The PhD Program in Climate Dynamics at George Mason University Prospects for an Inter-disciplinary...

The PhD Program in Climate Dynamics

at George MasonUniversity

Prospects for anInter-disciplinary Institute

on Environment and Society

Jim KinterCenter for Ocean-Land-

Atmosphere Studies -and-

George Mason University

PhD Program in Climate Dynamics || Institute of Global Environment and Society May 2013 – Jim Kinter

The dynamics of climate is an interesting scientific problem…

Precipitation patterns

are affected by

Atmospheric circulation(e.g. Hadley and other

meridional cells)

which is in turn influenced by

Sea surfacetemperature

Land surfacestate


What do we mean by “climate”?

• The statistical distribution in space (lat., long., alt.) and time of • atmospheric quantities: temperature, pressure, moisture, etc.• oceanic quantities: temperature, salinity and current• land surface quantities: soil moisture and canopy evapotranspiration• cryosphere quantities such as sea ice cover and land ice volume

• There is no unambiguous definition

• Variability on time-scales of a few days or less: “weather”

• Variability on time-scales of a few weeks or more: “climate”

•BUT … the scientific problem of predicting weather and climate is essentially a single “seamless” problem


Prof. Ed Lorenz Prof. J. Shukla

Two big ideas informing our work:

CHAOS PREDICTABILITY


ChaosSensitive dependence on initial conditionsLorenz showed that small perturbations (“ the flapping of a butterfly’s wings”) can lead to changes in the atmospheric state on all scales and that unpredictable small-scale eddies influence larger scale eddies such that the uncertainty transfers upscale Predictability of weather limited to a few weeks

Climate PredictabilityTime and space averages may be more predictableDynamics of ocean and land surface have longer intrinsic time- scales than atmosphereExternal forcing may also have long time-scales orbital variations ice ages CO2 emissions global warming


Climate Variability

TIME SCALE PHENOMENONDays-weeks Fronts, MCC/MCS,

(extra)tropical cyclonesWeeks-months Blocking, MJO, active/break monsoon

Months-seasons Annual cycle, NAOSeasons-years ENSO, QBOYears-decades PDO, AMO, MOC

Decades and longer Anthropogenic changes, solar cycles, ice ages, continental drift …


Climate Impacts

TIME SCALE PHENOMENONDays-weeks Flash floods, high winds

Weeks-months “Flash” droughts, long-term floodsMonths-seasons Heat waves, cold spells,

seasonal droughtsSeasons-years Long-term droughts, vegetation shiftsYears-decades Mega-droughts

Decades and longer Global warming, sea-level rise, ocean acidification


How do we address such problems? • Hypothesis testing

– Planetary-scale phenomena require planetary-scale experiments … BUT …

– You can’t mess with Mother Nature: experimenting on the only planet we have is bad idea

• Prediction– Using past data to project future conditions

• Both require sophisticated models


Climate Dynamics PhD ProgramAtmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences Department

George Mason Universityhttp://aoes.gmu.edu/academics/graduate/climate


GMU Ph.D. Program in Climate Dynamics

Affiliated with the Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences (AOES)and the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA)

Faculty

• T. DelSole; Ph.D., Harvard Univ.• P. Dirmeyer; Ph.D., Univ. of Maryland• E. Jin; Ph.D., Seoul National Univ.• B. Huang; Ph.D., Univ. of Maryland • V. Krishnamurthy; Ph.D., M.I.T. • J. Lu; Ph.D., Dalhousie Univ.• J. Kinter; Ph.D., Princeton Univ.

B. Klinger; Ph.D., M.I.T./Woods Hole Ocean. Inst.

E. Schneider; Ph.D., Harvard Univ.

P. Schopf; Ph.D., Princeton Univ.

J. Shukla (director); Ph.D., B.H.U.; Sc.D., M.I.T

C. Stan; Ph.D., Colorado State Univ.

D. Straus (chair); Ph.D., Cornell Univ.

PhD Program in Climate Dynamics || Institute of Global Environment and Society May 2013 – Jim Kinter11

2002-2011 GMU Climate Dynamics PhD RecipientsDeepthi Achuthavarier

Role of the Indian and Pacific Oceans in Indian Summer Monsoon Variability

Research ScientistNASA Goddard

Whit Anderson Oceanic Sill - Overflow Systems: Investigation and Simulation with the Poseidon OGCM

Research ScientistNOAA GFDL

Kristi Arsenault (2011)

Impact of Model and Observational Error on Assimilating Snow Cover Fraction Observations


Susan Bates The Role of the Annual Cycle in the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Variability in the Tropical Atlantic Ocean

Research ScientistNCAR

Robert Burgman ENSO Decadal Variability in a Tropically-Forced Hybrid Coupled Model

Assistant ProfessorFlorida International University

Carlos Cruz Global Ocean Circulation Variability Induced by Southern Ocean Winds


Meizhu Fan Low Frequency North Atlantic SST Variability: Weather Noise Forcing and Coupled Response

Research ScientistNOAA NESDIS

Xia Feng New Methods For Estimating Seasonal Potential Climate Predictability

Post-doctoral Research ScientistGeorge Mason University

Laura Feudale Extreme Events in Europe & N. America During 1950-2003: An Observational & Modeling Study

Research ScientistARPA/OSER (Italy)

Youkyoung Jang (2011)

The Atmospheric Influence of Tropical Diabatic Heating Associated with Developing ENSO on Indian Monsoon

Post-doctoral Research ScientistFlorida International University

Liwei Jia (2011) Robust Multi-year Predictability on Continental Scales Post-doctoral Research ScientistCOLA



2002-2011 GMU Climate Dynamics PhD RecipientsDaeho Jin The Impact of ENSO on the Extratropics Post-doctoral Research Scientist

University of Maryland, College Park

Jian Li (2011) SST Diurnal Variability in the CFS and its Influence on Low Frequency Variability

Research ScientistNOAA NESDIS

Julia Manganello The Influence of SST Anomalies on Low-Frequency Variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation

Research ScientistCOLA

Bala Narapusetty Impact Of Tropical Instability Waves In The Eastern Equatorial Pacific

Post-doctoral Research ScientistCOLA

Xiaohua Pan Impact of Mean Climate on ENSO Simulation and Prediction Post-doctoral Research ScientistUniversity of Maryland, Baltimore County

Kathy Pegion Potential Predictability of Tropical Intraseasonal Variability in the NCEP CFS

Post-doctoral Research ScientistCIRES, University of Colorado

Mary Ellen Verona Observational Analysis and Numerical Simulation of 1997-1998 El Niño

deceased

Yuri Vikhliaev Decadal Extra-Tropical Pacific Variability Post-doctoral Research ScientistNASA Goddard

Li Xu (2011) Snow Cover as a Source of Climate Predictability: Mechanisms of Snow-Atmosphere Coupling

Research ScientistCOLA

Tugrul Yilmaz Improving Land Data Assimilation Performance With A Water Budget Constraint

Post-doctoral Research ScientistU.S. Department of Agriculture



• A. Badger (Dirmeyer)• G. Bucher (Boybeyi)• H. Chen (Schneider)• I. Colfescu (Schneider)• X. Feng (Lu)• A. Garuba (Klinger)

• A. Hazra (Klinger)• Y. Jin (Stan)• L. Krishnamurthy

(Krishnamurthy)• E. Lajoie (DelSole)• J. Nattala (Kinter)• E. Palipane (Lu)

• M. Scafonas (Lu)• B. Singh (Krishnamurthy)• A. Srivastava (Shukla/Huang)• E. Stofferahn (Boybeyi)• E. Swenson (Straus)• X. Yan (DelSole)

Bold = 2012/13 graduate

Current Graduate Students (Advisors)



Weather and Climate Pagehttp://aoes.gmu.edu/academics/graduate/climate


Tools for Examining Virginia Weather and Climate


Climate Impacts

TIME SCALE PHENOMENONDays-weeks Flash floods, high winds

Weeks-months “Flash” droughts, long-term floodsMonths-seasons Heat waves, cold spells,

seasonal droughtsSeasons-years Long-term droughts, vegetation shiftsYears-decades Mega-droughts

Decades and longer Global warming, sea-level rise, ocean acidification


Societal Impacts

TIME SCALE PHENOMENONDays-weeks Property and infrastructure damage;

residential displacementWeeks-months Crop loss, soil erosion

Months-seasons Human health effects: allergies, cardio-pulmonary stress, food

shortagesSeasons-years Famine, disease vector propagationYears-decades Societal unrest

(Collapse – Jared Diamond)Decades and longer Coastal city threats, species extinction


Drivers• America’s Climate Choices

• (USGCRP) National Climate Assessment

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change


George Mason University Institute of Global Environmental and Society

Goals• To study and better understand the challenges of global environmental

change, sustainability, and resiliency in the 21st century, including the interactions among physical, biological and social systems.

• To enhance the academic programs of, and facilitate active interaction among, the several outstanding research and education efforts on environment and sustainability at George Mason University.

• To provide an objective assessment of projected environmental changes, especially for the Commonwealth of Virginia, with science-based strategies for adaptation and mitigation policy options.

Inaugural Director: J. Shukla


Mason Climate Centers

• Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies

• Center for Climate Change Communication

• Center for Climate and Society

• Center for Global Ethics

Tom Lovejoy

Jim Kinter

Ed Maibach

AndrewLight

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