The Next Intifada

Palestinian Strategy As Outlined in the PA Media

Presentation by Middle East Newsline, Montreal, Canada. www.menewsline.com

Abbas Urged to Renew Uprising

• Pressure from Fatah• Pressure from Hamas• Pressure from Israel and U.S.

Pressure from Fatah

• Poor Showing in Municipal Elections• Fear of Loss in PLC Elections• Preparing for Power Struggle

Pressure from Hamas

• Emboldened by Election Results• Building a State Within a State• Preparing to Take Over Gaza after PLC

Elections

Pressure from Israel, U.S.

• Demand for PA Security Reform• Demand for Dismantling of Insurgency Groups• Demand for Democracy, Fiscal Transparency

Fear of Israeli Withdrawal

• PA Can’t Impose Order on Gaza• Israel Could Seal Up Gaza• U.S. Would Support W. Bank Settlement Blocs

Bush Loses Credibility

• President Seen as Close to Sharon• Concern Over Pro-Democracy Drive• Unable to Implement PA Security Reforms

Scenarios of Bush-Abbas Meeting

• Bush Will Counsel Patience• President Will Push for PA Security Reform• Congress Will Block U.S. Aid Package

Uprising As Strategy

• Insurgency Would Strengthen PA Position• Change U.S. Support for Israel• Wear Down Sharon’s Resolve

Options for Uprising

• Mass Violence Against Israeli Troops• Attacks on Jewish Settlements• Provoke Massive Israeli Military Response

Immediate Results of Uprising

• Delay PLC Elections and Fatah Loss• Strengthen Abbas and PA• Win International Support for Palestinians

Conclusion

• Abbas Likely to Delay Uprising• Fatah, Hamas Prepare for Renewal of War• Gaza Strip to Serve as Launching Pad

Questions?

Steve Rodan

• editor@menewsline.com

http://menewsline.com

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