The Near-Term Outlook for the Washington Area...
Transcript of The Near-Term Outlook for the Washington Area...
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Turner Mid-Atlantic Group2012 Annual Real Estate Market Forecast
The Near-Term Outlook for the
Washington Area Economy
February 2, 2012
Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D.Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor
Director, Center for Regional AnalysisGeorge Mason University
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10
12
14
16
1975-Q1
1982-Q3
% C
ha
ng
e in
GD
P
Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP
Past Five Recessions
0
2
4
6
8
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1982-Q3
1991-Q1
2001-Q4
2009-Q2
Quarters After Trough
% C
ha
ng
e in
GD
P
Sources: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis,
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111.0
116.0
121.0
L.I.
U.S. Coincident and Leading IndicesNov 2006 – Nov 2011
RECESSION >
96.0
101.0
106.0
Nov-06
Feb-07
May-07
Aug-07
Nov-07
Feb-08
May-08
Aug-08
Nov-08
Feb-09
May-09
Aug-09
Nov-09
Feb-10
May-10
Aug-10
Nov-10
Feb-11
May-11
Aug-11
Nov-11
C.I.
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45
50
55
60
65
ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices
30
35
40
45 Mfg
N-Mfg
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-2000
0
2000
4000
Annual Change in Payroll Jobs – USMonth over the Year, Not Seasonally Adjusted
(1000s)
Dec =+ 1.7 M
-8000
-6000
-4000
-2000
Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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0
200
400
600
000s
US Job ChangeMonth-to-Month, Seasonally Adjusted
Dec= 200
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: BLS
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U.S. Job Change by SectorDecember 2007 – December 2009
-544
-1,206
-1,563
791
35
Leisure & Hosp.
Retail Trade
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
Educ & Health Svcs
State & Local Govt
(000s) Total - 8,363,000Ranked by Size in 2010
-375
69
-377
-200
-474
-1,795
-570
-2,192
-544
-2500 -2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000
Information
Federal Govt.
Transp. & Util.
Other Services
Wlse Trade
Construction
Financial
Manufacturing
Leisure & Hosp.
Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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U.S. Job Change by SectorDec 2010 – Dec 2011
253
226
521
420
-251
Leisure & Hosp.
Retail Trade
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
Educ & Health Svcs
State & Local Govt
(000s) Total = 1,640Ranked by Size in 2010
-36
-36
72
44
84
46
7
225
253
-600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600
Information
Federal Govt.
Transp. & Util.
Other Services
Wlse Trade
Construction
Financial
Manufacturing
Leisure & Hosp.
Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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400
450
500
550
600
650
700
Initial Claims for Unemployment4-Week Moving Average
377
200
250
300
350
400377
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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8
9
10
11
U.S. Unemployment Rate
Dec
= 8.5
%
GI FCST
4
5
6
7
Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted
GI FCST11 – 9.012 – 8.813 – 8.614 – 7.915 – 7.116 – 6.6
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80
100
120
140
100
Consumer Confidence
Expectations
0
20
40
60
9/1/07
12/1/07
3/1/08
6/1/08
9/1/08
12/1/08
3/1/09
6/1/09
9/1/09
12/1/09
3/1/10
6/1/10
9/1/10
12/1/10
3/1/11
6/1/11
9/1/11
12/1/11
Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Current Situation
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Growth in Total
Consumption Outlays
4.7
2.5 2.72.8
3.3 3.42.9
2.32.0 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.1
2.4
2
3
4
5
6
%
Forecast > > > > >
-0.6
-1.9-3
-2
-1
0
1
Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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10
20
30
%
U.S. Economic Performance
-30
-20
-10
0
Residential Fixed
Source: Global Insight
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10
20
30
%
U.S. Economic Performance
-30
-20
-10
0Residential Fixed
Non-Res: Structures
Source: Global Insight
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10
20
30
Residential Fixed
%
U.S. Economic Performance
-30
-20
-10
0 Residential Fixed
Non-Res: Structures
State & Local
Source: Global Insight
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10
20
30
Residential Fixed
%
U.S. Economic Performance
-30
-20
-10
0Residential Fixed
Non-Res: Structures
State & Local
Federal
Source: Global Insight
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10
20
30
Residential Fixed
Non-Res: Structures
%
U.S. Economic Performance
-30
-20
-10
0 Non-Res: Structures
State & Local
Federal
Bus. Inv.
Source: Global Insight
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10
20
30
GDP
Residential Fixed
%
U.S. Economic Performance
-30
-20
-10
0Residential Fixed
Non-Res: Structures
State & Local
Federal
Bus. Inv.
Source: Global Insight
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-2
0
2
4
6
U.S. Gross Domestic ProductQuarterly Change: 2007 – 2014
%Forecast > > > > > >
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
20
07
-1 2 3 4
20
08
-1 2 3 4
20
09
-1 2 3 4
20
10
-1 2 3 4
20
11
-1 2 3 4
20
12
-1 2 3 4
20
13
-1 2 3 4
20
14
-1 2
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The Washington Metropolitan
Area EconomyArea Economy
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40
80
120
160
Annual Change in JobsWashington Metro Area1,000s
-80
-40
0
Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change Dec 09 – Dec 10
0
20
40
60
80
100(000s)
Washington + 57,500
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change Dec 2010 – Dec 2011
0
20
40
60
80
100(000s)
Washington + 13,400
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA
20
40
60
80
000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year
2009 2010 2011
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
2002
2004
2006
2008
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Job Change by SectorDec 2010 – Dec 2011Washington MSA
-3
4
6
-4
8
Retail Trade
State & Local Govt
Educ & Health Svcs
Federal Govt.
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
(000s) Total = 13,400
-1
-1
-2
-2
6
-1
-2
6
-3
-20 -10 0 10 20 30
Transp. & Util.
Wlse Trade
Manufacturing
Information
Financial
Other Services
Construction
Leisure & Hosp.
Retail Trade
Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Annual Job ChangeDistrict of Columbia
30
40
50
60
000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year
2009 2010 2011
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
2002
2004
2006
2008
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Job Change by SectorNov 2010 – Nov 2011District of Columbia
0
0
3
-3
4
Retail Trade
State & Local Govt
Educ & Health Svcs
Federal Govt.
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
(000s) Total + 7,000
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
0
-20 -10 0 10 20 30
Transp. & Util.
Wlse Trade
Manufacturing
Information
Financial
Other Services
Construction
Leisure & Hosp.
Retail Trade
Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Annual Job ChangeSuburban Maryland
30
40
50
60
000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year
2009 2010 2011
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
2002
2004
2006
2008
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Annual Job ChangeNorthern Virginia
30
40
50
60
000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year
2009 2010 2011
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
2002
2004
2006
2008
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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6
8
10
12
14
10.2 – DC
8.2 – U.S.
5.5 – SMD
Unemployment Rate
0
2
4
65.5 – SMD5.4 – MSA4.2 - NVA
Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted
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The Changing Role of the
Federal Government
in the Washington Areain the Washington Area
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2010 Structure of the
Greater Washington EconomyNon-LocalBusiness12.0 %
Total
Federal
Other Federal10.7 %
Fed Wages & Salaries 10.0%
Local ServingActivities34.8%
Federal
39.8%Procurement
19.1%
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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100
120
140
160
180
FEDERAL SPENDING – WASHINGTON MSATOTAL & PROCUREMENT$ Billions
0
20
40
60
80
100
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: Census Consolidated Federal Funds Report
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50
60
70
80
90
Federal ProcurementWashington Metro Area
$ Billions
TOTAL = $862 Billion
0
10
20
30
40
50
Source: Census Consolidated Federal Funds Report
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300
350
400
Federal EmploymentWashington Metro Area
000sEisenhower
Kennedy –Johnson
Nixon -Ford
Carter Reagan Bush 1 Clinton Bush 2
+ 80
+ 36+ 18 - 6 + 4
- 42 + 22
Obama
+30
150
200
250
300
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
- 22
Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Federal GovernmentWashington MSA
15
20
25
30
000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year
2008 2009 2010 2011
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
2002
2004
2006
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Tot Nov 2010 = 378,000
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Near-Term Economic Outlook for the Washington Metropolitan Areathe Washington Metropolitan Area
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Growth Projections for Federal Spending and GRP: 2011- 2015
(in billions of 2010 dollars, annual % change)
Year Federal $s WMSA GRP
2010 $169.0 $425.02011 2.0% 2.6%2011 2.0% 2.6%2012 1.0% 2.7%2013 0.0% 2.9%2014 1.0% 3.3%2015 1.5% 3.2%2015 $178.5 $491.2Change 5.6% 15.6%
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2015Washington Area and Sub-state Portions
(Annual % Change)
3
4
5
6
7
%
DC
SMMSANV
-2
-1
0
1
2
3DC
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Employment Change by
Sub-state Region (000s)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
D.C.D.C. 10.1 10.1 --2.22.2 9.59.5 3.63.6 4.74.7 5.85.8 7.97.9 7.97.9
Sub. MDSub. MD --3.33.3 --25.125.1 --5.95.9 2.42.4 5.35.3 9.99.9 11.811.8 13.213.2Sub. MDSub. MD --3.33.3 --25.125.1 --5.95.9 2.42.4 5.35.3 9.99.9 11.811.8 13.213.2
No. VANo. VA 6.1 -23.0 8.7 14.5 13.6 13.9 16.2 20.2
REGION 12.912.9 --50.350.3 11.311.3 20.520.5 23.623.6 29.629.6 35.935.9 41.341.3
Average Annual Change 1990-2010 = 36,000
Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, 2009-2015 based on 2010 Benchmark data from BLS, Revised 1/9/2012
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2015 Structure of the
Greater Washington EconomyNon-LocalBusiness14.0 %
Total
Federal
Other Federal9.5 %
Fed Wages & Salaries 9.4 %
Local ServingActivities34.2%
Federal
36.3%Procurement
17.4%
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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2
4
6
8
%
GDP/GRP 2000 - 2015
Washington
-4
-2
0
2
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
U.S.
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