The People of Perth – Past, Present and Future · Geography Social And how these combine. ......

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The People of Perth The People of Perth ––Past, Present and FuturePast, Present and Future

John HenstridgeData Analysis Australia

UDIA Pemberton 2003

UDIA Pemberton September 2003 UDIA Pemberton September 2003 -- Page 2www.www. daadaa.com.au.com.au

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© Data Analysis Australia

OverviewOverview

�The Past�Population growth

�Population Structure

�The Present�Future

�How we forecast

�What do we forecast


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A Statisticians A Statisticians ViewView

�The numbers and their meaning�Look behind sources like the Census

�Three dimensions�Demographic

�Geography

�Social

�And how these combine


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Why Bother with Why Bother with Demographics?Demographics?

�Directly impacts urban development


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Trends in people, housesTrends in people, houses

�Both increasing

�Rates critical to urban development

�Detail even more important

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001

Year

Per

sons

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

Hou

seho

lds


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Health NeedsHealth Needs

�Heavily weighed to the elderly

�Young adults have a minor peak�Accidents

�Where do you place services�And people move to services

Accident and Emergency

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90 and over

Age

Rate per 1000

Females

Males


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JusticeJustice

�Youth orientation

�Urban environment affects crime

Imprisonment

0 4 8 12 16

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60 and over

Age

Rate per 1000

Females

Males


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The Past The Past

�Population since 1829�Perth now 75% of state population

Population

0

500

1000

1500

200018

30

1840

1850

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Year

1000

's

Rest of State

Perth


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Perth as part of Perth as part of Western AustraliaWestern Australia

�Now 75% of population

�Australians prefer the coast�Are we a maritime nation?


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19421942


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Measuring Measuring GrowthGrowth

�Census every fives years�1981, 1986, 1991, 1996,

2001, …

�Australian Census one of the best in the world�Now readily available


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19811981

�Perth reaches size of Adelaide


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19861986

�America’s Cup


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19911991


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19961996


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20012001

�Latest Census


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Ages 1961Ages 1961

�Shaped by the war�And the depression

�Baby boom dominates�32.5% aged less than 15

�>20% at school

Age Profile 1961

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85 +

Age

Proportion of Population

Australia

WA


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Ages 1981Ages 1981

�High growth has made WA young�Mineral boom

�Influx from the East

�Time of major development

Age Profile 1981

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85 +

Age

Proportion of Population

Australia

WA


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Ages 2001Ages 2001

�Western Australia almost matches all Australia

Age profile 2001

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85 +

Age

Proportion of population

AustraliaWAPerth


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The PresentThe Present

�The past leaves an imprint on the present�Who we are

�Where we live

�Same as but different from the rest of Australia


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Age 0Age 0 --44

Proportion of 0-4 year olds2001 CDs

0.1 to < 5%5 to < 10%

10 to < 15%15 to < 20%20 to 50%


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Age 5Age 5 --1414


0.1 to < 5%5 to < 10%

10 to < 15%15 to < 20%20 to 100%


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Age 15Age 15 --2424


0.1 to < 5%5 to < 10%

10 to < 15%15 to < 20%20 to 100


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Age 25Age 25 --3939


0.1 to < 5%5 to < 10%

10 to < 15%15 to < 20%20 to 100%


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Age 60 +Age 60 +

Proportion of 60 year olds and over2001 CDs

0.1 to < 5%5 to < 10%

10 to < 15%15 to < 20%20 to 100%


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Household Household sizesize

Average Persons Per Household2001 CDs

0.6 to < 22 to < 33 to < 44 to < 55 or more


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The FutureThe Future

�Forecasting is always difficult

�Especially when applied to the future


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Forecasting Forecasting PopulationPopulation

�Simple demographics�People get older

�Some die

�More are born

�Some move away

�Some move in

�Measure using statistics

�Combine using mathematics


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What a Model What a Model Looks LikeLooks Like�Consider five year

age groups�And five year time

periods�E.g. from 1996 to 2001

�Match Census years


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Let most Let most people agepeople age�Move to the next age

group�The one exact thing

�Some do not make it�Age specific mortality

�Well measured

�Very predictable


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Add in birthsAdd in births

�People produce babies�Age specific birth rates

�Linked to adult females

�Well measured�Births registered

�Reasonably predictable


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Subtract emigrationSubtract emigrationAdd immigrationAdd immigration�Both also depend on

age�Intrastate

�Interstate

�Overseas

�Poorly measured�Only from Census

�Poorly predicted�Linked to economy


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Put it togetherPut it together

�Complex when combined�Still need to think of

gender

�Most demographers think males irrelevant

�Do for each area�Australia

�State

�Local area


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What drives it?What drives it?

�Births greatly outnumber deaths�25,000 births, 10,000 deaths

�Will do so for next 20 years

�Due to young profile

�Then�Births will be static, deaths increase

�Migration from other states�Young people – aged 20-35

�Looking for jobs

�Depends strongly upon economy

�Keeps age profile young

�Few leaving


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Birth rate Birth rate decliningdeclining

�Women having fewer children�Declined to 1.7 per woman

�Not enough to sustain population

�Women having children at a greater age�Greater time between generations

�Slows rate of change


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Fertility TrendsFertility Trends

�Boom and bust�Economic factors

�Downward trend

�Below replacement

Fertility

0

1

2

3

4

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020Year


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Migration Changing Migration Changing and Decliningand Declining�Australia less attractive to older

sources�Fewer immigrants from Europe

�WA less attractive to rest of Australia�Resource industries less labour intensive

�Globalisation reduces Perth operations to branch offices


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Implications for Implications for PopulationPopulation

�Population growth declining�Current growth half due to aging

�This will disappear in 30 years

�Growth fed by migration


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20112011


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20212021


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People are not People are not everythingeverything�Social structures also

changing�Gender equality

�Employment patterns

�Education


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Household SizeHousehold Size

�Heading down�Continuing trend since 1960

Average Household Size

0

1

2

3

4

1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Change in definition in 1985


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Household Household StructureStructure�Increase in small

households�Large households

static

�Dramatic change for only 10 years

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

1 2 3 4 5 6+

Household Size

1991

1996

2001


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Economic Economic ChangesChanges�In 1981 Gary Becker predicted

that economic changes would affect family structures�Families partly based upon economic “marriage

of convenience”

�Economic benefit of being in a family less now

�We see it happening�If you outsource cooking (restaurants, take-

away) and cleaning who needs a traditional wife?


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How long will it How long will it take?take?

�Next 25 years will see population bulge reach limit

�Flat profile�Low growth will follow

�New definition of elderly in community

Age profile 2001

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85 +

Age

Proportion of population

AustraliaWAPerth


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Implications for Implications for DevelopmentsDevelopments

�Household size is declining�Effect is part demographic, part social

�Demographic part can be predicted

�Social part means that family is together for a shorter period

�Demand for some housing will suddenlydry up�Sufficient stock of four bedroom, two bathroom

houses in suburbs

�Demand will switch to different styles


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SummarySummary

�Must understand the future population�Forecasts are not certain

�What might happen is as important for planning as what will happen

�The past has 80% of the answer�The future will reflect the past and present

�The tools lie in statistics and demography

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Thank youThank you

The People of Perth – Past, Present and Future · Geography Social And how these combine. ......

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