The Past, Present, and Future of Nuclear

PowerA Regulator’s Perspective

Chairman Gregory B. JaczkoU.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission

May 18, 2010

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What is the Nuclear Regulatory Commission?

5 Commissioners 4000 Staff – and we are

hiring Created in 1954 as the

Atomic Energy Commission Regulation and promotional

pieces split into the Department of Energy and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission

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What do we do?

The NRC’s mission is to regulate civilian uses of nuclear material Protect public health and safety Promote common defense and

security Protect the environment

Major activities Licensing Oversight Research Rulemaking Incident Response

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Where do we fit in the federal government?

The NRC mostly reports to the Congress

The President appoints Commissioners who are confirmed by the Senate

The President designates one of the Commissioners as Chairman – That’s me

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Nuclear Power – The Past, Present and Future?

“Our children will enjoy in their homes electrical energy too cheap to meter....”

Lewis Strauss, Chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission, 1954

“Once claimed to be too cheap to meter, nuclear power is now too expensive to matter.”

The Economist Magazine, 2001

2010 and beyond?

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THE PAST(putting more scientific rigor to

regulation)

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Historical Approach to Licensing and Oversight

Deterministic

Single failure criteria

Redundancy

Diversity

Defense-in-depth

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Operational Experience

Prior to 1975, fire treated as a industrial hazard

Browns Ferry Fire March 22, 1975 fire in cable

spreading room and reactor building

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Fire Damage 117 Conduits 26 Cable Trays 1611cables 628 safety related 114 common to both Units

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Response to Fire

Backfit requirements on plants Many exemptions requiring compensatory measures Directed toward assuring plant shutdown and core

cooling Very prescriptive

Defines defense in depth for fires Prevent fires Detect, control and extinguish fires Protect equipment for plant shutdown and cooling

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More Operational Experience

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What happened to all the plant applications

More than 200 license applications for plants 104 operating today

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Construction Permits Issued

Operating Licenses Issued

Operating Units

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Beginnings of Risk-Informed Regulation Recognition of challenges to

reactor safety from accidents outside the design basis

WASH-1400, “Reactor Safety Study – An Assessment of Accident Risks in U.S. Commercial Nuclear Power Plants,” 1975 Early attempt to measure

plant risk Results showed low risk, but

the study was controversial at the time

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Beginnings of Risk-Informed Regulation Policy Statement, “Safety Goals for the Operations of Nuclear

Power Plants,” 1986 How safe is safe enough? Qualitative Health Objectives

Individual members of the public should be provided a level of protection from the consequences of nuclear power plant operation such that individuals bear no significant additional risk to life and health

Societal risks to life and health from nuclear power plant operation should be comparable to or less than the risk of generating electricity by viable competing technologies and should not be a significant addition to other societal risks

Quantitative Health Objectives The risk to an average individual in the vicinity of a nuclear power plant of prompt

fatalities that might result from reactor accidents should not exceed one-tenth of one percent (0.1%) of the sum of prompt fatality risks resulting from other accident to which members of the U.S. population are generally exposed

The risk to the population in the area of nuclear power plant of cancer fatalities that might result from nuclear power plant operation should not exceed one-tenth of one percent (0.1%) of the sum of cancer fatality risks resulting from all other causes

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Beginnings of Risk-Informed Regulation

NUREG-1150, “Severe Accident Risks: An Assessment for Five U.S. Nuclear Power Plants,” 1990

Systematic study of internal and external events for Surry, Peach Bottom, Sequoyah, Grand Gulf, and Zion

Indicated that the current generation of nuclear power plants exceeds NRC safety goals Average probability of an individual early fatality per reactor per year

NRC Safety Goal: 5 x 10-7 Typical PWR: 2 x 10-8 Typical BWR: 5 x 10-11

Average probability of an individual latent cancer death per reactor per year: NRC Safety Goal: 2 x 10-6 Typical PWR: 2 x 10-9 Typical BWR: 4 x 10-10

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Beginnings of Risk-Informed Regulation Policy Statement, “Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Methods in Nuclear Regulatory Activities,” 1995 Encouraged the use of PRA in all regulatory matters

“the use of PRA technology should be increased to the extent supported by the state-of-the-art in PRA methods and data and in a manner that complements the NRC’s deterministic approach”

Potential applications of PRA should be implemented in a consistent and predictable manner that promotes regulatory stability and efficiency

A probabilistic approach to regulation enhances and extends the traditional deterministic approach Allows consideration of a broader set of potential challenges to safety Provides a logical means to prioritize challenges based on risk significance Allows consideration of a broader set of resources to defend against the

challenges

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THE PRESENT(better regulatory science)

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Potential Mixed Generations of Reactors

104 operating nuclear power plants 22 new plant applications 4 design certifications issued (ABWR, System 80+,

AP600, AP1000) 3 design certifications applications under review 2 design certification amendments under review Proposed design reviews for small modular reactors DOE federal loan guarantees to support the construction

of $18 billion worth of nuclear plants Cost for a single nuclear power plant $6-$10 billion

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Safety of the Operating Reactors

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6 “New” Plants in last 15 Years Increase in safety and operational performance 5700 MWe from power uprates

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Cumulative

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Potential New Reactors

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THE FUTURE?(politics)

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The Politics

The Congress is considering greater restrictions on emissions of green house gases

The House has passed legislation The Senate has not considered legislation Nuclear could benefit from putting a price

on carbon emissions

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The Deal for Climate Legislation

The easiest way to get things done in Washington is to have Democrats and Republicans agree

Energy issues are regional Could enough coal state Democrats support a

price on carbon if there is support for new nuclear power?

Could enough pro-nuclear Republicans agree to setting a price for carbon?

Stay tuned…

US NRC – Places to Work First out of 250 other Federal Agencies Among our “Best in Class” ratings, the NRC was: #1 Large Agency Rankings #1 Strategic Management #1 Effective Leadership #1 Work / Life Balance #1 Among African Americans #1 Among Hispanics #1 Among Women #1 Among Employees Under 40 #1 Pay and Benefits

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