The Nation’s Hurricane Program:

An Interagency Success Story

March 5 - 9, 2007

61st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

Mr. Samuel P. WilliamsonFederal Coordinator for Meteorology

Sponsored and hosted by: The Office of the Federal Coordinator

for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research

61st Interdepartmental Hurricane ConferenceThe Nation’s Hurricane Program:

An Interagency Success Story

Welcoming Remarks

61st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

Representing The Honorable C. Ray NaginMayor of New Orleans

Colonel Terry J. Ebbert, USMC (Retired)

Special Welcome

• Why Are We Here

• Successes and Challenges

• Conference Objectives

• Conference Agenda

• Conference Logistics

• Keynote Speaker

• Special Remarks

Overview

1 Great Miami 1926 4 139.5 2 Galveston 1900 4 91.6 3 Katrina 2005 3 81.0 4 Galveston 1915 4 63.0 5 Andrew 1992 5 52.3 6 New England 1938 3 37.3 7 FL-SW 1944 3 35.6 8 Lake Okeechobee 1928 4 31.8 9 Donna 1960 4 28.9 10 Camille 1969 5 24.0

Rank Hurricane Year CAT Normalized Damage*

* Methodology used by Collins and Lowe (2001); U.S. billions $Reference: Pielke et al 2007

Why Are We Here

• Successes– Advances in modeling / data assimilation

• Improvements in track & intensity model guidance– Joint Hurricane Test bed (JHT)– Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA)– Joint hurricane field programs– Improved reconnaissance & observing capabilities (e.g., Stepped

Frequency Microwave Radiometer)• Challenges

– Data assimilation / modeling / computing power– Improved forecast skill for:

• Storm intensity / structure• Storm track• Sea state & storm surge• Inland flooding

– Observation gaps (e.g., ocean surface vector winds)– Information dissemination (technology, message)

• Incorporating results of social science research into operations

Successes and Challenges

• Review the Nation’s tropical cyclone forecast and warning program form end-to-end, and update the National Hurricane Operations Plan for 2007

• Evaluate the 2006 Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) results and successfully transition research results into operations, as well as potential candidates for 2007 and beyond

• Address/build upon the actions and results from the 60th IHC

– Roll out the Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead and begin addressing the recommendations

– Examine how hazard risk reduction improvements can be made through stronger partnerships and alliances

Conference Objectives

• Keynote Address 1:00 – 1:20 PM VADM Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., USN (ret.)

Undersecretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere / NOAA Administrator

• Special Remarks on behalf of Governor Kathleen Babineaux Blanco 1:20 – 1:35 PM

Major General Hunt DownerAssistant Adjutant General (Army), Joint Force

Headquarters-Louisiana, Louisiana National Guard, New Orleans, Louisiana

This Afternoon

Conference Agenda

• Panel Discussion: Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones – A View from the Top1:40 – 3:30 PM Moderator: Dr. Robert Serafin, NCAR Director EmeritusPanelists: Dr. Richard Spinrad, Assistant Administrator for Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, NOAADr. Jack Kaye, Associate Director for Research, Earth Science Division, NASA HeadquartersDr. Stephan Nelson, Program Director, Physical and Dynamic Meteorology, NSFMr. William Curry, Deputy Technical Director, Oceanographer of the NavyMr. X. William (Bill) Proenza, Director, Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center, NOAA/NWS

This Afternoon

Conference Agenda

• Session 1: The 2006 Tropical Cyclone Season in Review 4:00 – 5:45 PM

Session Leaders: Dr. Edward Rappaport (TPC/NHC) and

CAPT John O’Hara (NMFC/JTWC)

• Reception/Icebreaker: 6:30 - 8:00 PM

– Atrium Foyer (2nd Floor)

Later This Afternoon and Evening

Conference Agenda

• Banquet Address:

Mr. John M. Barry, Best-Selling Author, 2006 Abel Wolman Lecturer about Hurricane Katrina, and

Distinguished Visiting Scholar at the Center for Bioenvironmental Research of Tulane and Xavier Universities

• Presentation of the Hagemeyer Award

Cash Bar Open: 6:30 PM

Banquet Starts: 7:00 PM

Banquet Address: 7:45 PM

Wednesday Evening – Conference Banquet

Conference Agenda

Opening/Administrative Remarks 8:15 AM• Ms. Mary Cairns (OFCM), Session Coordinator

WG/HWSOR: Action Item Review 8:20 AM• Dr. Edward Rappaport (TPC/NHC) Chairperson, WG/HWSOR

Workshop Wrap-ups 8:45 AM• Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones:

The Way Ahead, Dr. Paul D. Try (OFCM/STC)

• Hazard Risk Reduction through Stronger Partnerships and Alliances, Dr. Betty Hearn Morrow (OFCM/STC) and Ms. Naomi Moye (OFCM/STC)

Final Wrap-up 9:15 AMMr. Samuel P. Williamson, Federal Coordinator

Adjourn 9:45 AM

Friday Morning – Final Plenary Session

Conference Agenda

Conference Logistics

Conference Chair: Mr. Samuel P. Williamson Conference Coordinators

Media Coordinators

Asst. Coordinator for Conference ArrangementsAudiovisual Specialists

Registrars

Mr Bob DumontMr. Mark WelshingerMr. Kent LabordeMr. Mark WelshingerLt Col David AndrusMs. Erin McNamaraMs. Christina BorkMr. Ken BarnettMr. Frank EstisMs. Dawn ErlichMs. Carmelita RileyMs. Delores Shackelford

Presentation Timers

Session Coordinators

Poster Session

Conference Logistics

Mr. Tony RamirezMr. Mark Gunzelman

Col Michael BabcockMs. Mary CairnsMr. Bob DumontMr. Frank Estis Mr. Floyd HauthDr. Paul TryDr. Mark Weadon

Col Michael Babcock

Rapporteurs Ms. Mary CairnsMr. Mark GunzelmanMr. Floyd HauthDr. Betty Hearn MorrowMs. Naomi MoyeMr. Tony RamirezDr. Mark Weadon

Conference Logistics

Conference Logistics

First Floor

Second Floor

Blaine Kern Ballroom

River Bend

BallroomAtrium

Posters

Conference

Icebreaker

Banquet

Keynote SpeakerKeynote Speaker: VADM Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., USN ret.)

Undersecretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere / NOAA Administrator

The Nation’s Hurricane Program

61st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

Representing The Honorable Kathleen Babineaux Blanco

Governor of Louisiana

Special Remarks

Major General Hunt Downer, USA

Moderator: Dr. Robert Serafin, NCAR Director Emeritus

Panelists: Dr. Richard Spinrad, Assistant Administrator for Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, NOAA

Dr. Jack Kaye, Associate Director for Research, Earth Science Division, NASA Headquarters

Dr. Stephan Nelson, Program Director, Physical and Dynamic Meteorology, NSF

Mr. William Curry, Deputy Technical Director, Oceanographer of the Navy

Mr. X. William (Bill) Proenza, Director, Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane

Center, NOAA/NWS

Opening Session PanelInteragency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones – A View from the Top

NASA – Dr. Ramesh Kakar Program Manager

NASA Headquarters

NOAA - Dr. Richard SpinradAssistant Administrator for

Oceanic and Atmospheric Research

NSF – Dr. Stephan NelsonProgram Director,Physical and Dynamic

Meteorology

Army - Dr. Andrew GarciaResearch Scientist, U.S. Army Engineer R&D Center

Navy - CAPT David Titley Commanding Officer, NavalOceanography Operations Command

USGS – Ms. Marge DavenportAssociate Regional Executive

Air Force – Col Michael Babcock

Assistant AF Deputyto NOAA

USDA – Mr. Brad RippeyAgricultural Meteorologist

Federal Agency Lead Reps

FEMA – Mr. Matthew Green Hurricane Liaison Team Coordinator

• Questions welcomed...time permitting

• Significant agency issues worked through lead agency reps

– User community & agency reps are welcome to raise issues for discussion during Q&A periods and at Thursday workshops

• Significant issues reviewed daily at OFCM staff meeting

– Issues that need to be reviewed by Working Group for Hurricane and Winter Storms Operations and Research

• Presented to the Working Group on Thursday afternoon

– Results of discussions and any action items

• Summarized during the Final Plenary Session

Ground Rules

Dr. Edward Rappaport, Deputy Director, TPC/NHCCAPT John O’Hara, NMFC/JTWC

61st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

2006 Hurricane/Typhoon Season in Review(4:00 to 5:45 PM)

Session Leaders

Coordinator: Mr. Robert Dumont, OFCM

Session 1

Reception / Icebreaker

Atrium Foyer (2nd Floor)6:30 - 8:00 PM