Dipartimento Energia

THE PARADOX OF THE WORLD ENERGY

QUESTION A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL AND SYSTEMIC THINKING ABOUT THE GLOBAL

ENERGY CHALLENGE

PIERLUIGI LEONE

HTTPS://WWW.POK.POLIMI.IT/

B.E.S.T Spring Course 2016 Stairway TO Energy – Torino, May 2nd 2016

Dipartimento Energia

Objective

Understanding complexity of the energy

challenge and its multi-dimensional nature

Understanding the framework for technical

studies

Contextualize your knowledge in a wider

framework

Reflect upon the role of engineers in future

society

The lecture in 3 slides…

Current global exergy usage ~ 15 TW (0.5 ZJ per year)

W.Hermann, Stanford University, Global Carbon and Energy Project

The lecture in 3 slides…

NASA/NOAA 1972 and 2012

The lecture in 3 slides…

Vision

Energy: a paradoxical question

Civilization crisis - the human root of the energy question

The energy transition as a pillar of the sustainability quest

Humankind at the center of the next energy transition

Summary

Part I - Energy as a multi-dimensional issue

Part II – Understanding the energy transition – the role of technology

Energy units and scales

Units Activity

PART I. ENERGY AS A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL

ISSUE

B.E.S.T Spring Course 2016 Stairway TO Energy – Torino, May 2nd 2016

The Earth and its inhabitants

Hadean Eon

Turbulent childhood of the Earth-Moon system, Le Scienze, 30 Luglio 2014

Paleoclimate evolution

Snowball Earth – Second big extinction around

650 millions ago

Geologic Time Spiral

U.S. Geological Survey

The Big Five

L..Alvarez, W..Alvarez, F. Asaro, H.V. Michel, Extraterrestrial cause for the cretaceous-tertiary extinction, Science, 1980

PART I. ENERGY AS A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL

ISSUE – PLANETARY ENERGETICS

B.E.S.T Spring Course 2016 Stairway TO Energy – Torino, May 2nd 2016

Milky Way Galaxy

SUN

Solar radiation spectrum

Sun-Earth interaction

Sun-Earth interaction

Earth energy budget

Atmospheric Science Data Center of NASA

Greenhouse effect

Svante August Arrhenius,

1859-1927

Global energy balance

Water cycle

45000 TW

85 W/m2

Air kinetic

3500 TW

7 W/m2

Waves

1000 TW

3 W/m2

Photosynthesis

63 TW

0.5 W/m2

Endogeneous flux

42 TW

0.08 W/m2

Water and air

heating

87000 TW

171 W/m2

Reflected

52000 TW

102 W/m2

Tides

3 TW

0.008 W/m2

PART I. ENERGY AS A MULTI-DIMENTIONAL

ISSUE – LIVING ORGANISMS

B.E.S.T Spring Course 2016 Stairway TO Energy – Torino, May 2nd 2016

Living organisms

“All complex life on this planet, all its incredible diversity, all our hopes and

worries, are but transmutations of the Sun’s light, and photosynthesis is the

agent of this miracle.

Absorption of sunlight and the subsequent sequence of photochemical and

thermochemical reactions in the chloroplasts of photosynthesizing bacteria

and green plants are the most important energy conversions on the Earth.

Plants provide all our food (directly or after being eaten from animals) ;

their immediate harvest (as wood or crop residues) or the extraction of their

fossilized remains (as coal or hydrocarbons) supply all our fuels.

All the richness of the etherotrophic life and all the intricacies of human

civilizations are thus energized by photosynthesis.”

V.Smil, Energy in Nature and Society: General Energetics of Complex Systems

The MIT press 2007.

Trophic chain

•Photosynthesis efficiency:1-5%

•Biomass-to-biomass conversion

efficiency in animals: ~4%

•Rarely, trophic chains have more

than 5 links

Vegatables

Calvin-Benson cycle – the role of ATP

Animals

Glucose

Pyruvate

Animals’ metabolism – the role of ATP

Basic metabolic rate

Physical activity level

Eadweard Muybridge, 1830 – 1904

Elaboration from V.Smil, Energy in Nature and Society: General Energetics of Complex Systems The MIT press 2007.

PART I. ENERGY AS A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL

ISSUE – HUMAN SOCIETIES

B.E.S.T Spring Course 2016 Stairway TO Energy – Torino, May 2nd 2016

Watersheds in energy use

Time

Agriculture

Around 10 thousands years ago Population: 10 milioni

Industrialization

1750 d.C. Population: 800 millions

Today Population: 7 billions

What transition?

Watershed in energy use

Hunters and gatheres Farmers

Farmers Worker

VIII a.C.

XVIII

The original footprint

Cueva de las Manos , Santa Cruz, Argentina, 9.300 -13.000 years ago

Innovation in agricalture

Animali

Weigth (kg) Towing

capacity

(kg)

Nomical

velocity

(m/s)

Power

(W) Medium Big

Horses 350-700 800-100 50-80 0,9-0,11 500-850

Mule 350-500 500-600 50-60 0,9-0,10 500-600

Oxen 350-700 800-950 40-70 0,6-0,8 250-550

Cow 200-400 500-600 20-40 0,6-0,7 100-300

Buffalo 300-600 600-700 30-60 0,8-0,9 250-550

Donkey 200-300 300-350 15-30 0,6-0,7 100-200

Elaboration from V.Smil, Energy in Nature and Society: General Energetics of Complex Systems The MIT press 2007.

Horses

Horses

Donkey

Bison

Innovation in agricalture

Product tH20/tprod

Wheat 1500

Rice 900

Corn 600

Elaboration from V.Smil, Energy in Nature and Society: General Energetics of Complex Systems The MIT press 2007.

First engines: human power

Improvements in efficiency to use musclar and animal force:

•wheels

• levers

• gear

•pulley

V.Smil, Energy in Nature and Society: General Energetics of Complex Systems The MIT press 2007.

Energy output in agriculture

Population Products Work input (hours) Energy return

Southeast Asia Tuber 2 000-2 500 15-20

Southeast Asia Rice 2 800-3 200 15-20

Western Africa Millet 8 000-1 200 10-20

Central america Corn 6 000-1 000 24-50

North america Corn 600-800 25-30

Elaboration from V.Smil, Energy in Nature and Society: General Energetics of Complex Systems The MIT press 2007.

Age of synergy

V.Smil, Creating the Twentieth Century Technical Innovations of 1867-1914 and Their Lasting Impact, Oxford University press 2005.

Cross section of Edison’s New York station

(thermal capacity, 93 MW)

completed in 1902.

Cover of the first catalog published

by Benz & Cie. in 1888

Bessemer converter in operation at

John Brown & Co. Foundry

1-MW-capacity Parsons’s

steam turbine designed in

1899.

Human revolution

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

-50000 -8000 1 1200 1650 1750 1850 1900 1950 1995 2011

Pop

ula

tion

(b

illi

on

s)

Livestock and

agriculture in the

Middle East and

Plows, water

wheels, Roman

aqueducts

(300 a.C - 1 d.C)

Introduction of

windmills;

Cathedrals (Europe)

Steam engine

Coal mining

(England)

Hydraulic and

steam turbine

(Francis-Parson);

Lighting;

Internal

combustion engine

Oil drilling (1877, Texas);

coal and oil introduction;

assembly line (1913,

Ford)

Gas turbine and

nuclear energy

GHGs at 400

ppm

Hunters and

gatheres

Primary energy use from

industrial revolution

Global Energy assessment, IIASA, 2012

Human history in numbers…

96,1%

3,8% 0,1%

12%

68%

20% Paleolithic

Neolitich

Modern

Duration Total humans lived (total – 82 billion)

Energy uses

0.22 toe/capita – ~6,000,000 population –Paleolithic → 0,05 EJ

0.45 toe/capita – ~50,000,000 population - Neolithic → 1 EJ

20-fold increase in world energy consumption

0.45 toe/capita – ~50,000,000 population – Neolithic → 1 EJ

1.8 toe/capita – ~7,300,000,000 population – Neolithic → 550

EJ

500-fold increase in world energy consumption

PART I. ENERGY AS A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL

ISSUE – THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

B.E.S.T Spring Course 2016 Stairway TO Energy – Torino, May 2nd 2016

A multi-dimensional issue

Resources

Land

En

vir

on

men

t

Water Pollution

Air Pollution

Planetary

cycle

Bio

div

ers

ity

Progress

Growth

Eco

no

my

Development

Global

Gender

Just

ice

Material issues

Imm

ate

rial

issu

es

Environment

Boat cemetery, Muynak – Aral sea, Uzbekistan, 2013

Photocredits, Pierluigi Leone

Environment

II Law of thermodynamics

Major planetary cycles: water

Sourced from USGS

Major planetary cycles: water

Water- Ramses Morales Izquierdo

Major planetary cycles: water

Sourced from USGS

Major planetary cycles: carbon

= 15 billion tons go out

Ocean Land Biosphere

Fossil Fuel

Burning & Industrial

Processes

30+

3000 billion tons CO2 15+ billion

tons go in billion tons added

every year

~7 + ~8 Revised version of the original cartoon in the lecture notes by Prof. Robert Socolow

within the course “Living in a Greenhouse: Technology and Policy”. (Princeton

University, Fall 2010)

Major planetary cycles: carbon

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007

Major planetary cycles: nitrogen

Nicolas Gruber & James N. Galloway, An Earth-system perspective of the global nitrogen cycle, NATURE, 2008.

Climate change

Harold Clayton Urey

(1893-1981). A

pioneering work on

isotopes earned him the

Nobel Prize in Chemistry

William Frank Libby (1908-

1980). Nobel prize in

chemistry in 1960 for

radiocarbon dating

Willi Dansgaard (1922-2011).

Danich paleoclimatologist

Archives of the Earth

Gabrielle Walker, Frozen time, Nature, 2004.

Archives of the Earth

Measure of climate change

Carbon dioxide and other compounds, methane (CH4), nitrogen oxide

N2O and CFCs

Gas Concentration GWP (100

years)

Residence time

in atmosphere

(years)

Radiative

forcing (W/m2)

CO2 383 ppm 1 Variable (5-200) 1.66

CH4 ≈1800 ppb 21 12 0.5

N2O ≈319 ppb 310 114 0.16

CFC ≈1 ppb 140-10000 5-250 0.34

Global warming potential - GWP-

Radiative forcing –RF –

Some recent figures about climate change Pre-industrial: 280 ± 10 ppm

Actual: ≈ 400.21 ppm (Feb 15th 2015, Mauna Loa)

Radiative forcing

IPCC - Climate Change 2007, Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis

Radiative forcing

Source: IPCC – TAR, WG1, Ch. 2

The “hockey stick”

Michel Mann, Raymond Bradley, Malcom Hughes.

GHGs emissions

Hansen, A slippery slope: how much global warming constitutes dangerous anthropogenic

interference? An editorial essay, Climate Change, 2005.

GHGs emissions

Global fossil fuel and cement emissions: 9.7 ± 0.5 GtC in 2012, 58% over 1990

Projection for 2013 : 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC, 61% over 1990

Uncertainty is ±5% for

one standard deviation

(IPCC “likely” range)

Source: Le Quéré et al 2013; CDIAC Data; Global Carbon Project 2013

Climate change

IPCC - Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) - 2014

Climate change

Resources

Uomini, tecniche, economie (1962) Di Carlo M. Cipolla, Elaborazione da H.Thirring, Energy for man (1958)

Life-time of fossil and nuclear

resources

IEA., World Energy Outlook 2014

Energy and economy

Energy and economy

Energy and economy

0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

1883 1888 1893 1898 1903 1908 1913 1918 1923 1928 1933 1938 1943 1948 1953 1958

TW

h

Electricity production in Italy 1883-1960

WWI

Railway electrification

WWII

Economic boom

M. Magnone, Energia, Progresso e sostenibilità, A.A 2014-2015

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

TW

h

Electricity production in Italy 1960-2013

Energy and economy

Economic boom

Oil crisis

Chernobil disaster

Gulf war

Economic crisis

F. Veglio, Energia, Progresso e sostenibilità, A.A 2014-2015

Energy and economy

Pic nic area in a highway in the Netherlands after the oil shock in 1973 and establishment of car-free sundays

Energy and quality of life

Energy and quality of life

Energy and quality of life

Energy and quality of life

Lanten Village, Luang

Namtha, Western-North

Laos

Deforestation for food

production and fuel for cooking

Photocredits, Pierluigi Leone

Energy and war

It is fundamental to operate arms and arms industry

It is one of the main causes of wars

During peace period, it is necessary to use big amounts of energy to remediate war’s damages

Energy and war

Arms Bullet Kinetic energy, J

Bow and arrow Arrow 20

Heavy crossbow Arrow 100

Muzzle-loading musket Metallic bullet 1˙000

M16 gun Metallic bullet 2˙000

Medieval cannon Stone bullet 50˙000

XVIII century cannon Iron bullet 300˙000

WWI cannon Proiettile esplosivo 1˙000˙000

Hand granade Explosive projectile 2˙000˙000

Anti-aircraft gun, WWI explosive projectile 6˙000˙000

M1A1 Abram tank cannon explosive projectile with

depleted uranium 6˙000˙000

V2 rocket, WWII Missile 10˙000˙000

Truck packed with explosives Chippings 2˙000˙000˙000

Boeing 767 for il World Trade Center attack,

11/9/2011 Aircraft 4˙000˙000˙000

Bibliography

1. Vaclav Smil, Energy in Nature and Society - General Energetics

of Complex Systems, The MIT press, 2007.

2. Michele Calì, Guida all'energia nella natura e nelle civiltà

umane, Editrice Esculapio, Bologna 2014.

3. MOOC – The strange paradox of the world energy question -

Michele Calì, Pierluigi Leone, Emanuela Colombo, Andrea Lanzini

https://www.pok.polimi.it/