The Next New Energy Thing Ron Swenson August 9, 2007 .

The Next New Energy Thing

Ron Swenson August 9, 2007

www.OilCrisis.com

More people are catching on to Peak Oil…

But what are we going to do when it’s gone?

Swenson’s Law To avoid

deprivation, humanity must match depletion with conservation and enduring substitution.

www.OilCrisis.com/Swenson

120

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0 0 10 20 30 40

Time

Consequences of Delayed Energy Investment

begin investment before decline

Net Energy Production

Begin investment during decline

www.OilCrisis.com/BeyondOil

What do the “experts” have to offer?

www.OilCrisis.com/Library

The Party's Over

“Photovoltaic electricity is still expensive.”

Richard Heinberg

www.OilCrisis.com/apollo2

Beyond Oil

“Solar electrical generation is not yet competitive for large-scale facilities...”

Kenneth S. Deffeyes


I thought we were talking about Energy!?

So how did Economics (an instrument of policy) get into the picture?

Oil, Jihad & Destiny

“Solar power technology, however, is still in the stone age.”

Ronald R. Cooke

www.OilCrisis.com/Youngquist

The Long Emergency “… solar

power ... works, though not nearly as well as fossil fuel …

James Howard Kunstler


“But all of them combined -- sun, wind, and water -- could never produce enough energy to replace the astronomical amounts of fossil fuel the West is consuming...”

Pierre Chomat

Oil Addiction: The World in Peril

www.OilCrisis.com/debate/oilcalcs.htm

“[While] the costs of wind, solar and biomass have declined due to steady technical advances, in key areas of energy quality—density, net energy, intermittency, flexibility, and so on—they remain

inferior to conventional fuels…

Cutler Cleveland

The Oil Drum, only yesterday

Energy State and Quality (Grade)“In contrast to its vast quantity, the quality of solar energy is low relative to fossil fuels.

Cutler Cleveland

So let me explain how this works: First, you invent a new term with emotional overtones – quality – to describe a very simple mechanical concept – concentration. Then you use that term to promote your agenda.

Energy State and Quality (Grade)“In contrast to its vast quantity, the quality of solar energy is low relative to fossil fuels.

[] “The EROI for fossil fuels tends to be large while that for solar tends to be low.

“Higher energy densities also contribute to the higher EROI for fossil fuels relative to many renewable fuels.”

Cutler Cleveland

Tell that to a street vendor in Mexico City.

… and what was the premise of converting solar field energy into fuel in the first place?

… unless you consider depletion, ecological footprint of extraction, or the implications of ephemeral technology.

Energy States: Solid, Liquid, G a s, Field

Global Solar Energy BalanceSolar Energy Input (TeraWatts)

178,000

Reflected to Space Immediately 53,000

Absorbed and Then Reflected as Heat 82,000

Used to Evaporate Water (Weather) 40,000

Captured by Plant Photosynthesis 100

Total Energy Used by Human Society 13

Total Energy Used by US Society 2.5

Total Human Food Energy 0.6

www.OilCrisis.com/debate/oilcalcs.htm

We have a huge allowance …

www.OilCrisis.com/Apollo2

We just have to do our homework!

Thomas Edison “I'd put my

money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don't have to wait 'til oil and coal run out before we tackle that.”

(1847-1931) www.ThomasEdison.com

Transportation runs on oil …

… So let’s focus on that.

What can we learn from history?

How did transportation morph … • from solid fuels (hay and then coal)…• to liquid fuels (oil)?

And where do we go from here?

Lest we forget …They did bring coal to Newcastle.

...not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.

Van Buren 18328th President 1837-1841

If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …

No joke!

The original buggy whip protest

The Horseless Carriage

From GridLock to Gas Lines

Now we turn back to Corn for Cars & Beans for Buses?

The All-New DonCar!

www.OilCrisis.com/Transport

It is criminal to burn food in cars.

• If there were no alternative, we could perhaps tolerate some experimentation.

• But there is an alternative… and it is better in so many ways.

Internal Combustion …

• Take 26.5 Quads of oil

• Turn 21.2 into smoke

• Use 5.3 to run things

… How incredibly wasteful!?

So what are we going to do?

Basky

Remember, Sunshine is …

… a field …… not a fuel!

Electricity. Not exactly a new idea…

Touch?

… and it is ephemeral, like solar power.

See?

A match made in heaven.

Lift?

The Electric Rail

Personal Rapid Transit (PRT)

www.SolarEvolution.com/PRT

Freeway at Capacity

Vehicles Removed

PRT Passengers

PRT System

What is PRT?• Personal Rapid Transit (Pod cars)

• Created in 1970s, Morgantown, WV

• 1-4 passengers

• Driverless

• Solar powered, electric drive

• Non-stop to destination

• Vectus, Sweden, 2007

• ULTra, London Heathrow, 2008

Solar on Rail

www.SolarEvolution.com/SkyTran

SkyTran Solar

Solar SkyTran, with aesthetics emphasis and added power at stations

Solar on Rail


Similar Solar Systems Exist

PRT advantages

1. Faster 2. Safer 3. Quieter4. Cheaper5. Less energy 6. Zero emissions7. Helps transit-oriented development8. Driverless = enjoyable commute time

PRT considerations

• Requires government approval• Sometimes obstructs views • Upfront investment => long-term

savings• Complex software ~ air traffic

control• Overcome entrenched interests

Where is the PRT track?

Transportation Energy for 100 PeopleBattery Electric PRT

Vehicles 100 20

Total weight (tons) 200 5

Battery weight (tons) 25 1

Recycle batteries ? % 99%

Embodied energy ratio 50 1

Battery losses 15% <1%

Rolling Resistance (at 60 mph) 5000 watt 500 watt

Aerodynamic Drag (at 60 mph) 7000 watt (cd=0.2) 750 watt (cd=0.1)

Parasitic energy Consumption 275 6

Energy use (watt-hr/mile) ~150 ~50 (skytran)

Safety ≈ two 747s/week die Very safe

Quality of life 1 hr per day lost Quality time in transit

30 mph, operating speed

x 2 sec (vehicle interval)

= 88 ft between vehicles

= 60 vehicles/mi, separated by interval specified

x 2 kw @ operating speed

= 120 kw needed in a mile stretch

10 hrs at peak operation equivalent

÷ 4 hrs of peak sun equivalent (Coast = 4, Desert = 6)

= 2.5 solar factor

120 x 2.5 = 300 kW/mile

x $6.00 /watt

$1,800,000 /mi

16 watts / sq ft, SunPower, most efficient on market

3.5 ft wide solar panel to meet requirement

Calculate Solar size, cost per Mile

25 mpg, average fleet mileage

27,000 passengers per day to match

2.0 people/vehicle

13,500 vehicles/day

x $2.50 /gallon fuel price

= $33,750 Cost to travel fleet mileage daily

$ 12,318,750 Annual cost to travel fleet mileage

$ 45,000,000 Cost of solar to cover fleet mileage

= 3.7 years payback for solar system to offset gasoline

Compare Solar to Gasoline at $2.50/gallon


If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result. Captains, cooks, drivers, repairment, and lock tenders will be left without means of livelihood, not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.

Boat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute.

Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832.

Solar Industry Response?


Goals• 50% US electricity by 2025 ≠• 200 gW by 2030 = 10%

How to get there? • Federal government procurement

$100 m/year• R&D investment $250 m/year by

2010• “Enact, modify, establish, boost,

support, increase, strengthen, grow…”

Inadequate

InadequateInconsistent

Inconsistent

Inconsistent

Inconsistent

At least somebody gets it!

www.OilCrisis.com/Smalley

Richard Smalley discovered “Bucky Balls” – Fullerenes

The Terawatt Challenge

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OilCoa

lGas

Fission

Biomas

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Hydro

electr

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Solar,

wind, g

eoth

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0.5%

Source: BP & IEA

2004

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Fusio

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electr

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Solar,

wind

, geo

therm

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2050

14.5 Terawatts220 M BOE/day

30 -- 60 Terawatts450 – 900 MBOE/day

The Basis of Prosperity 20st Century = Oil 21st Century = Renewables


120,000 TW of solar energy received by the Earth

www.ecotopia.com/Apollo2

Total Area Required for a Photovoltaic Power Plant to Produce the Total U.S. Annual Electrical Demand

Nevada

P109-G1055201

Total Area Required for a PV Power Plant to Produce the Total US Electrical Demand

www.ecotopia.com/Apollo2

PV: The Growth Industry

OilOil

PVPV

Oil declines at 4%/yr

PV increases at 50%/yr


Can Solar Energy Substitute for Oil?

Yes!

“Think TeraWatts”


www.Solarevolution.com

More information about Net Yield

Thermodynamics of Coal

Plus…• Greenhouse gases • Ravaged land• Water contamination• People displaced• Extraction uses oil

EROI = 927 ~ electric quality

1 BOE

Thermodynamics of Oil

It depends …• Pennsylvania?• Saudi Arabia?• Off-shore?

Plus …• Ravaged land/oceans• Greenhouse gases• Water contamination

EROI = 10±

EROI = 4 12 ~ electric

Thermodynamics of Nuclear

Plus …

• Depletion

• Low grade ores → Greenhouse gases to process

• Waste guard for 10,000+ years

… How do we value a 1,000+ year wasteland?

Thermodynamics of Tar Sands

Plus…• Greenhouse gases• Ravaged land• Water contamination• Extraction uses

natural gas

EROI = 3Why bother?!

Thermodynamics of Hydrogen

Am I missing something?!

EROI = -½

Thermodynamics of PV

• EROI: 5 years

• Life: 50 years

• Plus it can be bootstrapped

EROI = 1030 ~ electric

Thermodynamics of Thin Film PV

• EROI: 6 months

• Life: 20 years

EROI = 40120 ~electric

Thermodynamics of Wind

• EROI: 3 months

• Life: 20 years

EROI = 80240 ~ electric

Back to State & Quality (grade) …How does ERoEI analysis embrace these factors?• Time / sustainability

• oil depletion: Inevitable degradation of quality.• solar endurance: “Low” quality starts to make sense.

• Land use / ecological footprint• Uranium tailings: Most dense becomes the most diffuse. • Open pit coal mines: Density depends on measuring stick.• It’s even an issue with Solar: PV on roofs ≠ PV in deserts.

•Security / Energy drain on future generations• Nuclear Power M.A.D.: ERoEI goes astronomically negative.• Oil Wars: How much energy does it take to protect energy?• Solar: Power satellites are weapons, not energy technology.

Energy States: Solid, Liquid, G a s, Field

Taking it one step further …

• You may think I’m pushing solar?

• Yes and no. The main point is …

• Prevailing sentiments cannot blind us from seeing the solutions with the best ERoEI…

• And we cannot be fixated on direct substitution of oil with liquid fuels, especially given the historic role of oil and the myriad advantages of electric transport.

Fuels (solid/liquid/gas) will still have a place…

www.ecotopia.com/ST

• ERoEI of biofuels may be too low for urban transport…

(not to mention smog, congestion, hazard)

• Fuels will remain essential for:

• Airplanes

• Ships at sea -- with wind power augmentation (KiteTugs)

• Agriculture

ERoEI(field) >> ERoEI(solid, liquid, gas)

The conclusions are simple:

• We are not doing enough fast enough. • To spend our depleting energy capital

resources effectively, we must first understand the Thermodynamics (ERoEI) of the alternatives.

• Then we must act quickly with resolve.

Economics or Thermodynamics: Which will it be?

The Next New Energy Thing Ron Swenson August 9, 2007 .

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Transcript of The Next New Energy Thing Ron Swenson August 9, 2007 .