The next forty years icrisat 40th anniversary robert [compatibility mode]
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Transcript of The next forty years icrisat 40th anniversary robert [compatibility mode]
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THE NEXT FORTY YEARS: the challenge of climate change
Robert ZougmoréRegional Program Leader
CCAFS West Africa
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Outline
• Challenges due to climate change
• The CGIAR research program: CCAFS
• Climate Smart Agriculture: the solution
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Challenge 1:
Food security
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Greater demand for food due
to population & income growth
In order to meet global demands,
we will need
60-70% food
by 2050.
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The yield gap and its’ limitations
Potential yield
(Experimentation)
Actual yield
Yield gap
Biophysical limitations- Soil fertility- Water- Germplasm-etc
Which inputs are lacking?
Socio economic and policy limitations- Knowledge
- Credit Availability- Input/output Market access- Policy, e.t.c
Why inputs are not used?
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“Unchecked climate change will result in a
20% increase in malnourished children by 2050,” relative to the full mitigation scenario.
-Gerald Nelson, IFPRI/CCAFS
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Challenge 2: Adaptation to CC
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Signs of Hope:Signs of Hope:Signs of Hope:Signs of Hope:
Rehabilitation, Prevention Rehabilitation, Prevention Rehabilitation, Prevention Rehabilitation, Prevention
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For 650,000 years, CO2 has never
been above this line, …..until now
now
400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0
Years before today
CO
2 p
art
s p
er
mill
ion
440
400
360
320
280
240
200
160
NASA
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The concentration of
GHGs is rising
Long-term implications
for the climate and for
crop suitability
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IPCC PROJECTIONS FOR AFRICA
• CO2 enrichment
• Temperature increase of 1.5 to 4 ⁰C in this century
• Fewer colder days and nights
• Frequent hot days and nights
• Arid areas will become drier and humid areas wetter
• Increase in droughts and floods
• Sea level rise
• High levels of desertification and soil salinization in
some countries
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Crop suitability will fall in many areas
Andrew Jarvis, CIAT/CCAFS
50 crops, to 2050-95 to -31
-30 to -11
-10 to -1
0
1 to 29
30 to 47
48 to 98
% change
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To 2090, taking 18
climate models
Four degree world
Thornton et al. (2010) ILRI/CCAFS
>20% loss
5-20% loss
No change
5-20% gain
>20% gain
Length of growing
period (%)
Length of growing season is
likely to decline..
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• Greater frequency of extreme events• More severe extreme events
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% p
rice incre
ase 2
010-2
050
Climate change will add greatly to price increases…
Nelson et al., 2010 IFPRI/CCAFS
Maize Rice Wheat
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Challenge 3: Reducing the agricultural footprint
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IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE
IMPACTS
CROPS
SEA LEVEL RISE
PEST & DISEASES
LIVESTOCK
BIODIVERSITYNATURAL
RESOURCES
FISHERIES
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CCAFS: working in partnershipRegional organizations
(e.g. CORAF, FARA, ASARECA)
Continental initiatives (e.g.
CAADP)
Meteorological, development,
capacity organizations
(e.g. AGRHYMET, WMO,START)
National research & extension
State sectoral institutions
NGOs, Private sector, FOs
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Where is the research being done? >> At our 15 CG centers and ~70 regional offices
The CGIAR Research Centers
Lead center - CIAT
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1.Identify and develop pro-poor adaptation and mitigation practices, technologies and policies for agriculture and food
systems.
2.Support the inclusion of agricultural issues in climate change policies, and of
climate issues in agricultural policies, at all levels.
CCAFS objectives
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Place-based field work
Indo-GangeticPlains:
There is risk of heat stress, melting glaciers, and sea level rise; the intensity and probability of extreme events will likely increase.
Regional Leader:
Pramod Aggarwal
East Africa:Climate change will likely intensify surface and groundwater stress.
Regional Program Leader
:
James Kinyangi
West Africa:Extreme rainfall variability impedes precipitation predictions, but the Sahel will likely experience shorter growing periods.
Regional Program Leader:
Robert Zougmoré
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A “new” climate
smart agriculture
is needed
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To make climate-smart agriculture a reality:
1.Tools to make
investment choices
2.Incentives to improve
uptake
3.Research to reduce
GHG emissions and
increase productivity
under climate change
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TPE
analysisFuture
systems
Knowledg
e &
intuition
Ideotype
concept
Gene/allel
ediscovery
Intelligent phenotyping designs
Marker
developmt
.
Modeling
Marker validation,Integration
,G x E x M
Molecular
breeding
Intelligent choice of
populations
Creative thinking & wild bets Forcing by target environment
CHANGE
Con-ventionalbreedingApplication
Methodology
Search
Function, regulation,phénotype
Strategic choices
DiversityPanels
BiparentalPopsCCAFS (CRP7)
activity 1.2:Breeding strategies
& ideotypes for 2030 horizon
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Farmers efforts need to be supported by
policies, incentives and knowledge
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VISION• Agriculture becomes the
centre-piece of UNFCCC COP
• Empower farmers and institutions through regional knowledge networks (“From satellite to cell phone”)
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1. Climate change has arrived
2. We need planned, accelerated and transformative adaptation
3. There are some emerging opportunities
5. A major push is needed on climate risk management
4. A “new” climate-smart agriculture is needed
6.Farmers efforts need to be supported by policies, incentives and knowledge
Thank you