The Population-Poverty Nexus
34
The Population-Poverty Nexus The Philippines in Comparative East Asian Context Arsenio M. Balisacan Director, SEARCA Professor, UP School of Economics Manila Peninsula Hotel, Makati City 10 August 2004 Presented at the Book Launch cum Lecture of The Ties That Bind: Population and Development in the Philippines
Transcript of The Population-Poverty Nexus
The
Popu
latio
n-Po
vert
y N
exus
The
Phili
ppin
es in
Com
para
tive
East
Asi
an C
onte
xt
Ars
enio
M. B
alis
acan
Dire
ctor
, SEA
RCA
Prof
esso
r, U
P Sc
hool
of
Econ
omic
s
Man
ila P
enin
sula
Hot
el, M
akat
iCity
10 A
ugus
t 200
4
Pres
ente
d at
the
Book
Lau
nch
cum
Le
ctur
e of
�Th
e Ti
es T
hat
Bin
d:
Pop
ula
tion
an
d D
evel
opm
ent
in t
he
Ph
ilip
pin
es�
Bas
ed o
n th
e St
udy
The
Popu
latio
n-Ec
onom
y-Po
verty
Lin
ks: A
Q
uant
itativ
e A
sses
smen
t
by
Ars
enio
Bal
isac
an, D
enni
s Map
a,
and
Cha
risse
Tub
iano
sa
in a
ssoc
iatio
n w
ithLe
onar
do L
anzo
naR
osem
arie
Edi
llon
Fina
l Rep
ort p
repa
red
for t
he P
hilip
pine
Cen
terf
or P
opul
atio
n an
d D
evel
opm
ent,
2003
Com
paris
on o
f key
eco
nom
ic in
dica
tors
of
sele
cted
Asi
an c
ount
ries
The
popu
latio
n de
bate
and
the
dem
ogra
phic
tr
ansi
tion
Stud
ies
on th
e po
pula
tion-
econ
omy-
pove
rty
nexu
sEs
timat
es fr
om th
e ec
onom
etric
mod
elSi
mul
atio
n re
sults
Con
clus
ions
Org
aniz
atio
n
The
Phili
ppin
es in
Eas
t Asi
a� G
DP
per c
apita
19
50
-
2,0
00
4,0
00
6,0
00
8,0
00
10
,00
0
12
,00
0
USA Si
ngap
ore Ho
ng K
ong
Japa
nM
alay
sia PH
ILIP
PINE
STa
iwan
Kore
a Indo
nesi
aTh
ailan
d
Chin
a
19
75
-2,0
00
4,0
00
6,0
00
8,0
00
10,0
00
12,0
00
14,0
00
16,0
00
18,0
00
20,0
00
USA
Japa
n Hong
Kon
g Sing
apor
eTa
iwan
Mala
ysia
Kore
a PHIL
IPPI
NES
Thail
and In
done
sia
Chin
a
20
00
-5
,00
01
0,0
00
15
,00
02
0,0
00
25
,00
03
0,0
00
35
,00
0
USA Ho
ng K
ong Si
ngap
ore
Japa
nTa
iwan
Kore
aM
alays
iaTh
aila
nd
Chin
a PHIL
IPPI
NES In
done
sia
Pove
rty
redu
ctio
n in
Eas
t Asi
a
0102030405060
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
% Poor
Chin
aIn
done
sia
Thai
land
Philip
pine
sV
ietn
am
No
te: P
ove
rty
esti
ma
tes
ba
sed
on
a p
ove
rty
lin
e o
f U
S$1
/da
y p
er
per
son
.
% p
oor
GD
P &
Pop
ulat
ion
Gro
wth
Rat
es fo
r Sel
ect
Cou
ntrie
s, %
per
yea
r
4.1
2.36
8.0
1.87
8.8
1.58
9.9
1.20
0246810
Phili
ppin
esIn
done
siaTh
aila
ndK
orea
, Rep
.
Per c
apita
GDP
gro
wth,
197
5-20
00Po
pula
tion
grow
th ra
te
Popu
latio
n G
row
th R
ates
: Tha
iland
vs
Phili
ppin
es
0
0.51
1.52
2.53
3.5
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Phi
lippi
nes
Thai
Com
paris
on o
f Key
Indi
cato
rs
3.6
3.0
Elde
rly P
opul
atio
n G
row
th
-0.3
1.7
Yout
h Po
pula
tion
Gro
wth
2.5
2.8
Wor
kers
Pop
ulat
ion
Gro
wth
1.6
2.4
Tota
l Pop
ulat
ion
Gro
wth
Thai
land
Phili
ppin
es
Inco
me
per P
erso
n: T
haila
nd v
sPh
ilipp
ines
(in
US$
PPP
)
0
1,00
0
2,00
0
3,00
0
4,00
0
5,00
0
6,00
0
7,00
0
8,00
0 1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
PHIL
- Act
ual
THA
I
Dyn
amic
and
con
tent
ious
Con
sequ
ence
s of
pop
ulat
ion
grow
th o
n ec
onom
ic d
evel
opm
ent
Doe
s po
pula
tion
grow
th c
urta
il or
pro
mot
e ec
onom
ic g
row
th?
Or i
s it
inde
pend
ent f
rom
ec
onom
ic g
row
th?
The
Popu
latio
n D
ebat
e
In th
e 19
90s,
the
popu
latio
n de
bate
shi
fted
from
the
issu
e of
pop
ulat
ion
grow
th to
the
age
stru
ctur
e of
the
popu
latio
n.
Indi
vidu
als
have
var
ied
econ
omic
beh
avio
rs a
t diff
eren
t st
ages
in li
fe.
The
youn
g re
quire
inte
nsiv
e in
vest
men
t in
heal
th a
nd
educ
atio
n, p
rime-
age
adul
ts s
uppl
y la
bor a
nd s
avin
gs,
the
aged
requ
ire h
ealth
car
e an
d re
tirem
ent i
ncom
e.
The
natio
n�s
age
stru
ctur
e ha
s an
impo
rtant
impa
ct o
n its
eco
nom
ic p
erfo
rman
ce.
The
Popu
latio
n D
ebat
e
Dem
ogra
phic
Tra
nsiti
on
�� is
a c
hang
e fro
m a
situ
atio
n of
hig
h fe
rtilit
y an
d hi
gh m
orta
lity
to o
ne o
f low
fe
rtilit
y an
d lo
w m
orta
lity.
�
Popu
latio
ngr
owth
rate
time
deat
h ra
te
Birt
h ra
te
The
Dem
ogra
phic
Tra
nsiti
on
Phas
es o
f the
Dem
ogra
phic
Tra
nsiti
on
Phas
e 1.
Trig
gere
d by
initi
al d
eclin
e in
infa
nt m
orta
lity,
th
e yo
uth
depe
nden
cy g
roup
sw
ells
.
Male
Fem
ale
Phas
e 2.
Econ
omic
gro
wth
pro
mot
ed a
bout
20
year
s la
ter
whe
n th
e yo
uth
ente
rs t
he w
orki
ng
age
grou
p. Male
Fem
ale
Male
Fem
ale
Phas
e 3.
Econ
omic
gro
wth
may
or
may
not
be
impe
ded
as th
e el
derly
coh
ort s
wel
ls. I
t app
ears
th
at a
ris
ing
elde
rly s
hare
doe
s no
t de
pres
s no
r el
evat
e th
e ra
te o
f eco
nom
ic g
row
th.
Mal
eFe
mal
e
Mal
eFe
mal
e
Mal
eFe
mal
e
Phas
e 1
-Phi
lippi
nes
Phas
e 2
-Tha
iland
Phas
e 3
�Ja
pan
Find
ings
from
Ear
lier S
tudi
es
Dem
ogra
phic
cha
nges
follo
win
g W
orld
War
II w
orke
d in
fa
vor o
f mor
e ra
pid
grow
th in
Eas
t Asi
an c
ount
ries.
1
Abou
t one
-third
of E
ast A
sia�
s ec
onom
ic g
row
th is
at
trib
utab
le to
dem
ogra
phic
influ
ence
s.2
Had
all
coun
trie
s re
duce
d ne
t fer
tility
by
five
birt
hs p
er
thou
sand
wom
en in
the
1980
s, th
e po
vert
y in
cide
nce
wou
ld
have
bee
n re
duce
d by
a th
ird, f
rom
18.
9 pe
rcen
t (on
e in
ev
ery
five)
to 1
2.6
perc
ent (
one
in e
very
eig
ht).3
1Sa
chs
et. a
l. (1
997)
, Eco
nom
ic G
row
th in
Asi
a (1
965-
1990
).2
Bloo
m a
nd W
illiam
son
(199
7) a
nd B
loom
, Can
ning
and
Mal
aney
(199
8) o
n P
opul
atio
n D
ynam
ics
and
Econ
omic
Gro
wth
in A
sia
(196
5-19
90).
3Ea
stw
ood
and
Lipt
on (2
000)
.
The
Cro
ss-C
ount
ry E
cono
met
ric M
odel
Inve
stig
ated
the
rela
tions
hip
betw
een
popu
latio
n gr
owth
and
the
dem
ogra
phic
tran
sitio
n, o
n th
e on
e ha
nd, a
nd e
cono
mic
gro
wth
and
pov
erty
, on
the
othe
r, us
ing
cros
s-co
untry
dat
a fro
m 1
975
to 2
000
and
Philip
pine
pro
vinc
ial p
anel
dat
a fr
om 1
985
to
2000
.
Sim
ulat
ion
tech
niqu
es w
ere
used
to q
uant
ify th
e co
ntrib
utio
n of
pop
ulat
ion
grow
th to
the
obse
rved
di
ffere
nce
betw
een
the
Philip
pine
s� G
DP
per p
erso
n an
d Th
aila
nd�s
.
The
data
set
con
sist
ed o
f 80
deve
lope
d an
d de
velo
ping
eco
nom
ies.
The
Econ
omet
ric M
odel
Pove
rty
Red
uctio
n
�exp
ansi
on
of th
e pi
e�
(Gro
wth
C
hann
el) �d
ivis
ion
of th
e pi
e�
(Red
istr
ibut
ion
Cha
nnel
)
Popu
latio
n G
row
th�
Wor
kers
�Yo
uth
�O
ld
Det
erm
inan
ts o
f G
row
th�
Educ
atio
n�
Hea
lth�
Econ
omic
cl
imat
e/O
penn
ess
�Sa
ving
�In
itial
Con
ditio
ns�
Inst
itutio
ns
Inco
me
Gro
wth
Dire
ct
Effe
ct
Exte
rnal
ities
Dire
ct
Effe
ct
Rev
erse
C
ausa
lity
Rev
erse
C
ausa
lity
Con
trib
utio
n of
Pop
ulat
ion
Dyn
amic
s to
Ec
onom
ic G
row
th
C
ount
ry
Av
erag
e G
row
th
(GD
P pe
r per
son,
%)
N
et C
ontri
butio
n of
Pop
ulat
ion
(%)
Philip
pine
s 4.
10
1.06
Thai
land
8.
84
1.83
Indo
nesi
a 7.
98
1.27
Sout
h Ko
rea
9.90
1.
66
Not
e: E
stim
ates
of G
DP
per p
erso
n ar
e in
pur
chas
ing
pow
er p
arity
(PPP
).
Som
e H
ighl
ight
s of
the
Stud
y
Tota
l Pop
ulat
ion
Gro
wth
Rat
e ha
s a
nega
tive
and
sign
ifica
nt im
pact
on
econ
omic
gro
wth
.
Wor
kers
� Pop
ulat
ion
Gro
wth
has
a p
ositi
ve a
nd
sign
ifica
nt im
pact
on
econ
omic
gro
wth
.
Aver
age
Life
Exp
ecta
ncy
at B
irth
(a p
roxy
for h
ealth
) ha
s a
posi
tive
and
sign
ifica
nt im
pact
on
econ
omic
gr
owth
.
Ope
nnes
s to
trad
e ha
s a
posi
tive
and
sign
ifica
nt
impa
ct o
n ec
onom
ic g
row
th.
Qua
lity
of P
ublic
Inst
itutio
ns h
as a
pos
itive
and
si
gnifi
cant
impa
ct o
n ec
onom
ic g
row
th.
Why
the
Phili
ppin
es G
rew
Slo
w�
Tota
l Gro
wth
Diff
eren
tial
Actu
al G
DP
per c
apita
gro
wth
Varia
ble
Phili
ppin
esTh
aila
ndFo
rego
ne
Gro
wth
(%)
Initi
al C
ondi
tions
1.
072
GD
P pe
r per
son,
197
515
0280
5R
atio
of W
orke
rs to
Tot
al P
opul
atio
n53
.76
52.1
2
Popu
latio
n G
row
th0.
768
Tota
l2.
361.
58W
orke
rs
2.85
2.53
OPE
NN
ESS
64.3
067
.96
0.02
8 SA
VIN
G R
ATE
22.0
328
.02
0.20
6 H
uman
Cap
ital I
:Av
erag
e LE
B (1
976
�20
00)
64.3
966
.11
0.07
2 H
uman
Cap
ital I
I:Ill
itera
cy R
ate
(Ave
rage
, 197
6 -2
000)
7.93
5.58
0.11
6
INST
ITU
TIO
N2.
976.
260.
574
TRO
PIC
11
0.00
0
(Acc
ount
ed b
y M
odel
)2.
836
(ave
rage
in p
erce
nt, 1
975-
2000
)4.
100
8.84
04.
740
Wha
t if t
he P
hilip
pine
s fo
llow
ed
Thai
land
�s P
opul
atio
n G
row
th
Path
from
197
5 to
200
0?
Wha
t is
the
Impa
ct o
n Ec
onom
ic G
row
th?
Addi
tiona
l inc
reas
e of
at l
east
0.7
6% p
er y
ear,
for
the
perio
d 19
75 t
o 20
00,
on t
he a
vera
ge
inco
me
per p
erso
n
Cum
ulat
ive
incr
ease
of
ab
out
22%
on
th
e av
erag
e in
com
e pe
r per
son
in th
e ye
ar 2
000
Incr
ease
on
the
aver
age
inco
me
per p
erso
n in
th
e ye
ar 2
000
to U
S$ 4
,839
.00
from
US$
3,
971.
00 (i
n PP
P)
Actu
al a
nd S
imul
ated
Inco
me
per P
erso
n
0
1,00
0
2,00
0
3,00
0
4,00
0
5,00
0
6,00
0
7,00
0
8,00
0 1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
PH
IL-
Act
ual
PH
IL S
IMT
HA
I
Wha
t is
the
Impa
ct o
n Po
vert
y?
If th
e Ph
ilippi
nes h
ad
Tha
iland
�s
pop
ula
tion
grow
th:
Pove
rty in
cid
ence
wou
ld h
ave
been
5.
5 p
erce
nta
ge p
oint
s les
s
Mor
e pe
ople
wou
ld h
ave
been
b
roug
ht o
ut o
f pov
erty
, ab
out 3
.6
milli
on m
ore
Exte
ndin
g th
e Si
mul
atio
n to
Foc
us
on R
ural
Are
as�
Why
rura
l are
as?
!2
of e
very
3 p
oor p
erso
ns a
re lo
cate
d in
rura
l ar
eas;
dep
ende
nt m
ainl
y on
agr
icul
ture
for
inco
mes
.!
Even
urb
an p
over
ty is
larg
ely
spill
over
effe
cts
of ru
ral p
over
ty.
Savi
ngs
from
pro
visi
on o
f bas
ic e
duca
tion
and
heal
th s
ervi
ces
beca
use
of s
low
er p
opul
atio
n gr
owth
rate
s
Thes
e sa
ving
s w
ill b
e ch
anne
led
to th
e ru
ral
sect
or, p
artic
ular
ly a
gric
ultu
re
Slow
er P
opul
atio
n G
row
th in
the
R
ural
Are
as�
Incr
ease
in
pare
ntal
in
com
es
from
in
crea
ses
in
prod
uctiv
ityO
ther
fa
ctor
s
Slow
er
popu
latio
ngr
owth
savi
ngs
from
publ
ic
educ
atio
n
and
heal
th
Rur
al
inve
stm
ent
(Agr
iR&
D,
Irrig
atio
n,
Etc)
Pove
rty
Red
uctio
n
Pote
ntia
l sav
ings
Estim
ated
sav
ings
from
bas
ic e
duca
tion:
Php
128
billi
on o
ver a
per
iod
of 1
0 ye
ars
Estim
ated
sav
ings
from
bas
ic h
ealth
:Ph
p52
bill
ion
Very
con
serv
ativ
e es
timat
es
Pove
rty
Inci
denc
e in
the
Agri
Sect
or
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Yea
r 0Y
ear 1
Yea
r 2Y
ear 3
Yea
r 4Y
ear 5
Base
Sce
nario
: Sta
tus
quo
Sim
ulat
ed S
cena
rio 2
: ass
umes
a d
eclin
e in
pop
ulat
ion
and
an in
crea
se in
agr
icul
tura
l sec
tor i
nves
tmen
ts
Rur
al p
over
ty
inci
denc
e is
si
gnifi
cant
ly
redu
ced!
Pove
rty
inci
denc
e in
the
agri
sect
or
Sour
ces
of F
utur
e Po
pula
tion
grow
th
Unw
ante
d fe
rtili
ty (1
6%)
Wan
ted
fert
ility
(19%
)
Popu
latio
n m
omen
tum
(6
5%)
RES
PON
SE�
Fam
ily p
lann
ing
prog
ram
�C
reat
e so
cio-
econ
omic
con
ditio
ns
that
favo
r sm
alle
r fa
milie
s
�R
aisi
ng a
ge a
t firs
t bi
rth
�D
elay
ed a
ge a
t m
arria
ge
Popu
latio
n G
row
th
In c
oncl
usio
n�
Popu
latio
n gr
owth
mat
ters
in th
e ec
onom
ic p
erfo
rman
ce
and
pove
rty o
f nat
ions
.
!Ec
onom
ic g
row
th w
ould
hav
e be
en m
uch
fast
er a
nd p
over
ty
redu
ctio
n qu
icke
r if t
he P
hilip
pine
s ha
d Th
aila
nd�s
pop
ulat
ion
grow
th p
ath.
Hig
h po
pula
tion
grow
th is
not
the
sole
cul
prit
to th
e di
smal
pe
rform
ance
of t
he P
hilip
pine
eco
nom
y du
ring
the
last
25
year
s, b
ut it
is a
key
fact
or.
Nee
d fo
r a c
lear
pop
ulat
ion
polic
y ba
cked
by
stro
ng
gove
rnm
ent s
uppo
rt.
Than
k yo
u
