The North American Truckload Marketplace @ YE2009

25
Select Views of the North American Truckload Freight Transportation Marketplace, Past & Present Including Its Key* TL and Dedicated Service Participants. *Excepting privately-held Schneider National, Inc., and U.S. Xpress Enterprises, Inc., for which data details are not publicly available. Thom A. Williams, managing director March 27, 2010

description

 

Transcript of The North American Truckload Marketplace @ YE2009

Page 1: The North American Truckload Marketplace @ YE2009

Select Views of the North American Truckload

Freight Transportation Marketplace,

Past & Present

Including Its Key* TL and Dedicated Service Participants.

*Excepting privately-held Schneider National, Inc., and U.S. Xpress Enterprises, Inc., for which data details are not publicly available.

Thom A. Williams, managing director March 27, 2010

Page 2: The North American Truckload Marketplace @ YE2009

AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC

The Changing Times:

The Good:

Vs.

The Bad:

Page 3: The North American Truckload Marketplace @ YE2009

AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC

And The Ugly:

Page 4: The North American Truckload Marketplace @ YE2009

© 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations.

Leading Carriers' Truckload Revenues,2006 thru 2009 (Excluding Fuel Surcharges):

$0

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

$1,200,000

$1,400,000

$1,600,000

$1,800,000

$2,000,000

$2,200,000

$2,400,000

$2,600,000

2006 2007 2008 2009

Carrier TruckloadRevenues,US$s in thousands

$0

$500,000

$1,000,000

$1,500,000

$2,000,000

$2,500,000

$3,000,000

$3,500,000

$4,000,000

$4,500,000

$5,000,000

$5,500,000

$6,000,000

CH RobinsonTrucking Revenues,US$s in thousands

FrozenFood P.A.M. USA Truck Marten Universal Celadon

Heartland Ryder-DCC est. Covenant Con-way Knight TransForce

J.B. Hunt Landstar Werner Swift CH Robinson

Despite that it neither owns trucks nor operates as a Contract Carrier, CHRW generates TL revenues equaling Swift, WERN, LSTR and JBHT combined! E.g.: ~$6.1 bil. in '08; $5.2 bil. in '09.

But the real truckers are yet another story: Seldom have so many worked so long, and driven so many miles, to accomplish little more than staying alive!

CAUSE FOR CONCERN:Major shippers' growing adoptions of truckload freight transportation procurement, spend optimization, and managed bidding program software packages and related services (from Manugistics, LeanLogistics, Manhattan Associates, and others) increasingly challenge TL carriers' revenue and profit growth prospects.

Fiscal YE June 30th for Celadon; all others are YE Dec. 31.

Page 5: The North American Truckload Marketplace @ YE2009

© 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company and DOE reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations.

Leading Carriers' Truckload Revenues, 2006 thru 2009 (Including Fuel Surcharges):

$2.705

$2.882

$3.807

$2.467

$0

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

$1,200,000

$1,400,000

$1,600,000

$1,800,000

$2,000,000

$2,200,000

$2,400,000

$2,600,000

$2,800,000

$3,000,000

$3,200,000

2006 2007 2008 2009

Carrier TruckloadRevenues,US$s in thousands

$0.000

$0.500

$1.000

$1.500

$2.000

$2.500

$3.000

$3.500

$4.000

Avg. On-road DieselPrice, US$s/gal.

FrozenFood P.A.M. USATrk. UniversalMarten Heartland Ryder - DCC CeladonCovenant Con-way Knight TransForceJ.B.Hunt Landstar Werner SwiftNational avg.$/gal. diesel fuel price Fiscal YE June 30th for Celadon; all others are YE Dec. 31.

Page 6: The North American Truckload Marketplace @ YE2009

© 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, Cass Info Systems, company reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations.

Leading Carriers' Total Truckload Miles:

Swift

Werner

Cov

enan

t

Kni

ght

Cel

adon

Con

-way

P.A

.M.

USA

Tru

ckMarten

0.920

1.100

1.2491.278

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2009200820072006

Total miles driven(loaded + empty)

in thousands

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

Cass Freight Indexre: Shipment Volumes(Jan. 1990 = 1.00)

Swift Werner Covenant KnightCeladon Con-way P.A.M. USA TruckMarten CassFreightIndex - Shipments

Fiscal YE June 30th for Celadon; all others are YE Dec. 31.

To understand why truckload freight movements and truckers' miles declined so harshly, according to the new and ingenious Ceridian-UCLA "PCI Index," we need only look to the three components of GDP (goods, services, and structures). Services comprise 63% of GDP and never seem to decline. The volatility lies in Goods and Structures — the 37% of GDP that gets loaded onto and transported via trucks.When we stopped building and remodeling and consumers ceased buying durable goods, truckload freight assignments "fell off the cliff."

Note: Certain carriers do not report mileage details to their shareholders.

Page 7: The North American Truckload Marketplace @ YE2009

© 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations.

YE 2006 Truckload Carriers' Relative MarketsharesHow these 16 leading carriers divided ~US$12.0 billion of '06 truckload revenues (FSC excluded):

Con-way1%

Landstar11%

TransForce5%

Werner13%

J.B. Hunt13%

Swift21%

Covenant, 5%

Knight, 5%

Heartland, 4%

Ryder-DCCest. 4%

Universal4%

Celadon3%

Marten3%

USA Truck3%

P.A.M.3%

FrozenFood2%

Swift J.B. Hunt Werner Landstar TransForce Covenant Knight HeartlandRyder-DCC est. Universal Celadon Marten USA Truck P.A.M. FrozenFood Con-way

Fiscal YE June 30th for Celadon;all others are YE Dec. 31. U.S. Express Enterprises Inc. (XPRSA) was publicly held throughout 2006 and then generated ~$1.2 billion of TL and Dedicated trucking revenues (FSC

excluded). XPRSA was privatized during 2007 via a deal in which Max Fuller and Pat Quinn paid ~$192 million cash to shareholders for the ~9.5 million XPRSA common shares not owned by Fuller & Quinn. Subsequent details of XPRSA are thus unavailable.

Page 8: The North American Truckload Marketplace @ YE2009

© 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations.

2009 Truckload Carriers' Relative MarketsharesHow these 16 leading carriers divided ~US$10.3 billion of '09 truckload revenues (FSC excluded):

P.A.M.2%

Universal3% FrozenFood

2%USA Truck

3%Marten

3%Celadon4%Heartland

4%

Ryder-DCCest. 4%

Covenant, 5%

Con-way, 5%

Knight5%

Swift20%

Werner12%

Landstar11%

TransForce6% J.B. Hunt

11%

Swift Werner Landstar J.B. Hunt TransForce Knight Con-way CovenantRyder-DCC est. Heartland Celadon Marten USA Truck Universal P.A.M. FrozenFood

In May 2007, Jerry Moyes, et al., privatized the publicly-held Swift, by paying $1.52 billion for the 61.7% of SWFT's outstanding shares not owned by Moyes. By YE '07 Swift had recorded ~$258 million of goodwill & other asset impairment charges as to that deal.

Fiscal YE June 30th for Celadon; all others are YE Dec. 31.

As to relative market shares of base revenues, little, if anything, has changed in the three years since YE 2006!

Only JBHT evidences significant progress with intentional downsizing of its standard truckload operations, successfully opting to focus on the more-profitable itermodal and other alternatives.

CNW acquired TL carrier CFI during August 2007 for ~$752 million. CFI disclosed '06 revenues of ~$427 million. During '09 CNW recorded a CFI-related goodwill impairment charge of ~$135 million as to that purchase.

Page 9: The North American Truckload Marketplace @ YE2009

© 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations.

Leading Carriers' Truckload Operating Incomes(after Goodwill impairment charges), 2006 thru 2009

Covenant-$55,679

Con-way-$106,971

JBH

T, $

51,4

42

Hea

rtla

nd, $

78,9

64

Kni

ght,

$79,

680

Wer

ner,

$84,

524

Swift -$126,386

Swift

, $12

0,31

7

($130,000)

($80,000)

($30,000)

$20,000

$70,000

$120,000

$170,000

$220,000

2006 2007 2008 2009

Truckload Operating Incomes,US$s in thousands

FrozenFood est. P.A.M. USATrk. est. Covenant est. Universal est. Celadon TransForce Con-way est.Marten Ryder - DCC Landstar est. J.B.Hunt Heartland Knight est. Werner Swift est.

Fiscal YE June 30th for Celadon; all others are YE Dec. 31.

Page 10: The North American Truckload Marketplace @ YE2009

© 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations.

Leading Carriers' Truckload Operating Incomes(excluding Goodwill impairment charges), 2006 vs. 2009

FrozenFood P.A.M.USATrk.

Uni

vers

al

Cov

enan

t

Cel

adon Tr

ansF

orce

Mar

ten

Con

-way

Ryd

er-D

CC

Land

star

est

.

J.B

.Hun

t

Hea

rtla

nd

Kni

ght

Wer

ner

Swift

($30,000)

$20,000

$70,000

$120,000

$170,000

$220,000

2006 2009

Truckload Operating Incomes,US$s in thousands

FrozenFood est. P.A.M. USATrk. est. Universal est. Covenant est. Celadon TransForce MartenCon-way est. Ryder - DCC Landstar est. J.B.Hunt Heartland Knight est. Werner Swift est.

Fiscal YE June 30th for Celadon; all others are YE Dec. 31.

Page 11: The North American Truckload Marketplace @ YE2009

© 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations.

Leading Carriers' TL Revenues (inc. FSC) Per Total Mile (Loaded + Empty Miles):

P.A

.M.,

$1.4

3

Cov

enan

t, $1

.45

Con

-way

, $1.

48

USA

Tru

ck, $

1.52

Cel

adon

, $1.

54

Swift

, $1.

57

Froz

enFo

od, $

1.58

Wer

ner,

$1.6

4

Marten$1.72

$2.705

$2.882

$3.807

$2.467

$1.25

$1.50

$1.75

$2.00

2006 2007 2008 2009

Revenue per totalmile, US$s

$0.000

$0.500

$1.000

$1.500

$2.000

$2.500

$3.000

$3.500

$4.000

Avg. On-road DieselPrice, US$s/gal.

P.A.M. Covenant Con-wayUSA Truck Celadon SwiftFrozenFood Werner MartenNational avg.$/gal. diesel fuel price

Fiscal YE June 30th for Celadon; all others are YE Dec. 31.

Might this be a textbook display of Swarm Intelligence?These leading, and many lesser, truckers incessantly bid against each other, and themselves, in well-executed bidding programs orchestrated by major shippers, yet not one within the swarm of

major truckload carriers invites multiple shippers to open biddingfor the carrier's available capacity.

Perhaps they should experiment on eBay!

Note: Certain carriers do not report mileage details to their shareholders.

Page 12: The North American Truckload Marketplace @ YE2009

© 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations.

Leading Carriers' TL Operating Incomes (excluding Goodwill impairment charges),

Per Total Mile (Loaded + Empty Miles):

P.A.M.$0.128

P.A.M., -$0.095

USATruck$0.089

USA Truck, -$0.031

Cov

enan

t, $0

.023

Covenant, -$0.028

Covenant, -$0.085

Cov

enan

t, $0

.009

Cel

adon

, $0.

108

Cel

adon

, $0.

031

Con

-way

, $0.

073

Swift

, $0.

132

Swift

, $0

.081

Wer

ner,

$0.1

53

Wer

ner,

$0.

097

Mar

ten,

$0.

138

Mar

ten,

$0.

099

Knight$0.323

Knight$0.220

-$0.100

-$0.080

-$0.060

-$0.040

-$0.020

$0.000

$0.020

$0.040

$0.060

$0.080

$0.100

$0.120

$0.140

$0.160

$0.180

$0.200

$0.220

$0.240

$0.260

$0.280

$0.300

$0.320

$0.340

2006 2007 2008 2009

Opr. Income pertotal mile, US$s

P.A.M. USA Truck Covenant Celadon Con-way Swift Werner Marten KnightFiscal YE June 30th for Celadon; all others are YE Dec. 31. Note: Certain carriers do not report mileage details to their shareholders.

Page 13: The North American Truckload Marketplace @ YE2009

© 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations.

Leading Carriers' Truckload Avg. Revenues (inc. FSC)

per Truck/Month, '06 vs. '09:

UACL$9,422

SwiftLSTR PTSI CGI

FFEX USAK HTLDJBHTKNX

CVTI MRTN

CNWWERN$16,313

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000

$20,000

2006 2009

Truckload Revenues,US$s in thousands

Universal Swift Landstar P.A.M. Celadon FrozenFood USA Truck Heartland

JB Hunt Knight Covenant Marten Con-way Werner

Fiscal YE June 30th for Celadon; all others are YE Dec. 31.

Misery loves company! Sharp fall-offs of shipping volumes, combined with intense pricing competitions,have much narrowed the bands of measured per-truck revenue productivity.

Note, e.g, that HTLD's ~35% decline left WERN as the leader.Using near identical tools (trucks & trailers), providing near identical services, and facing shippers' constant

bidding wars, the major truckload carriers have increasing difficulties faring much better than their industy cousins!

Note: Neither Ryder-DCC nor TFI disclose fleet sizes.

Page 14: The North American Truckload Marketplace @ YE2009

© 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations.

Leading Carriers' Net Fuel Costs (Fuel expense, less FSC revenue) Per TL Mile:

$0.219$0.214

$0.189

$0.144

Marten$0.217

Cov

enan

t, $0

.203

$0.1

98

P.A

.M.,

$0.1

93$0.2

11

USA

Tru

ck, $

0.18

8

Knight$0.166

Cel

adon

, $0.

140

Con-way$0.136

Werner$0.081

$0.0

99

Swift$0.074

$0.095

$0.000

$0.030

$0.060

$0.090

$0.120

$0.150

$0.180

$0.210

$0.240

$0.270

$0.300

$0.330

2006 2007 2008 2009

Marten Covenant P.A.M. USA Truck Knight Celadon Con-way Werner SwiftFiscal YE June 30th for Celadon; all others are YE Dec. 31.

Fuel surcharge revenues have slightly reduced many carriers' unrecovered fuel

expense per total mile;but not at Covenant!

Note: Certain carriers do not report mileage details to their shareholders.

Page 15: The North American Truckload Marketplace @ YE2009

© 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations.

Leading Carriers' TL Fuel Expense (net of FSC revenue),as % of base TL revenues:

Knight, 12.51%

Froz

enFo

od, 1

4.60

%

Froz

enFo

od, 1

6.08

%

Cov

enan

t, 15

.99%

Cov

enan

t, 14

.57%

P.A.M.15.68% P.A.M., 15.46%

Mar

ten,

14.

85%

Mar

ten,

14.

43%

USA

Tru

ck, 1

4.24

%

USA Truck,16.54%

J.B. Hunt,13.96%

J.B.Hunt12.47%

Heartland,12.54%

Heartland13.22%

Knight,11.29%Celadon, 10.72% Celadon, 10.95%

Con-way, 10.21%

Werner,6.78%

Werner,5.64%

Swift, 6.59%

Swift, 5.34%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

2006 2009

FrozenFood Covenant P.A.M. Marten USA Truck J.B. Hunt Heartland Knight Celadon Con-way Werner Swift

Are Swift and Werner uniquely astute buyers of fuel and super-efficient collectors of FSCs? Or are the other carriers just sloppy?5% to 10% of base revenue is far too much to leave behind!

Fiscal YE June 30th for Celadon; all others are YE Dec. 31.

Page 16: The North American Truckload Marketplace @ YE2009

© 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations.

Leading Carriers' Truckload Fleet Sizes, 2009 vs. 2006

Landstar, 8,967

Landstar, 8,779

JB Hunt, 10,523

JB Hunt, 7,502

Werner, 8,757

Werner, 7,321

Knight, 3,446 Universal, 3,420

Celadon, 2,732 Covenant, 3,546

Heartland, 2,363 Con-way, 2,513 USA Truck, 2,512

P.A.M., 1,998 FrozenFood, 1,972

Swift, 17,929

Swift, 16,686

Knight, 3,718

Universal, 3,387 Celadon, 3,168 Covenant, 3,111 Heartland, 2,914

Con-way, 2,900 USA Truck, 2,338 Marten, 2,264

Marten, 2,504

P.A.M., 1,730 FrozenFood, 1,530

0 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000

2006

2009

Total Class 8 Trucks inTruckload Service

SPECIAL NOTE: This a logarithmic scale, from Zero to 100,000.

Since YE 2006, these leading truckload carriers' capacities (trucks available for dispatch)

have declined much less thancertain industry observers predicted.

Note: Neither Ryder-DCC nor TFI disclose fleet sizes.

Page 17: The North American Truckload Marketplace @ YE2009

© 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: Transport Topics and Fleet Owner directories and www.safersys.org.

For-hire Truckload Fleet Sizes @ YE 2009, the 28 Current Leaders:

Greatwide, 5,897 Crete, 5,398

CR England, 3,600 Prime, 3,555

CRST, 3,357 Ruan, 3,333

Comcar, 3,088 Dart, 2,708 Western Express, 2,590

Anderson, 2,309 Mercer, 2,137 AAA Cooper, 2,106

Landstar, 8,779 JB Hunt, 7,502 Werner, 7,321

Knight, 3,718 Universal, 3,387

Celadon, 3,168 Covenant, 3,111

Heartland, 2,914 Con-way, 2,900

USA Truck, 2,338

P.A.M., 1,730 FrozenFood, 1,530

Schneider National, 15,300

U.S. Xpress, 8,453

Swift, 16,686

Marten, 2,264

0 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000

1

Total Class 8 Trucks inTruckload Tervice

SPECIAL NOTE: This a logarithmic scale, from Zero to 100,000.

The 14 U.S. truckload carriers herein detailed

operate ~67,000class 8 tractors in the

TL & dedicated markets.

Another 14 U.S. truckload carriers (all privately-held) operate ~63,800 additional

class 8 tractors in the sameTL & dedicated markets.

Page 18: The North American Truckload Marketplace @ YE2009

© 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: Transport Topics and Fleet Owner directories and www.safersys.org.

Leading For-hire TL Carriers' Truckload Fleets, in Context:

58,679

9,882

9,526

7,500

6,891

5,456

3,100

2,500

2,458

2,450

1,984

1,897

1,800

1,648

1,587

67,347

0 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000

1

Total Class 8 Trucks inTruckload Service

14 Leading Private Shipper Fleets Pepsi (Pepsico + Bottling + Americas) Coca Cola (Enterprises + Bottling) Sysco Corp.Wal-Mart U.S. Foodservice McLane Co. Tyson FoodsDr Pepper Snapple Group Dean Foods Reyes Holdings Performance Food GroupAgrium Cemex USA Pilgram's Pride 14 Leading For-hire TL Fleets

Agrium operates 1800 class 8 tractors

Reynes Holdings operates 1,984 class 8 tractors

Performance Foods operates 1,897 class 8 tractors

Cemex USA operates 1,648 class 8 tractors

Dean Foods operates 2,450 class 8 tractors

DrPepper Snapple operates 2,458 class 8 tractors

Tyson Foods operates 2,500 class 8 tractors

Pilgram's Pride operates 1,587 class 8 tractors

McLane operates 3,100 class 8 tractors

US Foodservice operates 5,456 class 8 tractors

Wal-Mart operates 6,891 class 8 tractors

Sysco operates 7,500 class 8 tractors

Coca-Cola, et. al. operates 9,526 class 8 tractors

Pepsico, et. al., operates 9,882 class 8 tractors

The 14 here-discussed U.S. TL carriers at YE '09 operated ~67,000 class 8 tractors in pursuit of truckload freight transportation revenues.

While these 14 major shipper-customers operate almost as many class 8 tractors solely to support their primary business activities:

The above-listed 14 major shipper-customers operate ~59,000 class 8 tractors solely to support their primary business activities.

SPECIAL NOTE:This a logarithmic

scale, fromZero to 100,000.

Via growing shipper collaborations and well-

directed private fleet routing programs, these

substantial private operations daily,

forcefully compete directly for the paid load

assignments and revenue miles upon

which major and minor truckers depend for

survival!See, e.g.:

www.emptymiles.com

c

Page 19: The North American Truckload Marketplace @ YE2009

© 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, and NYSE and NASDAQ records.

Publicly-held North American TL Carriers - Market Values @ 3/26/2010

Marten, $425

Celadon, $304

Universal, $273

USA Truck, $174

P.A.M., $126

Covenant, $85

J.B. Hunt, $4,540

Landstar, $2,080

Ryder, $2,060

Con-way, $1,740

Knight, $1,690

Werner, $1,680

Heartland, $1,450

TransForce, $934

FrozenFood, $71

$0.001 $0.010 $0.100 $1.000 $10.000 $100.000 $1,000.000 $10,000.000

Market Capitalization@ 3/26/2009, US$s in millions

SPECIAL NOTE: This a 3 decimal point logarithmic scale, from Zero to $10.0 billion).

Trucking operations herein detailed accounted for ~64% of LSTR's '09 gross revenues.

Truckling operations herein detailed accounted for ~10% of R's '09 gross revenues.

Trucking operations herein detailed accounted for ~38% of JBHT's '09 gross revenues.

Trucking operations herein detailed accounted for ~36% of TFI's '09 gross revenues.

Trucking operations herein detailed accounted for ~76% of UALC's '09 gross revenues.

Trucking operations herein detailed accounted for ~63% of FFEX's '09 gross revenues.

Trucking operations herein detailed accounted for ~91% of CVTI's '09 gross revenues.

Trucking operations herein detailed accounted for ~87% of PTSI's '09 gross revenues.

Trucking operations herein detailed accounted for ~96% of USAK's '09 gross revenues.

Trucking operations herein detailed accounted for ~95% of CGI's '09 gross revenues.

Trucking operations herein detailed accounted for ~77% of MRTN's '09 gross revenues.

Trucking operations herein detailed accounted for ~94% of KNX's '09 gross revenues.

Trucking operations herein detailed accounted for ~87% of WERN's '09 gross revenues.

Trucking operations herein detailed accounted for ~100% of HTLD's '09 gross revenues.

Trucking operations herein detailed accounted for ~13% of CNW's '09 gross revenues.

Page 20: The North American Truckload Marketplace @ YE2009

© 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K and company reports.

Biggest Winners of Late in the North American Trucking:

Shareholders of Swift Transportation received ~$1.5 billion cash from Jerry Moyes,et al., in May 2007.

Shareholders of Contract Freighters received ~$752.3 million cash from CNWin August 2007.

Shareholders of Werner received Werner's two special cash dividends: $150.3 million in Dec. 2008; $89.9 million in Dec. 2009.

Shareholders of Heartland received Heartland's special cash dividend of $196.2 millionin May 2007.

Shareholders of U.S. Xpress received ~$191.7 million cash from Max Fuller and Pat Quinnin October 2007.

Shareholders of Smithways Motor Xpress received ~$54 million cash from Western Express in October 2007.

Shareholders of Star Transportation received ~$40.1 million cash from Covenantin September 2006.

$0.0 $100.0 $200.0 $300.0 $400.0 $500.0 $600.0 $700.0 $800.0 $900.0 $1,000.0 $1,100.0 $1,200.0 $1,300.0 $1,400.0 $1,500.0 $1,600.0

Collections @ withdrawal,US$s in millions

Recently, the big winners inNorth American Trucking

have been those shareholders who,via sale or special dividends,withdrew considerable funds

from the truckload sector!

Page 21: The North American Truckload Marketplace @ YE2009

© 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company and DOE reports, and AmherstAlpha's "musings."

Thoughts on Future Marriages of Leading Carriers:

Swift

P.A.M.

USATruck

FrozenFood

MartenCeladon

CovenantHeartland

KnightCon-way

TransForce

RyderDCC

J.B.Hunt

Universal

Landstar

Werner

$0

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

$1,200,000

$1,400,000

$1,600,000

$1,800,000

$2,000,000

$2,200,000

$2,400,000

2009

Carrier TruckloadRevenues,US$s in thousands

P.A.M. USATrk. FrozenFood Marten Celadon Covenant Heartland Knight Con-way

TransForce Ryder - DCC J.B.Hunt Universal Landstar Werner Swift Fiscal YE June 30th for Celadon;all others are YE Dec. 31.

#1#2

#3#4 #5

#6#7

Considerations:#1 - USAK's young management could revitalize PSTI; would the Morouns swap their PTSI stock for USAK's?#2 - Far better than most others, MRTN could surely apply its reefer strengths to improve FFEX.#3 - Acquiring CVTI could bring real critical mass to CGI; are Russell and Parker compatible?#4 - The pristine balance sheets, exemplary operating ratios, and barely-overlapping geographies of KNX and HTLD are attractive merger ingredients.#5 - A CNW acquisition of TFI could strengthen Con-way's Canadian LTL presence and much augment CNW Truckload's NAFTA-focused Truckload portfolio.#6 - JBHT could readily absorb R's dedicated unit and instantly push JBHT's DCS segment annual operating income well above $100 million. And,#7 - UACL's large fleet of owner-operators, plus its body of independent agents, paint UACL as a unique, large "tuck in" acquisition for LSTR, which could liquiditize the Morouns' stake in UACL, and possibly also add Moroun experience to LSTR's insurance operations.

Note, too, KNX's recent quiet disclosure that during '09 it "negotiated an option ... to purchase first 49%, then [later] 51% of a [$450 million annual revenue truckload carrier]." KNX form10-K for 12/31/2009, pg. 3.

Swift's future could find it within Ceva, along with either PACR or HUBG.

And WERN might fit well within Toll Holdings, orDB Schenker.

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AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC

Major Shippers Use Increasingly Sophisticated Tools to TL Carriers’ Pricing Disadvantage:

Page 23: The North American Truckload Marketplace @ YE2009

© 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov.

As Diesel Fuel Prices Fast Again Head North:

$2.935/gallon

$2.092/gallon

$2.000

$2.100

$2.200

$2.300

$2.400

$2.500

$2.600

$2.700

$2.800

$2.900

$3.000

Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10

Avg. On-road DieselPrice, US$s/gal.

With the average on-road price of diesel fuelnow ~$0.84/gal. higher than just one year ago, and with big trucks averaging ~6.0 MPG, today it costs truckers ~$0.14 more per mile to transport a truckload cargo than it cost in March 2009!

The EIA's March 9, 2010,Short-term Energy Outlook

states that "On-highway diesel fuel retail prices, which averaged

$2.46 per gallon in 2009,will average $2.96 per gal. in 2010

and $3.14 in 2011."

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AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC

Prompting Truckers to Wonder:

What Comes Next?

Page 25: The North American Truckload Marketplace @ YE2009

Q & A

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