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![Page 1: The Ohio DOT Inflation Forecasting and Related Activities Jennifer McAllister, Ohio DOT presenting for Jeff Hisem.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d875503460f94a6bda5/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
The Ohio DOT Inflation Forecasting and Related Activities
Jennifer McAllister, Ohio DOT presenting for Jeff Hisem
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What is BART??
• Who does inflation forecasting at Ohio DOT?– BART (Bid Analysis & Review Team)
• Created by Jeff Hisem, Office of Estimating• Multi-person group combines the knowledge and
expertise of economics and construction• Currently 2 economists • Open position for engineer/construction experience
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04/19/23
BART’s History with Forecasting
• In 2005 BART was requested to track and explain historical trends in construction prices.
• Starting in 2006, BART was requested by the director to create an inflation forecast.– In March 2006, BART presented its first forecast
Cost Estimation and Inflation Trends
• Produce forecast January and July each year– Annual forecast out five years into future
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Predicting OhDOT Construction Cost Inflation
• Monitor past OhDOT in-place construction cost trends.
• Research developments for key construction commodities.
• Model likely scenarios of in-place construction costs
04/19/23
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04/19/23
Yearly Composite with Base Year Centered to (Jan 2002=100)
ODOT In-Place Construction Cost Index Aug2004 Aug2005 Aug2006 Aug2007 Aug2008Aug'07-Aug'08
Growth
Aggregate Base (304) [ 3%] 105.4 106.5 130.1 132.3 138.2 4.5%
Asphalt (Surface and Intermediate Courses) [ 26%] 107.1 116.8 143.8 165.5 178.3 7.7%
Asphalt Bituminous Base (301 & 302) [ 4%] 106.8 117.0 145.8 162.6 173.6 6.8%
Drainage [ 7%] 110.0 113.5 140.2 132.5 132.0 -0.4%
Earthwork [ 11%] 101.4 109.6 125.1 147.9 160.6 8.6%
Guardrail [ 3%] 102.9 123.3 125.4 129.5 131.1 1.2%
Maintenance of Traffic [ 9%] 112.7 107.6 100.5 103.2 96.4 -6.6%
Pavement Marking [ 3%] 133.4 144.9 163.8 168.7 178.4 5.7%
Portland Cement Concrete Pavement [ 5%] 112.1 120.2 136.0 145.2 139.9 -3.7%
Structures including Maintenance [ 29%] 104.6 122.8 130.8 144.6 153.5 6.2%
Composite ODOT Construction Index 107.5 117.4 132.0 146.4 153.7 5.0%[The weight given to each category for calculating the Composite.]
Monitor Construction Cost Trends
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04/19/23
0%
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Annualized Monthly Inflation ChangeODOT Construction Cost Index
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OhDOT In-Place Vs. BLS Hwy Index
04/19/23
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Composite ODOT Construction Index BLS Highway Construction Cost Index (PCUBHWY)
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Research Developments for Key Construction Commodities
Key Drivers• Aggregate• Ready Mix Concrete
– Cement
• Energy– Oil
• Diesel• Liquid asphalt
– Electricity
– Natural gas
• Steel• Labor
Macro Issues• US Construction Demand• Exchange rates• World demand• Regional Factors
– Ohio construction economy– Commodity specific
supply/demand
04/19/23
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“How might we model scenarios of in-place construction costs?”
1. Consultant– Pay for a final forecast
2. Best guess based upon industry publications3. A spreadsheet model tracking labor, energy,
materials, and equipment costs– Provides a system for a rudimentary forecast
4. Purely statistical model – Provides a statistically defensible forecast
• Methods 3 and 4 allow for in-house scenario testing
Simple
Complex
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Model Likely Scenarios Of In-Place Construction Costs (continued)
• Key considerations for forecasting group– Group with multiple perspectives– Unbiased & insulated from politics– Group consensus forecast (not an average)– Inclusive process that informs key stake holders:
• Planning• Finance
} Provide insight about OhDOT’s future spending plans so that these expenditures can be included in the forecast model.
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Predicted Cost Inflation CY06-CY10: January 2006
CY06 CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10
High 12.0% 7.0% 6.0% 6.0% 5.0%
Most Likely 8.5% [12.6%] 5.5% 5.0% 4.0% 4.0%
Low 7.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0%
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11
High 14.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.5% 5.5%
Most Likely 11.5% [11.6%] 6.0% 4.5% 4.0% 4.0%
Low 8.0% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 3.0%
Predicted Cost Inflation FY07-FY11: July 2006
[%] – Actual construction cost inflation (OhDOT Construction Cost Index)
Historical OhDOT Forecasts
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CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11
High 10.5% 9.5% 7.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Most Likely 6.0% [6.3%] 5.5% 5.0% 4.0% 4.0%
Low 4.0% 3.5% 3.5% 3.0% 3.0%
Predicted Cost Inflation CY07-CY11: January 2007
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12
High 14.5% 14.0% 13.0% 10.0% 8.0%
Most Likely 10.0% [4.4%] 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 5.0%
Low 7.0% 6.5% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0%
Predicted Cost Inflation FY08-FY12: July 2007
Historical OhDOT Forecasts
[%] – Actual construction cost inflation (OhDOT Construction Cost Index)
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FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12
Business Plan 10.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0%
Budget Forecast Inflation FY08-FY12: November 2007
CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12
High 7.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0%
Most Likely 5.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.5% 4.5%
Low -1.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0%
Predicted Cost Inflation CY08-CY12: January 2008
Historical OhDOT Forecasts
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FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
High 12% 10% 9% 8% 7%
Most Likely 7.5% 6% 5% 4% 4%
Low 4% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Predicted Cost Inflation FY09-FY13: July 2008
Historical OhDOT Forecasts
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Application of inflation forecast
• Inflation adjust bid histories for creation of bid history models used in Estimator and CES.
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Application of inflation forecast
• OhDOT administration determines own inflation forecast for program budgeting
(after BART construction cost forecast)• Budget forecast application
– Planning future road maintenance costs.– Planning estimates for major projects.
• In Estimator software inflation applied as contingency.
• Inflation calculated for mid-year of construction– “Inflation calculator:” tool available to aid calculation
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Review Forecast to Actual
• Continually improve the methods for forecasting
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Energy
• Diesel– Of all our commodities, diesel is the most prone to international
influences
• Liquid Asphalt– Pricing is regionally based– Few regional refineries – OhDOT is a major consumer of asphalt*– Shortage of polymer modified asphalt
• Production interactions between asphalt, diesel, and gasoline affect pricing
• Speculation trading
• Exchange Rates04/19/23
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Energy – Liquid Asphalt• OhDOT placing index
– Indicator of state asphalt binder prices
ODOT Asphalt Placing Index ($/ton)
346 355 379407
437
553
393421 441 467
500
613
300350400450500550600650
Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08
PG 64-22 PG 70-22M
55% Increase in CY 200859% Increase in CY 2008
04/19/23
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West Texas Intermediate Oil Price: Four Scenarios
04/19/23
BART,($160, Dec - 2009)
Investment Bank Forecasts
($200, Dec - 2009)
Regulated Market Forecasts
($102, Dec - 2009)$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
Dol
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BART Estimate WTI - Historical High Oil Low Oil
Scenario Modeling - 17Jul2008.xlsxScenario Modeling - 17Jul2008.xlsxScenario Modeling - 17Jul2008.xlsxScenario Modeling - 17Jul2008.xlsx
Futures Contracts -Nominal Terms ($149, Dec - 2009)
Scenarios incorporated in July 2008 construction cost forecast.
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Steel
• Iron & Steel Products (WPU101) rose 37% from December 2007 through June 2008.
04/19/23
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04/19/23
Iron and Steel Producer Price Index
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Steel• Input costs and manufacturing costs:
– Rising energy and transport costs
– Rising thermal and coking coal prices
– Increases in iron ore & scrap steel costs in 2008.
• Weak dollar– Reduced imports
– Increased exports
• Result: rapidly rising prices in short-term– Iron & Steel Products (WPU101) rose 37% from December
2007 through June 2008.
• Assumption: Short-term price increases that are maintained in the long-term.
04/19/23
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U.S. Gross Domestic Product
• GDP growth acts as a proxy for overall construction demand in the US.
• GDP ASSUMPTIONS:– BART – GDP growth is slow in the short term and improves towards the
long term rate of ~ 3% - 4%
04/19/23
Calendar Year
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
US GDP GROWTH:
0.50% 0.75% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.00%
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Commodities, GDP and the OhDOT Index
• STAGFLATION: “an inflationary period accompanied by rising unemployment and lack of growth in consumer demand and business activity”
– For the first time, OhDOT forecasts an economic future in which we must marry rising commodity prices with an overall depressed demand for construction services.
OhDOT Index = ƒ(commodity prices, economy’s health)
04/19/23
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Competition and Inflation
04/19/23
Through many studies, OhDOT has proven that increased competition has a downward effect on prices. Recent declines in vendor competition may be a
result of the challenges associated with volatile commodity prices.
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3 Month Avg. # of Bidders per Worktype
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Average # of Asphalt Bidders) 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Average # of Bridge Repair Bidders)
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Average # of Earthwork Bidders) 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Average # of General Bidders)
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Statistical Inflation Forecast Model
• The model says that most of the movement of the OhDOT Cost Index since 2002 can be estimated by tracking:
– West Texas Intermediate Oil Prices
– Steel Mill Prices
– The Price for Asphalt binder type PG 64-22
– U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
OTHER WORK:
– Review peer works
– Contact other economic professionals
04/19/23
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Vendor Analysis
• How is vendor behavior affecting competition and thus prices?– Who owns whom?– Are there sole-source owners?– Founded on game theory from the business and
economics realms
• Using this analytical work, BART can provide suggestions for modifying bidding rules to enhance competition as the construction environment changes over time.
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Industry Analysis
• BART provides situational awareness– BART understands how events external to the
jobsite affect prices.
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OhDOT Actual Composite, BART Modeled Index and the Combined Actual and Predicted Inflation Rates
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Actual Composite Predicted Composite Combined Actual & Predicted Inflation Rate
Forecasted
Scenario Modeling - 17Jul2008.xlsx04/19/23