The Perfect Storm

GreatRecession

Aging Population

UnpreparedWorkforce

Upskilling of Jobs

12

3

4

1 | The Great Recession

Global economy in throes of worst economic storm in centuryJobs in jeopardySlow, faltering recoveryGovernments in record debt

2 | Aging Population

Declining birth rate since 1967Later marriage & fewer childrenBoomers retiring (1947-65 in 2012)Growing concern: dependency ratioImmigration cannot offset natural decline

% of Canadians Between 15-64

19501955

19601965

19701975

19801985

19901995

20002005

20102012

20152020

20252030

20352040

20452050

205550%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

YEAR

PERC

ENTA

GE

Source: Russell Barnett, Bank of Canada Review, Summer 2007, p.7

Dependency Ratio

Canada NFLD PEI NS NB QC ON MN SK AB BC0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20102036

PERC

ENTA

GE

Rick Miner, PhD, 2012, Jobs of the Future: Options and Opportunities

3 | Upskilling of Jobs

Rick Miner, 2012, Jobs of the Future: Options and Opportunities

• Vast majority of 2031 work force has been born• Immigration – 280,000• Under-represented - poor, aboriginals, women, disabled

The Gallup World Poll was started in 2005, covers virtually every demographic and socioeconomic group in every country in the world, and will go on for 100 years.

Biggest discovery so far:

More than anything else, the whole world wants a good job!

The countries with enough cities that pull together to ensure their citizens have good jobs and their employers have engaged employees will be the winners in The Coming Jobs War.

Agriculture: 90,000 additional workers required by 2013 Construction: 219,000 retiring workers 2012 – 2020 ECO Canada: 100,483 environmental workers in the next 10 years to replace retiring

workers Electricity: 45,000 new skilled workers required by 2016 (almost half of the existing

workforce) Food Processing: 13% (32,500) of workers in this industry will be retiring by 2115. At least

21,500 needed in the period Information & Communications Technology: 106,000 in the next 5 years Mining: About 81,000 needed in the next decade Petroleum: At least 15,000 new workers over the next four years (2012 - 2015) Printing: 41% of the industry’s labour force is nearing, or has passed, the age of early

retirement Supply Chain: 27,000 current vacancies , with an additional need for 60,000employees

annually Tourism: 114,000 unfilled jobs in 2020 and by 2030, 10.7% of labour demand (228,000 jobs)

could go unfilled Trucking: 2012-2017; projected workforce growth will be 199,800

Talent Shortages

TASC - The Alliance for Sector Councils, November 2012

4 | Unprepared Workforce

The Talent Pipeline

Leaking Pipeline

National HS graduation rate 79%

60% of HS grads (47%) register immediately for post-secondary programs

25% of post-secondary students dropout by the end of the first year. A similar percent change programs or majors

(King, 2009, Who Doesn’t Go To Post-Secondary Education?)(Miner, 2010, People Without Jobs, Jobs Without People)(Education Indicators 2011, Statistics Canada & Council of Ministers of Education Canada)

End of Pipeline

100 Grade 9 Students: 29 will graduate on schedule with post-secondary degree, diploma, certificate

14-20% youth unemployment (Statistics Canada)

39% mal-employed or underemployed (Sun Life Financial Canada Poll of 18-24 year olds, November, 2012)

90% of Youth 18-24 feel Excessive Stress. Why? Economic instability and underemployment (Sun Life Financial Canada, Nov 2012)

2012 summer jobs at lowest level since 1977 (C.D. Howe Institute)

“The linear path from school to career, home ownership, and family has disappeared.”Community Foundations of Canada, October 2012

Career Entry Fee

By 2031 approximately 77% of the workforce will require a post-secondary education or training

Jobs of the Future: Options and Opportunities, Rick Miner, PhD, March 2012)

Career Entry Fee

“Over the past third of a century all net job growth has been generated by positions requiring some

post-secondary education.”Pathways to Prosperity, 2011, Harvard Graduate School of Education

By 2031 approximately 77% of the workforce will require a post-secondary education or training

Jobs of the Future: Options and Opportunities, Rick Miner, PhD, March 2012)

Generation Nixed

Young & Jobless – Neil Sandell

Generation with no Future

CBC Documentary

CBC TELEVISION’S DOC ZONEThursday, Jan 31st at 9:00 PM

“The problem of youth unemployment has been getting worse for several years. But there are at last some reasons for hope. Governments are trying to address the

mismatch between education and the labour market. Companies are beginning to take more responsibility for investing in the young. And technology is helping democratise education and training. The world has a real chance of introducing an education-and-

training revolution worthy of the scale of the problem.”

Generation Jobless

• 28% of workers are fully engaged

• About the same number are actively disengaged

• The rest are cruising on automatic pilot

Clifton, The Coming Jobs War

Employee Engagement

Economic Consequences

• Productivity $ 1.3 Trillion• Health $122 Billion• Education $100 Billion• Social Services $190 Billion• Policing & Prisons $ 51 Billion• Govt Revenues $585 Billion

Human Consequences

• Individuals• Families• Communities• Provinces• Canada

Transforming Education

Wake Forest

Harvard-led Pathways Movement

• Educators and employers must collaborate to provide work-based and project-based learning opportunities for secondary and post-secondary students.

• Career guidance must be enhanced so students choose

pathways based on their unique interests, talents, and aspirations, and on contemporary workforce needs.

• All learning pathways to career roles in demand in the workforce deserve equal priority and respect.

• The contributions of educators, parents, employers, and community agencies are all vital and must be harmonized.

Consensus Reached

The Perfect Storm makes a harmonized,

whole-community commitment to

career and workforce development an

economic imperative.

Whole Community

Athletes and Teachers

• Potential future sports stars, and teachers, are discovered young and nurtured

• Most others must find their way through the educational maze then discover if any employers want them

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The ccEngage Solution

Whole Community Approach

Community Organizations

Students

Employers

Parents

Educators/Trainers

Administrators