The Outlook for Energy - Homepage - CMU...May 03, 2013 · The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040...

The Outlook for Energy:A View to 2040

Dr. David KhemakhemCarnegie Mellon Electricity Industry CenterScott Energy Innovation InstitutePittsburgh, May 3, 2013

This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.

100 countries

15 demandsectors

20 fueltypes

Energy Outlook Model

technology & policy

ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

2030

~ 60 $/ton

CO2 “Proxy” Cost

CO2 Policies


2040

~ 20 $/ton

~ 15 $/ton

~ 80 $/ton

< 10 $/ton

CO2 “Proxy” Cost

CO2 Policies


Global fundamentals

PopulationBillion

Population Trends Impacts Energy UseFertility Rate*Children per Woman

Global Demographics*Billion

* Source: World Bank & United Nations

0

3

6

9

2010 2020 2030 20400

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

OECDAfricaChinaIndiaSoutheast AsiaLatin America

0

3

6

9

2010 2020 2030 2040

OECD

Other Non OECD

China

India

Africa

Age 0-14

Age 65+

Age 15-64


Energy Demand

Economic Growth Drives Energy Demand

0

25

50

75

100

125

2000 2020 2040

GDPTrillion 2005$

China

United States

2010-2040 AAGR %

5.6%

2.3%

1.8%Other OECD

Other Non

OECD

3.9%World2.8%

Quadrillion BTUs

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

2000 2020 2040

2010-2040 AAGR %World1.0%

Energy DemandQuadrillion BTUs

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

2000 2020 2040

Energy Saved ~500


Tale of Two WorldsNon OECD

0

100

200

300

400

500

2000 2020 2040

Quadrillion BTUs

Biomass

Other Renewables

Oil

Nuclear

Quadrillion BTUs

OECD

Coal

Gas

0

100

200

300

400

500

2000 2020 2040


Energy Mix Continues to EvolveQuadrillion BTUs

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass Solar / Wind /Biofuels

Hydro / Geo

Average Growth / Yr. 2010 - 2040

1.0%

2040

2010

0.8%

1.7%

-0.1%

2.4% 0.4%

5.8% 1.8%


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

ElectricityGeneration

Industrial Transportation Res/Comm

Energy Demand by SectorQuadrillion BTUs

Electricity Demand

Energy Demand by Sector

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

ElectricityGeneration

Industrial Transportation Res/Comm

Quadrillion BTUs

2010

2025

2040

Electricity Generation Leads Growth


Residential/commercial

Million Households

Household Growth Drives Residential Demand

0

150

300

450

600

750

EuropeOECD

N. America OtherOECD

China Africa India LatinAmerica

Russia/Caspian

MiddleEast

Other NonOECD

2010

2040

2040

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

2000 2020 2040

Fuel DemandQuadrillion BTUs

Electricity

Coal

Oil

Gas

Biomass

Other

Residential/Commercial OutlookResidential Energy Intensity

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2020 2040

Million BTUs per Person

Japan

North America

Europe OECD

China

India

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

2000 2020 2040

By SectorQuadrillion BTUs

Commercial

Residential


Industrial

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 2015 2040

Industry Energy Demand Increases

Chemicals

Manufacturing & Industry

Energy Industry

Other

PlasticsPlasticsFertilizerFertilizer

PaintPaint

SteelSteel

AutomobilesAutomobiles TextilesTextiles

Liquid FuelsLiquid Fuels

CoalCoalNatural GasNatural Gas

AgricultureAgriculture

LubricantsLubricants AsphaltAsphalt

Quadrillion BTUs


Industrial Energy Demand

0

50

100

150

200

250

2000 2020 2040

By FuelQuadrillion BTUs

Electricity

Oil

Gas

Renewables

Coal

By RegionQuadrillion BTUs

0

50

100

150

200

250

2000 2020 2040

OECD

China

India

Rest of Non

OECD

Market Heat


Electricity generation

Electricity Demand by RegionNon OECD

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2020 2040

Thousand TWh

Middle East

Southeast AsiaRussia/Caspian

Other Non OECD

China

Africa

India

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2020 2040

Thousand TWh

North America

Europe OECD

Other OECD

OECD


Electricity GenerationQuadrillion BTUs

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000 2020 2040

Oil

Nuclear

Gas

Renewables

Coal

Electricity GenerationQuadrillion BTUs

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000 2020 2040

OECD

Non OECD

Fueling Electricity Generation Varies by Region


-30

0

30

60

90

120

Non OECD OECD

Growth in Fuels from 2010 to 2040Quadrillion BTUs

Oil

Nuclear

Gas

Renewables

Coal

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Nuclear Wind Solar

GW

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Nuclear Wind Solar

Global Capacity UtilizedGWGlobal Capacity

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2020 2040

Global Electricity Generation Mix Evolves

k TWhBy Generation

Wind & Solar

Oil

Coal

Nuclear

Other Renewables

Gas


Transportation

Demand by RegionMBDOE

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

AP NA Europe LA ME ROW

‘40

‘25

‘10

0

15

30

45

60

75

2000 2020 2040

Sector DemandMBDOE

Light Duty

Marine

Rail

Heavy Duty

Aviation

Transportation Demand


0

100

200

300

400

500

NorthAmerica

EuropeOECD

OtherOECD

China India Middle East LatinAmerica

Other NonOECD

Advanced*

CNG

LPG

Conv. Diesel

Conv. Gasoline

2010

Millions of VehiclesPowertrain Technology

Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes

*Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric VehiclesExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

0

100

200

300

400

500

NorthAmerica

EuropeOECD

OtherOECD


Other NonOECD

Advanced*

CNG

LPG

Conv. Diesel

Conv. Gasoline

2025




0

100

200

300

400

500

NorthAmerica

EuropeOECD

OtherOECD


Other NonOECD

PHV/EVFull HybridCNGLPGDiesel ConvMogas Conv

2040




Light Duty Vehicle Sales & Efficiency

0

5

10

15

20

2010 2020 2030 2040

Incremental Vehicle Efficiency GainsMiles per Gallon

Powertrain

Body & Accessories

Downsizing

Hybrid

Average27 MPG

47 MPG

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040

Elec/PHV

Full Hybrid

Natural Gas

Conv. Diesel

Conv. Gasoline

Annual New Car Sales by TypeMillion Cars


0

15

30

45

60

75

'10-'25 '25-'40 Other

Heavy Duty Transportation EfficiencyNew Truck Efficiency% Improvement, 2010-2040

Technology

Powertrain

Body

Powertrain

Body

Hybrid

Efficiency ImpactMBDOE

0

15

30

45

2010 2025 2040

Demand w/o Efficiency Demand

Regional Impact

Logistics & Congestion

Truck Size


Growth in Demand from 2010 to 2040MBDOE

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

Gasoline Diesel Jet Fuel Fuel Oil NaturalGas

Other

Non OECDOECD

Transportation Fuel Mix

0

15

30

45

60

75

2000 2020 2040

Fuel DemandMBDOE

Diesel

Gasoline

Ethanol

Biodiesel

Jet FuelFuel Oil

OtherNatural Gas


Gas Into Transportation

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

By SectorBCFD

Light Duty

Marine

Rail

Heavy Duty

2040 by RegionBCFD

0

2

4

6

8

10

AP NA LA ME EU RC AF


Supply

Remaining Oil ResourceCrude and Condensate (BBO)

North AmericaEurope

~100

Asia Pacific

~150

Latin America Africa

Russia/Caspian

~1,000

Middle East

~650

~200

~1,100

~1,100

Global

~4,300

Source: IEA


Liquids Supply

MBDOE

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Supply by Type

Other LiquidsBiofuels

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2040

Resource*TBO

Conventional Crude & Condensate

Tight OilOil Sands

NGLs

DeepwaterRemaining Resource

Cumulative Production

* S

ourc

e: IE

AW

orld

Ene

rgy

Out

look

201

1


Global Gas Resource

Over 200 years coverage at current demand0

5

10

15

20

25

30

World

1000 TCF

Conventional

Unconventional

4.3

North America

2.5

Latin America

1.6

Europe OECD

2.6

Africa

4.9

Middle East

6.2

Russia/ Caspian*

4.5

Asia Pacific

Source: IEA; *Includes Europe Non OECD


Natural Gas Supply and Demand Shifts

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2010 AP ME LA AFR ROW 2040

Global Gas DemandBCFD

China

IndiaOther

AP

MELA

Afr.ROW

BCFD

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2010 2025 2040

North America Conventional

North America Unconventional

Global Gas Supply

Rest of World Conventional

Rest of World Unconventional


0

50

100

150

200

2000 2020 2040

Growth in Unconventional Production

Production by RegionBCFD

Production by TypeBCFD

Tight

Coal Bed Methane

Shale

0

50

100

150

200

2000 2020 2040

Rest of World

Asia Pacific

Americas


North America Energy Balance

0

10

20

30

40

50

2010 2025 2040

Oil

Regional Supply

0

10

20

30

40

50

2010 2025 2040

Gas

Quadrillion BTUs

Net ImportsNet Imports

Net Exports

0

25

50

75

100

125

2010 2025 2040

Regional Supply

Total Energy BalanceNet Exports


Regional Supply

Net Exports


Asia Pacific Energy Balance

0

30

60

90

2010 2025 2040

Oil

Domestic Supply

0

30

60

90

2010 2025 2040

Gas

Quadrillion BTUs


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2010 2025 2040

Domestic Supply

Total Energy Balance



Conclusions


Bio for David Khemakhem (k’mak’m) David Khemakhem is an Energy and Technology Advisor at ExxonMobil.

He is a member of the Corporate Strategic Planning Department, where he is responsible for assessing energy trends, emerging energy technologies, and related market and public policy issues around the world. He is one of the principal contributors to ExxonMobil’s long-term global Energy Outlook. He is also active in communicating ExxonMobil’s view of the future of energy to a wide variety of audiences.

David has worked with Exxon then ExxonMobil since 1997 in numerous technical and management assignments covering activities in the United States and around the world.

He started his career with Exxon Production Research Company in the area of Wellbore Design and eventually became Team Lead for the Well Integrity Group at ExxonMobil Upstream Research.

In 2001, he transferred to ExxonMobil Production Company as a Subsurface Engineer overseeing completion and workover operations in Colorado, Wyoming, California and South Texas.

In 2003, David relocated to Qatar, where he spent six years in a variety of assignments, including Drilling and Completions Engineering Manager. In this role he led a team of engineers working on RasGas’s 14 drilling rigs during the development of the North Field.

In 2009, David transferred back to Houston, joining the ExxonMobil Upstream Research Company as Well Performance Manager and then in 2010, he became the Unconventional Gas Recovery Manager.

The following year, in 2011, David moved to ExxonMobil Headquarters to join the Corporate Strategic Planning team where he is helping in the development of the Energy Outlook for 2013 and beyond.

David holds a Ph.D. in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Minnesota.

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