The Outlook for Energyagmdownload.weebly.com/uploads/1/4/6/3/14639552/gardner.pdf · Coal Natural...

&[MPI Classification] 4/8/2013

1

The Outlook for Energy:A View to 2040

Rob GardnerRob GardnerApril 16, 2013

This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.

Energy Outlook Development

100 countries

15 demandsectors

20 fueltypestypes

technology & policy

ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy


2

1200

1400120

18

21

Energy DemandQuadrillion BTUs

Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040

1 0%

Global Progress Drives Demand

Billion

Population GDPTrillion 2005$


0 8%


2 8%

400

600

800

1000

1200

40

60

80

100

6

9

12

15

18 1.0%0.8% 2.8%

0

200

400

1990 2015 20400

20

1990 2015 20400

3

6

1990 2015 2040


1250

Energy Demand

Quadrillion BTUs

2010-2040 AAGR %

125

Economic Growth Drives Energy Demand

GDP

Trillion 2005$

2010-2040 AAGR %

500

750

1000 Energy Saved ~500

World1.0%

50

75

100

China 5.6%

1.8%Other OECD

Other Non

OECD

3.9%World2.8%

0

250

2000 2020 20400

25

2000 2020 2040

United States 2.3%

OECD



3

300

Energy Demand by Sector

Quadrillion BTUs

2025

2040

Electricity Generation Leads Growth

100

150

200

250

2010

0

50

ElectricityGeneration

Industrial Transportation Res/Comm


250

Industry Energy Demand Increases Quadrillion BTUs

Synthetic RubberSynthetic Rubber

100

150

200

Chemicals

Manufacturing & Industry

PlasticsPlastics

FertilizerFertilizer

SteelSteel

AutomobilesAutomobiles TextilesTextiles

0

50

1990 2015 2040

Industry

Energy Industry

Other

Liquid FuelsLiquid Fuels

CoalCoalNatural GasNatural Gas

AgricultureAgriculture

LubricantsLubricants AsphaltAsphalt



4

35

Chemicals Demand Grows Globally

35

MBDOEBy Region

MBDOE

By Sector

15

20

25

30

15

20

25

30

Asia Pacific

Middle East

Africa

Petrochemicals

0

5

10

2010 2020 2030 2040

0

5

10

2010 2020 2030 2040

Europe

North America

Russia/CaspianLatin America

Fertilizer


250

Industrial Energy DemandBy Fuel

Quadrillion BTUs

El t i it

250

By Region

Quadrillion BTUs

Market Heat

100

150

200

Electricity

Gas

Renewables

Coal

100

150

200

China

India

Rest of Non

OECD

0

50

2000 2020 2040

Oil

0

50

2000 2020 2040

OECD



5

Transportation Sectors

Light Duty Vehicles

CarsCars

Heavy Duty Vehicles

18-wheelers18-wheelers

SUVsSUVs

Pickup TrucksPickup Trucks

BusesBuses

Delivery TrucksDelivery Trucks

TrucksTrucks


75

Sector Demand

MBDOE

Rail

Transportation Demand

30

Demand by Region

MBDOE

‘40

30

45

60 Marine

Heavy Duty

Aviation

10

15

20

25

‘25

‘10

0

15

2000 2020 2040

Light Duty


0

5

AP NA Europe LA ME ROW


6

500 2010

Millions of VehiclesPowertrain Technology

Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes

200

300

400Advanced*

CNG

LPG

Conv. Diesel

Conv. Gasoline

0

100

NorthAmerica

EuropeOECD

OtherOECD

China India Middle East LatinAmerica

Other NonOECD

*Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric VehiclesExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

500 2025



200

300

400Advanced*

CNG

LPG

Conv. Diesel

Conv. Gasoline

0

100

NorthAmerica

EuropeOECD

OtherOECD


Other NonOECD



7

500 2040



200

300

400 PHV/EV

Full Hybrid

CNG

LPG

Diesel Conv

Mogas Conv

0

100

NorthAmerica

EuropeOECD

OtherOECD


Other NonOECD


75

12

15Non OECD

OECD

Growth in Demand from 2010 to 2040

MBDOE

Transportation Fuel Mix

Fuel Demand

MBDOE

Other

Natural Gas

30

45

60

0

3

6

9

12

Diesel

Biodiesel

Jet FuelFuel Oil

Natural Gas

0

15

2000 2020 2040

-6

-3

0

Gasoline Diesel Jet Fuel Fuel Oil NaturalGas

Other

Gasoline

Ethanol



8

35

Electricity Demand Continues to Surge

k TWhBy Sector

Transportation35

k TWhBy Generation

10

15

20

25

30

Residential

10

15

20

25

30

Coal

Nuclear

Gas

Other Industry

Commercial

0

5

10

2000 2020 2040

Heavy Industry

0

5

10

2000 2020 2040

Wind & Solar

Oil

Nuclear

Other Renewables


500500

Tale of Two Worlds

Non OECD

Quadrillion BTUs

Other Renewables

Quadrillion BTUs

OECD

200

300

400

200

300

400Biomass

Nuclear

Coal

Gas

0

100

2000 2020 20400

100

2000 2020 2040

Oil



9

40

CO2 Emissions Plateau

Billion TonsBy Region

20

Tons per PersonEmissions per Capita

20

30

10

15

‘25

Rest of Non OECD

India

China

0

10

2000 2020 20400

5

China India U.S. Europe

‘10 ‘40

OECD


120

Global Liquids and Gas Supply

MBDOE

Global Liquids Supply

Other LiquidsBiofuels 720

BCFD

Global Gas Supply

40

60

80

100

Tight OilOil Sands

NGLs

Deepwater

240

360

480

600

North America Unconventional

Rest of World

Rest of World Unconventional

0

20

2010 2025 2040

Conventional Crude & Condensate

0

120

2010 2025 2040

North America Conventional

Rest of World Conventional



10

151515

Technology Driven Supplies Expand Globally

MBDOE

Deepwater by Region NGL by Region MBDOE

R i C i /

Unconventional Oil by Region MBDOE

Other

6

9

12

6

9

12

6

9

12

Russia-Caspian/ Asia Pacific

Africa

Latin America

Africa

Russia/Caspian/ Asia Pacific

Europe

Middle East Latin America

Middle East

0

3

2000 2020 20400

3

2000 2020 20400

3

2000 2020 2040

North America

Europe

North America

Latin AmericaNorth America


200200

Growth in Unconventional Production

Production by Region

BCFD

Production by Type

BCFD

100

150

100

150

Shale

Rest of World

Asia Pacific

0

50

2000 2020 20400

50

2000 2020 2040

Tight

Coal Bed Methane

Americas



11

30

40

50

North America Energy Balance

Oil

Quadrillion BTUs

Net ImportsNet Imports

Net Exports

40

50

0

10

20

30

2010 2025 2040

Regional Supply

GasNet Exports

75

100

125

Total Energy BalanceNet Exports


0

10

20

30

40

2010 2025 2040

Regional Supply


0

25

50

75

2010 2025 2040

Regional Supply

100

Energy Use Evolves Over Time

Percent

Global Percent Mix of Fuels

Nuclear

Other Renewables

40

60

80

Oil

Gas

Hydro

Nuclear

0

20

1800 1900 20001850 1950 2040

Biomass

Coal

Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960)


12

Conclusions



13

35

Chemicals Demand Sees Significant Growth

MBDOE

By Sector

350

MTA

Ethylene Production

15

20

25

30

150

200

250

300

ROW

Petrochemicals

0

5

10

2010 2020 2030 20400

50

100

2010 2020 2030 2040

Asia Pacific

Fertilizer


60

BCFD

Pipeline

LNG

Local Unconventional

By Type

Global Gas Supply Growth 2010 to 2025

0

20

40

Local Conventional

-20

0

NorthAmerica

Europe Asia Pacific Africa Latin America Middle East Russia/Caspian



14

60

BCFD

Pipeline

LNG

Local Unconventional

By Type

Global Gas Supply Growth 2025 to 2040

0

20

40

Local Conventional

-20

0

NorthAmerica

Europe Asia Pacific Africa Latin America Middle East Russia/Caspian


60

90

Asia Pacific Energy Balance

Oil

Quadrillion BTUs

90

0

30

2010 2025 2040

In-country supply

Gas


200

250

300

350

Total Energy Balance


0

30

60

2010 2025 2040

0

50

100

150

200

2010 2025 2040

In-country supply


In-country supply



15

200

225

Energy Mix Continues to Evolve

Quadrillion BTUs

Average Growth / Yr. 2010 - 2040

20400.8%

1 7%

75

100

125

150

175

2010 - 2040

1.0%2010

1.7%

-0.1%

0

25

50

75

Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass Solar / Wind /Biofuels

Hydro / Geo

2.4% 0.4%

5.8% 1.8%


140140

Industrial Demand Shift Continues

Heavy Industry * ChemicalsQuadrillion BTUsQuadrillion BTUs

40

60

80

100

120

40

60

80

100

120

China

India & Africa

Other Non OECD

0

20

40

1990 2015 20400

20

40

1990 2015 2040

OECD

* Steel, Cement and General ManufacturingExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy


16

120

Liquids Supply

MBDOE

Supply by Type

Other LiquidsBiofuels 40

2040 Liquids Supply by Region

MBDOE

40

60

80

100

20

30

2010

Tight OilOil Sands

NGLs

Deepwater

0

20

2000 2020 20400

10

NA LA R/C AP Eur. Africa ME

Conventional Crude & Condensate


600

Natural Gas Supply and Demand ShiftsGlobal Gas Demand

BCFD

600

BCFD

Global Gas Supply

200

300

400

500

China

IndiaOther

AP

ME

LAAfr.

ROW

200

300

400

500

North America Unconventional

Rest of World Conventional

Rest of World Unconventional

0

100

2010 AP ME LA AFR ROW 2040


0

100

2010 2025 2040

North America Conventional


17

25

Liquids

U.S. Liquids Demand Declines

U.S. Liquids Supply and Demand

MBDOE

10

15

20

11Net Imports

Liquids Demand

Other Petroleum

Biofuels

106 5

4

0

5

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Crude & Condensate


30

Liquids

North America Liquids Supply Grows

North America Liquids Supply and Demand

MBDOE

10

15

20

25

9

Net Imports

Liquids Demand

Other Petroleum

Biofuels

8

3

Canadian Oil Sands

0

5

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Crude & Condensate


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