The Palestinian Challenge
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Transcript of The Palestinian Challenge
The Palestinian Challenge
Between War and Negotiations
Militarized PL State
Foreign forces using PL
Terrorism and Rocket fire
PL State: Security Threat
Military Logic: Control Territory
Israel’s Security Dilemmas
What is the main threat?
Worsening Demographic Balance
Erosion of 2SS
Logic of Implosion
W/o PL State: Demographic Threat
Political Logic: Withdrawal
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War in Gaza, Negotiations on WB
Negotiations
With Fatah
War
Against Hamas
Military Logic: Control Territory Political Logic: Withdraw
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Is there a Palestinian Partner?
Negotiations
With Fatah
War
Against Hamas
Fatah Internally Weak
PA’s inability to fight terror
Hamas controls Gaza & PLC
Legitimacy of PLO?
Abbas and Fayyad may not deliver
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Shelf Agreement
Abbas and Fayyad may not deliver
The Goal: Shelf Agreement
Easier to Achieve
Guarantee 2SS
Ensures Security Interests
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Easier to Achieve
Guarantee 2SS
Ensures Security InterestsGaps too wide over Core Issues
Palestinian Inversion towards PL State
Hamas control in Gaza
Ethos of Struggle can foil
“Problematic” Ratification Process
Mindset Diverging Reality
2SS Being pushed to Moment of Truth when there is no ‘ripeness’
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2SS Being pushed to Moment of Truth when there is no ‘ripeness’
An Attempt to Anchor the 2SS may Bury it
Calls for PA Dissolution End of Abu Mazen’s Political Career
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Policy OptionsCreating a Safety Net
Calls for PA Dissolution End of Abu Mazen’s Political Career
Change the Agenda of Negotiations
Break all or nothing dynamic
Upgrading the PA
The “Fayyad-Blair” Axis
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The War Against Hamas in Gaza
Leading the PNM;Destruction of Israel
Mission
Islamic State in Mandatory Palestine
Vision
No Clear Plan of Operation
Implosion Strategy
Strategy
War of Attrition
Military Asymmetry: Advantage
It’s all aboutSurvival
Death toll:Indication for Victory
Society’s Absorption Ability : Strategic Depth
Hamas
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The War Against Hamas in Gaza
Its Simplicity Creates the Difficulty
Relevant when Israel Outside Gaza or Inside it
when Gaza is Independent or Occupied
Hamas Manages to Rule and to Fight
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Implosion Strategy
Strategy
Difficult to create organizing logic against Hamas
Policy Options vis-à-vis Hamas
The Next Step?
Tahdiya – calm
Abbas’ position?
Only Temporary Solution: Hamas armament
Re-open Gaza’s crossings
Prisoners Swap?
Unity Government?
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Difficult to create organizing logic against Hamas
Policy Options vis-à-vis Hamas
The Pessimists The Optimists
Military operation in Gaza is inevitable
Topple Hamas?
What about the day after?
Hamas could be partner for PSPB
PL. reunification first
Fatah rejects
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