CBS News Poll: Ohio Frustration, Pessimism and Job Worries (September 28, 2010)
THE OHIO NEWSPAPER POLL
Transcript of THE OHIO NEWSPAPER POLL
THE OHIO NEWSPAPER POLL
By: Eric W. Rademacher, PhD October 24, 2012 Kimberly Downing, PhD
Institute for Policy Research (513) 556-3304
INTERNAL MEMO: NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION
Ohio Newspaper Poll Methodology
These findings are based on the most recent Ohio Newspaper Poll conducted by the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati between October 18 and October 23, 2012. A random sample of 1015 likely voters from throughout the state was interviewed by landline and cellular telephone. In 95 of 100 cases, the statewide estimates will be accurate to plus or minus 3.1 percent.
In addition to sampling error, there are other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording or context effects that can introduce error or bias. Reported percentages may not total to 100% due to rounding. Results reported for subgroups have potential for somewhat larger variation than those for the entire population. Caution should be used in interpreting the findings of specific subgroups. For example, margins of error for subgroup estimates with low numbers of interviews (e.g., Independents, residents of Southeast Ohio) may be substantially larger than those for the overall population (Independents +/- 10%; Southeast Ohio +/- 12%).
The final dataset is comprised of interviews conducted by both landline and cellular telephone. The data have been weighted to correct for potential sampling biases on sex of respondent and region of residence, using voting data published by the U.S. Census and the Ohio Secretary of State. This weighting strategy is similar to that used in election projections for The Ohio Poll. The Ohio Newspaper Poll does not use self-identified partisanship in its weighting methodology. Overall, this Poll found a higher distribution of self-identified Democrats (47%) than Republicans (44%) in the likely voter pool; the remaining 10 percent identified themselves as Independents.
2012 Presidential Election
ROMNEY AND RYAN OBAMA AND BIDEN OTHER DON'T KNOW CountOhio Likely Voters
.Age of Respondent 18 to 29
30 to 4546 to 6465 and over.
Race African - AmericanWhite.
Sex MaleFemale.
Education Less than high school*High school graduateSome collegeCollege graduate.
Party Identification DemocratIndependentRepublican.
Geographical Region Northeast OhioNorthwest OhioCentral OhioSoutheast Ohio*Southwest Ohio.
Enthusiasm Very EnthusiasticSomewhat EnthusiasticNot so / Not Enthusiastic.
49% 49% 1% 1% 976
33% 66% 1% 8149% 46% 2% 2% 19150% 49% 0% 1% 36153% 46% 1% 326
1% 98% 1% 8955% 43% 1% 1% 844
55% 43% 1% 1% 46344% 55% 0% 1% 512
25% 75% 4448% 51% 0% 0% 29949% 49% 1% 2% 26853% 45% 1% 2% 363
6% 93% 1% 44744% 46% 6% 4% 8294% 5% 0% 1% 426
45% 54% 0% 1% 39153% 46% 1% 12047% 51% 1% 1% 16552% 45% 2% 2% 5654% 43% 0% 2% 244
54% 45% 0% 49742% 57% 0% 1% 28345% 48% 3% 4% 187
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2012 Senate Election
MANDEL BROWN OTHER DON'T KNOW CountOhio Likely Voters
.Age of Respondent 18 to 29
30 to 4546 to 6465 and over.
Race African - AmericanWhite.
Sex MaleFemale.
Education Less than high school*High school graduateSome collegeCollege graduate.
Party Identification DemocratIndependentRepublican.
Geographical Region Northeast OhioNorthwest OhioCentral OhioSoutheast Ohio*Southwest Ohio.
Enthusiasm Very EnthusiasticSomewhat EnthusiasticNot so / Not Enthusiastic.
47% 51% 1% 2% 957
40% 56% 4% 8347% 49% 2% 2% 18546% 52% 0% 2% 35749% 50% 1% 0% 316
6% 93% 1% 8752% 46% 1% 1% 829
53% 44% 1% 2% 45541% 57% 2% 503
39% 61% 4444% 53% 1% 2% 29449% 48% 1% 1% 25748% 50% 1% 1% 361
8% 91% 0% 0% 44138% 54% 8% 8290% 9% 1% 1% 413
43% 54% 1% 2% 37749% 50% 1% 11845% 52% 1% 2% 16243% 57% 5753% 44% 0% 2% 242
54% 45% 0% 1% 49138% 60% 1% 1% 27642% 53% 1% 4% 183
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Question 5: Would you say you are … very enthusiastic about this year’s election, somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
VERY ENTHUSIASTIC SOMEWHAT ENTHUSIASTIC NOT SO ENTHUSIASTIC NOT ENTHUSIASTIC AT ALL CountOhio Likely Voters
.Age of Respondent 18 to 29
30 to 4546 to 6465 and over.
Race African - AmericanWhite.
Sex MaleFemale.
Education Less than high school*High school graduateSome collegeCollege graduate.
Party Identification DemocratIndependentRepublican.
Geographical Region Northeast OhioNorthwest OhioCentral OhioSoutheast Ohio*Southwest Ohio.
50% 28% 13% 8% 1006
41% 41% 15% 2% 8537% 38% 15% 10% 19851% 25% 13% 11% 37158% 24% 11% 6% 336
65% 28% 5% 3% 9249% 29% 13% 9% 872
50% 27% 13% 9% 47750% 29% 13% 8% 529
47% 25% 17% 12% 4549% 30% 14% 7% 30748% 29% 15% 8% 27653% 28% 10% 9% 376
48% 33% 11% 8% 45823% 24% 37% 16% 9458% 25% 11% 7% 430
52% 27% 12% 9% 40343% 33% 14% 10% 12454% 30% 10% 6% 16742% 28% 17% 13% 6250% 28% 14% 7% 250
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Question 8: Which of the following describes your vote for Romney? [ASKED ONLY OF THOSE VOTING FOR ROMNEY]
DON'T KNOW CountOhio Likely Voters
.Age of Respondent 18 to 29*
30 to 4546 to 6465 and over.
Race African - American*White.
Sex MaleFemale.
Education Less than high school*High school graduateSome collegeCollege graduate.
Party Identification Democrat*Independent*Republican.
Geographical Region Northeast OhioNorthwest Ohio*Central OhioSoutheast Ohio*Southwest Ohio.
60% 23% 17% 0% 475
55% 34% 11% 2752% 25% 23% 9357% 25% 18% 17967% 17% 15% 1% 171
100% 160% 23% 17% 0% 460
56% 24% 20% 25164% 22% 14% 0% 225
46% 34% 20% 1158% 21% 21% 1% 14462% 23% 15% 13060% 23% 16% 189
33% 40% 23% 4% 2839% 33% 28% 3563% 21% 16% 401
59% 23% 18% 17360% 18% 20% 2% 6364% 26% 11% 7859% 7% 34% 2959% 26% 15% 132
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Question 9: Which of the following describes your vote for Obama? [ASKED ONLY OF THOSE VOTING FOR OBAMA]
DON'T KNOW CountOhio Likely Voters
.Age of Respondent 18 to 29*
30 to 4546 to 6465 and over.
Race African - AmericanWhite.
Sex MaleFemale.
Education Less than high school*High school graduateSome collegeCollege graduate.
Party Identification DemocratIndependent*Republican*.
Geographical Region Northeast OhioNorthwest Ohio*Central OhioSoutheast Ohio*Southwest Ohio.
63% 22% 14% 0% 479
63% 27% 10% 5458% 27% 15% 8965% 19% 16% 17765% 23% 12% 1% 151
84% 7% 8% 8758% 26% 15% 0% 366
56% 25% 18% 1% 19969% 21% 11% 280
70% 22% 8% 3361% 20% 19% 1% 15361% 24% 14% 12967% 23% 10% 162
68% 20% 11% 0% 41433% 37% 29% 3822% 39% 39% 19
60% 24% 17% 21060% 21% 19% 5578% 11% 10% 1% 8461% 27% 12% 2561% 29% 10% 105
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Question 12: Which of the following describes your vote for Mandel? [ASKED ONLY OF THOSE VOTING FOR MANDEL]
DON'T KNOW CountOhio Likely Voters
.Age of Respondent 18 to 29*
30 to 4546 to 6465 and over.
Race African - American*White.
Sex MaleFemale.
Education Less than high school*High school graduateSome collegeCollege graduate.
Party Identification Democrat*Independent*Republican.
Geographical Region Northeast OhioNorthwest Ohio*Central Ohio*Southeast Ohio*Southwest Ohio.
36% 34% 30% 0% 445
24% 56% 20% 3230% 36% 33% 1% 8734% 37% 30% 16645% 25% 30% 154
58% 42% 536% 34% 30% 0% 425
33% 34% 33% 23940% 33% 27% 1% 206
42% 42% 16% 1743% 33% 23% 1% 13030% 36% 33% 1% 12634% 32% 34% 172
22% 55% 22% 3627% 44% 29% 3137% 31% 31% 0% 368
35% 31% 34% 16332% 44% 24% 5834% 37% 29% 7244% 32% 24% 2438% 31% 30% 1% 127
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Question 13: Which of the following describes your vote for Brown? [ASKED ONLY OF THOSE VOTING FOR BROWN]
DON'T KNOW CountOhio Likely Voters
.Age of Respondent 18 to 29*
30 to 4546 to 6465 and over.
Race African - AmericanWhite.
Sex MaleFemale.
Education Less than high school*High school graduateSome collegeCollege graduate.
Party Identification DemocratIndependent*Republican*.
Geographical Region Northeast OhioNorthwest Ohio*Central OhioSoutheast Ohio*Southwest Ohio.
51% 27% 21% 1% 487
36% 42% 23% 4737% 33% 29% 1% 9056% 25% 18% 18457% 22% 19% 2% 157
60% 27% 11% 2% 7950% 26% 23% 1% 384
51% 26% 22% 0% 20151% 27% 21% 1% 286
37% 28% 35% 2654% 23% 22% 2% 15548% 32% 19% 12553% 27% 20% 1% 180
55% 25% 19% 1% 40133% 43% 23% 4425% 35% 40% 36
58% 23% 19% 20543% 33% 22% 2% 5946% 27% 25% 2% 8356% 26% 18% 3344% 31% 24% 1% 107
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Question 14: How much, if anything, have you heard about State Issue 2?
A LOT A LITTLE NOTHING AT ALL DON'T KNOW CountOhio Likely Voters
.Age of Respondent 18 to 29
30 to 4546 to 6465 and over.
Race African - AmericanWhite.
Sex MaleFemale.
Education Less than high school*High school graduateSome collegeCollege graduate.
Party Identification DemocratIndependentRepublican.
Geographical Region Northeast OhioNorthwest OhioCentral OhioSoutheast Ohio*Southwest Ohio.
21% 54% 24% 0% 1011
13% 45% 42% 8613% 49% 39% 20022% 53% 24% 1% 37127% 61% 12% 0% 337
13% 57% 29% 1% 9322% 54% 23% 0% 875
25% 52% 23% 48118% 56% 25% 1% 530
6% 60% 34% 4518% 55% 27% 1% 30718% 54% 28% 0% 27928% 54% 19% 378
20% 54% 25% 0% 45918% 52% 30% 9622% 56% 22% 0% 430
20% 56% 24% 40324% 55% 20% 2% 12425% 52% 22% 1% 17114% 57% 29% 6221% 52% 27% 252
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Question 15: If the election were held today . . . would you vote 'Yes' or 'No' on the constitutional amendment (State Issue 2)?
YES NO NEITHER / NOT SURE / DON'T KNOW CountOhio Likely Voters
.Age of Respondent 18 to 29
30 to 4546 to 6465 and over.
Race African - AmericanWhite.
Sex MaleFemale.
Education Less than high school*High school graduateSome collegeCollege graduate.
Party Identification DemocratIndependentRepublican.
Geographical Region Northeast OhioNorthwest OhioCentral OhioSoutheast Ohio*Southwest Ohio.
Heard About State Issue 2 A lotA littleNothing.
28% 53% 19% 979
29% 49% 22% 8232% 41% 27% 19128% 56% 16% 36625% 58% 17% 325
32% 44% 24% 8828% 54% 18% 848
29% 58% 13% 46727% 48% 25% 511
19% 56% 26% 4126% 53% 20% 30426% 55% 19% 27032% 51% 17% 363
41% 39% 20% 44433% 49% 18% 9113% 69% 17% 419
25% 54% 20% 39128% 58% 14% 12235% 46% 19% 16330% 48% 21% 5827% 54% 19% 245
44% 52% 5% 21225% 57% 19% 53421% 45% 33% 227
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Question 16a: Who do you think would do the best job handling foreign policy, Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?
ROMNEY OBAMA EQUAL / NEITHER DON'T KNOW CountOhio Likely Voters
.Age of Respondent 18 to 29
30 to 4546 to 6465 and over.
Race African - AmericanWhite.
Sex MaleFemale.
Education Less than high school*High school graduateSome collegeCollege graduate.
Party Identification DemocratIndependentRepublican.
Geographical Region Northeast OhioNorthwest OhioCentral OhioSoutheast Ohio*Southwest Ohio.
46% 50% 3% 1% 1010
32% 65% 2% 1% 8548% 48% 3% 1% 20045% 51% 4% 0% 37150% 46% 3% 1% 338
2% 97% 1% 9351% 45% 4% 1% 874
51% 46% 3% 0% 48041% 54% 4% 1% 530
24% 71% 5% 4543% 51% 4% 2% 30947% 49% 3% 1% 27850% 47% 3% 1% 375
7% 89% 2% 1% 46036% 51% 12% 1% 9489% 8% 3% 1% 432
44% 52% 4% 1% 40445% 47% 5% 3% 12447% 51% 2% 16946% 48% 5% 2% 6248% 48% 3% 1% 251
Page 10 of 18
Question 16b: Who do you think would do the best job handling the economy, Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?
ROMNEY OBAMA EQUAL / NEITHER DON'T KNOW CountOhio Likely Voters
.Age of Respondent 18 to 29
30 to 4546 to 6465 and over.
Race African - AmericanWhite.
Sex MaleFemale.
Education Less than high school*High school graduateSome collegeCollege graduate.
Party Identification DemocratIndependentRepublican.
Geographical Region Northeast OhioNorthwest OhioCentral OhioSoutheast Ohio*Southwest Ohio.
51% 45% 3% 1% 1008
39% 57% 3% 1% 8553% 43% 4% 0% 19951% 46% 2% 1% 37153% 42% 4% 1% 337
5% 93% 2% 1% 9356% 40% 3% 1% 872
58% 39% 3% 1% 47945% 51% 4% 1% 529
28% 65% 7% 4548% 48% 4% 1% 30951% 45% 4% 1% 27856% 41% 2% 1% 374
9% 87% 4% 0% 45754% 36% 9% 2% 9594% 4% 2% 0% 432
47% 49% 4% 0% 40254% 43% 3% 1% 12450% 47% 2% 1% 16952% 45% 3% 6256% 39% 4% 1% 252
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DON'T KNOW CountOhio Likely Voters
.Age of Respondent 18 to 29
30 to 4546 to 6465 and over.
Race African - AmericanWhite.
Sex MaleFemale.
Education Less than high school*High school graduateSome collegeCollege graduate.
Party Identification DemocratIndependentRepublican.
Geographical Region Northeast OhioNorthwest OhioCentral OhioSoutheast Ohio*Southwest Ohio.
29% 21% 48% 1% 1008
25% 14% 60% 1% 8524% 22% 54% 1% 20031% 21% 48% 1% 37130% 23% 44% 3% 336
51% 1% 47% 1% 9326% 23% 49% 2% 872
27% 26% 45% 1% 48031% 16% 51% 2% 528
33% 7% 57% 2% 4528% 18% 51% 4% 30730% 23% 46% 1% 27829% 23% 47% 376
54% 3% 42% 1% 45829% 22% 49% 963% 39% 57% 1% 431
32% 21% 44% 2% 40331% 17% 51% 2% 12429% 19% 50% 1% 16822% 27% 50% 2% 6225% 22% 52% 1% 252
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Question 18: Would you say the presidential debates will make you more likely to vote for Romney, Obama, or not make a difference?
DON'T KNOW CountOhio Likely Voters
.Age of Respondent 18 to 29
30 to 4546 to 6465 and over.
Race African - AmericanWhite.
Sex MaleFemale.
Education Less than high school*High school graduateSome collegeCollege graduate.
Party Identification DemocratIndependentRepublican.
Geographical Region Northeast OhioNorthwest OhioCentral OhioSoutheast Ohio*Southwest Ohio.
23% 14% 62% 2% 1010
15% 28% 54% 2% 8624% 12% 63% 2% 20022% 12% 65% 1% 37225% 13% 60% 2% 335
2% 28% 69% 2% 9325% 12% 61% 1% 874
26% 11% 62% 1% 47919% 17% 62% 2% 531
19% 32% 47% 2% 4521% 14% 63% 3% 31022% 14% 62% 1% 27825% 11% 62% 1% 374
3% 26% 68% 2% 45819% 11% 65% 5% 9544% 1% 55% 0% 431
20% 17% 62% 1% 40324% 13% 59% 4% 12526% 15% 58% 1% 17014% 10% 75% 2% 6126% 11% 61% 2% 251
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Question 19: Would you say Romney's 47% comments will make you more likely to vote for Romney, Obama, or not make a difference?
DON'T KNOW CountOhio Likely Voters
.Age of Respondent 18 to 29
30 to 4546 to 6465 and over.
Race African - AmericanWhite.
Sex MaleFemale.
Education Less than high school*High school graduateSome collegeCollege graduate.
Party Identification DemocratIndependentRepublican.
Geographical Region Northeast OhioNorthwest OhioCentral OhioSoutheast Ohio*Southwest Ohio.
14% 32% 54% 0% 1012
16% 36% 48% 8612% 32% 55% 1% 20014% 31% 55% 0% 37316% 31% 53% 0% 336
61% 38% 1% 9316% 28% 55% 0% 876
18% 28% 54% 1% 48111% 35% 54% 0% 531
16% 32% 53% 4515% 31% 53% 0% 31014% 33% 52% 0% 27813% 31% 55% 1% 376
2% 59% 39% 4578% 33% 58% 96
28% 3% 68% 1% 432
15% 33% 52% 1% 40416% 29% 53% 2% 12510% 34% 55% 16916% 33% 51% 6214% 30% 57% 252
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Question 20: We often hear from candidates that voters should be scared if their opponent wins the election. Which of the following best describes you?
DON'T KNOW CountOhio Likely Voters
.Age of Respondent 18 to 29
30 to 4546 to 6465 and over.
Race African - AmericanWhite.
Sex MaleFemale.
Education Less than high school*High school graduateSome collegeCollege graduate.
Party Identification DemocratIndependentRepublican.
Geographical Region Northeast OhioNorthwest OhioCentral OhioSoutheast Ohio*Southwest Ohio.
29% 29% 39% 3% 0% 1010
13% 28% 57% 1% 8625% 24% 47% 4% 20030% 30% 37% 3% 1% 37137% 30% 31% 2% 0% 336
1% 63% 34% 2% 9333% 25% 39% 3% 0% 874
32% 23% 44% 2% 47928% 35% 34% 4% 1% 532
24% 48% 28% 4528% 31% 38% 2% 0% 30932% 31% 34% 3% 0% 27829% 24% 43% 3% 0% 376
2% 57% 39% 2% 0% 45821% 18% 54% 7% 9660% 2% 35% 2% 0% 431
28% 34% 35% 3% 0% 40328% 27% 39% 5% 1% 12427% 28% 42% 3% 17122% 27% 48% 2% 2% 6136% 22% 40% 2% 252
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Question 21: Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the way Governor Kasich is handling his job as governor?
CountOhio Likely Voters
.Age of Respondent 18 to 29
30 to 4546 to 6465 and over.
Race African - AmericanWhite.
Sex MaleFemale.
Education Less than high school*High school graduateSome collegeCollege graduate.
Party Identification DemocratIndependentRepublican.
Geographical Region Northeast OhioNorthwest OhioCentral OhioSoutheast Ohio*Southwest Ohio.
23% 28% 5% 9% 3% 13% 18% 993
17% 34% 13% 13% 2% 13% 8% 8219% 33% 5% 10% 3% 16% 15% 19720% 29% 5% 7% 4% 13% 21% 37031% 24% 4% 9% 3% 13% 17% 328
1% 23% 4% 16% 5% 16% 35% 9126% 29% 6% 8% 3% 13% 16% 859
28% 29% 5% 6% 3% 12% 17% 47519% 28% 6% 11% 4% 15% 19% 517
22% 25% 5% 16% 4% 10% 18% 4420% 29% 5% 11% 3% 14% 18% 30622% 28% 6% 9% 5% 14% 15% 27227% 28% 5% 6% 2% 12% 20% 369
4% 25% 5% 11% 4% 20% 31% 45124% 30% 6% 8% 2% 15% 14% 9443% 32% 6% 7% 2% 6% 4% 423
23% 26% 5% 10% 4% 13% 19% 39615% 39% 10% 5% 3% 13% 15% 12328% 32% 4% 4% 2% 12% 18% 16717% 20% 6% 11% 3% 15% 26% 6226% 27% 4% 13% 3% 14% 14% 245
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Question 22: Would you say Kasich deserves a second term as governor, or not?
DON'T KNOW CountOhio Likely Voters
.Age of Respondent 18 to 29
30 to 4546 to 6465 and over.
Race African - AmericanWhite.
Sex MaleFemale.
Education Less than high school*High school graduateSome collegeCollege graduate.
Party Identification DemocratIndependentRepublican.
Geographical Region Northeast OhioNorthwest OhioCentral OhioSoutheast Ohio*Southwest Ohio.
52% 37% 11% 982
49% 36% 15% 7851% 36% 13% 19550% 39% 11% 36457% 34% 9% 329
31% 58% 12% 9155% 34% 10% 849
56% 34% 9% 47048% 39% 13% 513
56% 37% 7% 4450% 38% 12% 30250% 38% 12% 26955% 35% 10% 365
27% 60% 12% 44753% 34% 13% 9178% 13% 9% 420
51% 37% 12% 39259% 32% 9% 12355% 38% 7% 16438% 49% 13% 6152% 34% 13% 243
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Question 23: Do you think the casinos will be mostly good, mostly bad, or a mix of both for Ohio?
MOSTLY GOOD FOR OHIO MOSTLY BAD FOR OHIO DON'T KNOW CountOhio Likely Voters
.Age of Respondent 18 to 29
30 to 4546 to 6465 and over.
Race African - AmericanWhite.
Sex MaleFemale.
Education Less than high school*High school graduateSome collegeCollege graduate.
Party Identification DemocratIndependentRepublican.
Geographical Region Northeast OhioNorthwest OhioCentral OhioSoutheast Ohio*Southwest Ohio.
24% 17% 58% 1% 1011
34% 11% 55% 8627% 8% 64% 1% 20022% 18% 60% 1% 37322% 21% 54% 3% 336
24% 7% 68% 1% 9224% 17% 57% 2% 876
27% 17% 55% 1% 48121% 17% 61% 1% 530
27% 16% 54% 3% 4526% 21% 52% 2% 30926% 14% 59% 2% 27720% 15% 63% 1% 377
29% 10% 61% 1% 45918% 17% 61% 4% 9420% 23% 56% 1% 432
25% 17% 56% 2% 40523% 15% 62% 1% 12421% 15% 64% 1% 16920% 22% 56% 2% 6225% 17% 56% 1% 251
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