The Political Economy of a Green Revolution
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Transcript of The Political Economy of a Green Revolution
The Political Economy of a Green Revolution
Pol376: International Political EconomyApril 2, 2012Michael Lee
Summary Global Warming Possible solutions Friedman and a “Green New Deal” Obstacles to a Green Revolution
Ideational Implementation Political International
A green opportunity?
Negative externalities of dirty energy consumption
What are the negative externalities of filling up a tank of gas?
Global warming Other pollutants Foreign policy Petro-dictatorship Complexity
Hot, Flat and Crowded
Rise of China Green new deal Competitive advantage http://video.nytimes.com/video/2007/04/10/m
agazine/1194817107532/the-power-of-green.html
Energy internet Carbon tax/price floors Regulation/incentives
Other approaches to climate change
Doing nothing Cap and trade Government intervention Geo-engineering
Battle of ideas
Climate science Skeptics
Deniers Cornucopians Lomborg
“Climategate” Hockey stick Environmental tradeoffs
Temperature since 1000 CE, multiple sources
Implementation problems
Variable generation, constant demand Government picking winners Green bubbles
Spain Czech Republic
Ontario wind energy as % of capacity: variable energy generation, regular demand
Does a green public lead to green policies? (WVS)
Early 90s Late 90s Late 00s
France 54.4% 37.6% (no data)
China 82.4% 74.3% 73.7%
USA 63.9% 60.9% 49.8%
Canada 63.7% 58.1% 65.7%
Pricing carbon: a tough sell
USA Cap and trade http://politics.nytimes.com/congress/votes/111/hou
se/1/477 Sectoral/regional costs
Canada Green tax shift (carbon tax) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=os5vXksQwts&
feature=relmfu
If you were building a political coalition of green interests, what would it look like?
Past international efforts
Global collective action problems Montreal protocol (Ozone), 1987 Acid rain treaty (S02, NOx), 1991 http://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/progress/arp03.
html Kyoto protocol (C02), 1997 Copenhagen (C02), 2009
Human C02 emissions since 1850
Why was Kyoto unsuccessful, while previous agreements succeeded?
Country C02/person Status
US 18.9 Signed, did not ratify
Canada 16.9 Ratified, dropped out
Japan 9.8 Failed to meet target
Germany 9.6 Met target
UK 8.9 Exceeded target
France 6 Exceeded target
Are there competitive advantages to going green?
Who has a comparative advantage in solar power?
Annual Average windspeed
Summary
Academic consensus may not translate into public acceptance
Hard to implement Tricky international and domestic
distributional politics