 51,000 tons per year, assuming 20 MW diesel-fueled power

plants maintain their operation (see Attachment for more detail).

The proposed Project enables socio-economic development through the supply of

electricity and allows industrial advancement through the establishment of essential

social capital. Secondary effects include creation of local employment (from the

construction to O&M stages), rural development, and creation of new tourism spots.

Philippine national development plan, which is titled the “Medium-Term Philippine

Development Plan 2004-2010,” puts poverty eradication as its top priority issue, and lists

five main objectives:

1. Economic growth and job creation

2. Energy

3. Social justice and basic needs

4. Education and youth opportunity

5. Anti-corruption and good governance

9.2 Project Implementation Schedule

Construction of a 20 MW wind farm will require about 15 months from EPC contract to

equipment handover. If the F/S for the project is already completed and consulting

service contract is signed, F/S review, tender documents preparation, and contract

negotiation support will require about 7 months. Simple calculation yields the total

project implementation schedule of around 22 months; however, signing consulting

service contract and EPC contract takes longer time than expected in many cases, and

therefore, actual schedule may well take longer than 22 months.

45


If the F/S for the proposed Project is conducted by the end of 2005, and various

procedures are completed in 2006, next two years from 2007 may be able to see the actual

project implementation. This schedule will allow the wind farm in Panay to start its

operation in 2009.

9.3 Probable Implementation Agency

One of the Philippines’ wind power developers has been planning a wind farm

development project in the Pandan area. They require funding for conducting a full-scale

feasibility study and for putting the project into actual implementation. Therefore,

association work between the local developer and experience-rich PNOC-EDC is deemed

necessary. Full-scale F/S shall analyze and compare the possibility of project

implementation under the ODA scheme and privately funded condition. This

Pre-Feasibility Study provisionally assumes PNOC-EDC as the project implementation

agency.

PNOC-EDC is a public energy corporation fully funded by the Philippine government.

Since its first geothermal project in 1983, PNOC-EDC has developed, constructed, and

operated many geothermal power plants, and their cumulative total power capacity so far

accounts for 1,148 MW. World Bank and Asian Development Bank have recognized the

corporation’s achievement in geothermal energy exploration and development.

PNOC-EDC has also established a renewable energy research institute and is extensively

promoting R&D in the sector.

PNOC-EDC has been actively developing wind power development projects in the

Philippines by using its rich experience in geothermal energy projects. PNOC-EDC also

provides project management consulting services and also dispatches its engineers to the

wind power development sector. Considering the fact that the company is officially

assigned as an implementation agency of the North Luzon wind power development

project, PNOC-EDC has sufficient project implementation capabilities.

PNOC-EDC has been actively and extensively engaged in the North Luzon wind power

development project since its F/S stage, and the corporation possesses sufficient

technical knowledge and experience in wind power development, which could greatly

contribute to the implementation of the proposed project in Panay.

9.4 Application of Japan’s Knowledge and Experience

Japan’s national energy policy adopted in October 2003 states that although renewable

energies are supplemental energy sources for a time, their introduction is promoted as

one of the nation’s main energy sources in the future. Backed up by the policies favoring

46


renewables, introduction of wind power generation systems has been rapidly increasing

in the past few years. According to the NEDO’s statistics, 735 units of the established

renewable energy power plants in Japan have about 678 MW capacity, which is expected

to increase to 3,000 MW by 2010.

The Japanese government has enacted the “Special Measures Law Concerning the Use of

New Energy by Electric Utilities,” or so called RPS (Renewables Portfolio Standard).

The law has prompted the introduction of wind power plants since its adaptation in April

2003.

In parallel to the increasing number of wind power plants in Japan, Japanese research

institutions, consulting firms, wind turbine manufacturers, and developers have likewise

gained abundant knowledge and experiences in the fields of research, planning, design,

procurement, construction, and O&M of a wind farm as well as wind study and analysis.

Especially these parties take advantage of the country’s complicated topography and

variable climate and environment such as typhoons and lightning, and have obtained

much valuable data and experience.

Since the Philippines also contain some of the complicated topography and unusual

climate pattern, Japan’s rich experience and knowledge gained in the operation and

maintenance of wind farms in Japan are very useful in implementing a wind farm

development project in the Philippines.

9.5 Application of Japanese Grant Aid or Loans

It is unlikely that a wind power generation project is supported by a Japanese grant aid as

wind power still requires higher cost than conventional fossil-fuels to generate the same

amount of electricity, and this fact is contrary to the basic concept of grant aid that is to

fulfill the people’s basic human needs. Introduction of small-scale wind generators that

contributes to the electrification of rural areas is, on the other hand, corresponding to this

concept.

Several wind energy projects have been proposed to and adopted by the Japanese

Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI)/ Japan External Trade Organization

(JETRO). Only two of those project studies under this METI/JETRO project formulation

scheme have so far been actually implemented, the North Luzon wind power development

project in the Philippines and the Zafarana wind power development project in Egypt.

This scheme provided by METI/JETRO is one of the best ways to achieve the earliest

possible project realization.

47


It is desirable to propose a full-scale feasibility study on the Panay wind power

development project to the METI/JETRO scheme that is to be implemented in 2005.

Conducting an F/S under different schemes, if considered appropriate, is one of the

alternatives to the project realization.

9.6 Involvement of Japanese Firms

Several wind turbine manufacturers are present in Japan, and one of these firms has a rich

experience in the international markets. So-called “wind turbine system providers” in

Japan are also strong prospective participants to the Project. These system providers,

usually Japanese trading firms or heavy industry manufacturers, request foreign wind

turbine manufactures for the production of core equipment, while carrying out the

remaining procurement, installation, commissioning, and O&M activities by their own.

9.7 Expansion of Wind Project in Other Areas

Basic wind monitoring conducted in October 2004 at the San Remigio area in Antique

province shows the area contains only few m/s wind speed. One-year full monitoring is

necessary to determine whether the area is a potential wind power development site. To

find out whether full one-year monitoring is worthwhile in the San Remigio area, basic

monitoring was conducted with PNOC-EDC, who is also interested in the area.

Sebaste in Antique province is also famous for its excellent wind condition. Simple wind

monitoring conducted in October 2004 in the area reveals 6 m/s average wind speed

(monitoring period is 5 minutes). It is considered worthwhile to conduct a full-scale

one-year wind monitoring in the Sebaste area.

Nabas in Antique province is also located near Pandan and is known for its excellent

wind condition. Site survey in Nabas conducted in October 2004 reveals the existence of

deformed trees that imply strong wind speed of the area. Local developers in the

Philippines are planning the wind power development project in Nabas and planning to

establish a wind monitoring mast in early 2005. The Nabas area is located just 10 km

north from Pandan, and it is possible to develop two areas as one wind project site, which

is expected to contain about 30 to 40 MW capacity.

Outside of Panay Island, PNOC-EDC notices the wind potential in Marinduque Island

and Catanduanes Island, both of which are listed on the Philippines’ wind development

potential sites.

North Luzon and Surigao province (Mindanao Island) are the only sites surveyed for their

potential of wind energy development under the Japanese loan scheme. It is worth to be

48


noted that the Philippines contain countless other locations that have excellent wind

conditions and many of them have a very high potential of wind power development.

49


10 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Wind climate data of the Pandan area in Antique province has proved that the area

contains wind resources sufficient enough to sustain wind farm construction and

operation on a commercial basis. Assuming that the wind farm has a 20 MW power

generation capacity (10 units of 1,000 kW wind turbine), it is expected that the Project

generates 56,062 MWh annual power generation with 32% capacity factor, and 51,000

carbon dioxide emissions reduction. Total project cost is estimated to be around 3.5

billion yen.

The Project is anticipated to be financially feasible if the Japanese loan scheme is applied.

The Project can take advantage of the economies of scale if the project develops both the

Pandan area and Nabas area concurrently, both of which have similar wind conditions.

The proposed wind power development project in Panay accords with some of the

Philippines’ national policies, namely “Philippine Energy Plan 2004-2013,” “Renewable

Energy Policy Framework,” and “Panay Power Contingency Plan,” all of which aim at the

further promotion of renewable energy sources in the Philippines. The Project is expected

to greatly contribute to the reduced dependence on foreign oil and to the development and

enhancement of indigenous power sources. This Pre-Feasibility Study has uncovered,

once again, the importance and necessity of the actual implementation of the wind power

development project in Panay and also revealed the expected outcomes of the Project, and

therefore, a full-scale feasibility study on the Project is deemed essential and its earliest

possible implementation is strongly recommended.

50

Attachment A

Tables and Figures

Attachment A

1. Table A4.5.1-1 Short-Term Energy Demand Forecast in Visayas Grid

2. Figure A4.9.2-1 ANTECO Distribution System

3. Figure A4.9.2-2 Power Transmission and Distribution System in Antique Province

4. Figure A4.9.2-3 69kV/ 13.2kV Substation Single-Line Diagram

5. Figure A4.9.3-1 Example of Daily Load Curve of Antique Province

6. Figure A4.9.3-2 Annual Power Load Curve of Culasi Substation

7. Figure A4.9.3-3 Daily Power Load Curve of Culasi Substation

8. Figure A4.9.3-4 Annual Power Load Curve of Hamtic Substation

9. Figure A4.9.3-5 Daily Power Load Curve of Hamtic Substation

10. Figure A4.9.3-6 Annual Power Load Curve of Sibalom Substation

11. Figure A4.9.3-7 Daily Power Load Curve of Sibalom Substation

12. Table A4.9.4-1 ANTECO Electricity Price List

13. Figure A5.1.1-1 Philippines Wind Energy Potential Map (NREL)

14. Figure A5.1.2-1 Philippines Wind Energy Resource Map (WWF)

Table A4.5.1-1 Short-Term Energy Demand Forecast in Visayas Grid (Source: TRANSCO)

1

Figure A4.9.2-1 ANTECO Distribution System

2

Figure A4.9.2-2 Power Transmission and Distribution System in Antique Province

3

Figure A4.9.2-3 69kV/ 13.2kV Substation Single-Line Diagram

4

Figure A4.9.3-1 Example of Daily Load Curve of Antique Province

5

Figure A4.9.3-2 Annual Power Load Curve of Culasi Substation

6

Figure A4.9.3-3 Daily Power Load Curve of Culasi Substation

7

Figure A4.9.3-4 Annual Power Load Curve of Hamtic Substation

8

Figure A4.9.3-5 Daily Power Load Curve of Hamtic Substation

9

Figure A4.9.3-6 Annual Power Load Curve of Sibalom Substation

10

Figure A4.9.3-7 Daily Power Load Curve of Sibalom Substation

11

Table A4.9.4-1 ANTECO Electricity Price List

12

(Source: NREL)

Figure A5.1.1-1 Philippines Wind Energy Potential Map (NREL)

13

(Source: WWF)

Figure A5.1.2-1 Philippines Wind Energy Resource Map (WWF)

14

Attachment B

Estimation of Annual Power Generation and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Reduction, and Financial Analysis

Attachment B Estimation of Annual Power Generation and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction, and Financial Analysis

1

Attachment C

フィリピン国パナイ島風力発電事業予備調査

要約

Attachment C

「フィリピン国パナイ島風力発電事業予備調査」

要約

平成 16 年 12 月

社団法人海外コンサルティング企業協会

株式会社パシフィックコンサルタンツインターナショナル

1. フィリピンのエネルギー開発計画

フィリピン共和国のエネルギー省（DOE）は「フィリピンエネルギー計画

2004-2013 年」を策定し、この中で国産エネルギーの開発とクリーンエネルギー

の導入を積極的に推進する方針を明確にしている。特に、風力エネルギーを始

めとする再生可能エネルギーの開発を重視しており、2013 年までに再生可能エ

ネルギー利用発電の発電容量を現在の 2 倍にすることを同計画の重点目標とし

ている。DOE の下で風力エネルギーの開発を推進しているのはフィリピン石油

公団・エネルギー開発公社（PNOC-EDC）である。

米国エネルギー省傘下の再生可能エネルギー研究所（NREL）が 2001 年に実施

したフィリピン全土風況概略調査によれば、同国の風力発電のポテンシャルは

70,000MW に達する。一方、世界自然保護基金（WWF）のフィリピン支部は、

民間資本の導入による風力開発が電源開発と環境保全を両立させるものだとし

て、風力発電導入の可能性を探るための調査をフィリピン各地で行っている。

２. パナイ島の電力事情と風力発電導入

(1) 電力事情

パナイ系統は、2012 年にはピークロードが 365MW に達すると予測されている。

その需要をまかなうための供給力としては、ネグロス島との連系線によって最

大 80MW は確保できるものの、残りはパナイ系統内の電源に依存せざるを得な

い。連系線の送電能力を最大 180MW に増強するための拡張計画は存在するが、

その運用開始は順調に進んでも 2006 年になる。その間にも既設のディーゼル発

電所やパワーバージは老朽化が進行し、運転休止を余儀なくされる状況にある。

(2) 風力発電導入の動き

WWF によれば、パナイ島内でエネルギー密度 500W/m2 以上、かつグリッドま

での接続コストが発電・送電コストの 25％以下の地点が 78 箇所存在し、その規

模は合計で 564MW、年間発電量は 1,768GWh に達する。

パナイ島では 2004 年 2 月、再生可能エネルギーの導入を促進するためのフレー

ムワーク作りを狙いとした「持続可能なエネルギーに関する会議」が開催され

た。この会議ではパナイ島の新規電源として同島に豊富に賦存する再生可能エ

ネルギーを利用した発電システムの導入を進めるべきだとの確認がなされた。

JS - 1

３. 風力発電事業の実施に向けた予備的検討

(1) 風況と事業規模

WWF は、パナイ島ではアンティケ州北部のパンダン地区において特に風況が良

好であり、フィリピンの民間デベロッパーと共同で 2004 年 2 月から風況観測を

行っている。2004 年 9 月までの風況データによれば平均風速は 6.1m/s（地上高

40m）である。これを年換算すると 7.0m/s（地上高 50m）程度は期待できる。

パンダン地区で風力開発に利用できる土地は全部で 33km2 とされているが、こ

の土地には保護地区も含まれ、特に保護地区内の風力エネルギー賦存量が多い。

WWF は、この点を考慮して、発電電力の最大値は 106MW 程度、開発可能な電

力は実質 59MW とみている。

風力開発規模としては、中長期的な電力需要、系統容量、風況、立地条件など

を総合的に勘案して決定する。2012 年時点の最大電力需要が 365MW と見込ま

れていることから、この 5％程度、すなわち 20MW 程度をパンダン地区の開発

規模と想定するのが妥当と考えられる。

(2) 適用風車と推定概算事業費

風力発電では同一単機容量の発電機を複数台設置することによって、発電出力

の安定性と経済性を確保するのが通常である。単機容量としては、風力技術の

進歩（特に低風速域での発電量の増加）、経済性の向上、プロジェクトサイト

立地上の制約条件などを総合的に考慮し、1,000kW クラスの単機容量の適用を

仮定する。開発規模 20MW の場合、単機容量 1,000kW の発電機設置台数は 20

台になる。

風車本体は単機容量ごとに国際市場価格が形成されており、標準仕様であれば

容量が決まれば大きなぶれもなく単価が決まるといってよい状況にある。風車

本体以外については、特に地形・地質条件によって風車基礎構造が大きく左右

され、さらに既存電力系統との連系条件によっては、変電所や送電線のコスト

が大きな影響を受ける。

総事業費の概略的な推定にあたって 1,600 米ドル /kW 程度として、総事業費は

32 百万米ドル（110 円 /米ドルとして 35.2 億円）、運転保守コストは建設コスト

の 1%相当額を年間費用として 0.32 百万米ドル（0.35 億円）程度を見込んだ。

(3) 資金調達（STEP の活用）

円借款事業では、我が国の優れた技術やノウハウを活用し途上国への技術移転

を通じて我が国の「顔の見える援助」を促進するため、「本邦技術活用条件」

（STEP）が設けられている。この STEP がフィリピン国に適用される場合、借

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入条件は、年金利 0.40％、償還期間 40 年（内据置期間 10 年）となる。予備的

に検討する事業化可能性においては、総事業費の 20％を PNOC-EDC の自己資金

でまなかい、残り 80％に対し JBIC の STEP が適用されると仮定した。

(4) 経済性、発電量、CO2 削減量

年間発電量、経済性、温室効果ガス発生量などを概略計算したところ、年間発

電量は 56,062MWh、設備利用率は 32%であった。割引率を 15％に設定すると IRR

は 27.3%が確保でき、11.9 年で償還できるとの結果が得られた。もちろん、こ

れは試算参考値に過ぎず、条件設定次第で結果は大きく振れることに留意しな

ければならない。ベースラインとしてディーゼル発電を取り上げ、20MW 規模

の風力発電で同一電力量を発電する場合、ディーゼル発電に比べ二酸化炭素の

排出量を年間 5.1 万トン削減可能である。

(5) 環境面

風力発電の適用に伴って検討すべき環境関連事項として、騒音、鳥類、景観、

電波障害などがあるが、これらが本プロジェクトの実施または効果に影響を与

える可能性は極小と考えられる。しかしフィリピン国の環境面の規制ならびに

環境基準は先進国並みの厳しさであり、本格 F/S 実施時には、これらの点を慎

重に調査・検討し、軽微と考えられる懸念材料についても明らかにし、合わせ

てその対策案を提示する必要がある。

(6) 実施スケジュール

20MW 規模の風力発電所の建設期間は、EPC 契約の締結から引渡しまで 15 ヵ

月程度と推定される。一方、F/S が整っている状態でコンサルタント契約後に既

存 F/S のレビューを行い、その結果を入札図書の作成に反映させ、契約交渉の

補助などに要する期間は 7 ヵ月間程度とみられる。単純計算すれば合計所要期

間は 22 ヵ月であるが、コンサルタント契約や EPC 契約にかなりの時間がかか

るのが現実であり、余裕を見て実施スケジュールを組む必要がある。

本予備調査の結果を踏まえて、何らかのスキームで 2005 年中に F/S を終了させ

ることができれば、2006 年にプロジェクト実施のための各種手続きを行い、そ

の後 2 年間でプロジェクトを実施するというスケジュールが考えられる。この

スケジュールどおりに進められれば 2009 年から風力発電所が運転可能になる。

４. 期待される実施効果

本プロジェクトが事業化された場合、電力供給という社会経済発展、産業振興

に不可欠なインフラ整備への支援事業となり、プロジェクトの建設から長期間

の運用保守における地元住民の雇用創出、地域振興、新たな観光ルートの開拓

JS - 3

JS - 4

など、経済・社会効果は多方面に及ぶ。また、パンダン地区と地理的に近く風

況が同程度に良好とされるナバス地区を含めて一体として開発することによっ

て、スケールメリットが期待でき、事業化の可能性はさらに高まる。

パナイ系統の新規電源として風力発電という選択肢はきわめて妥当なものであ

り、パナイ系統の電力需給バランスに貢献するだけでなく、進行中の「北ルソ

ン風力発電事業」や F/S を終了した「南スリガオ州ヌベンタ風力」に続く我が

国の対フィリピン風力案件協力事業として期待される。

５. 提言

本プロジェクトは、フィリピン国政府が重要な政策目標としている「フィリピ

ンエネルギー計画 2004-2013 年」、「再生可能エネルギー政策フレームワーク」、

「パナイ緊急電力供給計画」などに示されている再生可能エネルギー開発の方

針に沿ったものであり、化石燃料への輸入依存度の低下と国産エネルギーの開

発に多大に貢献する。案件としての必要性は十分にあり実施効果も多大である。

よって、本格 F/S の実施を提言する。

以上

This work was subsidized by the Japan Keirin Association through its

Promotion funds from KEIRIN RACE.

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