The Political Economy of Undocumented Migration
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The Political Economy of Undocumented Migration
Douglas S. MasseyWoodrow Wilson School
Princeton University
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Rise of Latino Threat NarrativeDistribution of Alarmist Covers by Period
18
37
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1970s 1980s 1990s
Decade
Perc
enta
ge
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1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 20090
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Mentions of Immigration as a Crisis, Flood, or Invasion in Leading U.S. Newspapers
1965 QuotasTake Effect
1980 RefugeeAct Passes IRCA Passes
OperationGatekeeper 1996 Acts USA PATRIOT Act
HR4437
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ApprehensionsAnti-ImmigrantReaction
RestrictiveLegislation
RestrictiveOperations
No. of Border Patrol Agents
Size of BorderPatrol Budget
LinewatchHours
UndocumentedEntries
2
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β SEDemographic Background
Age 0.0113 ** 0.0035Age-squared 0.0000 0.0000Female -0.1818 *** 0.0215White 0.3532 *** 0.0287U.S. Born 0.0139 0.0289Currently married 0.2479 *** 0.0214No. of minors in household 0.0552 *** 0.0094
General Human CapitalEducation 0.0329 *** 0.0037
Specific Human CapitalIncome 0.0021 *** 0.0003Skilled occupationProfessional occupation -0.0422 0.0273Service occupation 0.0269 0.0250Farm occupation 0.0365 0.0676
U.S. RegionWestNortheast -0.2168 *** 0.0323Midwest -0.0218 0.0295South 0.1734 *** 0.0279
Size of CityRuralLarge urban city -0.2395 *** 0.0412Medium urban city -0.1140 *** 0.0309Small urban city -0.0078 0.0240
U.S. Economic ContextExpected earnings -0.0027 *** 0.0004
U.S. Policy ContextMexican Apprehensions 0.1680 *** 0.0315
Total number of observations*p<.10; **p<.05; ***p<.001
51,981
Predicting Conservatism
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β SEDemographic Background
Age 0.0351 ** 0.0138Age-squared -0.0002 * 0.0001Female -0.1113 0.0918White 0.5176 ** 0.1597Currently married 0.2474 ** 0.1094No. of minors in household -0.0150 0.0403
General Human CapitalEducation -0.0793 *** 0.0183
Specific Human CapitalIncome (x1000) -0.0016 0.0013Skilled occupationProfessional occupation -0.1017 0.0885Service occupation 0.0235 0.0852Farm occupation -0.0526 0.3130
U.S. RegionWestNortheast 0.1012 0.1512Midwest 0.1187 0.0982South 0.2608 ** 0.1062
Size of CityRuralLarge urban city -0.3992 ** 0.1667Medium urban city -0.1258 0.0784Small urban city -0.1302 0.1056
U.S. Policy ContextIdentified Self as not conservativeIdentified S+elf as slightly conservative 0.3959 *** 0.1018Identified Self as extremely conservative0.5572 ** 0.1520
Anti-immigrant sentimentSupport fo exclusionist policies index
Total number of observations*p<.10; **p<.05; ***p<.001
5,194
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Support Exclusionist Policy Both: 1996 & 2004
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ApprehensionsAnti-ImmigrantReaction
RestrictiveLegislation
RestrictiveOperations
No. of Border Patrol Agents
Size of BorderPatrol Budget
LinewatchHours
UndocumentedEntries
2
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Cumulative Restrictive Legislation = -9.498 + .406*Percent Conservative R2 = .520Cumulative Restrictive Operations = -5.389 + .221*Percent Conservative R2 = .216
BP Agents = 1.803 + .245*Cum Legislation + 1.449*Cum Operations R2 = .898BP Budget = 0.264 + .006 *Cum Legislation + .275*Cum Operations R2 = .838
Linewatch Hours = -0.654+ .703*BP Agents + 1.957*BP Budget R2 = .990
Apprehensions = 128.650 + 13.964*Linewatch + .852*Undoc Entries R2 = .734Pct Conservative = 14.092 + .0103*Apprehensions + .1.462*Unemp Rate R2 = .648
.834Percent Conservative------------>-Apprehensions <----------- .686
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Yields a Self-Reinforcing Non-Recursive Feedback Loop
Apprehensions Anti-Immigrant Reaction.834
.686
Has Fueled a Massive and Unprecedented Increase In Immigration and Border Enforcement
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1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100
5
10
15
20
25
Intensity of Border EnforcementBorder Patrol Officers Linewatch Hours Border Patrol Budget
Year
Ratio
to F
igur
e in
198
6
IRCA
OperationBlockade
PATRIOTAct
1996 Acts
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1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
Total Deportations from the United States
Year
Num
ber D
epor
ted
Anti-Terrorism and EffectiveDeath Penalty Act of 1996
USA PATRIOT Act
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Average Daily Number of Immigrants in Detention
6259
20,032
31,345
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
1992 2000 2008
Year
Num
ber
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Immigration-Related Legislation in State Legislatures
1404
570
300
13051405
170
8436
206259
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Year
Num
ber
Bills Considered
Bills Enacted
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Anti-Hispanic Hate Crimes Since 9/11
480 475
522
576
595
426
400
450
500
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600
650
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Year
Num
ber
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Consequences of the War: Public Opinion2006 Pew Survey of American Adults
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Immigrants Threaten AmericanValues
Americans Need to Be ProtectedAgainst Foreign Influence
Approve of Minutemen
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1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
-0.0200
0.0000
0.0200
0.0400
0.0600
0.0800
0.1000
0.1200
Probability of Undocumented Migration to United StatesFirst Trip Later Trip
Year
Prob
abili
ty o
f Dep
artu
re
OperationWetback
Bracero Program Cancelled& Numerical Quotas Imposed
IRCA
OperationBlockade
EconomicCrisis in US
PATRIOTAct
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1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010$0.00
$500.00
$1,000.00
$1,500.00
$2,000.00
$2,500.00
$3,000.00
Cost of Border Crossing in 2010 US Dollars
Year
Cost
in U
S Do
llars
1965 Act IRCA
BorderBlockades
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Death rate from suffocation, drowning, heat exhaustion, exposure, and unknown causes along border 1986-98
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Year
Rat
e pe
r 1,0
00 E
ntrie
s
Operation Blockade Launched In El Paso
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1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
Probability of Returning to Mexico within 12 MonthsFirst Trip Later Trip
Year
Prob
abili
ty
Bracero Program EndsWH Quotas Imposed IRCA Passes 1996 Acts
PATRIOT Act
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1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100
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Mexican State of Border CrossingBC Chihuahua Sonora Tamaulipas Other
Year
Perc
enta
ge C
ross
ing
in S
tate
IRCA
Operation Blockade
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1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050
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State of Destination for Undocumented Migrants
Year
Axis
Title
IRCA
California, Texas,or Illinois
Other State
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1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Naturalizations by Mexicans
Year
Num
ber N
atur
alizi
ng
IRCA
IRCA Adjustees Eligibleto Naturalize
1996 Immigration Acts
Sensenbrenner Bill
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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
Current Trends in Mexican Migration
Axis Title
Num
ber o
f Mig
rant
s
Guestworkers
Undocumented
Documented
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Back to the Future: Flows Then and Now
• 1956-1957– 57,000 Documented Migrants per Year– 441,000 Guestworkers per Year– 498,000 Total Legal Entries per Year– Apprehension Rate: 38.4 Migrants per Agent & Falling
• 2008-2009– 177,000 Documented Migrants Per Year– 331,000 Guestworkers per Year– 508,000 Total Legal Entries per Year– Apprehension Rate: 34.5 Migrants per Agent & Falling
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Major Difference Between Then and Now:Resident Undocumented Population
– 1956-1957• Effectively Zero
– 2007-2008• Currently Estimated at 10.8 Million• 60% of all Undocumented Migrants Are Mexican• 55% of All Mexicans Present in US Are Undocumented
– Of 11 Million Undocumented Migrants• 3+ Million Entered as children• 500,000-1 Million Former Temporary Protected Status
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Beating a Dead Horse:America’s Continuing War on Immigrants
Douglas S. MasseyWoodrow Wilson School
Princeton University