The North American LTL Marketplace @ YE2009

Select Views of the North American Less than Truckload

Freight Transportation Marketplace

Past & Present,

Including Its 10-Largest & Publicly-held LTL Service Providers.

Thom A. Williams, managing director March 10, 2010

AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC

Certain Objects of Our Attention:

AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations..

LTL Shipment VolumesOf the top 10 publicly-held LTL carriers, 2006 thru 2009

FDX, 17,085,000 FDX, 19,941,000

FDX, 20,323,500

FDX, 18,972,000

CNW, 14,544,893 CNW, 15,264,882

CNW, 14,854,580

CNW, 14,809,233

UPS, 9,638,000 UPS, 10,481,000

UPS, 10,036,000

UPS, 9,880,000

SAIA, 6,177,000 SAIA, 6,888,000

SAIA, 6,710,000

SAIA, 6,428,000

ODFL, 6,428,000 ODFL, 6,765,000

ODFL, 6,691,000

ODFL, 5,750,000

ABFS, 5,690,505 ABFS, 5,393,652

ABFS, 5,017,807

ABFS, 4,396,293

TFI (est.), 3,330,182 TFI (est.), 3,688,367

TFI (est.), 4,159,831

TFI (est.), 3,739,055

VTNC, 3,007,985

VTNC, 4,040,306

VTNC, 3,930,049

VTNC, 3,705,152

FWRD, 2,325,556

FWRD, 2,318,897

FWRD, 2,295,299

FWRD, 2,095,223

YRCW, 23,515,000

YRCW, 33,848,000 YRCW, 38,646,000

YRCW, 40,117,000

0

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

120,000,000

2006 2007 2008 2009

The Top 10'sTotal LTL Shipments

YRCW FDX CNW UPS SAIA ODFL ABFS TFI (est.) VTNC FWRDFiscal YE May 31st for FDX; all others are YE Dec. 31.

During 2009, these top 10 LTL providers carried 15.8 million fewer shipments (-13.9%) than they did in 2006. YRCW's dramatic 41.4% volume decline (i.e., in '09 YRCW had 16.6 million fewer shipments than in '06) surely helped the others remain afloat!

AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K.

LTL Shipments vs. Retail Import Cargo Container TEU Volumes

YRCW

FDX

CNW

UPS

SAIA ODFL

AB

FSTF

I (es

t.) VTNC

FWRD0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

2006 2007 2008 2009

LTL Shipments,in 000s

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

10,000,000

11,000,000

12,000,000

13,000,000

14,000,000

15,000,000

16,000,000

17,000,000

Import Cargo ContainerTEU Volumes

YRCW FDX CNW UPS SAIA ODFL ABFS TFI (est.) VTNC FWRD NFR-PortTrackerRetail TEUs

While total LTL shipments carried by these top 10 declined ~14% from '06 thru '09, the National Retail Federation reports that total containers shipped to major U.S. retail container ports fell by ~23% during the same 3-year period.

NRF forecasts of container imports during 2010 change frequently, but still anticipate increases beyond the YE '09 volumes.

Fiscal YE May 31st for FDX; all others are YE Dec. 31.


LTL RevenuesOf the top 10 publicly-held LTL carriers, 2006 thru 2009

ODFL, $1,401,542 ODFL, $1,537,724

ODFL, $1,245,005

SAIA, $976,123 SAIA, $1,030,421

SAIA, $849,141

TFI, $488,790

TFI, $533,847 TFI, $646,653

TFI, $523,966

VTNC, $441,499

VTNC, $584,786 VTNC, $610,933

VTNC, $519,215

FWRD, $299,600

FWRD, $313,162 FWRD, $336,200

FWRD, $268,245

YRCW$8,446,149

YRCW$8,170,277 YRCW

$7,659,677 YRCW

$4,751,462

FDX$3,645,000

FDX$4,586,000 FDX

$4,934,000

FDX$4,415,000

CNW$2,852,909

CNW$2,904,543

CNW$3,015,959

CNW$2,574,300

UPS$1,831,000

UPS$2,013,000

UPS$2,062,000

UPS$1,943,000

ABFS$1,810,328

ABFS$1,770,749

ABFS$1,758,780

ABFS$1,384,419

ODFL, $1,279,431

SAIA, $874,738

$2.705

$2.882

$3.807

$2.467

$0

$2,500,000

$5,000,000

$7,500,000

$10,000,000

$12,500,000

$15,000,000

$17,500,000

$20,000,000

$22,500,000

$25,000,000

2006 2007 2008 2009

LTL RevenuesUS$s in thousands

$2.350

$2.550

$2.750

$2.950

$3.150

$3.350

$3.550

$3.750

Avg. On-road DieselPrice, US$s/gal.

YRCW FDX CNW UPS ABFS ODFL SAIA TFI VTNC FWRD DieselAvg.$/gal.Fiscal YE May 31st for FDX; all others are YE Dec. 31.

Fuel surcharge increases considerably masked declining shipments and otherwise dull revenue growths.

CAUSE FOR CONCERN: Recent proliferations of LTL-focused rate-comparison, bidding-program and LTL-consolidation software packages such as CzarLite, Bid$ense, DSi and others have quashed any pricing power leverages the LTL leaders held in earlier years!


2006 LTL Carriers' Relative MarketsharesHow the top 10 publicly-held LTL carriers divided US$22.7 billion of '06 LTL revenues:

UPS$1,831,000

8%

ABFS$1,810,328

8%

CNW$2,852,909

13%

FDX$3,645,000

16%

YRCW$9,207,200

40%

ODFL$1,279,431

6%

SAIA$874,738

4%TFI, $488,790 2%

VTNC, $441,499 2%

FWRD $299,600 1%

YRCW FDX CNW UPS ABFS ODFL SAIA TFI VTNC FWRD

UPS entered the LTL sector with its August '05 cash acquisition of Overnite Corp. for ~$1.25 billion. Overnite reported $1.4 billion of LTL Revenue and $63 million net income @ YE2004.

On 5/24/2005, YRCW acquired USF Corp. for ~$1.3 billion, $835.4 million in cash and 9 million shares of YRCW stock (valued at $51.62 per share). The USF acquisition increased YRCW's YE2005 revenue by ~$1.5 billion and YE2005 operating income by $59 million.

In a late 2003 display of acquisition hubris, YRCW paid ~$1.2 billion (~$1.08 bil. in cash and stock, plus ~$120 mil. in net debt) to buy Roadway Corp., which had YE2002 tangible net worth of $104 million and 2002 LTL revenues and net income of ~$2.8 billion and ~$35 million, respectively.And FDX acquired Watkins on 9/3/2006, for $787

million cash. Earlier, Watkins reported $1.1 billion of calendar-year '05 LTL revenue; the acquisition added ~$760 million to FDX's fiscal YE05/31/07 LTL revenues.



2009 LTL Carriers' Relative MarketsharesHow the top 10 publicly-held LTL carriers divided US$18.4 billion of '09 LTL revenues:

TFI$515,168

3%SAIA$849,141

5%

ODFL$1,245,005

7%

YRCW$4,811,917

26%

FDX$4,415,000

24%

CNW$2,574,300

14%

ABFS$1,384,419

7%

UPS$1,943,000

10%

VTNC$519,215

3% FWRD$268,245

1%

YRCW FDX CNW UPS ABFS ODFL SAIA TFI VTNC FWRD

ABFS recorded a $64 million goodwill-intangible asset impairment charge in '09.

UPS recorded $584 million of write-downs to its Overniterelated goodwill-intangible assets during '08.

FDX recorded $90 million of write-downs to its Watkins-related goodwill-intangible assets during '09.

Saia booked $35.5 million of goodwill-intangible asset write-downs during '08, earlier established as the as result of three acquisitions.

During '08 Vitran wrote off $107.4 million of LTL acquisition-related goodwill-intangible assets.

In the three years following '06, YRCW recorded ~$1.8 billion of goodwill-intangible asset impairment charges, completely negating its USF and Roadway acquisition values. And,

Late in 2009 YRCW sold its only profitable operating segment (Dedicated Fleet), to Greatwide Logistics for ~$34 million; YRCW later reported that segment had revenue of ~$74 million and operating income of ~$7 million for YE2009.



Changes in LTL Revenues, YE 2009 vs. YE 2006

YRCW, -$3,695

ABFS, -$426

CNW, -$279ODFL, -$34 FWRD, -$31 SAIA, -$26 UPS, -$24

TFI (est.), +$35 VTNC, +$78

FDX, +$770

($3,750)

($3,250)

($2,750)

($2,250)

($1,750)

($1,250)

($750)

($250)

$250

$750

1

Revenue loss or gain,2009 vs. 2006,US$s in millions



LTL Revenue CAGRs, YE 2006 to YE 2009

FDXCAGR =+6.6%VTNC

CAGR =+5.6%

TFI (est.)

CAGR = +2.3%

UPSCAGR =

-0.4%

CNWCAGR =

-3.4%

FWRDCAGR =

-3.6%ODFL

CAGR =-0.9%

YRCWCAGR =-17.4%

SAIACAGR =

-1.0%ABFS

CAGR =-8.6%

-18.0%

-16.0%

-14.0%

-12.0%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

YRCW ABFS FWRD CNW SAIA ODFL UPS TFI (est.) VTNC FDX

LTL Revenues, Compounded Annual Growth Rate (+ or -), YE '06 to YE '09

As the noted transport industry analysts John Larkin and David Ross, of Stifel Nicolaus, recently asked:"Which is the prettiest house in this ugly neighborhood?"



LTL Operating Incomes(after deductions for LTL-specific intangible asset and goodwill impairment charges)

YRCW-$899

AB

FS, -

$169 FD

X, -$

44

SAIA

, -$4

VTN

C, -

$3TF

I (es

t.), $

22

FWR

D, $

27

CN

W, $

51

OD

FL, $

70

UPS

, $77

($1,100)

($900)

($700)

($500)

($300)

($100)

$100

$300

$500

2006 2007 2008 2009

LTL OperatingProfit or (Loss), US$s in millions

YRCW ABFS FDX SAIA VTNC TFI (est.) FWRD CNW ODFL UPSFiscal YE May 31st for FDX; all others are YE Dec. 31.


LTL Operating Income per LTL Shipment(after deductions for LTL-specific intangible asset and goodwill impairment charges)

YRCW($38.23)

YRCW($31.73)

YRCW($14.62)

FDX($2.32)

CNW$3.46

UPS($43.76)

UPS$30.08

ABFS($38.37)

ODFL$12.24

SAIA($0.57)

SAIA($1.47)

TFI(est.)$5.98

VTNC($0.71)

VTNC($25.03)

FWRD$12.93

($45.00)

($40.00)

($35.00)

($30.00)

($25.00)

($20.00)

($15.00)

($10.00)

($5.00)

$0.00

$5.00

$10.00

$15.00

$20.00

$25.00

$30.00

$35.00

2006 2007 2008 2009

LTL Operating Profit,per LTL Shipment

US$s

YRCW FDX CNW UPS ABFS ODFL SAIA TFI (est.) VTNC FWRDFiscal YE May 31st for FDX; all others are YE Dec. 31.


LTL Operating Income per LTL Shipment(excluding deductions for LTL-specific intangible asset and goodwill impairment charges)

YRCW($36.94)

ABFS($23.83)

VTN

C, (

$0.7

1)

SAIA

, ($0

.57)

FDX,

$2.

42

CN

W, $

3.46

TFI (

est.)

, $5.

98

UPS

, $7.

82

OD

FL, $

12.2

4

FWR

D, $

13.0

3

($38.00)

($30.00)

($22.00)

($14.00)

($6.00)

$2.00

$10.00

$18.00

$26.00

$34.00

2006 2007 2008 2009

LTL Operating Profitor (Loss) perLTL Shipment, US$s

YRCW ABFS VTNC SAIA FDX CNW TFI (est.) UPS ODFL FWRDFiscal YE May 31st for FDX; all others are YE Dec. 31.


LTL Revenue per LTL Shipment

YRC

W

FDX

CN

W UPS

AB

FS

OD

FLSA

IA

TFI (

est.)

VTN

C

FWR

D

$2.705

$2.882

$3.807

$2.467

$0.00

$50.00

$100.00

$150.00

$200.00

$250.00

$300.00

$350.00

2006 2007 2008 2009

LTL Revenue perLTL Shipment, US$s

$1.000

$1.250

$1.500

$1.750

$2.000

$2.250

$2.500

$2.750

$3.000

$3.250

$3.500

$3.750

$4.000

Avg. On-roadDiesel, US$s/gal.

YRCW FDX CNW UPS ABFS ODFL SAIA TFI (est.) VTNC FWRD DieselAvg.$/gal.Fiscal YE May 31st for FDX; all others are YE Dec. 31.

FDX and ODFL each achieved an approx. 9% total increase in avg. revenue per shipment over the past3 years; all others suffered declines.


Publicly-held North American LTL Carriers - Market Values on March 9, 2010

UPS, $63,200

FDX, $28,480

CNW, $1,720

ODFL, $1,240

TFI, $941

FWRD, $763

ABFS, $741

YRCW, $525

SAIA, $189

VTNC, $188

0.00 0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 100.00 1,000.00 10,000.00 100,000.00

Market Capitalization@ 3/09/2009, US$s in millions

SPECIAL NOTE: This a 2 decimal point logarithmic scale, from Zero to $100.00 billion ($100,000.00 millions).

SPECIAL NOTE as to both FDX and UPS:Though here included in this summary of publicly-held LTL carriers' market capitalization, LTL operations play only small roles in the "totalities" of FDX and UPS. I.e., during YE 2009 LTL business generated just 12.4% of FDX's $35.5 billion of total revenue, and just 4.0% of UPS's $45.3 billion revenue total.


Biggest Winners of Late in the North American LTL Sector:

The former shareholders ofUSF Corp. received~$1.3 billion from YRCW

The former shareholders of Overnite Corp. received~$1.25 billion from UPS

The former shareholders ofWatkins received~$787 million from FDX

The former shareholders ofPJAX received$116 million from VTNC

The former shareholders of ChrisTrucking received$31 million from VTNC

$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 $1,000 $1,100 $1,200 $1,300 $1,400

Sellers Receivedthese sale proceeds,US$s in millions

Recently, the only big winners in the LTL sector have been those

owners who found eager buyers, accepted their offers, cashed in

their chips, and went home!

AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC

While Major and Minor Shippers Use Increasingly Sophisticated Tools to LTL Carriers’

Pricing Disadvantage:

Q & A

For further details and/or inquiries, please contact:

The North American LTL Marketplace @ YE2009

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