Electricity and the Human Prospect

The New International Population Order

Joseph ChamiePopulation Division, DESA

United Nations

Stanford UniversityPalo Alto, California8-9 December 2004

What is the message?F U T U R E D K W O R L D E L E C T R I C I T Y H U M A N W O M E N O S P O P U L A T C O S T E N V I R O N G R O W O P T I M A O R D E C L I N D E A T H F Q U I T P I P E N S I O N H E A L T H X U N T E C H S T A T S P O L I C Y P R O S P E C T D A R K

“It takes a strong man to make a tender chicken.”

“It takes an aroused man to make a chicken affectionate.”

“It won’t leak in your pocket and embarrass you.”

“It won’t leak in your pocket and make you pregnant.”

What is the message?

Where are we headed?

World Population in 20th Century

1. Population nearly quadrupled2. Highest population growth rate3. Largest annual population increase4. Shortest doubling time for population5. Shortest time to add 1 billion persons

…/

World Population in 20th Century

6. Revolutionary declines in mortality7. Unprecedented declines in fertility8. Significant international migration9. Increased urbanization 10. Emergence of mega-cities

What kind of demographic future will the new century

bring?

World Population by Variant, 1950-2050

02468

1012

1950

1970

1990

2010

2030

2050

Year

Popu

latio

n (b

illio

ns) High

Medium

Low

Annual World Population Increase, 1950-2050

8777

29

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.01 9

5 01 9

5 51 9

6 01 9

6 51 9

7 01 9

7 51 9

8 01 9

8 51 9

9 01 9

9 52 0

0 02 0

0 52 0

1 02 0

1 52 0

2 02 0

2 52 0

3 02 0

3 52 0

4 02 0

4 5

Year

Incr

ease

(mill

ions

)

Population of Developed and Developing Regions: 1950, 2000 and 2050

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1950 2000 2050

Year

Popu

latio

n (b

illion

s)

Developed

Developing

Top Ten Contributers to Population Growth, 2000

India21%

China12%

Pakistan5%

Nigeria4%Bangladesh

4%Indonesia3%

U.S.A.3%

Brazil3%

Congo2%

Ethiopia2%

Other countries41%

Population of Least Developed Countries by Variant, 1950-2050

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

Pop

ulat

ion

(milli

ons)

High

Medium

Low

Population of Nigeria by Variant,1950-2050

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

Pop

ulat

ion

(milli

ons)

High

Medium

Low

Population of Pakistan by Variant,1950-2050

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year

Popu

latio

n (m

illion

s)

High

Medium

Low

Population of South Africa by Variant, 1950-2050

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

Pop

ulat

ion

(milli

ons)

High

Medium

Low

Population of Italy by Variant, 1950-2050

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year

Pop

ulat

ion

(milli

ons)

High

Medium

Low

Population of Japan by Variant,1950-2050

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year

Pop

ulat

ion

(milli

ons)

High

Medium

Low

Population of Canada by Variant, 1950-2050

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year

Pop

ulat

ion

(milli

ons)

High

Medium

Low

Zero Mig.

Population of USA by Variant, 1950-2050

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year

Pop

ulat

ion

(milli

ons)

High

Medium

Low

Zero mig.

Population of Europe and Africa:1950, 2000, 2050

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1950 2000 2050Year

Popu

latio

n (m

illio

ns) .

.

EuropeAfrica

Population of Russia and Pakistan: 1950, 2000, 2050

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1950 2000 2050Year

Popu

latio

n (m

illions

)

RussiaPakistan

Percent 65 Years or Older for World and Italy:

1950, 2000 and 2050

57

16

8

18

34

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1950 2000 2050Year

Perc

ent 6

5 ye

ars

or o

lder

..

WorldItaly

Potential Support RatiosNation 2000China 10.0France 4.1Germany 4.2Italy 3.7Canada 5.4USA 5.4

20502.72.11.81.52.42.7

Age in 2050 to Maintain Potential Support RatiosNationChinaFranceGermanyItalyCanadaUSA

Age78.774.076.276.575.273.1

By 2050:1. Larger population2. Slower growth3. Nearly all growth in

developing regions4. Lower fertility5. Many nations smaller

By 2050:6. Lower mortality &

longer life*7. HIV/AIDS worsens 8. Older population9. More urbanized10.Increased migration

What should be done?

DenialDelayDo nothing

Embrace future challenges!

Bold visionStrong and enlightened leadership

Resources

What else?

Thank you!