The New Era of Mexico-U.S. Migration: The Post 2006 Experience and the Collapse of Undocumented...

The New Era of Mexico-U.S. Migration: The Post 2006 Experience and the Collapse of Undocumented Migration

René Zenteno, UTSARoberto Suro, USC

Motivation

• Almost ten years ago Mexico-U.S. migration entered a new era

• Signs of distress were already present in 2006:• Home construction industry began to collapse• First year with a decline in border apprehensions

• By the time the U.S. economy hit bottom, net migration appeared to have hit the zero point

• The work of understanding the causes let alone the effects has just begun

What we know

In demographic terms, we are about to close a decade characterized by:

• Net migration around zero (Passel, et al. 2012; Gonzalez-Barrera, 2015)

• Undocumented migration flows and border apprehensions at historical low levels (Suro & Zenteno, 2012) and migrants returning to Mexico in larger numbers than ever (Gonzalez-Barrera, 2015)

• Documented migration becoming more significant (Massey, 2014)

• End of circularity (Massey, 2012; Massey, Durand & Pren, 2016)

• Mexican immigrant population has remained stable around 11.7 million, but Mexico is no longer the top origin country among most recent immigrants (MPI, 2016)

• Mexican immigrants arriving recently are older and with higher levels of education and English proficiency (Saenz, 2015).

• Unprecedented enforcement efforts at all levels of government (MPI, 2013; Massey, 2014, 2016; Amuedo-Dorantes & Pozo, 2014)

What is driving the current conditions of Mexico-U.S. migration?

1. Decline has been mainly driven by the Great recession and weakened job opportunities in the United States

2. Improving Mexican economy

3. Mexican demographics: decline in Mexico’s birth rates

4. Tougher border and interior enforcement

Mechanisms that could produce increased Mexican migration again in response to heightened demand in the U.S. labor market and social networks are largely intact

Enforcement and Migration

• Increases in border enforcement precede the decline in migration (Villarreal, 2014)

• Border enforcement reduces undocumented immigration (Espenshade, 1994) and the stock of unauthorized immigrants (Angelucci, 2012)

• Border enforcement efforts had not reduced the initiation of undocumented migration (Massey et. al, 2016) or the intention of Mexican deportees to remigrate (Amuedo-Dorantes & Pozo, 2014)

• Interior enforcement’s effects on reducing share of Hispanic noncitizen population in Arizona (Amuedo-Dorantes & Lozano, 2015) and border enforcement important determinant of the spatial distribution of Mexican immigrants in the United States (Bohn & Pugatch, 2015)

Today’s Analysis

• Present key trends in the ongoing and evolving movement of people between Mexico and the United States, in particular the most recent relapse of undocumented migration using unpublished data from the Border Survey of Mexican Migration (EMIF).

• Evaluate the impact of border enforcement and deportation experience on discouraging border crossing reentry among recent Mexican deportees.

• The analysis is conducted by pooling EMIF’s data from 2005 to 2014.

• Our analytical strategy is to compare the intentions to return to the U.S. of most recent deportees (2012-2014) with those who were deported before the economic recession (2005-2006) and during the onset of net migration zero (2007-2011)

• The analysis includes interaction terms between migration deportation experience and period to assess change over time

Data

Border Survey of Mexican Migration (EMIF)

• Oldest continuous research program tracking original data on the number of people crossing the U.S.-Mexico border legally or illegally

• Conducted in selected border-crossing points and at airports in the interior of Mexico by El Colegio de la Frontera Norte

• Conducted in Mexico by Mexican interviewers, the survey asks northbound respondents whether they are crossing into the United States legally or not. EMIF also includes a sample of deportees.

• EMIF’s sampling design allows flows to be tracked by calendar quarters. Annual comparisons for the same quarter allow analyses that account for seasonal variations in the flow.

Relapse of Northbound Flows

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50,000

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FIGURE 1. NORTHBOUND MEXICAN UNAUTHORIZED FLOWS TO THE UNITED STATES, 2003-2015

(smoothed data to show secultar trend)

Smoothed FlowsFlows

Year-QuarterSource: Border Survey of Mexican Migration (EMIF)

The smoother applied using Stata was (1/4)*[x(t-2) + x(t-1) + 1*x(t) + x(t+1)]; x(t)= flow

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FIGURE 3. TOTAL NORTHBOUND MEXICAN FLOWS TO THE UNITED STATES AND SHARE OF UNAUTHORIZED MIGRATION, 2006-2015

(smoothed data to show secultar trend) % Unauthorized Northbound Smoothed Flows

Year QuarterSource: Border Survey of Mexican Migration (EMIF)

The smoother applied using Stata was (1/4)*[x(t-2) + x(t-1) + 1*x(t) + x(t+1)]; x(t)= flow

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201410,000,000.0

10,500,000.0

11,000,000.0

11,500,000.0

12,000,000.0

12,500,000.0

MEXICAN BORN POPULATION LIVING IN THE U.S.Measured by the American Community Survey, 2006 to 2014

SOURCE: American Community Survey.Estimation ACS

95% Confidence Interval

Enforcement

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 -

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

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-35%

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0%

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973,819

800,634

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280,580 262,341 265,409 226,771

186,017

FIGURE 4: BORDER PATROL APPREHENSIONS OF MEXICAN ALIENS IN THE SOUTHWEST BORDER AND ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN THE NUMBER OF APPREHENSIONS

MEASURED ON ANNUAL BASIS, FY 2006-2015

% Change Apprehensions

Year

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enta

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Source: U.S. Border Patrol Statistics at https://www.cbp.gov/sites/default/files/documents

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

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FIGURE 5: STAFF AND BUDGET BORDER PATROL AND APPREHENSIONS OF MEX-ICAN MIGRANTS. SOUTHWEST SECTOR. FY 2000-2015

Apprehensions Budget Staff

Budg

et a

nd A

ppre

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Staff

Source: U.S. Border Patrol Statistics at https://www.cbp.gov/sites/default/files/documents

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 -

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FIGURE 6: TOTAL ICE REMOVALS, FY 2006-2015

Fiscal Year

Rem

oval

s

Source: U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement Statistics at https://www.ice.gov/sites/default/files/documents

At least 2.4 million of removals in 2006-2015 were Mexicans

Data and Analytical Strategy

• EMIF data has limitations to estimate the effect of enforcement on the net flow of migrants. However, it allows to estimate intention to re-enter the U.S. among deportees.

• Unlike the overall Mexican population, deportees’ intentions to re-enter the U.S. is not stemming from Mexican demographics.

• The analysis is conducted pooling EMIF’s data from 2005-2014 waves.

• Total sample of 68,394 deportations

• Our findings should be placed within the context of the unprecedented number of deportations by the current administration and the post-recession era. We control this self-selection by including period effects.

• Endogeneity of border enforcement and undocumented migration is less likely given trends in Mexican flows and political climate.

Model

• Binary logistic models

• Dependent variable: Intention to return to the U.S. within the next 7 days

• The models include as predictors migration and deportation experience, border enforcement, and dummy variables indexing period effects: 2005-2006, 2007-2011, and 2012-2014

• Interaction terms capture changes in migration and deportation experience over time

• Separate models predicting likelihood of returning to the U.S.:• Based model including all control variables• Interaction between migration and deportation variables

and period• Stratified models by period

Model

• Use of demographic and socioeconomic data, information about migration and deportation experience, and border enforcement.

Demographic: gender, age, marital status

Socioeconomic: educational attainment

Migration experience: previous migrations with or without previous deportations, risks faced during last migration, time in the U.S.

Deportation experience: deported with family, place of detention, physical and verbal aggressions during process

Border enforcement: Enacted Border Patrol Program Budget

Time-Period

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Figure 7: SHARE OF REPATRIATED MEXICANS STATING AN INTENT TO RETURN TO THE UNITED STATES

Measured on a Quarterly Basis, 2006-2015

Year-Quarter

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Source: Border Survey of Mexican Migration (EMIF)

Intention to return to the US in the next 7 days

Period (reference: 2005-2006)2007-2011 0.157 *** -0.270 **2012-2014 -1.123 *** -2.048 ***

Significance levels: '*' p<=0.1, '**' p<=0.01 y '***' p<=0.001

Parameter Estimates from Logistic Models for the Intention to Return to U.S. in the Following 7 Days.

Variable Model with interactions1Main effect

1 Model includes period interactions with migration and deportation characteristics

Results include controls for demographic, socioeconomic, migration, deportation and border enforcement characteristics.

Source: Calculations based on the EMIF-N 2005-2014.


Female -0.323 *** -0.330 *** -0.247 *** -0.421 *** -0.140 *Age (reference: 15-24)

25-34 0.013 0.008 -0.077 0.060 * -0.04635-44 0.009 0.003 -0.139 0.018 0.13345-54 -0.117 * -0.126 ** -0.246 * -0.094 -0.12755-64 0.117 0.096 -0.369 0.161 0.12765-+ -0.343 -0.358 -3.241 ** -0.557 1.590 **

Marital status (ref: never married)Married 0.071 * 0.069 * 0.234 *** -0.017 0.130 *Once married 0.069 0.073 0.364 ** 0.022 -0.102

Significance levels: '*' p<=0.1, '**' p<=0.01 y '***' p<=0.001


2005-2006 2007-2011 2012-2014Model with

interactions1Base model

Source: Calculations based on the EMIF-N 2005-2014.Results include controls for demographic, socioeconomic, migration, deportation and border enforcement characteristics.


Variable Stratified models


Education (ref: less than high school)Some high school 0.198 *** 0.193 *** 0.248 *** 0.113 *** 0.366 ***More than high school 0.152 ** 0.165 ** 0.096 0.169 * 0.267 *

Time in the US (ref: < 24 hours)1 day — Less than 1 week 0.132 *** 0.100 *** 0.538 *** 0.243 *** -0.499 ***1 week — Less than a month -1.281 *** -1.292 *** -0.861 *** -1.531 *** -1.262 ***1 month — Less than 6 months -1.417 *** -1.436 *** -0.920 *** -1.669 *** -1.499 ***6 months — Less than 1 year -1.130 *** -1.125 *** -0.503 *** -1.290 *** -1.452 ***1 year or more -0.810 *** -0.823 *** -0.661 ** -0.904 *** -0.811 ***

BPBudget (Dollars in Millions) -0.0009 *** -0.0008 *** 0.0002 ** -0.0010 *** 0.0006Significance levels: '*' p<=0.1, '**' p<=0.01 y '***' p<=0.001



Variable Stratified models2005-2006 2007-2011 2012-2014

Source: Calculations based on the EMIF-N 2005-2014.Results include controls for demographic, socioeconomic, migration, deportation and border enforcement characteristics.

Model with interactions1Base model


Migration experience (ref: no)Yes, no previous deportations 0.091 * -0.027 0.075 0.540 ***Yes, with previous deportations -0.160 *** -0.450 *** 0.191 ** 0.762 ***

Faced risk during migration (ref: no) 0.004 -0.119 * 0.019 0.460 ***Deported with family (ref: no) 0.009 0.005 0.097 -0.509 ***Place of detention (ref: desert/other place)

Workplace -0.297 *** -0.541 *** 0.212 0.745 ***Home or street -0.431 *** -0.808 *** 0.349 *** 0.741 ***Crossing the border -0.438 *** -1.044 ** 0.652 *** 0.915 ***

Physical aggression during detention (ref: no) 0.240 *** 0.500 *** -0.258 -0.531 **Verbal aggression during detention (ref: no) -0.026 0.317 *** -0.454 *** -0.281 *Significance levels: '*' p<=0.1, '**' p<=0.01 y '***' p<=0.001

Results include controls for demographic, socioeconomic, migration, deportation and border enforcement characteristics.

Models with interactionsMain

effectsInteractions

(ref:2005-2006)

Source: Calculations based on the EMIF-N 2005-2014.

Base model

2007-2011 2012-2014


Variable

Conclusions

• Mexico is not sending its people anymore. After a period of relative improvement in 2012 and 2013, northbound flows suffered a relapsed in 2014 and 2015.

• For Mexican immigrants, the United States is starting to look like a less inviting place for current migrants (deportees), as intentions to border crossing reentry have experienced a significant decline in recent years, migration experience became crucial to attempt a new unauthorized crossing, and physical and verbal abuse deterred reentry.

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