The Politics of International Aid Special Report

21st June 2011

By Mark Gettleson Head of Research, PoliticsHome

With Sean Kirwan, Dr Joel Faulkner Rogers and Freddie Sayers

www.politicshome.com

www.yougov.polis.cam.ac.uk

For more information, please contact mark.gettleson@politicshome.com

PoliticsHome worked with the think tank YouGov-Cambridge, which combines the leading opinion research of YouGov with Cambridge academics, to produce the first in-depth study into public attitudes towards the Coalition government’s international aid policy. All figures, unless otherwise stated, are from YouGov-Cambridge Total sample size was 2,206 adults. Fieldwork was undertaken between 14th-15th June 2011. The survey was carried out online. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all GB adults (aged 18+).

A polarised debate 3 in 10 voters have strong views on aid in principle, with slightly more strong opponents than strong supporters. The most significant group of soft ‘swing voters’ are those ‘somewhat favourable’ (30%).

11

30

17

21

17

Veryfavourable

Somewhatfavourable

Neitherfavourable norunfavourable

Somewhatunfavourable

Veryunfavourable

Generally speaking, how favourable or unfavourable are you towards the principal of international aid?

It’s an age thing

Older voters are far more likely to be opposed to the principle of international aid than younger voters.

15 14 16 23

11 18 22

26 18 18

19 13

29 33

29 30

16 12 11 7

18-24 25-39 40-59 60+

Very favourable

Somewhatfavourable

Neither favourablenor unfavourable

Somewhatunfavourable

Very unfavourable

a political thing Conservative voters are far more sceptical towards aid than Liberal Democrat or Labour supporters.

18 13 12

27

16 15

13

19 13

33

34 38

7 15 19

Conservative Labour Lib Dem

Very favourable

Somewhat favourable

Neither favourable nor unfavourable

Somewhat unfavourable

Very unfavourable

and a class thing Defined by work status and type as well as income levels and source, ABC1s support the principle of aid 48% to 33%. C2DEs are opposed 45% to 31%.

13 23

20

22 15

19

34

25

14 6

ABC1 C2DE

Very favourable

Somewhatfavourable

Neither favourablenor unfavourable

Somewhatunfavourable

Very unfavourable

If you don’t like it, it’s ‘foreign’ Those who support it call it ‘international aid’, or ‘international development’, while the majority of those opposed call it ‘foreign aid’.

Every year, the UK government sends resources to other countries with the aim of benefitting the country who receives these resources. Which of the following do you see as the best description for this policy?

16

27

7

35

49

22

34

20

53

Total Favourable towardsaid

Unfavourabletowards aid

International development

International aid

Foreign aid

Doubt about positives The only positive reasons for giving aid are seen as the direct consequences: improving diplomatic relations with countries whose help we might need – and the moral responsibility and setting an example. Arguments around fighting terrorism or lowering immigration are rejected.

+19

+5

-23

-28

-38 Reduces international terrorism by improving the security forces in developing countries

Reduces international terrorism by improving the lives of

ordinary citizens in developing countries

Reduces UK immigration by increasing job opportunities in home countries

International aid is our moral responsibility and sets an

example to other developed countries to increase their own international aid budgets

Improves diplomatic relations with countries in receipt of aid, whose support we may need in the future

Net agreement (disagree/agree)

But not about negatives The traditional arguments of international aid making matters in the third world worse by going to corrupt governments, who don’t care about their own people, seems much stronger than arguments that have emerged this year around the wrong projects being funded.

Net agreement (agree/disagree)

+62

+42

+33

+21

+13

Fails to reach ordinary people in the developedworld, and is wasted by corrupt governments

Discourages governments in developingcountries from spending money on their own

people

Enhances the power of bad governments indeveloping countries

Takes money away from the poor in developedcountries and gives it to the rich in developing

countries

Is spent on projects that don't deserve funding

Cameron’s aid policy is unpopular Ring-fencing and increasing aid is opposed 56% to 24%. Even those ‘somewhat favourable’ to the principle of aid only support the policy 40% to 38%. Those indifferent to aid oppose it 56% to 10%.

31

1 9

18

48

85 25

2

31

38

39

3

14

6

21

29

6 2

15

23

34

8 4 3 9

63

4 2 2 1

Total VeryFavourable to

aid

Somwhatfavourable to

aid

Neitherfavourable

norunfavourable

to aid

Somewhatunfavourable

to aid

Veryunfavourable

to aid

Very favourable

Somewhat favourable

Neither favourable nor unfavourable

Somewhat unfavourable

Very unfavourable

Along with spending on the NHS, the international aid budget is the only area of government spending that is not facing cuts. The government has promised to increase this budget by one third to 0.7% of Gross National Income (GNI), in line with international agreements signed previously. Generally speaking, how favourable or unfavourable are you towards this policy?

Lib Dems and richer Labour split Lib Dems and richer Labour voters are more evenly split on Cameron’s aid policy, 39% to 40% opposed and 36% to 44% opposed respectively. Poorer Labour voters, richer Conservatives and, in particular, poorer Conservatives, are overwhelmingly opposed.

16 19 33 31 37

24 25

23 30 29 14

18

15 13 13

23 21

14 19 14 16 14 10 5 4

Lib Dems Labour ABC1 Labour C2DE ConservativeABC1

ConservativeC2DE

Very favourable

Somewhat favourable

Neither favourable norunfavourable

Somewhat unfavourable

But the electoral maths are not good for Cameron and the Tories

David Cameron’s international aid policy makes nearly 4 in 10 voters less favourable towards him, including 1 in 4 ‘much less’ so – and fewer than 1 in 10 more favourable.

24 24 24

13 14 13

47 46 50

9 9 6 1 2 1

Coalitiongovernment

David Cameron Conservative Party

Much more favourable

A little more favourable

No change

A little less favourable

Much less favourable

Effect of aid policy on David Cameron’s favourability

It won’t make Labour voters like him Labour and Conservative voters both view David Cameron less favourably because of the policy. Labour C2DE voters are the most likely to view Cameron less favourably because of the aid increase, but it’s even damaging among ABC1s.

24 41

8 10

6

13

22 25

55

36

52 52

9 6 11

7 2 0

5 1

Labour ABC1 Labour C2DE ConservativeABC1

ConservativeC2DE

Much morefavourable

A little morefavourable

No change

A little lessfavourable

Much lessfavourable

Effect of aid policy on David Cameron’s favourability

Lib Dems slightly more responsive The increased aid budget does make Liberal Democrat voters slightly more favourable towards the Coalition and (very slightly) towards Cameron – but not towards the Conservative Party.

Effect of policy on favourability among Liberal Democrats

10 14 15 9 7 9

49 55

64

22 18

7 6 1 1

Coalitiongovernment

David Cameron Conservative Party

Much more favourable

A little morefavourableNo change

A little less favourable

Much less favourable

Opponents care far more Increasing the aid budget is so electorally challenging because opponents are far more likely to shift their favourability due to the policy. For the Conservatives, just 22% of very strong policy supporters view them more favourably, 71% of strong opponents view them less favourably.

6

53

6

52

6

52

2

21

2

21

3

19

50

21

53

23

67

24

33

2

27

2

17

2 7

0

10

0 5

0

Coalition: Veryfavourable to

policy

Coalition: Veryunfavourable

to policy

Cameron: Veryfavourable to

policy

Cameron: Veryunfavourable

to policy

Conservatives:Very

favourable topolicy

Conservatives:Very

unfavourableto policy

Much more favourable

A little more favourable

No change

A little less favourable

Much less favourable

Effect of policy on favourability towards Coalition, Cameron and Conservatives

1 in 3 less likely to give to charity Increasing the aid budget would make 25% less likely to ‘give to an overseas like Oxfam and Save The Children’, including 17% ‘much less likely’. A further 20% of people vote never give to such a charity.

2 3

38

8 17

20

4 9

Much more likely

A little more likely

Neither more nor less likely

A little less likely

Much less likely

Would never donate to an overseas aid charity

Would always donate to an overseas aid charity

Don't know

BACKGROUND This spreadsheet contains survey data collected and analysed by YouGov-Cambridge No information contained within this spreadsheet may be published without the consent of YouGov-Cambridge and the client named on the front cover. Methodology: This survey has been conducted using an online interview administered members of the YouGov Plc GB panel of 185,000+ individuals who have agreed to take part in surveys. An email was sent to panellists selected at random from the base sample according to the sample definition, inviting them to take part in the survey and providing a link to the survey. (The sample definition could be "GB adult population" or a subset such as "GB adult females"). YouGov Plc normally achieves a response rate of between 35% and 50% to surveys however this does vary dependent upon the subject matter, complexity and length of the questionnaire. The responding sample is weighted to the profile of the sample definition to provide a representative reporting sample. The profile is normally derived from census data or, if not available from the census, from industry accepted data. YouGov plc make every effort to provide representative information. All results are based on a sample and are therefore subject to statistical errors normally associated with sample-based information. For further information about the results in this spreadsheet, please contact YouGov-Cambridge (+44)(0)20 7 012 6000 or email joel.rogers@yougov.com quoting the survey details

EDITOR'S NOTES - all press releases should contain the following information

All figures, unless otherwise stated, are from YouGov-Cambridge Total sample size was 2,206 adults. Fieldwork was undertaken between 14th - 15th June 2011. The survey was carried out online. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all GB adults (aged 18+).

NOTE: All press releases or other publications must be checked by YouGov-Cambridge before use. YouGov-Cambridge requires 48 hours to check a press release unless otherwise agreed. Please note, multiple press releases will require longer. - YouGov is registered with the Information Commissioner - YouGov is a member of the British Polling Council

Any percentages calculated on bases fewer than 50 respondents must not be reported as they do not represent a wide enough cross-section of the target population to be considered statistically reliable. These figures will be italicised.