The Poverty Challenge in Northern Ireland Mike Tomlinson Sociology and Social Policy

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PSE in Northern Ireland

The Poverty Challenge in

Northern Ireland

Mike TomlinsonSociology and Social Policy

Queen’s University Belfast

CASE Social Exclusion SeminarLSE, 10th December 2003

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Why a PSE survey?

a) no publicly available income data (new earnings survey, LFS, FES, CHS)

b) no NI-wide poverty survey since Townsend (1968)

c) Robson and Noble multiple deprivation indexes and (new) Targeting Social Need

d) equality monitoring deficits e.g. social security data, religion, children

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a) to provide a baseline measurement of PSE in N. Ireland

b) to provide data on the extent to which poverty impacts across the nine dimensions of equality specified in Section 75 of the Northern Ireland Act 1998; and

c) to provide data which allow Northern Ireland to be compared with the results of the British PSE Survey, HBAI and poverty levels in the Republic of Ireland.

Key objectives:

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1. Income based measures

eg households below 50% mean or 60% median

2. Income and deprivation indicators combined

‘Consistent poverty’ measure ‘Consensual poverty’ measure

Measurement of poverty – two broad approaches

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Different equivalence scales

PSE NI weekly household incomes

Raw PSE McCl OECD RoI

Mean 370.1 304.8 343.9 221.3 205.7

Median 290.0 236.4 270.0 170.0 162.2

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PSE1 McClements2 Modified RoI (A) OECD

First Adult 0.70 0.61 1.0 1.00Spouse 0.30 0.39 0.5 0.66Other Second Adult 0.45 0.46 0.5 0.66Third Adult 0.45 0.42 0.5 0.66Subsequent Adults 0.45 0.36 0.5 0.66Children aged < 14yrs 0.35 0.20 0.3 0.33Children aged 14yrs + 0.30 0.30 0.5 0.33

Notes1. The PSE scale weights the first child at 0.35 and each additional child at 0.3.

If the head of the household is a lone parent 0.1 is added.2. The McClements scale has more age groups than shown above:

0-1 = 0.09; 2-4 = 0.18; 5-7 = 0.21; 8-10 = 0.23; 11-12 = 0.25; 13-15 = 0.27; 16 and over = 0.36.

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Proportion of persons in households below relative income thresholds using different equivalence scales

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1. Survey 1: which items are ‘necessities’?

2. Survey 2: necessities which people can’t afford

3. Select necessities which are robust indicators of deprivation

4. Maximise difference between ‘poor’ and ‘non-poor’ groups and minimise the difference within those groups

5. Produce poverty threshold

Steps in the consensual poverty measure

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Necessities – examples (1) Omnibus Have Can’t ‘necessary’ afford

FOOD Fresh fruit & veg every day 92 84 5

HOUSING Pay heating/electricity/’phone bills on time 99 91 8 Replace worn out furniture 79 67 28

CLOTHES Warm, waterproof coat 93 91 5 Good clothes for job interviews 86 85 6 New not 2nd hand clothes 62 91 6

INFORMATION Telephone 81 95 3

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Necessities – examples (2) Omnibus Have Can’t ‘necessary’ afford

DURABLE GOODS Replace/repair goods e.g. fridge, washing machine 95 75 23 Car 53 71 12

PERSONAL FINANCES Access to decent pension 94 57 24 Home contents insurance 89 78 12

SOCIAL Family days out 86 74 7 One weeks annual holiday away from home 60 57 24

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Which necessities do poor households lack?

%Replacing worn out furniture 77Regular savings (£10 per month) 72One week holiday 67Replacing/repairing fridge/washing machine 66Access to a decent pension 61

Enough to pay heating, electricity, phone bills on time 25Enough to keep home decently decorated 37Home contents insurance 35

Good clothes for job interviews 21Two pairs of strong shoes 20New not 2nd hand clothes 19Fresh fruit and veg every day 16Meal with meat or fish every other day 11

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Combining low income and deprivation

Living in Ireland – ‘consistent poverty’1 of 8 pre-determined items plus low income

(60 per cent of median)

PSE – ‘consensual poverty’3 of 29 items defined by popular consensus

plus low income

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29.6% of households were in poverty

37.4% of children were growing up in poor households

185,000 of Northern Ireland's households were in poverty

502,000 people were living in poor households

148,900 children were growing up in poor households

Baseline poverty measure:

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Poverty and Inequality – Section 75 [29.6]

Poverty rates by religion of HR

25% of Protestant households 36% of Catholic households (a ratio of 1:1.44)

by national identity (not a Section 75 dimension)

25% of ‘British’ households 37% of ‘Irish’ households

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Poverty and Inequality – Section 75… [29.6]

Poverty rates by political opinion

19% Ulster Unionist Party 30% SDLP 32% DUP 43% Sinn Féin (a ratio of 2.26:1UUP)

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Poverty rates by ‘race’

19% ethnic minority groups

by sexual orientation

48% same sex 44% bi-sexual

Not reliable or significant

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Poverty rates by age

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

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Poverty rates by marital status

21% married or cohabiting 39% single 46% divorced 54% separated 67% lone parents

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2. Poverty and Inequality – Section 75… [29.6]

Poverty rates by gender

25% of all men were living in poor households 29% of all women (a ratio of 1: 1.16)

Of all adults in poor households: 57 per cent were women

RESULTS

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Poverty rates by disability

56% households with one or more disabled people

29% households without disability (a ratio of 1.93:1)

100% of the households in which no-one was working and which contained someone sick or disabled

were in poverty

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Poverty rates, with or without dependants

36% childless households in which one adult was caring for another adult, in their own household or elsewhere (18% of all poor households)

32% households caring for children (19% of all poor households)

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Poverty and Inequality –

64% of individuals have below average incomes (60% in Britain).

Top 40% of households together possess 67% of the total household income

Gini coefficient for Northern Ireland:

1998/99 38

2002/03 42

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Northern Ireland compared – east/west

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Northern Ireland compared – east/west

Proportion of persons living in households below HBAI median income thresholds

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Northern Ireland compared – north/south

Proportion of persons in ‘consistent’ poverty (Ireland, North and South)

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Northern Ireland compared – north/south

Proportion of persons in ‘overall’ poverty – (Ireland, North and South)

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0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

RoI: Consistent <50% Mean*

RoI: Consistent <60% Mean*

GB: HBAI <60% Median

RoI: Overall <60% Median

GB: HBAI <50% Mean

RoI: Overall <50% Mean*

GB: HBAI <70% Median

PSE

RoI: Overall <70% Median

GB: HBAI <60% Mean

RoI: Overall <60% Mean*N. Ireland poverty rates, using different methods of calculation – proportions of persons (*households)

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Labour market exclusion

one worker29%

two worker35%

no workers, retired21%

no workers, sick/disabled

1%

no workers, unemployed/

other14%

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Poverty and conflict

Poverty rate Catholics Protestants

(36) (25)

Close relative killed 54 30

Personally injured 40 33

Relative injured 48 26

Witnessed murder 48 39

Witnessed 3 or more ‘troubles’ 42 25

Knows people killed & injured 47 24

Severe troubles experience 52 20

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Download report at

www.democraticdialogue.org

Online necessities questionnaire is at:

www.qub.ac.uk/ssp/webpages/pse.htm

The Poverty Challenge in Northern Ireland Mike Tomlinson Sociology and Social Policy

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