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Transcript of The Potential and Challenge of a Hydrogen-Electric Economy · Great Plains Institute Working on...
Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders
West Central CERTS MeetingNovember 22, 2005
Rolf NordstromRolf NordstromRolf NordstromRolf NordstromUpper Midwest Hydrogen Initiative
Great Plains Institute, MinneapolisGreat Plains Institute, MinneapolisGreat Plains Institute, MinneapolisGreat Plains Institute, Minneapolis
The Potential and Challenge of a Hydrogen-Electric Economy
Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders
Great Plains InstituteWorking on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders
Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders
Upper Midwest Hydrogen InitiativeUpper Midwest Hydrogen InitiativeUpper Midwest Hydrogen InitiativeUpper Midwest Hydrogen Initiative
Working on Tomorrow’s Solutions with Today’s Leaders
UMHI is an affiliate of the UMHI is an affiliate of the UMHI is an affiliate of the UMHI is an affiliate of the
National Hydrogen AssociationNational Hydrogen AssociationNational Hydrogen AssociationNational Hydrogen Association
Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders
What is the Upper Midwest H2 Initiative?
� Regional, public-private hydrogen and fuel cell partnership
� Founded in 2003
� Dedicated to accelerating commercialization of hydrogen and fuel cells.
Serving Manitoba, the Dakotas, Minnesota Iowa and WisconsinA public-private venture of the nonprofit Great Plains Institute
UMHI Region
Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders
Current Membership
1. 3M 2. Broin Companies3. Distributed Generation
Solutions, Inc.4. Donaldson Company5. Energy and Environmental
Research Center, UND6. Energy Center of Wisconsin7. Entegris – Fuel Cells8. ePower Synergies, Inc.9. Initiative on Renewable
Energy & the Environment, U of M
10.Kraus Global, Inc.11.Minnesota Corn Growers
Association12.Moorhead Public Service (a
municipal utility)13.Manitoba Energy Development
Initiative14.North Dakota Wind expert15.Padilla Speer Beardsley16.R4 Energy17.South Dakota State University18.Xcel Energy
Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders
OutlineOutlineOutlineOutline
1. Primer on hydrogen and fuel cells
2. Commercialization timeline
3. Activity in other states and nations
4. Implications for MN Ford prototype fuel cell vehicle
[ ]
Hydrogen Has Been Called the Perfect FuelHydrogen Has Been Called the Perfect Fuel
��Most abundant elementMost abundant element
��Found in water, fossil fuels, all Found in water, fossil fuels, all
organic matter organic matter
��Colorless, odorless and nonColorless, odorless and non--
toxic.toxic.
��Burns cleanBurns clean
��Produces only heat, electricity Produces only heat, electricity
and water vapor when used in and water vapor when used in
fuel cellsfuel cells
[ ]
Energy “Currencies” Allow Energy Transactions To Take PlaceEnergy “Currencies” Allow Energy Transactions To Take Place
��Hydrogen is an energy Hydrogen is an energy
CARRIER not an energy CARRIER not an energy
sourcesource
�Electricity transition began 100 years ago
�Hydrogen is the “2nd
Currency”
�Electricity and hydrogen are interchangeable
[ ]
Why all the talk about hydrogen?Why all the talk about hydrogen?
� ENVIRONMENTAL STEWARDSHIP
� ENERGY SECURITY
� ECONOMIC PROSPERITY
Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders
Why Hydrogen?
• Domestic and inexhaustible
• Pollution-free if produced/w renewable and climate-friendly methods.
• Huge potential “peace dividend”
• “Hydrogen could replace all gasoline and eliminate almost all CO2
emissions”
— National Research Council, 2004
Oil ConsumptionConsumptionConsumptionConsumption Increasing:
-CAFE increases include light trucks
-Beyond 2020, EIA data extrapolated
Million barrels per day
ProjectedActual
Domestic Production
NHTSA Proposal
20% CAFE Increase
(=28.8 mpg)Transportation
Oil Use 40% CAFE Increase
(=33.6 mpg)
60% CAFE Increase
(=38.4 mpg)
0
5
10
15
20
25
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Plus ANWR(Ref. EIA SR/O&G/2000-02,
and USGS Report 98-34)
ProjectedActual
Domestic Production
Transportation Oil Use
Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders
End of Cheap Oil
"The time when we could count on cheap oil and even cheaper natural gas is clearly ending,"
— Dave O'Reilly, CEO ChevronTexaco, 2005
Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders
Inexhaustible Energy Cycle
H2 burned orused in fuel cell
PowerHeat
Water vapor
H2 from biomassor water
Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders
Hydrogen Already Here . . .Sort of
• U.S. produces 9 million tons/year
• 95% from
natural gas
• 8% of U.S. natural gas goes for H2
• Globally, that number is 50 million tons/year
• Global production is growing 6-7% per year
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How is hydrogen used now?
• 95% used on-site for oil refining or fertilizer production
• Remaining 5% sold for range of minor uses
• Space program
How Hydrogen is Used Now
Oil refining
or fertilizer
production
95%
Other uses
5%
Oil refining orfertilizer production
Other uses
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What are the potential uses of hydrogen?
It could provide electricity, heat and transportation fuel throughout the economy
PortableStationary
Vehicles
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How Safe is Hydrogen?
• NASA scientist finds hydrogen NOT to blame for Hindenburg.
• Clear flame can’t sear you at a distance
• No smoke.
• Hard to make explode; can’t explode in free air; burns first.
Coated skin ignited, not H2
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How Safe is Hydrogen?
• Fuel leak simulation
– hydrogen on left
– gasoline on right
– equivalent energy
release
3 seconds
1 minute
H2 Gasoline
From: M.R. Swain, Fuel Leak Simulation, University of Miami,
Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders
Hydrogen is safe;sometimes safer
• Rises and disperses quickly
• No relation to hydrogen bombs
• Ford study concluded it’s as safe as other fuels; safer in many situations.
NREL picture of H2 flame
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Sources of Hydrogen
• Non-Renewable:
• Natural gas
• Coal
• Gasoline
• Renewable:
• Biomass
– Ethanol, methane, glycerol
– Gasification
• Water via electrolysis
Does it take more energy than it yields?
70-75% *Hydrogen from water electrolysis
72-85% *
75-80%
Hydrogen from natural gas (SMR)
Hydrogen from ethanol
29–35%Electricity from coal
73-91%Gasoline from oil(wellhead to pump)
EfficiencyEnergy Production
* Minus 15% to reflect lower heating value & allow fair comparison
End-use efficiency is worth it
33%US electric grid
15-20%Internal combustion engine
80–90%Pure hydrogen FC –electricity + hot water use
40-65%Pure hydrogen FC –electricity only
EfficiencyPower system
[ ]
Long Term Vision: Hydrogen From Renewable EnergyLong Term Vision: Hydrogen From Renewable Energy
$6 - 7
$2 - 3
$9 - 10
$6.18$7.00
$3.60
$2.25$1.75 $2.10 $1.75
0
2
4
6
8
10
Wind Solar Biomass Coal* Natural Gas**
NRC 2004 Price Data – Today vs. Potential
( Units = $US/per kg )
Renewable Energy
Today Potential
65%
80%
Electrolyzer Eff.
* Centralized with sequestration**Centralized
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What are fuel cells?
• Electrolysis in reverse
• Runs like a battery, but doesn’t run down as long as it’s supplied with fuel
• Highly efficient
• No emissions other than water and heat
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Where did fuel cells come from?
• First one in 1839 -Sir William Grove
• Serious interest in U.S. in 1960s
• Provide electricity & water for space shuttle.
Fuel Cell StackFuel Cell Stack
Single Single
Fuel Fuel
Cell Cell
PEM Fuel Cells Primer
Fuel Cells produce electricity through the electrochemical oxidation of hydrogen.
Source – US Fuel Cell Council
Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders
Benefits of Fuel Cells?
• Zero harmful emissions
• 2 X efficiency of traditional engines
• Wide range of applications
• Quiet “good neighbor”
• Can be scaled to many sizes
• No moving parts
• High quality power
• Mini power plants
[ ]
Where Are We With Fuel Cells Today?Where Are We With Fuel Cells Today?
Cost:
� Today, many fuel cells cost about $3,000/kW
� Stationary power generation requires $800/kW
� Transportation requires $50/kW to compete with the gasoline ICE
Durability:
� Vehicles need 5,000 hr lifetime
� Primary stationary power needs 50,000 hr (Emergency power: only 5,000 hr)
� Today, the “head of the pack”is about halfway to bothdurability targets
Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders
North American fuel cell market potential
By 2007:
$2.1 billion
By 2010:
$14.5 billion
(Price Waterhouse-Coopers)
Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders
When might youbuy a fuel cell vehicle?
• Every major automaker racing to
be first; GM says by 2010
• Others think longer or never
• Honda, Toyota leasing small
numbers already
• First vehicles are fleets
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Do any hydrogen vehicles exist today?
• Every major automaker has prototypes
• 100s of cars on the road
• More than 30 buses
• 35 Priuses being converted to run on hydrogen
• 1st fuel cell family: Jon and Sandy Spallino of Redondo Beach, California
GM’s Sequel Fuel Cell Vehicle
300 mile range
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What are other states are doing?
• At least 18 states have programs of some kind
–Financial assistance for pilots
–Tax incentives
–Renewable Portfolio Standards
Transitional Phases
I. Technology Development Phase
II. Initial Market Penetration Phase
III. Infrastructure Investment Phase
IV. Fully Developed Market and Infrastructure Phase
Strong Government
R&D Role
Strong Industry
Commercialization Role
2000
20
20
2010
20
30
2040
PhaseI
PhaseII
PhaseIII
PhaseIV
RD&D I
Transition to the Marketplace
Commercialization Decision
II
Expansion of Markets and Infrastructure III
Realization of the Hydrogen Economy IV
Fuel cell vehicles in the showroom and hydrogen at filling stations by 2020
How Soon?
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Efforts around the World
• Europe $2.8 billion (2015)
• Canada $256 million
• U.S. $1.7 billion (5 yrs)
• Japan Tripled since ‘95
• Iceland Switch to H2 by 2030
• International Partnership for the Hydrogen Economy (IPHE) launched in Nov. 2004
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Regional Strengths in Hydrogen Production
Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders
“Early adopter”niche markets
• Agricultural vehicles
• Airport vehicles
• Delivery vehicles (e.g., UPS, FedEx, U.S. Postal Service)
• Fork lifts
• Large private fleets
• Municipal electric utilities
• Ice resurfacing equipment
• Small truck fleets
• Government fleets
• Transit buses and shuttles
• University fleets
• Vehicles with unregulated air emissions
WWW.ePowerSynergies.com
10
100
1000
10000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Fuel Cell Power Pack Cost
Source: Goepel McDermid, Energy Technology
Perspectives,2000
Modified 5/2002
Un
it P
rod
uct
Co
st
US
$/k
W
Price-insensitive industrial applications 5000
Portable power 3500
50
Transportation auxiliary power
Cars
Distributed industrial/commercial power
Distributed residential power500
200 Utility Vehicle
PDV
Ice Refinishers
Trucks & Buses
Compact Tractor
Other off-road vehicles
Lawn Tractor
Commercial Mower
Military
Lift trucks
Hydrogenics purchase price history/forecast
Fuel Cell “Ice Bear”
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Developing Hydrogen Infrastructure
• “. . .the committee strongly suggests that the [hydrogen] transition be progressed with small, on-site hydrogen production systems at the filling station. . .”
National Research Council and National Academy of Engineering, 2004
Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders
The “Northern H”:Flexible-Fuel H2 Highway Network
• 10-year effort to establish transitional H2 infrastructure
• Supports nearby on- or off-road fleet vehicles
• Tests variety of hydrogen production options
• Enables launch of H2-powered vehicles & builds demand
• Eventually links major cities and other Hydrogen Highway efforts
• Benefits all 6 UMHI jurisdictions
Northern H network
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Flexible-fuel Hydrogen Stations
As transition infrastructure, the Northern H stations could offer:– Gasoline
– E-85
– Bio-diesel
– Hydrogen
– Stationary fuel cell
Existing E-85 station
5000 PSI H2 station
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Northern H Already Enjoys Strong Support
• Supported by 8 U.S. Senators & key House member
• Endorsed by EPRI
(Electric Power Research Inst.)
• In line with Nat’l. Research Council’s recommendations to Congress
Northern H network
Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders
What Customers will the Northern H Serve?
1. Conventional and hybrid ICE vehicles.
2. Flexible-fuel vehicles
3. Vehicles running on diesel and biodiesel
4. Dedicated H2 fleets.
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Any hydrogen fueling stations now?
• California has 16 stations
• 1 public station in Washington DC
• 87 stations exist worldwide
• 170 new stations planned (CA, DC, FL, NV, NY)
• CA FL, IL, NY, Canada, Japan and Norway have “H2 highway” projects
H2 Highway in BC
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Hybrid ICE-Electric Hydrogen Bus
Courtesy of UMHI Manitoba Energy Development Initiative
What is the HHICE Bus?
Hydrogen Gas Storage Tanks
Driver Position
Ultracapacitors
Electronic Controllers and Cooling
Hydrogen Capable Ford V10 Triton Engine and Generator
Modified New Flyer Bus Glider (40 ft low floor)
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Winnipeg’s Refueling Infrastructure
• Stuart Energy mobile refuellingtrailer– Electrolysis system
– 25 kg per day capacity
• Kraus Global, Inc. hydrogen dispenser
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5.5 mi/kg => $36,000/yr
$600,000 (in production)
H2 Hybrid ICE
$30,000, assuming 7 mi/kg
$2.5 Million
(4 prototypes)
ISE Hybrid FCB
25,000 kg = > $100,000???
$2.5 Million?CUTE
5000 kg x $4/kg =$20,000
$1.7 Million
(prototype)
Thor/ISE Fuel Cell Bus
@ 3.5 mi/gal, $14,000-$28,000
$350,000Diesel transit bus
Fuel cost/yr
(50,000 mi/yr)
Vehicle CostVehicle
Bus and Fuel Costs*ISE Corporation, 2005
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Hydrogen/Fuel Cell Projects in Minnesota
Minneapolis MN PV to H2 Demo
Rochester MN Utility Small Fuel Cell
Eden Prairie MN Fuel Cell Demo at Library
Chaska MN Fuel Cell Demo
Princeton MN Methane to Fuel Cell
Glyndon MN Plug Power GenCore FC
Albertville MN Plug Power GenCore FC
Fosston MN H2 from methane digester
Colleraine MN H2 from biomass gasification
Morris MN H2 from wind electroysis
Statwide MN Identify prioirty demo projects for MN legislature
Koochicing CountyMN MSW to H2 and other fuels
SOURCE: Minnesota Department of Commerce
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Implications for Minnesota
1. World events suggest an urgent need to develop alternatives to gasoline
2. Minnesota is heavily dependent on outside sources of energy
3. The state has enormous potential for renewable hydrogen production
4. Our experience with E-85 suggests we could be leaders in hydrogen too
5. Significant cluster of fuel cell components manufacturers
6. Governor wants MN to become “Capitol of Renewable Energy”
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How does H2 fit in larger energy transition?
• Near to mid-term: H2 RD&D, greater efficiency, more renewables, and improved conventional technologies
• Longer-term (15 to 50 years): Hydrogen becomes a major energy carrier alongside electricity. Solves climate, pollution and oil dependence problems.
[ ]
Significant Challenges Lie AheadSignificant Challenges Lie Ahead
�Hydrogen Storage
�Reliable, Low-Cost Fuel Cells
�Fueling Infrastructure
�Safety Codes & Standards
�Education
�Funding
�State & Local Involvement
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Stone Age Didn’t End for Lack of Stones
"I believe fuel cell vehicles will finally end the hundred-year reign of the internal combustion engine. . .”
– William C. Ford, Jr., Ford
Chairman, International Auto Show, January 2000
Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders
Thank you!
Rolf NordstromDirector, UMHI
Great Plains Institute 2801 21st Avenue, South, Suite 230Minneapolis, MN 55407www.gpisd.netwww.umhi.org
612-278-7156 651-246-9386 (mobile)[email protected]
H2 station in
Amsterdam
Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders
ResourcesResourcesResourcesResources
• Upper Midwest Hydrogen Initiative: www.umhi.org
• UofM’s Initiative for Renewable Energy & the Env.: http://www1.umn.edu/iree
• National Hydrogen Association: www.hydrogenus.com
• DOE Hydrogen & Fuel Cell program: http://www.eere.energy.gov/hydrogenandfuelcells
• U.S. Fuel Cell Council: http://www.usfcc.com
• “20 Hydrogen Myths” by Amory Lovins: www.rmi.org