THE NEW GEOPOLITICS OF NATURAL GAS IN RUSSIA & EURASIA · THE NEW GEOPOLITICS OF NATURAL GAS IN...
17
DR. AGNIA GRIGAS Argonne National Lab Atlantic Council Washington DC October 24, 2018 THE NEW GEOPOLITICS OF NATURAL GAS IN RUSSIA & EURASIA
Transcript of THE NEW GEOPOLITICS OF NATURAL GAS IN RUSSIA & EURASIA · THE NEW GEOPOLITICS OF NATURAL GAS IN...
DR. AGNIA GRIGASArgonne National Lab
Atlantic CouncilWashington DC
October 24, 2018
THE NEW GEOPOLITICS OF NATURAL GAS IN RUSSIA & EURASIA
The New Geopolitics of Natural Gas
The Transformation of Natural Gas Markets
Transformed Relations between Gas Importing &
Exporting States
2
Markets Driving Change
❑ The Transformation of the Natural Gas Market
◼Growing LNG Trade
◼ Shale Boom
◼Buildup of Inter-connective Gas Infrastructure
◼Climate Change Concerns
3
US: The New Energy Superpower
◼US largest natural gas producer since 2011
◼US emerges as an LNG exporter in 2016
◼US rising as 3rd leading LNG exporter by 2020
◼ Energy security potential for its energy poor allies
4
US: LNG exporter
5
Operating Terminals:
◼Kenai, Alaska (1969)
◼ Cheniere, Louisiana (2016)
◼Dominion Cove Point, Maryland (2018)
The Business of Gas
US changing gas trade disproportionately to its role as a supplier ◼Short & spot trade vs. long term contracts◼Hub-based pricing vs. oil-linked gas pricing◼Growth of LNG vs. piped gas◼No destination clauses
… A Buyers Market?
6
Russian Natural Gas: Export of Commodity, Influence, Alliances, or Corruption?
◼Cutting transit states (2000s)
◼Gas halts (2006, 2009, 2014)
◼Political pricing
◼Interest groups
◼Exporting corruption
7
Friendships & Gas Deals
8
Declining Russian Energy Power?
◼Russia monopolist position & political leverage in Europe challenged?
◼Ambitious LNG plans
◼ New pipelines9
Russia’s Fight for European Markets
◼Nord Stream II (Germany)
◼Against EU energy security policy
◼Concentration of supplies via a single route
◼Export of corruption10
Competition in Southeast Europe: Turk Stream
11
Energy Diversification in Europe
◼Success cases:
◼Lithuania,
◼Poland,
◼Croatia?
12
Developing Asia: New Centers of Demand
◼ China will leverage its power of gas demand
◼ Power of Siberia by Dec 2019 (30 yrs, 38 bcm)
◼ Power of Altai tabled
13
India’s Demand & Challenges
◼ Gail renegotiates LNG contract with Gazprom
◼ Russia to build pipeline from Iran to India
◼ TAPI pipeline (late 2019) (33 BCM)
14
The New Geopolitics of Natural Gas
◼ US new commercial interests & US long-term positions on EU’s diversification are consistent!
◼ Trade Wars?
15
Hybrid Warfare in Integrated Energy Markets?
◼Ports, sea routes, terminals (not just pipeline infrastructure) need to be assessed
◼Cybersecurity: cybercrime, malfunctions, hostile foreign actors
◼Role of propaganda in energy policy
◼Foreign-state supported lobbies and interest groups
◼Influence on local, state, regional and institutional decision-making
16
![GEOPOLITICS OF GAS[INDEX] · 4 The Geopolitics of Gas: Common Pr oblems, Disparate Strategies Until the 1990s, natural gas was by and large perceived as a by-product of oil fields,](https://static.fdocuments.in/doc/165x107/5edcf51ead6a402d6667dcfb/geopolitics-of-gasindex-4-the-geopolitics-of-gas-common-pr-oblems-disparate.jpg)
