THE PATH TO EFFICIENT TRADE PROMOTIONS - Nielsen...THE PATH TO EFFICIENT TRADE PROMOTIONS C 2015 T...

1THE PATH TO EFFICIENT TRADE PROMOTIONS Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company

T H E PAT H TO E F F I C I E N T T R A D E P R O M OT I O N SFEBRUARY 2015

2 THE PATH TO EFFICIENT TRADE PROMOTIONS

THE PATH TO EFFICIENT TRADE PROMOTIONS Much like the media realm, the consumer product landscape is

becoming increasingly fragmented. Competition is rising, new channels

are developing and choice is rampant. The combination of these and

many other factors has retailers and manufacturers shuffling myriad

promotion options to best publicize their products and boost sales.

The results, however, are largely ineffective and often lead to losses

rather than gains. To make matters worse, few folks have realized that it

takes more than offering additional deep discount programs to increase

promotion efficiency.

From a business perspective, it’s critical that companies—manufacturers

and retailers—get in front of this plight facing America’s consumer

product goods (CPG) industry. That’s because they’re collectively

spending millions of dollars to promote products and getting little—or

negative—in return.

Is this a crisis for U.S. retail? The answer likely depends on your

definition of the word “crisis.” While the word is often used to describe

disasters like famine or disease, it’s possible that manufacturers and

retailers alike would describe their inability to at least break even on

their massive trade expenditures as something of a crisis—especially

since many seem ill-equipped to correct the problem.

THE BIG PICTURE First, let’s talk about the big picture. Manufacturers and retailers across

America spend inordinate amounts of money on trade promotions—the

marketing activities that these two partners use to entice customers to

buy their products. Price discounts are a common promotion tactic, but

other efforts include feature and display, demonstrations, value-added

bonus programs and no-obligation gifts.


ASSESSING TRADE PROMOTION PERFORMANCE

Over the past 10 years, companies around the globe have doubled the

amount of money they spend on their trade promotions. Today, they

spend about $1 trillion annually, and they show no sign of pulling back,

doing all they can to stay competitive in today’s challenging economy.

While trade promotions can increase product visibility and brand

awareness, they can also grow product categories, differentiate a

product to take market share from a competitor and enlarge a specific

product’s segment penetration. So what are the effects of these efforts?

Today, more than one-fifth of the consumer products in the U.S. are sold

under one type of promotion or another.

Now for the bad news. More than two-thirds of the trade promotions

that happen each year in the U.S. don’t break even. And what’s even

more telling is that eliminating 22% of trade promotions would actually

help companies increase sales revenue. Overall, a minority of the

promotions taking place today actually make money.

67%22%33% ELIMINATING

DON’T BREAK EVEN

OF PROMOTIONS WOULD INCREASE SALES REVENUEMAKE MONEY

Source: Nielsen Trade Promotion Landscape Analysis Database 2014 Q3


It’s true. America is pretty bad when it comes to trade promotions—or

at least in terms of getting a positive return on that investment. And

what’s more, the problem is getting worse. That’s because in many

cases, companies are simply trying to regain their footing by increasing

the frequency of their promotions, cutting prices lower or offering

deep discounts more frequently. Unfortunately, these tactics, without

clear insight into what will and won’t work, are going to create a bigger

problem than exists right now.

While the aggregate picture is very telling, a comparison with ad

spending sheds a different light on the overall subject of trade

promotions. When it comes to spending, CPG companies spend more

than twice on trade promotion than they do on advertising. In terms of

actual expenditures, brands and companies typically spend about 19%

of their revenue on trade promotions, compared with about 7.5% on

advertising.

The interesting thing about this scenario—especially given the lackluster

efficiency rate among trade promotions—is that it’s rare to find studies

analyzing the return on trade spending. Comparatively, however,

advertising effectiveness is a constant focal point for marketers and

agencies around the globe.

Perhaps this suggests that the industry perceives advertising as being

easier to evaluate than trade promotions.

PROMOTION INEFFICIENCY IS GETTING WORSE

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

$0.60

$0.65

$0.70

$0.75

2012

1Q

2012

2Q

2012

3Q

2012

4Q

2013

1Q

2013

2Q

2013

3Q

2013

4Q

2014

1Q

2014

2Q

2014

3Q

% OF WEEKS ON PROMOTIONTRADE EFFICIENCY

TRAD

E EF

FIC

IEN

CY

% OF W

EEKS ON

PROM

OTIO

N


IDENTIFYING WHAT’S CAUSING THE INEFFICIENCIES In looking at the significantly subpar performance of trade promotions

across the U.S., it’s no wonder that only one in four Nielsen clients says

they’re happy with their promotional program outcomes. So why is that?

Based on learnings from our work with numerous CPG manufacturers,

Nielsen has identified four fundamental issues that are hindering trade

efficiency.

MEASUREMENT CHALLENGESMeasurement is no easy feat, and grappling with understanding the

effectiveness of trade promotions is something that plagues many

across the CPG landscape. While manufacturers know what they spend,

determining what they make on that spend is less clear-cut. For starters,

the data they receive about what consumers buy comes from multiple

sources. While manufacturers have access to retail sales data, they must

cope with a different set of product identifiers from each retail data

source, as well as differences in the unit of measure (such as case vs.

consumer unit).

Compound this problem with aligning the dates of the promotion

between the manufacturer and the retailers across the tens of thousands

of promotions a big CPG company runs each year, and you get some

sense of the scale of the challenge. Further, manufacturers have to

separate out sales that would have occurred anyway, if the product had

not been promoted, from the incremental sales driven by the promotion,

as well as adjusting for other drivers (including the weather).

STRATEGIC PLANNING VS. TACTICAL REALITYIt’s not just about data and metrics. It’s also about the difference

between a CPG company’s plan and what happens on the ground. Most

CPG companies strategically plan for price and promotion once or twice

a year. Many use sophisticated predictive analytic tools to figure out how

alternative promotional programs would do in the market and decide on

the “best” course of action.


Then, they relay these decisions as guidelines out to the account

teams, who work directly with the retailers. At that point, a thousand

negotiations begin—at which point the link between the view at the

strategic level and the key account level has already been broken. As the

year progresses, the sum of the thousand negotiations is likely to be very

different from the strategic plan sent down from headquarters at the

beginning of the year.

Manufacturers need to integrate strategic planning tools at headquarters

with tactical negotiation processes at the key account level—so that each

retailer negotiation can be optimized while also remaining aligned with

the overarching intent of the strategic plan.

PROMOTIONAL PLAN MANAGEMENT AND EXECUTIONGiven the large number of promotional programs that manufacturers

execute across categories, retailers and geographies, it’s critical that

they use a consistent approach in order to ensure that the right products

are at the store at the right time—even if a retailer changes its mind at

the last minute and chooses to change the time, scope and support of

a promotion. Nielsen research has found that more than half of out-of-

stocks are caused by poor price and promotion management.

In short, promotional optimization and management tools have to link

reliably into the supply chain and financial management systems of the

manufacturer.

MANAGEMENT PROCESSMuch like anything, optimizing and managing promotional activity

relies on a dedicated, consistent process. CPG manufacturers will not be

effective or efficient in their trade promotions if they use them in an ad

hoc fashion or have a small group of analysts operate them in a silo.

Truth be told, companies need powerful, integrated software applications

that enable a wide range of managers to optimize and execute

promotional activities on an end-to-end basis so that a consistent

process is used pervasively throughout the organization, for all

categories, retailers and geographies.


A DEEPER DIVE INTO THE PROBLEM Knowing that the rubber meets the road when consumers start buying

and that trade promotion efficiency is lackluster, Nielsen recently

conducted a widespread analysis of the retail landscape to better

understand the aggregate situation.

At the onset, the benchmark analysis* covered 340 categories, 15

departments, 1 million UPCs, 125 million event weeks and $1.6 trillion

in retail sales. We then narrowed the analysis to eliminate some of the

extreme skews. Specifically, we wanted to focus on the businesses that

were promoting regularly and exclude promotional activity that was

minimal and infrequent. The analysis also excluded activities around

tobacco, alcohol, and a few kitchen staples: eggs, milk and bread.

The final analysis, which aimed to identify what drives performance,

ultimately zeroed in on 92 million event weeks over nearly three years

and totaling $213 billion in sales across 75 retail banners. To hone in

on performance, the analysis identified the weeks where prices were

lower than the everyday cost for an item and then isolated the expected

volume from the actual volume sold during that period.

We also used assumptions about the cost to execute and margins for

manufacturers and retailers.

211 13 811k 92MM 213BCATEGORIES DEPARTMENTS UPCs EVENT WEEKS US RETAIL SALES


CATEGORY EFFICIENCY RATES AND AREAS OF OPPORTUNITYWhile there are clear departments that would benefit from increased

promotion efficiency more than others, the entire store is ripe with

opportunity. That’s because the top effectiveness rate across the entire

store is only 50%. So even manufacturers and retailers that have

managed to crack part of the trade promotion code by excelling to some

degree can improve their efforts and boost efficiency rates.

TRADE PROMOTION EFFECTIVENESS RANGES FROM 25%-50% ACROSS DEPARTMENTS

% OF WEEKS WHERE PROMOTIONS DON’T BREAK EVEN

EFFICIENCY OPPORTUNITIES EXIST THROUGHOUT THE STORE

Read as: 74% of the promotion weeks for the produce category don’t break even.

Source: Nielsen Trade Promotion Landscape Analysis 2014 Q3

DAIRYMEAT62%

DELI

PRODUCE

72%

74%

BEAUTY CARE

HEALTH PET CARE BAKERY

GROCERY

PER

SON

AL

HO

USE

HO

LD C

AR

E

GEN

ERA

L M

ERC

HA

ND

ISE

FRO

ZEN

FO

OD

S

59% 66% 73%

73%50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

75%


The interesting thing about trade promotion efficiency is that

effectiveness can vary significantly within a single department. For

example, 73% of the promotion weeks in the grocery department don’t

break even, yet promotions for coffee are among the strongest in the

store. In fact, for every dollar spent on promoting coffee, retailers will

get more than a dollar back in return 70% of the time.

And some categories that are begging for proper trade promotions

aren’t delivering. Take the seasonal area, for example, which exists

solely to feature items that will be promoted, is falling short, delivering

positive returns only 24% of the time.

UNDERSTANDING WHERE YOUR EFFICIENCIES ARE IS VALUABLE CONTEXT

PROMOTION EFFICIENCY VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY WITHIN CATEGORIES

Read as: For every $1 spent on promotions for frozen toaster pastries, the promotions deliver more than $1 in returns 32% of the time.


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TRADE EFFICIENCY < 0

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

TRADE EFFICIENCY >= 100

0 < TRADE EFFICIENCY < 100


PROMOTION EFFICIENCY CAN BE ACHIEVED THROUGHOUT THE STORE

CATEGORY SIZE DOES NOT DICTATE PERFORMANCE

In addition to finding notable variances in efficiency across products,

Nielsen’s benchmark study found that there is no relationship between

category size and promotion effectiveness. In short, category size does

not dictate performance.

For example, when we look across the store, it doesn’t get much

bigger than salty snacks—a $10.5 billion category. Despite consumers’

immense love for their chips and pretzels, promotions in the category

didn’t break even more than 75% of the time during the study period.

On the flipside, the dips for salty snacks category is much smaller ($331

million), yet promotions for them broke even more than 70% of the

time.

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Read as: Soft drinks represent a $9.8 billion category, yet promotions in this space don’t break even 76% of the time.



AVERAGE CATEGORY TRADE EFFICIENCY

% OF TOTAL EVENTS PROMOTING DEEPER THAN 25% DEPTH OF DISCOUNT

SELECTIVELY USE DEEP DISCOUNTS TO MAXIMIZE PROMOTION EFFICIENCY

Read as: When 0-5% of promotions involve deep discounts, the average trade efficiency rate is 74.3%.

Source: Nielsen Trade Promotion Benchmark Database 2014 Q3

EVENT FREQUENCY, DISCOUNTING AND EFFICIENCYThe other important thing for companies to understand when they plan

their trade promotions: more events do not equate to more returns. In

fact, the two are negatively correlated. According to Nielsen’s research,

over-promoting actually dilutes efficiency.

Over-using deep discounts is another way to kill promotion efficiency.

According to Nielsen data, using deep discounts—those where the price

is 25% lower than normal—the effectiveness at driving sales significantly

degrades for 50% or more of the total promotional activity.

69.0%

0% 0-5% 0-5% 25-50% 50-100% 100%

74.3%

60.6% 53.2%

40.8% 37.0%


In addition to knowing how much to promote, it pays to know when to

promote. For example, there’s an overabundance of promotional activity

between Thanksgiving and Black Friday, but knowing how effective they

are can help retailers understand if they’re just spinning their wheels as

the holidays approach. Despite the findings about the diluting nature

of deep discounts, a Nielsen study at the end of 2014 found that price

cuts of 30%-60% work better for U.S. retailers around Thanksgiving and

Black Friday than at other times of the year.

In looking at the trends over the past two years, retailers have boosted

their deep discount promotions by 3% around Thanksgiving, and the

majority don’t fall victim to common promotional pitfalls. In fact,

consumers have been so receptive to deep discounts around this time

of year that trade promotions can drive as much as a 22% higher-

than-normal return, as has been the case in the general merchandise

category, which includes small appliances, photo supplies, and

telephones and accessories.


THANKSGIVING VS. YEAR-ROUND AVERAGE

DEEP-DISCOUNT PROMOTION INCREASES AND CHANGES IN PROMOTION EFFICIENCY

-0.8%

-0.4%

-3.7%

-2.6%

-1.8%

-1.1%

0.9%

1.8%

2.1%

3.9%

4.2%

4.4%

7.2%

10.4%

21.9%

-1.2%

6.4%

0.4%

0.0%

4.4%

8.4%

1.6%

1.1%

2.3%

1.7%

12.6%

DEEP DISCOUNT VOLUME CHANGE

DEEP DISCOUNT TRADE EFFICIENCY CHANGE

HOUSEHOLD CARE

FROZEN FOODS

HEALTH CARE

DELI

GROCERY

PET CARE

BAKERY

DAIRY

PRODUCE

PERSONAL CARE

MEAT

BEAUTY CARE

GENERAL MERCHANDISE

Read as: Deep discounts for the general merchandise category have been nearly 22% more efficient during the holiday season over the last two years than during the rest of the year.



STRATEGIES TO AVOID AND STRATEGIES TO EMBRACEWhen we look at the overall picture, it’s clear that the majority of the

retail market needs to improve the efficiency of its promotions. There

are, however, a handful of success stories—those that illustrate an

effective balance of promotion type, frequency and category to drive

effective performance.

As we’ve detailed, some departments do better than others, and

we’ve seen notable variations even within a category. Contrary to what

might be viewed as beneficial from a strategy perspective, Nielsen has

identified several common misconceptions when it comes to program

efficiency:

CATEGORY SIZE DOES NOT DICTATE PERFORMANCEOpportunities exist across the store in all categories. A range of

categories—ranging from $100 million to $10 billion in size—fall in the

65%-75% inefficiency range, so size is a relative non-issue.

CATEGORY HEALTH IS NOT DISCRIMINATINGInefficiency can plague both rising and falling stars. Nielsen research

has found high degrees of performance variation among categories with

increasing and decreasing sales. Trade efficiencies among categories

with declining sales of more than 5% ranges from -$0.41 to $1.76, and

effectiveness among categories growing by more than 5% ranges from

-$0.12 to $1.50.

OVER-PROMOTING ERODES EFFICIENCYAcross categories, every 5% in additional time on promotion is

associated with nearly 10% in decreased trade efficiency. Although it’s

not a causal relationship, there’s little question that there is too much of

a good thing when it comes to promotions.

On the flipside, of the strategies that have proven to be ineffective,

three tactics have demonstrated the ability to drive positive results—

regardless of category. The winners who have employed these tactics

have improved their trade efficiency by 3.6% and seen sales climb

almost 3%.


MODERATION IS KEYThe selective use of deep discounts, along with shallow discounted

events, can be very effective. Specifically, less-frequent deep discounts

have proven to be the most profitable. Nielsen has identified 13

categories where this strategy has helped bring improvement where

inefficiency has been the norm. Among these categories, 73% of events

don’t break even, but a reduced use of deep discounts has proven

to improve efficiency by 3.6% over the past year. In aggregate, deep

discount frequency was reduced by 39%. For example, deep discounts

in the ice cream category were cut by 48% since last year, which boosted

efficiency by 2%.

CHANNEL-TO-PRODUCT MIX IS A CRITICAL CONSIDERATIONMatching promotional channels to promotional product mix has led to

greater returns. In the hair-color category, for example, the opportunity

lies in re-distributing the amount of promotion volume taking place

across other channels. The ratio of inefficient-events-to-share-of-events

in the drug category is 1.35x, meaning that the share of bad events

is disproportionally high compared with the total number of events.

As a channel, the drug category is over-indexing in terms of its bad

events, which suggests that cutting back on promotions would boost

trade efficiency. To turn things around, retailers should transfer their

investment in the under-performing drug channel to a channel with

better returns.

PROMOTE WHERE PERFORMANCE IS HIGHManufacturers and retailers would be well served to promote more in

the segments that are strong performers. Segment performance is not

static. It varies over time. So with that in mind, it’s critical to stay on

top of fluctuations in order to adjust investments and maintain positive

results.

In one category in the grocery channel, manufacturers spend the most

money promoting a specific segment that has the lowest promotion

efficiency. This is most likely because the category is the most frequently

promoted nationally. When we looked deeper into this segment, we

found that 1% of the promotions are still considered best-in-class with

high efficiency. This presents an opportunity for manufacturers and

category advisors to examine the planning and execution of these 1%

events in order to identify ways to improve the rest of their promotions.


NEXT STEPSIn taking a step back from the granular details, we can re-focus on the

larger issue: the frequency of products being promoted in the U.S. is

increasing while the effectiveness of those promotions—which is already

low—is declining. The takeaway for the market? This is simply not

sustainable for the packaged goods industry. It’s not sustainable for the

retailers or the brands that operate in this space. No one is immune to

this.

All is not lost, however. The first step in turning efficiency trends

around is recognizing that a majority of the promotional efforts taking

place don’t break even. And what’s more, 22% of promotions could be

eliminated and actually improve sales results.

The next step is knowing where to start, which means understanding

where your current efforts are netting out. If you don’t know where you

are right now, there’s no way to create an effective strategy to move

forward.

For example, if you know your events are delivering less than $1 in return

for every $1 you spend, predictive analytics can help differentiate how

to best promote by category, channel, event type and account. If you’re

in the middle of the road—meaning you’ve experienced some success

but could gain additional efficiencies—identifying gaps where your

efforts are missing will help drive additional success. For example, the

illustration here shows how three manufacturers agree on the right times

to promote a specific category, as illustrated by the three solid lines. The

dotted line, however, highlights how sales also peak in late winter and

early spring—times when consumers are buying but promotions are at

bay.


If your promotional activities fall into the elite category where every

$1 dollar spent is delivering more than $1 in return, there’s still

room to improve. That’s because even the beauty and personal care

departments—the two most efficient areas of the store—are only turning

in trade efficiency rates of 50%. The key to better trade efforts lies in

learning which consumer segments are driving differential performance.

With that knowledge, you’ll be in a much stronger position to shift your

strategy in a complementary way.

ALIGN YOUR PROMOTION PLAN WHEN SALES PEAK TO MAXIMIZE EFFECTIVENESS

SEIZING OPPORTUNITIES

CATEGORY TRADE EFFCIENCY

MFR A % ON PROMOTION

MFR B % ON PROMOTION

MFR C % ON PROMOTION

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

CAT

EGO

RY TR

ADE

EFFI

CIE

NC

Y TIME O

N PRO

MO

TION

Month

2012 02 Feb

2012 03 Mar

2012 04 Apr

2012 05 May

2012 06 Jun

2012 07 Jul

2012 08 Aug

2012 09 Sep

2012 10 O

ct

2012 11 Nov

2012 12 Dec

2013 01 Jan

2013 02 Feb

2013 03 Mar

2013 04 Apr

2013 05 May

2013 06 Jun

2013 07 Jul

2013 08 Aug

2013 09 Sep

2013 10 O

ct

2013 11 Nov

2013 12 Dec

2014 01 Jan

2014 02 Feb

2014 03 Mar

2014 04 Apr

2014 05 May

2014 06 Jun

2014 07 Jul

2014 08 Aug

2014 09 Sep


*ABOUT THE NIELSEN TRADE PROMOTION LANDSCAPE ANALYSIS

The findings from this report were derived from 2012 through third-

quarter 2014 data from Nielsen’s Trade Promotion Landscape Analysis.

This analysis examined trade promotion events where prices were

discounted at least 10% across 75 banners from food, drug and mass

merchandise retail. The analysis included categories with sales of more

than $100 million and promotion frequency of at least 5%. The analysis

excluded tobacco, alcohol, eggs, milk and bread. The analysis also

excludes Walmart.

ABOUT NIELSEN Nielsen N.V. (NYSE: NLSN) is a global performance management

company that provides a comprehensive understanding of what

consumers Watch and Buy. Nielsen’s Watch segment provides media and

advertising clients with Total Audience measurement services across all

devices where content — video, audio and text — is consumed. The Buy

segment offers consumer packaged goods manufacturers and retailers

the industry’s only global view of retail performance measurement. By

integrating information from its Watch and Buy segments and other data

sources, Nielsen provides its clients with both world-class measurement

as well as analytics that help improve performance. Nielsen, an S&P 500

company, has operations in over 100 countries that cover more than 90

percent of the world’s population.

For more information, visit www.nielsen.com.

Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company. All rights reserved. Nielsen and

the Nielsen logo are trademarks or registered trademarks of CZT/ACN

Trademarks, L.L.C. Other product and service names are trademarks or

registered trademarks of their respective companies.15/8455

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