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Photovoltaic Power Generation Technology Research Association

President

Dr.Yukinori Kuwano

Natural Energy Resources for Human Kind

GIES March 13 2008

The Need for Clean EnergyーThe Photovoltaic Power Generation Era is Comingー

The Need for Clean EnergyーThe Photovoltaic Power Generation Era is Comingー

1

1. Environmental issues and energy problems2. Solar Energy3. Progress of solar cells4. PV has the possibility to save our future

GENESIS project– the possibility of a final energy solution-

ContentsContents

2

Sun

CO2NOxSOx

Lake

Acid rain:Death of marine life formsDestruction of plant life

Melting of polar ice caps:Average temperature Increases by 3℃

Atmospheric warming/Pollution:Unnatural ecosystems Abnormal weatherDesertification

Earth

Acid rain

GreenhouseEffect

NOx SOx CO2Gas flow

Fluorocarbon

Degradation of the Global EnvironmentDegradation of the Global Environment

3Source: IPCC 2nd report （1996）

YearCO

2 em

issi

on （

1015

g-C

/yea

r）

0 1870 1910 1950 19901890 1930 1970

1234567

Developing CountriesDeveloping Countries

Eastern EuropeEastern Europe

OECDOECD

World CO2 EmissionsWorld CO2 EmissionsWorld CO2 Emissions

4

World Population Growth Trend

Source：Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Statistics Bureau

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

World p

opula

tion (m

illio

n)

6,0006,0006,000

Over 9,000Over 9,000Over 9,000

World Population Growth TrendWorld Population Growth Trend

5

155y.155y.

85y.85y.67y.67y.1.80×1014m3

1.80×1014m3

0.91×1012t0.91

×1012t

4.744.74××101066tt

45年41y.41y.

1.20×1012barrels1.20×1012barrels

Oil Natural gas Coal Uranium

Possible periodsof mining (years)Possible periodsof mining (years)

British Petroleum Statistical Review of World Energy 2006，URANIUM2005

Reserves of Various Energy SourcesReserves of Various Energy Sources

6

History of Energy Consumption by Humankind

Industrial Revolution

Discoveryof fire

Used fireand animal

Firewood, water wheels,

WindmillsCoal Petro-

leum～1 million ～10 thousands～500 ～200 ～40

B.C.～1 million

A.D.1700

A.D.2000

A.D.2100

Wor

ld e

nerg

y co

nsum

ptio

n(P

etro

leum

equ

ival

ent :

1 m

illio

n b/

d)

Petroleum

Atomic Power

B.C.1000

A.D.1000

EnergyGap

EnergyGap

Naturalgas

Coal

Use of tools and fireUse of animals for conveyance

Watt's steamengine

Gasoline engines,thermal power stations,and the start of drillingfor oil

TV, Transistor,atomic power stations

IC, LSI SolarEnergy

Solar energy

Firewood,etc.

250

200

150

100

50

0

History of Energy Consumption by Humankind

History of Energy Consumption by Humankind

7

Uses of Solar Energy

SUN• Limitless• Clean• Everywhere

• Limitless• Clean• Everywhere

Solar cellSolar cell

Electrical use

Electricity

Huge energy!!

-+p n

V

12:30

The amount of solar energy that reaches the earth in an hour is enough to supply our energy needs for a year

8

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

1954 Single crystalline silicon solar cell（Pearson）19731973 Oil crisisOil crisis1974 National project started in U.S., E.C and Japan etc (ex. Sunshine Project)19751975 PP//nn control of amorphous Si (Spear)control of amorphous Si (Spear)19761976 PP--ii--nn solar cell solar cell with initial efficiency of 2.4%with initial efficiency of 2.4% ((Carlson and Carlson and WronskiWronski))19801980 Consumer electronics powered by aConsumer electronics powered by a--Si solar cell (calculator etc)Si solar cell (calculator etc)1988 Revelation of environmental degradation19891989 GENESIS projectGENESIS project (PVSEC(PVSEC--4, Sydney)4, Sydney)19921992 Practical reverse-flow solar power generation system

((KuwanoKuwano’’ss solar power station)solar power station)1994 Basic guideline for new energy introduction19961996 SILK ROAD GENESIS (SRG) PlanSILK ROAD GENESIS (SRG) Plan2004 Roadmap Toward 2030 (PV2030)2005 Annual solar cell production exceed 1GW (equal to a nuclear power plant)2007 Present

Future Prospect Future Prospect for Solar Cellfor Solar Cell

(1) T

he d

awn

of

solar

pow

er

gene

ratio

n

(2)

Adva

nce t

o su

pply

elec

tric

powe

r

(3) S

prea

d of

so

lar p

ower

ge

nera

tion

on a

glob

al sc

ale

-30 y

ears

of

nex

t st

age-

History of Solar CellHistory of Solar Cell

9

Single crystalSilicon

Poly-crystalsilicon

AmorphousSilicon

Various Types of Solar Cell ModuleVarious Types of Solar Cell Module

10

(b)Poly-

crystal

(c)Amorphous

silicon

(a)Singlecrystal

～300℃RFPlasma

Vacuumnip T.C.O.Glass

PH3 B2H6 SiH4

Thermalenergy

Liquid Si～1500℃

～1500℃

Cutting Wafer

p-n junctionforming～900℃

Thermalenergy

Crystallization

Comparison of fabrication methods of for Various solar cells

Comparison of fabrication methods of for Various solar cells

11Year

c-Si

poly-Si

a-Si

1960 1980 2000 20200

10

20

30C

onve

rsio

n ef

ficie

ncy

(％)

Progress in Conversion Efficiency of Solar CellsProgress in Conversion Efficiency of Solar Cells

12提供：（株）資源総合システム

Progress in Global Production VolumeProgress in Global Production Volume

The world PV industry became 1 Trillion yen scale

2006 World2.5GW

Japan927.5

Others714.0

E.U.678.3

U.S.201.6

13

Year1975 80 85 90 95 2000 20100

2,0004,0006,0008,000

Mod

ule

cost

(Yen

/W) Cost target of NEDO Project

100 Yen/W

30,000 Yen/W

Actual and Target Cost of Solar CellsActual and Target Cost of Solar Cells

14

Shipped in 1980

Electric Calculator and Wristwatch (the First Products)

Electric Calculator and Wristwatch (the First Products)

15

Construct in 1992

The First Practical Use of Reverse-flow PV System in a Japanese House

The First Practical Use of Reverse-flow PV System in a Japanese House

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（One an average of 3.85kW in Gunma Pf.）

Total 2,130kW of the PV in the House Group, 553 houses

Total 2,130kW of the PV in the House Group, 553 houses

17From：PHOTON International

Rancho Rancho SecoSeco ((3.9MW3.9MW) California,US) California,USFloriadeFloriade Haarlemmermeer (Haarlemmermeer (2.3MW2.3MW))Haarlemmermeer,NetherlandsHaarlemmermeer,Netherlands

GeiseltalseeGeiseltalsee Solar Park (Solar Park (4MW4MW) ) Braunsbedra,GermanyBraunsbedra,Germany SerreSerre ((3.3MW3.3MW) ) Serre,ItalySerre,Italy

Worldwide Large Scale PV PlantsWorldwide Large Scale PV Plants

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EPT=E0/EgE0： Energy to need to produce PV

Eg： Energy that PV generates

electricity for one year

EPT（ Energy Payback Time）EPT（ Energy Payback Time）

1) a-Si solar cells

≒1 year

2) Crystalline Si solar cells

≒1.5-2 years

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Annual electrical power generated from 3kW PV system

35cans of oil(18l/can)

3kW PV System Saves About 630 l/year of Oil3kW PV System Saves About 630 l/year of Oil3kW PV System Can Reduce1.7t-CO2 of CO2 in One Year

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Capabiliy：240 billion kWh

Total demand （2006）:890 billon kWh30% of electricity in Japan30% of electricity in Japancould be supplied by PVcould be supplied by PV

240GW in total

【Conditions】 Electric energy PV4/5 of houses (21 million) with PV of 4kWp ･･･ 67billion kWh 67GW4/5 of apartment (0.44 million) with PV of 20kWp ･･･ 7 billion kWh 7GW4/5 of factory (420 thousand) with PV of 200kWp ･･･ 67 billion kWh 67GWOther public building ･･･ 45 billion kWh 45GW

Very large PV ･･･ 50 billion kWh 50GW

PV System as Basic Energy SupplierPV System as Basic Energy Supplier

21Could reduce 20% of the current crude oil useCould reduce 20% of the current crude oil use

Possible amount of PV power generation：2.4 x1010 kWh/YearPossible amount of PV power generationPossible amount of PV power generation：：2.4 x102.4 x101010 kWh/YearkWh/Year

CO2Reduction：1.3x108 t-CO2Equivalent Oil：5x107 kl

CO2Reduction：1.3x108 t-CO2Equivalent Oil：5x107 kl

10% of Japanese CO2 emission

if PV systems were installed in the roof of the Japanese privatehouse, the roof of the building and the unused land,

Reduction of CO2 by Photovoltaic Power Generation

Reduction of CO2 by Photovoltaic Power Generation

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560,000１ＧＷ

560１ＭＷ

0.56 １ＫＷ

Quantity of Reductionof CO2 (Unit ton)

Scale of the PV System

Dependence of the CO2 Ｒeductionby the Scale of the ＰＶ

Dependence of the CO2 Ｒeductionby the Scale of the ＰＶ

（in one year）

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1．Results of 50 years of PV developmenta. Efficiency increases: 4 to10 times （Silicon）b. Cost reduction : 1/100c. Practicability of reverse-flow PV system

was confirmed

d. Module has more than 20 years of reliabilitye. PV is effective for CO2 reduction

2．Future Challengea. Additional cost reduction needed: 1/2 to1/4b. Reliability : from 20 Years to 50 - 100 Yearsc. New Deal for the spread of PV

‘What are the Challenges’ for PV‘What are the Challenges’ for PV

24Source：NEDO”PV Roadmap Toward 2030”（PV2030）」

2002 2007 2010 2020 2030 （Year）

50Yen/kWh

30Yen/kWh

Pow

er

Genera

tion C

ost

Bulk Si &Thin-Film Si/Compound

<<Cell Technology>>Cost Reduction by Technology

Generation Change

New Material/ Structure

23 Yen/kWh

14 Yen/kWh

Equivalent to Business Use

7 Yen/kWhEquivalent toIndustrial Use

Equivalent to Residential

Use

PV Roadmap Toward 2030 (PV2030)PV Roadmap Toward 2030 (PV2030)

25Solar Cells

GGlobal EEnergy NNetwork EEquipped with SSolar Cells and IInternational SSuperconductor Grids

GENESISGENESIS

IInternational SSuperconductor Grids

Proposed in 1989

26

1,03015352050

1,850151112100

72910112000

System area

(km square)

Systemefficiency

(%)

Energy consumption(billion kl/y.)

Year

80210142010

4％ of desert area

World's Energy Consumption andRequired Solar Cell System Area

World's Energy Consumption andRequired Solar Cell System Area

27

Country networkGlobal network

Local network

Solar cellarray

Residences

Solar cell panels

GENESISGENESISGENESIS

U.S.A.

Japan

AsiaEurope

Step in the GENESIS ProjectStep in the GENESIS Project

28

DI-BSCCO: Drastically innovative BSCCO Wire (BSCCO:Bi-Sr-Ca-Cu-O)

Source：Sumitomo Electric

High-temperature superconducting WireHigh-temperature superconducting Wire

29

Superconductive Cable 320m

In July of 2006

Albaney Cable (350m) siteAlbaney Cable (350m) site

ＶＩＤＥＯ

31

32

SILK ROAD GENESIS（SRG） PlanSILK ROAD GENESIS（SRG） Plan

33

Thank you for your attention

If we mobilize all of our resources, we will resolve the global environmental and energy problems.

Making Photovoltaic Power Generation on a Global Scale a Reality

Making Photovoltaic Power Generation on a Global Scale a Reality