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Transcript of The Oxford Guide to Financial Modeling by Ho & Lee Chapter 2. Equity Market: Capital Asset Pricing...
The Oxford Guide to Financial Modeling by Ho & Lee
Chapter 2. Equity Market:Capital Asset Pricing Model
Copyright © 2004 by Thomas Ho and Sang Bin Lee. All rights reserved.
The Oxford Guide to
Financial Modeling
Thomas S. Y. Ho and Sang Bin Lee
Chapter 2. Equity Market: The Capital Asset Pricing Model 2
The Oxford Guide to Financial Modeling by Ho & Lee
2.1 Real and Financial Sectors
• Tangible assets, commodities– metals, buildings, factories, inventories,
• Intangible assets– patents, branding
• Financial securities– Stocks, bonds, options, mortgages
• Role of a corporation– Economic units– Organization of a corporation
Chapter 2. Equity Market: The Capital Asset Pricing Model 3
The Oxford Guide to Financial Modeling by Ho & Lee
2.2 Stocks and Stock Market
• Dividends, capital gains
– Announcement date, ex-dividends
• Types of orders
– Market orders: immediate execution at the market price
– Limit orders: wait for the execution at the stated price
• Factors affecting the bid ask spreads
– Market makers, competition, trading volume
Chapter 2. Equity Market: The Capital Asset Pricing Model 4
The Oxford Guide to Financial Modeling by Ho & Lee
Spot Market
• Primary market– new issuance– Investment banking
• Secondary market: – Exchanges: central location, specialists– Over-the-counter
• Open limit order book• Market makers
• Electronic Communication Network (ECN)
Chapter 2. Equity Market: The Capital Asset Pricing Model 5
The Oxford Guide to Financial Modeling by Ho & Lee
Future and Forward Markets
• Forward contracts
• Futures contracts
• Counter-parties
• Open interests
• Marking to market
• Indices: S&P 500, Nikkei 225
Chapter 2. Equity Market: The Capital Asset Pricing Model 6
The Oxford Guide to Financial Modeling by Ho & Lee
2.3 Perfect Capital Market
• All financial claims are perfectly divisible
• No transaction costs
• No taxes
• Competitive markets
• No limit in short selling
• Information symmetry
• Increasing utility of wealth and risk aversion
Chapter 2. Equity Market: The Capital Asset Pricing Model 7
The Oxford Guide to Financial Modeling by Ho & Lee
2.4 Efficient Capital Market Hypothesis
• Weak form efficiency
• Semi-strong form efficiency
• Strong form efficiency
Chapter 2. Equity Market: The Capital Asset Pricing Model 8
The Oxford Guide to Financial Modeling by Ho & Lee
2.4 Efficient Capital Market Hypothesis
Chapter 2. Equity Market: The Capital Asset Pricing Model 9
The Oxford Guide to Financial Modeling by Ho & Lee
2.5 Diversification
• A portfolio in general reduces the risk of an individual stock
• Contribution of risk from each stock
• A measure of risk: standard deviation
• The example of 2 coins shows that the standard deviation is lowered in betting on 2 coins than putting all the bet on one coin
Chapter 2. Equity Market: The Capital Asset Pricing Model 10
The Oxford Guide to Financial Modeling by Ho & Lee
Diversification (an Example)
Head/Head Head/Tail Tail/Tail
Probability 0.25 0.5 0.25
Outcomes $200 $100 0
Chapter 2. Equity Market: The Capital Asset Pricing Model 11
The Oxford Guide to Financial Modeling by Ho & Lee
Lognormal and normal distributions with a
mean and a standard deviation
-1.96 0 1.96
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Normal Density
0.23 11.7
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Lognormal Density
Chapter 2. Equity Market: The Capital Asset Pricing Model 12
The Oxford Guide to Financial Modeling by Ho & Lee
Diversification Effect
Systematic
Total
10 20 30 40
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
10 20 30 40The number of stocks
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
Ris
k %
Systematic Risk
Total Risk
Chapter 2. Equity Market: The Capital Asset Pricing Model 13
The Oxford Guide to Financial Modeling by Ho & Lee
2 2 2 22
4ABC BCD CDA DAB
k
2 2 2 2
2 2 2 2
2 2 2 2
2 2 2 2
1 1 1 2( )
9 9 9 9
1 1 1 2( )
9 9 9 9
1 1 1 2( )
9 9 9 9
1 1 1 2( )
9 9 9 9
ABC A B C AB BC CA
BCD B C D BC CD DA
CDA C D A CD DA AC
DAB D A B DA AB BD
Diversification Effect
the average risk of portfolios :
2 2 2 2
2
2
2( )1 2
3 4 3 12
1 2
3 3
A B C D AB AC AD BC BD CDk
i ij
Chapter 2. Equity Market: The Capital Asset Pricing Model 14
The Oxford Guide to Financial Modeling by Ho & Lee
Diversification Effect
2 2 2 2 2,
2 2 2 2, ,
2 2, ,
, ,
2
( ) ( )
P A A A B A B B B
A A A B A B A B A B B B
A A A B A B B A A B B B
A A P B B P
,
2,
( , ) ( , ) ( , ) ( , )
( , ) ( , )
A P A P A A A B B A A A A B B
A A A B A B A A B A B
Cov R R Cov R R R Cov R R Cov R R
Cov R R Cov R R
Chapter 2. Equity Market: The Capital Asset Pricing Model 15
The Oxford Guide to Financial Modeling by Ho & Lee
Capital Asset Pricing Model
[ ] [ ]i f i M fE R r E R r
Chapter 2. Equity Market: The Capital Asset Pricing Model 16
The Oxford Guide to Financial Modeling by Ho & Lee
Capital Market Line
CML
A B C
M
0
E
D
Chapter 2. Equity Market: The Capital Asset Pricing Model 17
The Oxford Guide to Financial Modeling by Ho & Lee
21 1 2 2cov( , ) cov( , ) .... cov( , )M M M N N MR R R R R R
1 21 22 2 2
1 1 2 2
cov( , )cov( , ) cov( , )1 ...
= ...
N MM MN
M M M
N N
R RR R R R
2
cov( , ), 1, ,i M
iM
R Ri N
the variance of the market portfolio
Chapter 2. Equity Market: The Capital Asset Pricing Model 18
The Oxford Guide to Financial Modeling by Ho & Lee
ˆˆi i i M iR R e
ˆˆi i MR
ˆˆ i i i MR R
ˆi MR
ˆi
ˆi
ie
iR
MR
MR
O
2.7 Beta – the Systematic Risk
Chapter 2. Equity Market: The Capital Asset Pricing Model 19
The Oxford Guide to Financial Modeling by Ho & Lee
100
(100) Beta(5) 5
Expected Return (%)
0 10(10)
0
50
(50)
Riskless Asset
Short Stock
Buying Stock
Buying Stock at a margin
Security Market Line: relationship between expected return and beta
Chapter 2. Equity Market: The Capital Asset Pricing Model 20
The Oxford Guide to Financial Modeling by Ho & Lee
The Constant Growth Stock Model
• S the stock price
• D the dividends
• The required return of the stock
• The constant growth rate
Chapter 2. Equity Market: The Capital Asset Pricing Model 21
The Oxford Guide to Financial Modeling by Ho & Lee
2.8 The Dividend Discount Model
(1)
( )req
divS
R g
( 1) ( )(1 )div n div n g
2
2 3
(1) (1)(1 ) (1)(1 )
(1 ) (1 ) (1 )req req req
div div g div gS
R R R
( 1)(forecasted dividends over T periods)
( )(1 )Treq req
div TS PV
R g R
Chapter 2. Equity Market: The Capital Asset Pricing Model 22
The Oxford Guide to Financial Modeling by Ho & Lee
2.10 Empirical Tests of the Capital Asset Pricing Model
• Black, Jensen, Scholes (1972)• Fama and Macbeth (1974)
– Relate the stock betas with the long term stock returns
• Roll (1977)– Is CAPM testable?
• Stambaugh(1982)– What is the market portfolio?