The Power to Reduce CO 2 Emissions The Full Portfolio

1© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

The Power to Reduce CO2 EmissionsThe Full Portfolio

Energy Technology Assessment Center

Electric Power Research Institute


Presentation Objective…Answer Three Questions

• What is the technical potential for reducing U.S. electric sector CO2 emissions?

• What are the economic impacts of different technology strategies for reducing U.S. electric sector CO2 emissions?

• What are the key technology challenges for reducing electric sector CO2 emissions?


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

U.S

. Ele

ctri

c S

ecto

rC

O2 E

mis

sio

ns

(mill

ion

met

ric

ton

s)

Technology EIA 2008 Reference Target

Efficiency Load Growth ~ +1.05%/yr Load Growth ~ +0.75%/yr

Renewables 55 GWe by 2030 100 GWe by 2030

Nuclear Generation 15 GWe by 2030 64 GWe by 2030

Advanced Coal Generation

No Heat Rate Improvement for Existing Plants

40% New Plant Efficiency by 2020–2030

1-3% Heat Rate Improvement for 130 GWe Existing Plants

46% New Plant Efficiency by 2020; 49% in 2030

CCS None Widely Deployed After 2020

PHEV None10% of New Light-Duty Vehicle Sales

by 2017; 33% by 2030

DER < 0.1% of Base Load in 2030 5% of Base Load in 2030

Achieving all targets is very aggressive, but potentially feasible. AEO2007*(Ref)

AEO2008*(Early release)

AEO2008*(Ref)

*Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook (AEO)

Impact of efficiency measures in Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA2007)

2008 Prism...Technical Potential for CO2 Reductions


Generation Mix

Coalw/o CCS

39%

Advanced Coalw/CCS, 13%

Natural Gas5%

Nuclear29%

ConventionalHydropower

5%

Non-HydroRenewables, 9%

EPRI “Prism” Projected 2030 Generation Mix

EIA 2008 with Energy Bill – Projection for 2030

Petroleum, 1%

Coal, 58%

Natural Gas, 11%

Conventional Hydropower, 6% Non-Hydro Renewables, 5%

Nuclear, 19%

2007 U.S. Electricity Generation Mix

Petroleum, 1%

Coal, 51%

Natural Gas, 18%

Conventional Hydropower, 7%

Non-Hydro Renewables, 2%

Nuclear, 21%


The Scale of Electricity Demand

• 2007 U.S. electricity consumption ~ 3800 TWh

– NY metro area ~ 89 TWh/year (as of 2006)

• EIA 2008 Annual Energy Outlook

– Preliminary report projects 1150 TWh (30%) increase in U.S. electricity consumption by 2030.

– ~Equivalent to addition of 13 New York metro areas

– Greater than addition of new load equivalent to 2006 consumption of Texas, California, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania


The Scale of Electricity Demand

• Scale of generation

– One advanced light water nuclear plant (1400 MW, 90% CF) ~ 11 TWh

– One coal plant (500 MW, 80% CF) ~ 3.5 TWh

– One natural gas turbine (400 MW, 40% CF) ~ 1.4 TWh

– One 100 MW Wind Farm (100 1 MW Turbines, 40% CF) ~ 0.35 TWh

• Intensity of CO2 emissions

– One coal plant (500 MW, 80% CF) ~ 3-4 MMT CO2/yr.

• Depends on coal type, plant technology, heat rate

– Natural gas emits at ~ ½ intensity of coal

• LNG combustion can be ~50%-66% of CO2 intensity of coal, depending on source and supply chain.


• PRISM electric sector CO2

profile most closely modeled by economy-wide constraint which:

−Caps emissions at 2010 levels until 2020

−Requires 3% decline beginning in 2020

−37% of 2005 emissions levels by 2050

Representative U.S. Economy-Wide CO2 Constraint

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Bil

lio

n T

on

s C

O2 p

er y

ear

Starting Point is Current Intensity Target

2010 Cap to 2020

3% decline


Electricity Technology Scenarios

Full Portfolio Limited Portfolio

Supply-Side

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)

Available Unavailable

New NuclearProduction Can

ExpandExisting Production

Levels ~100 GW

Renewables Costs Decline Costs Decline Slower

New Coal and Gas Improvements Improvements

Demand-Side

Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV)

Available Unavailable

End-Use EfficiencyAccelerated

ImprovementsImprovements


Full Technology Portfolio Reduces Costs of a CO2 Emissions Reduction Policy by 60%

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

-1.5

Ch

ang

e i

n G

DP

Dis

cou

nte

d T

hro

ug

h 2

050

($T

rill

ion

s)

Cost ofPolicy

Reduction in Policy Cost with AdvancedTechnology

Value of R&D Investment

Lim

ited

Po

rtfo

lio

+ P

HE

V O

nly

+ R

enew

able

s O

nly

+ E

ffic

ien

cy O

nly

+ N

ucl

ear

On

ly

+ C

CS

On

ly

Fu

ll P

ort

folio

$1 T

rilli

on


Wholesale Electricity Price

Full

Limited

$/M

Wh*

Inde

x R

elat

ive

to Y

ear

2000

*Real (inflation-adjusted) 2000$Year

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

In the Full Portfolio the price of electricity has a low CO2 cost component and increases less

In the Full Portfolio the price of electricity has a low CO2 cost component and increases less


U.S. Electric Generation – Limited Portfolio

Gas (with half the CO2 of coal) pays a significant CO2 cost

Gas (with half the CO2 of coal) pays a significant CO2 cost

With a less de-carbonized supply, electricity load must decline to meet the CO2 emissions target

With a less de-carbonized supply, electricity load must decline to meet the CO2 emissions target

Biomass

Coal

Gas

Nuclear

Hydro

Wind


U.S. Electric Generation – Full Portfolio

Gas and non-captured coal are the only supply options paying a CO2 cost

Gas and non-captured coal are the only supply options paying a CO2 cost

The vast majority of electricity supply is CO2-free

The vast majority of electricity supply is CO2-free

Public Policy (e.g. RPS) can modify this economic allocation

Public Policy (e.g. RPS) can modify this economic allocation

Coal

Coal with CCS

Gas

Nuclear

HydroWind


+45%

Both Scenarios meet the same economy-wide CO2 Cap*Both Scenarios meet the same economy-wide CO2 Cap*

*Economy-wide CO2 emissions capped at 2010 levels until 2020 and then reduced at 3%/yr

Increase in Real Electricity Prices…2000 to 2050

+260%


Transition to Low-Emissions Technologies

• Expanded Advanced Light Water Reactor Deployment

• Enabling Efficiency, PHEVs, DER via the Smart Distribution Grid

• Enabling Intermittent Renewables via Advanced Transmission Grids

• Advanced Coal Plants with CO2 Capture and Storage


$1,000B

$30B

RD&D Investment(2005-2030, present value in 2000 $)

Avoided Cost to U.S. Economy

(2000-2050, present value in 2000 $)

RD&D is a Good Investment


Demonstration Projects

Hyper-efficient electric end-use technologies

Smart grids

Compressed air energy storage

PC with partial CCSTwo alternate capture technologies

IGCC with partial CCS

Lower-cost O2 production

2008 EPRI Priority…Analysis to Action

Technology Challenges

1. Enabling energy efficiency with efficient end-use technologies and smart grids

2. Enabling intermittent renewables with advanced transmission and energy storage

3. Deploying advanced light water reactors

4. Deploying CCS by 2020


The Full Portfolio: Lower CO2, Lower Prices

+45%

*Economy-wide CO2 emissions capped at 2010 levels until 2020 and then reduced at 3%/yr

+260%ConclusionsConclusions

• The potential to reduce emissions is there.The potential to reduce emissions is there.

• Development of a Full Portfolio of technologies substantially lowers the Development of a Full Portfolio of technologies substantially lowers the cost of reducing COcost of reducing CO22 emissions and helps keep electricity affordable. emissions and helps keep electricity affordable.

• Key technology challenges must be overcome to launch the Full Portfolio Key technology challenges must be overcome to launch the Full Portfolio of technologies.of technologies.

• Demonstration projects are essential to launching technology.Demonstration projects are essential to launching technology.

Image courtesy of Image courtesy of NASA Visible EarthNASA Visible Earth

The Power to Reduce CO 2 Emissions The Full Portfolio

Documents

Transcript of The Power to Reduce CO 2 Emissions The Full Portfolio