The National Population Council MDGs 2015 Country...

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Republic of The Sudan

Ministry of Welfare and Social and Security

The National Population Council

MDGs 2015 Country Report

Achievement of the Millenninum Development Goals in the Sudan

Future Prospects for The Post-2015 Development Agenda and Beyond

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Republic of the Sudan Ministry of Welfare and Social Security The National Population Council MDGs 2015 Country Report Achievement of the Millennium Development Goals in the Sudan Future Prospects for the Post-2015 Development Agenda and Beyond Khartoum September2015

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Table of Contents A Word from The Minister ......................................................................................................5

Foreword .................................................................................................................................6

Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................7

List of Abbreviations ...............................................................................................................8

Introduction ............................................................................................................................9

Layout of the Report .........................................................................................................11

Executive Summary ...............................................................................................................13

The MDGs Framework ..........................................................................................................22

Methodology and Process ....................................................................................................24

Policy Environment ...............................................................................................................26

Secession of the South ......................................................................................................26

Conflicts.............................................................................................................................27

Major Population Shifts and Future Prospects .....................................................................29

Development Policy Environment ........................................................................................32

National Consultations on the Post-2015 Development Agenda .........................................34

Future Economic and Social Development Prospects ..........................................................36

Data for Development ..........................................................................................................39

MDG1: Eradicate Extreme Poverty and Hunger ...................................................................41

Income Poverty .................................................................................................................42

Employment and Decent Work.........................................................................................44

Food Poverty .....................................................................................................................45

Food Security ....................................................................................................................46

Household Food Security ..................................................................................................47

Nutrition ............................................................................................................................49

Pro-poor Expenditure .......................................................................................................51

Institutional Arrangements ...............................................................................................53

Addressing the Challenges ................................................................................................54

MDG2: Achieve Universal Primary Education ......................................................................55

Education Enrollment .......................................................................................................55

Institutional Development ................................................................................................58


MDG3: Promote Gender Equality and Empower Women ....................................................60

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Women’s Education ..........................................................................................................60

Women’s Employment .....................................................................................................61

Women’s Participation in Leadership Positions ...............................................................62



MDG4: Reduce Child Mortality .............................................................................................65

Mother’s Education ..........................................................................................................67



MDG5: Improve Maternal Health .........................................................................................69



MDG6: Combat HIV/AIDS, Malaria and other Diseases .......................................................73

HIV/AIDS ............................................................................................................................73

Malaria ..............................................................................................................................74

Tuberculosis ......................................................................................................................74



MDG7: Ensure Environmental Sustainability ........................................................................76

Forestry .............................................................................................................................76

Green House Gas Emissions ..............................................................................................77

Fisheries ............................................................................................................................78

Water Use .........................................................................................................................78

Sanitation ..........................................................................................................................79



MDG8: Develop a Global Partnership for Development ......................................................84

Official Development Assistance ......................................................................................84

Trade for Development .....................................................................................................86

Economic Sanctions ..........................................................................................................86

The Debt Burden ...............................................................................................................87

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A Word from The Minister This report has been prepared under the auspice of the Ministry of Welfare and Social Security. It is the third and final, and it documents the Government ownership of the MDGs, and of its commitment to their achievement through peace and development activities in the country. The report has been prepared for the “New Sudan”,1 so to speak, after the secession of South Sudan in July 2011. The Sudan that has recently emerged as a post conflict country provides new governance institutions: political, institutional and administrative structures2 for peace and development. The national elections that were conducted in May 2015 have led to a new National Assembly and Government for running the peace and development affairs during a five-year period to 2020. The country is currently engaged in political dialogue and community consultations on peace and stability, which will furnish the base for the Sustainable Development Goals and the Post 2015 development agenda in the country. This report comes at the end of the MDGs period, and provides a comprehensive account of the Sudan’s progress and performance on the MDGs, particularly on alleviating poverty, empowering youth and women, addressing the gender gaps in health, education, and ensuring sustainability of the environment. The report underscores variations by State, residence (rural urban) and gender, and identifies the policy interventions that are needed to accelerate progress on the unfinished MDGs. While I appreciate and commend the efforts devoted to the preparation of this report, I would like to especially acknowledge the development partnership role of the UNDP for its efforts and investments in the achievement of the MDGs in the Country. The Government of Sudan will harness such partnerships for the SDGs and the post 2015 development agenda in the country. Mashaaer Ahmad Al Ameen Minister of Welfare and Social Security

1Unless otherwise shown, all statistics and indicators in this report refer to The Sudan 2 The country consists of 18 States divided into 176 localities, which take the responsibility of development management at the local level and according to a Federal governance system that has been in place since 1994.

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Foreword This report has been prepared through a consultative and participatory process that was structured around the MDGs framework, and the engagement of focal points in line ministries and departments. The analyses are based on written contributions and indicators prepared by a technical working group, and on the results of national surveys undertaken by the Central Bureau of Statistics. Currently the Government is undertaking a national survey on the multidimensional aspects of poverty, and its results are not yet available for analyses in this report. The analyses have been enriched by the outcomes of consultations on the Post-2015 Development Agenda, and on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The Government participated in the global and regional consultations, and it organized national consultations engaging the States, line ministries and departments, and development partners in the country. This MDGs report is quite informative and supportive to planning and decision-making for peace and development in the Sudan. Policy makers and officials in Government, NGOs and development partners, will find it useful for their activities. Dr. LimiaaAbdulgafar, Secretary General of the National Population Council

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Acknowledgements This report could not have been produced without teamwork and the contributions prepared by thematic working groups composed of departments and line ministries. It has been prepared under theauspice of the Ministry of Welfare and Social Security and the Minister Mashaaer Ahmad AlameenAldoalabm and the leadership of Dr. LimiaaAbdulgafar, Secretary General of the National Population Council (NPC). The report has been prepared under the management of Wisal Hussein, Deputy Secretary of the NPC, and with secretariat and coordination support provided by Mai Bashir and the Staff of the National Population Council. The UNDP country office in The Sudan provided technical guidance and financial resources and support, all of which have greatly facilitated the process of preparing the final MDGs Report. Special thanks go to Dr. Hassan Musa Yousif, for the substantive and technical preparation of this report, and to the flowing national experts for their valuable contributions:

Somaia Khalid Elkhair Omer- Central Bureau of Statistics, Abdelrahman Mohamed Ahmed Alkhalifa - Ministry of Environment, Natural Resource and Physical Development AmenaAbdulhameed Ali - Ministry of Environment, Natural Resource and Physical Development NaglaMahgoubHamadainJebory-Forests National Corporation Sanaa Ahmed AbbasharElhassan- Ministry of Education Farida Hassan Elbanakoko - General Directorate for women & Family Affairs, Ministry of Welfare and Social Security SuhairKhalafallahAlsidique – Food Security Department-Ministry of Agriculture SawsanEltahir Suleiman,Planning- M&E, Primary Health Care, Federal Ministry of Health SihamElamin – Reproductive Health Manger, Federal Ministry of Health Maha Mohammed El Hussein- Poverty Reduction Projects Coordination Center,Ministry of Welfare and Social Security Modawi Ibrahim Mohamad Ahmad – Water and Sanitation Unit Huda MohamadAlhassan Ali – Ministry of Youth and Sports Mukhtar Bilal Abdel Salam- Ministry of Foreign Affairs

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List of Abbreviations AfDB African Development Bank AIDS Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome ART Anti RetroviralTreatment AU African Union CBS Central Bureau of Statistics CNS Comprehensive National Strategy CPA Comprehensive Peace Agreement CSOs Civil Society Organizations DPA Doha Peace Agreement ESPA East Sudan Peace Agreement FDI Foreign Direct Investment FGM/C Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting GDP Gross Domestic Product GoS Government of the Sudan HACCP Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points HCENR Higher Council for Environment and Natural Resource HIPC Heavily Indebted Poor Countries HIV Human Immunodeficiency Virus IDP Internally Displaced People IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPRSP Interim Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper JAM Joint Assessment Mission LAS League of Arab States LDCs Least Developed Countries MDGs Millennium Development Goals MICS Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey NAP National Adaptation Plan NAPA National Action Plan of Adaptation NCSP National Council for Strategic Planning NLCDS National Low-Carbon-Development-Strategy NGOs Non Governmental Organizations NPC National Population Council NPL National Poverty Line NSS National Statistics System SDGs Sustainable Development Goals SDG Sudanese Pounds QCS Quarter Century Strategy UNDP United Nations Development Program UN United Nations UNEP United Nations Environmental Program UNECA United Nations Economic Commission for Africa UNFPA United Nations Population Fund UNHCR United Nations High Commission for Refugees

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Introduction This is the 3rd country report on the MDGs and is the 1st since the people of South Sudan opted for secession in July 9, 2011, which was a turning point in the history of the country. The secession is not the end of history,but a new beginning for the Sudan and at the time when the Government’s activities on peace and development are gaining high momentum, and when the international community is engaged in the Post-2015 Development Agenda and in the SDGs.During this new era the GoSwill continue to implement its Quarter Century Strategy (QCS 2007-2031), which calls for peace and development, improving the living conditions of all people, and attaining the visionof“A civilized, peaceful and united Sudanese nation "3. At this historical moment, it is important to take stock of what the GoS did on peace and development, and to understand the circumstances and emerging events it has faced during the MDGs period 2000 – 2015. Also it is time to pause and prepare for a great future-leap on peace and development in the country, which will provide an enabling environment for the achievement of the SDGs. Subsequent to endorsement of the Millennium Declaration in 2000, the GoShasintegrated the MDGs in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement4 (CPA) in 2005, and in the Joint Assessment Mission (JAM) for reconstruction, rehabilitation and development during the transitional period (2005-2011). Also, the formulation and implementation of the peace initiatives for Darfor and Eastern Sudan5have been informed by the MDGs. These commendable efforts are significant achievements for the GoS, and salient contributions to peace, security and stability in the region and the world. Likewise, the MDGs have been eloquently integrated in the national development strategies and activities in the country. They have featured prominently in the Interim National Constitution 2005, The QCS2007-2031, the first National Development Plan 2007-2011, the second National Development Plan 2012-2016, the Interim Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper 2012, and the Five-year Program for Economic Reform 2015-2019. These activities are testimony of GoS commitment to integrating the MDGs in national development policy. The use of the MDGs to support development policy in the Sudan is reflected in two MDGs reports published in 2004 and in 2010, both of which have covered the whole country (north and south). These official efforts have been complemented by the Non Governmental Organizations (NGOs) report on the MDGs, which has been prepared and

3National Council for Strategic Planning (NCSP) 4 The GoS conducted the 5th Population and Housing Census, which was used for the implementation of the CPA and for power and wealth sharing between northern and southern Sudan. 5 Eastern Sudan Peace Agreement, October 2006, and 2011 Doha Agreement

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published in 2015 for the Sudan after secession, and under the auspices of the National Population Council (NPC). Owning the peace process and owning the development agenda, which mutually reinforce each other, is highly important for the GoS activities on peace and development in the country and the region. All the efforts and activities above mentioned reflect the commitment of the Government to the achievement of the MDGs in the country through the peace process and through development projects and programs. This commitment and political-will were expected to garner international support and harness partnerships for the achievement of the national development priorities, particularly after the GoS signed the CPA in 2005 in Nairobi, Kenya. Unexpectedly, the Sudan faced immense constraints resembled in the emergence of conflict in Darfor and later on in Southern Kordofan and the Blue Nile, renewal and continuation of the economic embargo and sanctions, the crushing burden of external debt, and reluctance to admit the Sudan to the group of Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC). Since July 2011 when the people of the South willfully seceded, the Sudan faced new and emerging circumstancesresembled in the reduction of population size, land area, forests, animal wealth, water, and other natural resources. Most important, the GoS lost the great majority of its revenues from oil, but it managed to successfullydiversify the sources of economic growth into new areas of production in the energy, mining and services sectors. Assessment of the country’s progress on the MDGs must be considered with the above-mentioned constraints and circumstances in mind. The man-made negative impacts are expected to wane and eventually vanish,against the Government resolve to achieve peace and development in the country. The future of the Sudan is bright. Following the outcomes of national elections conducted in May 2015 for the Presidency and the National Assembly, a new Government is now in place in the country. The new Governmentis determined to improve the living conditions of people at the national and State levels, and to bring peace and stability to people in the conflict areas. The analyses in this report aim to concertize thepeace and developmentresults, and to identify the gaps for undertaking the right mix of policy interventions to achieve the national development priorities, as stated in the Five-Year National Development Plan 20012-2017 and the Five-year Program for Economic Reform 2015-2019. The new Governmentis currently implementing strategies to formalize the economy, maximize the mobilization of domestic resources and harness development partnerships to complete the unfinished MDGs, and to strategically plan for the Post-2015 development agenda in the country. The report adopts a comprehensive approach that covers both of “progress” and “performance” on the MDGs. Progress towards the achievement of the targets and goals is the classical type of MDGs analyses that most countries have pursued. But in the case of

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the unusual constraints and events mentioned before, quantitative analyses alone will not do justice to the Government’s efforts on achieving peace and development in the country. Therefore, the analyses must cover the “performance” activities that have fundamentally changed the Sudan from the conditions in 2000, when the GoS adopted the Millennium Declaration. These efforts include steady high economic growth; increasing investment in industries, oil and infrastructure, formalization of the economy, progress on social development policies and legislature, progress on human rights and development in the system of statistics6, population register, and birth registration.All these efforts provide an enabling environment for the Sudan to achieve rapid progress on peace and development.

Layout of the Report Following this brief introduction, the report provides an executive summary of the main findings. This is followed by succinct analyses of the MDGs framework as a tool for setting national development priorities, and for monitoringand reporting progress on development.Subsequently, the methodologyadopted in the preparation of this report is briefly described. It is based on the MDGs framework, and on a process that was both consultative and participatory, mainly for the purpose of ascertaining national ownership, and to compile, as much as possible, accuratedataand up-to-date information to support both of the “process” and “performance” on the development agenda in the Sudan. The report provides brief analyses of the policy environment. The focus is on the constraints and circumstances that the Sudan has faced during the MDGs period 2000-2015. The secession of the south, the emergence of conflict supported by external forces of politics and power, the continuation of the sanctions for about two decades and the crippling impacts of the debt burden, are all very major constraints to achieving peace and development in the country. Notwithstanding these difficult circumstances, the GoS managed to diversify the sources of economic growth and development partnership, and to make significant progress on peace and security in the country and the region. These analyses are followed by abrief account of the major population trends in the country, including the demographic dividend, rapid urbanization, and population displacement in the conflict areas. The report provides brief analyses of the development policy environment, with focus on Government efforts on development planning, and on future economic and social prospects. A short section follows on the outcomes of consultations on the Post-2015 Development Agenda and the SDGs, to which the Sudan contributed at the national, regional and global7 levels.The report briefly analyzes data for development to support the use of statistics for planning, policies and decision-making in

6 In June 2015 the President Omar Albashir issued a decision to conduct the 6th Population and Housing Census in April 2018. The census process will be supervised by a Higher Census Council headed by the first Vice President 7The Government has organized consultations on the Post-2015 Development Agenda at the national and state levels, and for civil society organizations. Also, the Government participated in the consultations at the global level, and in the Africa region and the Arab states.

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the country. Theabove-mentioned exposition is followed by analyses of the “progress” and “performance” on the eight MDGs. The analyses are based on the results of the MICS 2014, the NBHS 2009, and the SLFS 2011. Data and information have been compiled through an official questionnaire and meetings of thematic working groups from line ministries and departments, and from the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS). Besides analyses of the indicators for each MDG, the analyses cover information on the policies and legislation, institutional structures in place, performance and intervention, and policy measures for addressing the challenges. Where possible, these analyses have been disaggregated by State, residence (rural-urban) and sex (males, females).

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Executive Summary The MDGs for peace and development... Fifteen years ago the Sudan adopted the Millennium Declaration, and integrated the MDGs in the peace initiatives for the settlement of conflicts and for the reconstruction and rehabilitation activities in conflict areas. The MDGs framework have been used for thepreparation of the Interim National Constitution 2005, and in the preparation of the Quarter Century Strategy 2007-2031, which is currently under implementation through five-year national development plans (2007-2011, 2012-2016), and a five-year program for economic reform (2015-2019). Therefore, the MDGs in the Sudan are tools for peace and development policy, and are constitutional commitments for implementation by all bodies of governance in the country: Federal, State and Localities. …and the SDGs for a bright future for the Sudan Peace and development in the Sudan are intertwined and they go hand-in-hand for the achievement of long lasting stability and sustainable development outcomes. The intertwining of peace and development has featured prominently in the global and regional consultations on the Post 2015 Development Agenda and on the Sustainable Development Goals. The Sudan is pioneer on linking peace and development, and has accumulated valuable lessons of experience for its own benefit, and for the benefit of its neighbors in Africa and the Arab World. The Governmentis domesticating the SDGs through organization of national consultations that have covered the States, private sector and Civil Society Organizations;providing opportunities for officials and non-State actors to appreciate and own the Post 2015 Development Agenda. These activities have led to the preparation of a national consultation paper, and to the agreement on poverty, peace and security, education, and food security as fundamental challenges of concern for the Sudan’s future discourse on peace and development. The constraints are formidable… The MDGs achievement in the Sudan have been faced with immense constraints and difficulties resembled in the economic and social repercussions of the secession of South Sudan in 2011, emergence of conflict in Darfor and later-on in South Kordofan and the Blue Nile, the continuation of the economic sanctions, the crushing burden of external

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debt, and the reluctance to admit the Sudan to the group of Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC). Limited flows of ODA come through the UN system, and are mostly spent on humanitarian activities. The exports of national products, such as gum Arabic and livestock, are constrained by limitations of international money transfers.The same is true for areas such as technology and spare parts that are needed for the maintenance of equipment and machinery. ...and theGoS is making efforts to overcome them These constraints are hurting the ordinary people. The Government determination and commitment to obviate their negative impacts, and to achieve peace and development in the Sudan is remarkable. It is currently putting the house in order: fighting corruption, formalizing the economy, increasing the mobilization of domestic resources, diversifying the sources of economic growth, and domesticating technology. Through south-south and triangular partnerships the Government is developing new and innovative means for the achievement of the MDGs in the country. Peace has been achieved in Darfor and Eastern Sudan, and conflict in the Blue Nile and Southern Kordofan has subsided. Infrastructure development in the conflict areas is supported with the devolution of management and governance powers to States and localities, and with the development of social services and delivery systems at the State level. The GoS is making efforts to help the people of South Sudan develop and live in stability. Those who fled their country to live in the Sudan have been given food and shelter, and are not considered refugees. The Sudan is witnessing major development transformation... Development transformations are resembled in rapid urbanization, rapid increase in population size, and exponential increase in adults in the working age 25 to 64. By 2030, the year for the achievement of the SDGs, Sudan will have more working age adults (23 million) than children (20 million) and youth aged 15 to 24 (11 million). By 2075 there will be two adults in the working age for every one child aged below 15. This will probably increase to 3:1 by 2100. The country entertains advanced telecommunication systems and has developed networks of roads, bridges, transportations and dams for irrigation and electricity. All these developments will increase sector productivity and enhance the efficiency of the economy and delivery of social services.

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The country is witnessing an upsurge in human trafficking and illegal residents, most of whom waiting for opportunities to cross the Sahara desert and the Mediterranean to Europe and other parts of the world. …. andopportunities for future development and growth These transformations provide immense opportunities for development and economic growth in the country. Especially, most of the working age people have the potential to become producers of goods and services and active participants in the labour force. There is also high potential for expanding the markets for goods, services, labour and finance, all of which require formalization through economic and social policies. There is also high potential for increasing foreign trade, especially with neighbouring countries, all of which will strengthen Sudan’s role in regional integration in Africa and the Arab world. Progress and performance on the MDGsmatter equally Since development is for people, progress on their welfare, is the fundamental goal of national development policies and strategies. Therefore, the report adopts a performance approach to monitor progress on the development agenda, to identify the areas where progress has been made, and the gaps where interventions are needed. This report has adopted a comprehensive and consultative approach that has covered both of the progress and the performance on the achievement of the MDGs in the Sudan. Besides reallocation of resources, this approach will also help in retargeting and redirecting public and private investments, and better harnessing development partnership for the achievement of national development priorities. Poverty is pervasive and widespread…. Poverty is pervasive and its incidence is high, at 46.5 per cent, and it varies significantly by State and place of residence (rural-urban). The incidence rate is lowest (26.0%) in Khartoum and highest (69.4%) in Northern Darfor, and is higher in rural areas (57.6%) than in urban areas (26.5%). These varying incidence rates indicate that poverty is widespread, and is linked to inequalities in the distribution of wealth and income. …. and is being addressed by effective policies and actions The GoS is implementing comprehensive macroeconomic and social policies for poverty alleviation. They include cash transfers to poor families, social protection networks and mechanisms, social solidarity programs, microfinance and small scale enterprises, provision of low cost housing and free health services to the poor, and involvement of

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community-based-organizations in addressing poverty at the levels of the States and localities. Actual pro-poor expenditure as a proportion of the GDP has increased from 4.2 per cent in 2012 to 5.0 per cent in 2014. Nearly half of the total public expenditure is pro-poor, which is a major achievement, given the serious constraints the Sudan has faced during this period. Wages and salaries constitute the largest share of the pro-poor expenditure, while the actual development poverty-reducing expenditure increased from 1.15 per cent of GDP in 2012 to 1.83 per cent in 2014: 59 per cent increase.The actual development poverty-reducing expenditure is higher at the State level than at the Federal level. Between 2012 and 2014, this expenditure increased by about 67.7 per cent at the State level, compared to only 49.0 per cent at the Federal level. The outcomes of public policy measures will become more significant when the negative impacts of the challenges and constraints above-mentioned are minimized through removal of the sanctions and debt relief, among others. The Government is planning to reduce the incidence of poverty by 11.5 percentage points: to below 35 per cent in 2019 (according to the Five-year Program for Economic Reform 2015-2019); and further to 23 per cent by 2031 (according to the National Population Policy). There is paucity of data for improving poverty measures and for undertaking research on the multidimensional aspects of poverty. In order to address this concern the GoS is preparing a national strategy and is currently conducting a national poverty survey, which has been delayed by the sanctions and the results are not yet ready for analyses in this report. Education is widespread in the country… Progress on education at all levels has been impressive. Education in the Sudan has received priority in investment and spending by the GoS and the private sector, both of which have led to phenomenal expansion of the education system in the country since 1990. Everywhere in the country new schools have been established, especially for girls. The expansions of schools for girls and increase in girls’ intake have led to the achievement of gender equality in basic education. Girls have surpassed boys in secondary and tertiary education. There is also good progress on the continuation of students to higher grades. …addressing the challenges will maximize the education outcomes The provision of education services fall short of the huge demand for it particularly in rural areas. Increasing investment in education at all levels is needed to increase the supply of education services at all levels.The education system is highly challenged by rapidly

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increasing school age population, and by financial needs for covering the high costs of education and improving the school environment. Dropout from schools, which is linked to poverty, is also a challenging trend. Improving the quality of education is another challenge that the GoSis planning to address. TheGoS will promote girls education through increasing awareness of its importance in areas and States where culture is an impediment. The Sudan is high up on the empowerment of women... The immediate impacts of the increase in girls’ education are reflected in the improvement of literacy among women aged 14 to 25. Women to men parity index on literacy for the 14 to 25 years old have increased from 0.84 in 2000 to 0.95 in 2013. This increase in the gender parity index is primarily due to increase of the literacy rate among women aged 14 to 25 from 72.3 per cent in 2000 to 85.5 in 2013. The literacy rate has increased from 72.3 per cent in 2000 to 87.9 in 2013 for men in the same age group. Women have excelled in civil service, as the civil service records since 2000show more women than men. The ratio of women to men employed in the civil service increased from 1.21 in 2008 to 1.23 in 2009, and 1.32 in 2012. According to the labour laws, males and females have equal opportunities for jobs. The employment rules make equal provision for wages and according to responsibilities and performance. The increasing implementation of these provisions will lead to gender equality in civil service in the country. Women have also moved-on in decision-making,politics, leadership, and planning positions. There are more women than ever before in the National Parliament, and senior executive positions, such as advisors to the president, Federal and State ministers, vice presidents of universities and deans of colleges, and ambassadors. Sudanese women have contributed to conflict resolution in their areas of residence and in the rounds of peace negotiations held in Abuja, Nairobi, Addis Ababa and Doha. .....moreprogress on women’s empowerment in the future There are disparities by State and socioeconomic status that will undoubtedly improve in the future. For example the impacts of girls’ education on the literacy rate for women aged 14 to 25 are yet to be seen in the States located in Kordofan ad Darfor regions, and in Sinnar, Gadarif, Kassala and Blue Nile States. Most likely these States will witness rapid increase in women’s literacy rate in the near future when the current boomof school-girlsin primary education move upward the age scale. Women’s employment in the labour market still falls behind men. Men dominate wage employment in the non-agriculture sector, and rural women are at disadvantage compared to urban women.The Ministry of Welfare and Social Security is addressing this concern through development projects that target rural women.

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Besides the male’ dominance, employment in the non-agriculture sector is urban-based. Out of every 4 persons employed in the non-agriculture sector, 3 are in urban areas and only 1 in rural areas. Undoubtedly, rapid urbanization is an important factor in the concentration of non-agriculture employment in urban areas and the transference of jobs and human resources from rural to urban centres. The health of infants and children have improved... Child health in the Sudan has improved, as reflected in declining infant and under five mortality rates. Also, there is impressive positive change on laws and legislations related to children, and on their enforcement. However, the improvements in child health are moderate, and not widespread. Mortality at infancy and early childhood is high in rural areas and in most of the States. …and there is room for further improvement Therefore, there is high potential for further rapid improvements on the health of infants and children in the country. The implementation of health policies, such as full immunization coverage and free medicines for children below age 5, at the State level will reduce the high death rates among infants and children. Also, implementation of the nutrition policies will go a long way in eliminating acute malnutrition, reducing the prevalence and incidence of disease, and improving the health status of infants, children and their mothers. There is progress on reproductive health…. Progress on reproductive health is observable in the country, particularly in Khartoum, Northern and River Nile States. According to the official records, maternal mortality has been reduced by 60 per cent: from 537 in 1990 to 216 in 2010. Adolescent fertility has been declined by 14 per cent: from 93 in 2010 to 80 in 2013. Antenatal care has moderately increased from 74.1 per cent in 2006 to 79.1 in 2014. The average use of any modern contraceptive method has increased to 12.2 per cent in 2014, compared to 9 per cent in 2010. ... andmore will to be done to promote maternal health The improvements in maternal health are moderate and mostly focussed in urban areas and States where women have access to services. The highly skewed distribution of reproductive health services needs to be addressed by Government and development partners. Maternal health faces a plethora of challenges, particularly in rural areas where the great majority of women in the reproductive age reside and where maternal health services are meagre. There is shortage of trained and skilled midwives, and shortage of knowledge on

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how, where and when to follow-up pregnancy and to safely deliver babies. The Ministryof Health is implementing strategies to increase the number of skilled midwives. Some traditional practices, such as FGM/C and early marriage, combined with lack of knowledge on modern contraceptive methods and of their use for planning the timing of pregnancies and spacing between births, are among the detrimental factors of improved maternal health. Much of the negative impacts of these factors will be mitigated through increasing women’s education and supportingthe enrolment and continuation of girls in schools. Extra efforts will be devoted to promote awareness and capacity development, and to improve the statistics on maternal health, particularly through registration of maternal deaths by cause when they occur. Public health is improving The incidence and prevalence of HIV/AIDS is low in the country. According to the most recent estimates for 2014 prepared by the GoS and UNAIDS, the HIV prevalence rate is 0.2% for adults aged 15 to 49. The total number of people of all age groups living with HIV is estimated at 53 thousands, of whom 49 thousands are in the age group 15 to 49. Women aged 15 and above living with HIV are estimated at 23 thousands. Deaths attributed to AIDS were about 2900 in 2014. Patients on ART represent only 10.6 per cent coverage in 2013, compared to 9.5 per cent and 9.6 per cent in 2011 and 2012, respectively. This low rate is due to low testing, weak linking mechanisms with treatment centers, and high rates of lost to follow up and deaths upon treatment. The death rate per 100 thousand populations attributed to tuberculosis declined by more than half: from 53 in 1990 to 25 in 2014. Tuberculosis is concentrated in Eastern Sudan, and its prevalence follows a typical age pattern, with a peak of 78.4 per cent of the cases reported for ages 15 to 54. These are the productive age groups, meaning that TB impacts negatively on productivity and economic growth. Malaria is a major public health problem in the Sudan, and its prevalence has declined from 3.7 per cent to 1.8 per cent during 2005–2009, and the reported cases have been reduced from 7.5 million in 1990 to 2.3 million in 2009. Malaria is no longer among the top 10 causes of death in the country. Development on environmental institutions is impressive … The Sudan has made impressive development on environmental institutions and on environmental policies, legislations and strategies. The GoS has prepared a National Low-Carbon-Development-Strategy (NLCDS) through the HCENR. The main development objective of this strategy is the achievement and subsequent consolidation of the MDGs. Also the Government has prepared a strategic plan for the reduction of emission from deforestation and forest degradation.

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…. progress on ensuring environmental sustainability is slow Progress on ensuring environmental sustainability is slow and sometimes negative:

(a) Access of people to safe drinking water has slightly improved from 64 per cent in 1990 to 68 per cent in 2014, which is far below the target of 82 per cent by 2015.

(b) There is slight progress on the use of improved sanitation services from 33 per cent in 1990 to 42 per cent in 2009. The results of the MICS 20014 show 32.9 per cent access to improved sanitation for the sample as a whole, which is less than the national average for 2009.

(c) The forests cover in the Sudan has declined to about 10 per cent in 2015: down from 36 per cent in 1990 and 29.4 in 2010. This decline is due to the secession of South Sudan as well as deforestation, which increased from 0.74 per cent to 2.46 per cent annually.

(d) Green House Gas (GHG) emissions have increased from 72014Gg of carbon dioxide-equivalent (CO2e) in 1995 to 77650Gg CO2ein 2000: 8 per cent increase in 5 years. Though low, this change is due to increase in emission from agriculture, energy and municipal waste.

(e) The stock of fish resources has declined by 70 per cent after secession of Southern Sudan.

These outcomes are due to inefficiencies in the institutional structures, shortage of skills and financial resources, and the negative impacts of the sanctions, the debt burden and the secession of South Sudan. Most of the environmental sectors, particularly water, sanitation and forestry, are functioning at low level of efficiency because of technological shortages and low levels of skills partly caused by the sanctions. TheGoS is planning to increase productivity and efficiency in the environmental sectors, and to improve coordination and harmonization of laws, policies and actions. The enforcement of environmental laws and legislations, and the implementation of the environmental policies and strategieswill be improved through investment in data collection and research. Data revolution is underway The country is undergoing data revolution, and the markets for data and statistics have experienced immense developments during the MDGs period. The system of statisticsis faced with the challenge of meeting high demand for data as a result ofthe adoption of a liberal free market approach for the management of the economy; implementation of aFederal governance system; introduction of long-term strategic planning to year 2031; and the peace processes, which require data for the distribution of wealth and resources. The high demand for statistics has been addressed through adopting a strategic approach for the development of a National Statistics System (NSS) at all levels, and implementing

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aNational Strategy for the Development of Statistics (2012-2016). In May 2011 the GoS launched a high-tech civil registry system targeting all people in the country. The system has covered advanced registration methods of vital events and bio-data including fingerprints. The registry is free of charge and it has led to granting of a unique national identification number, which is a pre-requisite for the issuance of legal documents such as digital passport and driving license. The system includes a registry communication network that has been established throughout the country. Civil registration has become a common culture in the country. This is evidenced in increasing coverage of birth registration from 24 per cent in 1994 to 59per cent in 2010: more than double in 14 years. The GoS is currently preparing for the 6th Population and Housing Census to be undertaken in 2018. This census will be the first to be conducted after secession of South Sudan.

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The MDGs Framework The United Nations have adopted the Millennium Declaration and the MDGs at the Millennium Summit8 in 2000 as a framework for measuring progress on the development agenda. Since then the MDGs have been quite influential in directing the attention of leaders and policy makers globally and at the regional and national levels to the importance of development outcomes and results in the areas of eradicating extreme poverty and hunger (MDG1), empowering peoplethrough improving education(MDG1), health(MDG4, MDG5, and MDG6), and through promoting gender equality and empowering women (MDG3),ensuring environmental sustainability (MDG7) and developing a global partnership for development (MDG8). The attainment of these eight goals by 2015 has been monitored through a set of 21 quantitative targets and 60 indicators disaggregated by sex and place of residencerural/urban (See Annex 1 for the official list of the MDGs). The MDGs framework is a monitoring tool for measuring progress on a selective set of the development agenda. Countries have used this framework for measuring how fartheyarefrom achieving the targets, more than how far they have progressed from the initial conditions in 1990, which is the reference year for the MDGs. There is a difference between measuring progress and measuring performance, which is that more investments are needed if the initial development conditions in 1990 were low than if they were high.Based on this monitoring approach, African countries were found to be among the top performers on the MDGs9. In fact, measuring progress towards the achievement of the MDGs, and measuring progress on improving the welfare of people are two different matters. Since development is for people, progress on their welfare, no matter how it is measured, is the fundamental goal of national development policies and strategies. Therefore, it is important to also adopt a performance approach to monitor progress on the development agenda, to identify the areas where progress has been made, and the gaps where interventions are needed. Besides reallocation of resources, this approach will also help in

8The Millennium Summit adopted the Millennium Declaration on 8 September 2000. The Summit considered freedom, equality, solidarity, tolerance, respect of nature and shared responsibility, as essential fundamental values for international relations. 9UNECA, AU, AfDB and UNDP, (2014), MDG 2014 Report, Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, Analysis of the Common Africa Position on the Post-2015 Development Agenda.

Box 1: MDGs framework “The MDGs framework has provided focus for priority setting in national and international development policies. Its simplicity, transparency and multi-dimensionality helped rally broad support for the goals and their achievement, and the emphasis on human development shifted policy attention well beyond the economic growth objectives that dominated previous agendas.” UN System Task Team on the Post-2015 UN Development Agenda 2012 Realizing the Future We Want for All Report to the Secretary-General

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retargeting and redirecting public and private investments, and better harnessing development partnership for the achievement of national development priorities. Besides its use as a monitoring tool, countries have used the MDGs framework for setting national development priorities, conducting research and collecting data and improving the accuracy and quality of development indicators. These activities have widened the scope and space of development policy beyond the narrow confines of economictargets (Box 2). They have also broadened the spectrum of resource mobilization strategies and partnerships for the achievement of the MDGs by 2015, which is evidenced in the rapid increase in the mobilization of domestic resources, foreign direct investment and south-south partnerships. Despite the progress that has been made on the MDGs, much of the development agendaare unfinished. Moreover, the MDGs framework has been criticized for downplaying the role of some important pillars of development policy, such as peace and security, sustainability of the environment, inclusivity of social development, institutional development and governance, and deficits in human rights and demographics of the people. These are often cited among the reasons behind slow and/or lack of progress on the development agenda. Particularly, reduction of poverty, improvement of health, empowerment of women, and environmental sustainability are all influenced by an array of socio-economic factors. For these and other reasons, the United Nations General Assembly Resolution 65/1 of 22 September 2010 requested the Secretary-General10 to make recommendations for advancing the development agenda beyond 2015. Also, it called for national ownership and leadership of development as a main determinant of progress on the MDGs, and for countries to design development strategies that suit their situations, and on the UN and development actors to support these strategies. Taking note of the lessons learned from the MDGs, the General Assemblyendorsed a wide range of policy interventions and approacheson adopting a forwardlooking macroeconomic policy approach, implementing policies and measures that focus on the poor, improving capacity to deliver quality services, respecting human rights, promoting south-south and triangular cooperation, among others. These interventions and approacheswill be integrated in the SDGs, which will replace the MDGs framework. At this turning point in the history of the development agenda, it is important to take stock of what has been achieved on the MDGs in the Sudan, and to prepare for the SDGs to year

10 United Nations General Assembly (2010) Resolution 65/1, Keeping the promise: united to achieve the Millennium Development Goals

Box 2: National ownership of the MDGs “We resolve to promote and strengthen national ownership and leadership of development as a key determinant of progress in achieving the Millennium Development Goals, with each country taking the primary responsibility for its own development. We encourage all countries to continue to design, implement and monitor development strategies tailored to their specific situations, including through broad consultations and participation of all relevant stakeholders, as appropriate for each national context. We call on the United Nations system and other development actors to support the design and implementation of these strategies, at the request of Member States United Nations General Assembly (2010) Resolution 65/1, keeping the promise: united to achieve the Millennium Development Goals

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2030.

Methodology and Process This report is based on the structure and conceptual framework of the MDGs, which proposes measurement of the progress on development through 21 quantitative targets and 60 indicators (See Annex 1) linked to 8MDGs. The analyses are based onNational Baseline Household Survey 2009 (NBHS 2009), the Sudan Household Health Survey 2010 (SHHS 2010), the Sudan Labor Force Survey 2011 (SLFS 2011), and the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey 2014 (MICS 2014). The Central Bureau of Statistics11 has carried the MICS 2014 surveyin 18 States in collaboration with the Ministry of Health. One of the main objectives of the survey is to measure the trend towards achievement of the MDGs12 at the national and State levels. The report provides analyses of the indicators by State, and where data are available, by sex and place of residence: rural-urban. These analyses highlight variations and gaps in the MDGs State-by-State and in rural and urban areas, and by sex. Also, they provide information on the efforts and interventions needed to accelerate progress on the development agenda. The MICS does not cover all MDGs indicators. Therefore, the missing indicators have been collected from administrative records in line ministries and departments, and in some instances from credible international sources on the MDG. There are some risks, including the risk of compromising the quality of the report because of questions related to the accuracy and timing of the indicators. Also, there is possibility of missing some developments in data and statistics in the country, such as improvements in the population register and in the registration of births. This has been covered in the section on data for development. The MDGs framework has been used for the collection of additional information on efforts and performance measures:

(a) Institutional structure, including institutions, policies and legislations (b) Programs and strategies, including human and financial resources, their main

sources, operational research undertaken, and the factors of success or failure in the implementation of the operational activities

(c) Development partnerships by name, roles and responsibilities and the sources of funding in cash and kind

(d) Targets and indicators (e) Monitoring and evaluation

11The survey was technically supported by UNICEF, and was funded by UNICEF, WHO, UNFPA, and DfID. 12 For more information on other objectives please refer to Central Bureau of Statistics, UNICEF Sudan, 2014, Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey 2014 of fieldwork, key Findings, Khartoum: UNICEF and Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS).

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These performance measures have been gathered through two related processes:

(a) A questionnaire administered officially to the line ministries and departments related to each of the MDGs. Obviously, each goal involves more than one Government institution and department, and several partners

(b) Fivethematic working groupsbased on the following MDGs clusters:

1) Poverty, employment, food and nutrition, hunger (MDG1) 2) Education, women’s empowerment and gender, (MDG2, MDG3) 3) Health, including child health, maternal health, reproductive health,

HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases (MDG4, MDG5, MDG6) 4) Environment, including forestry, biodiversity, climate change, access to safe

drinking water, sanitation, and slums (MDG7) 5) Partnerships (MDG8)

Thematic Working Groups Thematic Working Group Line Ministries and Departments

Poverty, employment, food and nutrition, hunger (MDG1)

1. Poverty unit - Ministry of Welfare and Social Security 2. Poverty unit - Ministries of Finance and National Economy 3. Department of Labor 4. Food Security Administration

Education, women’s empowerment and gender, and (MDG2, MDG3)

1. Planning Unit- Ministry of education 2. Ministry of Youth and Sports 3. Women and Family Unit - Ministry of Welfare and Social

Security 4. Women and Family Unit- Ministry of Welfare and Social

Security Health, including child health, maternal health, reproductive health, HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases (MDG4, MDG5, MDG6)

1. Reproductive Health Unit – Ministry of Health 2. Diseases Unit – Ministry of Health 3. National Council for Child Care 4. National HIV/AIDS Program

Environment, forestry, biodiversity, climate change, access to safe drinking water, sanitation, and slums (MDG7)

1. Ministry of Environment, Natural Resource and Physical Development :

- Higher council for Environment and Natural Resource

- National Metrological Authority - National council for Physical Development - Environmental Affairs Department

2. Ministry of Livestock, Fisheries and Rangeland (fisheries and Aquatic lives Department)

3. Ministry of Water Resource & Irrigation and Electricity (Water and Sanitation unit)

4. Forest National Corporation 5. National Wild Life Authority 6. Central Bureau of Statistic

Partnerships Ministry of Foreign Affairs, a. Central Bureau of Statistics played a cross cutting role on the provision of data and indicators b. The National Population Council provided support to the thematic working groups

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Policy Environment The achievement of the goals and targets of development cannot be meaningfully measured or understood without considering the policy environment in the Sudan. The country has experienced unusual circumstances and events (see figure 1)since 2000 when the MDGs were approved by the Millennium Summit in New York.Impressive efforts have been made by the GoStoendconflict, achieve peace andinvestindevelopment, which are important enablers formaking rapid progress on the MDGs in the country.However, the secession of the south, emergence of conflicts in Darfor, South Kordofan and Blue Nile States, and economic sanctionsand the debt burden are major constraints for the achievement of the MDGs in the country.

Secession of the South Despite its upper hand in the conflict in the south of the country, the GoS decided to go for peace. Knowing that war cannot solve the problems the Sudan has faced since independence in 1956; the GoShave entered,in 2002,into peace talks with the SPLA/M rebels. It was a courageous butrisky movethat have culminated into a Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and establishment of an interim constitution and a unity Government in 2005. Eventually the people of the south opted for secession13and South Sudan became a country in July 9, 2011. This was a turning point in the history of Sudan, and was the final step of the six-year CPA that was signed in Nairobi in 2005-three years after the MDGs were adopted at the Millennium Summit.

The secession of South Sudan resulted into significant changes in the sources of wealth and economic growth, inflation and unemployment rate, as well as in the population size and composition, and in the allocation of natural resources particularly land, water and forests. Oil revenues, which contributed about 80 per cent of exports revenue and 30 per cent of total Government revenues, sharply declined. Consequently, GDP growth declined to about 0.4 per cent in 2011 and 1.5per cent in 2012, down from 6.5per cent in 2010 and

13 A referendum was held from 9 to 15 January 2011, with 98.83% voted for independence.

Box 3: Presidential statements “Today we received these results and we accept and welcome these results because they represent the will of the southern people,” “But we're not going to mourn. I repeat what I have said before: We will go to the south to celebrate with them.” "Secession is not the end of history. It is a new beginning” "We are committed to the links between the north and the south, and we are committed to good relations based on co-operation." From President Omar Al Bashir speeches on the referendum and secession of southern Sudan

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4.5per cent in 2009. The current account deficit rapidly climbed to US$ 4.5 billion and US$ 5.3 billion in 2011 and 2012, respectively, compared to US$ 2.6 billion in 2010. These economic shocks were accompanied with deterioration in the value of the Sudanese Pound against foreign currencies, and increase in the inflation and unemployment rates. However, per capita income has risen to US$ 1984.9 and US$ 2555.1 in 2011 and 2012, respectively, due to reduction of people from 41.3 million to 33.6 million after secession of the south. Figure 1: Events related to the achievement of the MDGs in the Sudan

Undoubtedly all these conditions impacted on the living standards of the people of the Sudan, and on the achievement of the MDGs in the country. In order to mitigate the negative impacts of the secession of the south, the Government adopted, in February 2011, a 3-year Economic Recovery Program (2011-2013) for stabilizing the economy, restructuring the Government budget, increasing the productivity of the production sectors, reducing poverty and containing the rising inflation and unemployment rates. Soon after secession,war in South Sudan erupted on the evening of 15th December and it spread throughout the country. The war has impacted on the implementation of cooperation agreements between the two countries. Oil flow through infrastructure in the Sudan, and trade flow from the Sudan to South Sudan have been seriously affected by the conflict in South Sudan.Thousands of Southern Sudanese fled to the Sudan for food and shelter14, and in some areas in the White Nile, West Kordofan and South KordofanStatesthey outnumbered the local inhabitants and their needs exceeded the capacity of the local communities.

Conflicts

14According to UNHCR 31,000 South Sudanese refugees have crossed into White Nile, West Kordofan and South Kordofan

bringing the total number of arrivals d to 65,055 since the start of 2015.

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The Government’s unlimited support and commitment to peace have been met with eruption of conflict in Darforin 2003. Fueled by external political forces, the conflict in Darforcaused considerable loss of wealth and lives, and displaced people internally and internationally. Determined to achieve peace and stability, the GoS and Darfor rebels entered into a series of peace negotiations in Abuja (2006) and Doha (2011). The Doha Peace Agreement (DPA 2011) provided for a regional authority with both legislative and executive functions, and an administrative structure that includes 5 DarforStates. This reflects considerable devolution of power and establishment of a broad development management system in Darfor, which involves allocation of both human and financial resources that can bring peace and development to the people of Darfor15. At the time when the GoS signed the DPA 2011, conflict erupted in South Kordofan in June 2011, and it spread to the Blue Nile in September 2011. Supported by foreign powers, this conflict was intended to derail the peace process in Darfor and to distract the GoS efforts toward peace and development in the country. The war disrupted the life of civilians in these two areas, as thousands of them became internally displaced and some others moved across the borders to Ethiopia and Southern Sudan. The displacement of people triggered high demand for basic needs such as food, shelter, water and health services, most of which have been met throughofficial delivery systems and humanitarian assistance in areas under Government control.People in areas under repels’ controlhavelived in dire situation, and many of them have moved to Government controlled areas.

15This agreement was signed by the GoS and the Liberation and Justice Movement on July 2014, two months after the All Darfor

Stakeholders Conference was held in May 2011, in Doha, Qatar. The agreement is now the framework for the comprehensive peace process in Darfor

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MajorPopulationShifts and Future Prospects

Historically, the Sudan has experienced majorpopulation shifts that are intricately linked to its development policies and prospects.A mega population shift resulted from the implementation of grand agriculture development projectsduring the colonial eraand post independence period. Abundant water and fertile land were the main natural resources that supported the introduction of cash crops,agriculturemechanizationand commercialization in the Sudan. The country was in shortage of the manpower requirements of the large-scale agriculture operations in the irrigated and mechanized rain-fed agriculture areas. Therefore,the agricultural development policies were accompanied with policies to attract more people to theseareasand to encourage population settlements in labour villages and camps. Consequently, the population size increased from about 2 million16 in 1900 to about 7.5 (excluding south Sudan17) at independence in 1956, as a result of direct and indirect migration policies and high fertility. The transformation from nomadic to sedentary lifeand the improvement in income and standard of living have led to an increase in fertility.Likewise, the increase in formal employment in agriculture and non-agriculture sectors has led to city growth and to the expansion of health and education services to the people. These developments continued into the post colonial period when the national Governments embraced the colonial agriculture development policies, with some minor modifications, and invested in human resources development, particularly education, health and skills. Fertility continued to increase and mortality improved slowly. Both forces of demographic change resulted into rapid increase in population size to 11.3 million in 1973, 15.3 million in 1983, 21.3 million 16According to M. W. Daly, 1986, Empire on the Nile The Anglo-Egyptian Sudan 1898-1934 Cambridge University Press 17 According to the results of the population and housing census, 1956

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in 1993, and to 30.9 million in 2008, according to the population and housing censuses18for the same years. Population increased very rapidly in Khartoum, Central and Darfor regions as shown chart 1. Currently the major demographic trends are rapid urbanization, and rapid growth of youth and working age populations. The age structure is overwhelmingly youthful as children below age 15 are more numerous than other functional age groups (See chart 2). The youthful age structure is due to high total fertility rates19 of about 6.5 children per woman in 1983 and 6.5 in 1993. Fertility declined slightly to 5.5, according to the 2008 census results. The working age adults aged 25 to 64 are expected to gradually increase and to eventually surpass other functional age groups after 2022 when the ratio of working age adults to children below age 15 breakeven 1:1 (See chart 2). By 2030, the year for the achievement of the SDGs, Sudan will have more working age adults (23 million) than children (20 million) and youth aged 15 to 24 (11 million).By 2075 Sudan will have two working age persons for every one child aged below 15. This will probably increase to 3:1 by 2100. The long period of exponential growth of the working age population provides immense opportunities for development transformation and economic growth in the country. Especially, most of them have the potential to become producers of goods and services and active participants in the labour force. There is also high potential for expanding the markets for goods, services, labour and finance, all of which require formalization of the economy. They also have high propensity to migrate and seek decent living somewhere else in the world. Therefore, Government policies for formalization of the economy must be in place as early as possible so as to harness the resource potentials of the expected exponential increase in the working age population aged 25 to 64. The expected stagnation in the absolute number of children and youth by year 2060 and beyond (see chart 2) indicates negligible growth of these functional age groups. This suggests fertility stagnation at around 3 children per woman, combined with improved

18 These numbers are census results excluding southern Sudan 19According to the Sudan Demographic Health Survey (1989-1990) and the National Safe Motherhood Survey 1999

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health and survival of children and youth. Hopefully by then maternal and child health will be much improved. Stability in the numbers of children and youth will provide an opportunity for increasing intake and enrolment in primary and secondary education, and expanding tertiary education and vocational training. Older persons aged 65 or more will increase from 1 million in 2015 to 2 million in 2030 to 9 million in 2075 and further to 15 million in 2100: almost as numerous as the youth (16 million See chart 2). This indicates an increase in the old age dependency ratio, which has to be catered for through pensions and the provision of health care services. Also the medical needs of older persons will have to be met through health strategies for combating non-communicable diseases, and disabilities. Institutional structures, policies and legislation on ageing and disability that are already in place need to be implemented.

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Development Policy Environment The reference year (1990) for the MDGs was a turning point in the history of development policy in the Sudan, during which the GoS adopted a liberal free market approach for the management of the economy. This practically means reducing the Government grip of the public sector and creating more policy space for private business. The liberal free market approach was accompanied with deliberate policies on peace, which culminated into the peace agreements mentioned before. For the Government, the peace and security agenda and the development agenda must go hand-in-hand for the transformation of the country. For the implementation of the liberal free market approach, the Government adopted a Tripartite Economic Rescue Program (1991-1993), which included privatization of public enterprises in the communication, agriculture and industrial sectors.The main thrust of the policy was to free the productive resources and increase economic efficiency across all sectors. Consequently, the private sector began to flourish, as liberalization resulted into tremendous business opportunities. This period also witnessed a revolution in the high education systemthat resulted into significant increase in the number of institutions and students in all States, and into changes in the curricula. Also, the Government started to regain the areas that were under rebel control in the South. The Tripartite Program has led to the preparation of aComprehensive National Strategy (CNS1992-2001), through a participatory process that has established the base for long-term strategic planning in the country. TheCNShave provided policy guidance for infrastructure development, attracting foreign direct investment, and increasing economic growth from negative 5.5 per cent in 1990 to 10.8 per cent in 2001. The high economic growth is attributed primarily to the increasing contribution of oil production to the Gross Domestic Product and national income. The GoShave endorsed the Millennium Declaration in 2000 and adopted the MDGs as a framework for national development strategies. It has incorporated the MDGs in the CPAin 2005 and in the JAM for reconstruction, rehabilitation and development during the transitional period (2005-2011). Therefore, the MDGs have provided a reference and

Box 5: Good practices. Involvement of people in planning “The Republic of the Sudan has placed a lot of emphasis on the involvement of the people in design and implementation of the national development policies. Beginning from national twenty five years strategy, people are usually consulted in the design of the national development policies. According to the promulgated constitution 2005 decentralization policy has been a deliberate move to devolve power to the local government level.” United Nations Economic and Social Council Development Strategies that Work. Country experiences presented at the ECOSOC Annual Ministerial Review.

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vision for economic and social development, and for the implementation of the national development priorities in the Sudan. Besides poverty eradication, equitable distribution of wealth, redressing income inequality and achieving decent standard of living for all people, the Interim National Constitution of 2005 considered the MDGs as one of the overarching aims of economic development in the country. Also the Quarter Century Strategy (2007-2032), the Five-year National Development Plans(2007-2011, and 2012-2016) and the Five-year Program for Economic Reform 2015-2019 have incorporated the MDGs for their achievement in the country. These strategic planning frameworks aim to achieve the vision of:Building of a United, Safe, Peaceful and Developed Sudanese Nationthrough implementation of targeted and coordinated policies to achieve results in the following areas:

(a) Promote sustainable economic development by encouraging a competitive private sector, supporting key infrastructure and agriculture projects and building a knowledge-based economy;

(b) Sustain peace and stability through continued implementation of the CPA, Doha

Peace Agreement (DPA) and East Sudan Peace Agreement (ESPA), whilst safeguarding national sovereignty and security, continuing to build consensus and reconciliation, and maintaining good relations with the international community based on mutual interests;

(c) Reduce poverty and make progress towards achieving the Millennium

Development Goals (MDGs) by expanding the provision of basic services in health, education, water and sanitation, with a particular emphasis on quick impact projects for returnees and war affected groups;

(d) Strengthen public accountability, Good Governance and the Rule of Law;

(e) Build capacity of public institutions and civil society at State and Local levels and

strengthen the social fabric of the Nation.

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National Consultations on the Post-2015 Development Agenda The GoShave organized national consultations on the MDGs and on the post-2015 development agenda. These national consultations have been led by the NPC and have been supported by the UNDP. The consultationson post 2015 development agenda have covered 6 Sates: River Nile, South Darfor, White Nile, Kassala, Gadarif and Khartoum. Following a National Consultation Workshop held in Khartoum on 25 August 2013, further consultations have been conducted with 5States, including, South Kordofan, Sinnar, Red Sea, North Darfor and Blue Nile. These consultations have provided opportunities for State officials to appreciate the Post-2015 Development Agenda, and to identifying the future development objectives from their own perspectives. In order to ensure the role of the non-State actors, the NPC have organized, on 31 July 2013 in Khartoum, a national workshop for the CSOsincluding the private sector. The national consultations have led to the preparation of a national consultation paper on the Post 2015 Development Agenda. The paper explains the Government’s position, which includes the following:

(a) The GoS embraces the outcomes of the regional and global consultations on the Post 2015 Development Agenda. Sudan’s position on these agenda is consistent with that of the African Union and the League of Arab States, and is supportive to the LDCs. The national consultations on these agenda have revealed the prominence of poverty, peace and security, education, food security in the national development priorities and strategies to year 2031.

(b) Sudan has adopted the MDGs, on some of which (goals 2, 3 and 6)progress has been made. The GoS is rigorously addressing poverty, health and environmental concerns, all of which feature prominently in development policy in the Sudan. Therefore, the future development framework will aim to accelerate progress towards the MDG targets that have not yet been achieved.

(c) Sudan underscoresthe importance of human rights, equity, democracy and governance and the rule of law for human welfare and for addressing development issues. While making significant progress on these areas, the GoSbelieves that enactment and implementation of related activities have challenged progress on the MDGs. Therefore, the GoS will accelerate the enactment of laws and legislations, and will focus on the implementation of institutional and development activities on human rights, equity, democracy, governance and the rule of law.

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(d) As a post conflict country, Sudan values highly its knowledge and experience on peace negotiations and peace building, and emphasizes the importance of peace and stability for sustainable development and regional integration.

(e) Sudan has been undergoing political, economic and social transformations, which have greatly challenged the development activities in the country. Limited development assistance, sanctions and debt are among the impediments that have aggravated the situation. The international community must come up with meaningful and fair-to-all initiatives to ensure continued unconditional development assistance and FDI flows to developing countries especially to the LDCs and countries in post conflict situations.

(f) The GoS underscores country ownership of the post 2015 development agenda. Particularly, the central role of Government in providing services and ensuring that development is people-centered and equitable. Global partnership comes as complementary,but also a necessary condition to support national efforts by Government, private sector and CSOs.

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Future Economic and Social Development Prospects The GoS adopted a Three-year Program (2012-2014) for absorbing the negative economic shocks and addressing the social repercussions of the secession. More specifically, the Programhas been designed to deal with the negative impacts on economic growth and to keep it within 3.2% in the first year, and a rate of inflation within 17 per cent. Unfortunately, these targets were not achieved. The reported inflations rates were 35.6 per cent, 36.5 per cent and 36.9 per cent for years 2012, 2013, and 2014, respectively. However, the inflation rate declined dramatically to 20.3 per cent during the first half of 2015. During the Program period the economy was expected to stabilize and adjust the disequilibrium in the trade balance and the balance of payment. Other policy measures include increasing the contribution of micro finance to achieving economic and social development, and providing finance to women graduates and youth projects. A Five-year Program for Economic Reform (2015-2019) has followed the Three-year Program, with the aim to achieve high, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, and to

realize results in the five areas above-mentioned. The overall vision of the program is to achieve rapid increase in the Gross Domestic Product and exports, and toimprove the living conditions of all people through adopting a wide range of economic policies and tax

Box 6: Development Policy Targets of the Five-year Program for Economic Reform 2015-2019 (a) High, inclusive, sustainable and employment-friendly economic growth of 6.6% in 2016 increasing to

7.1% by 2019 (b) Increase the investment to GDP ratio from 19% in 2019 to 23% in 2019 (c) Increase the volume of investment for the five-year program from SDG121.8 billion in 2015 to

SDG316.6 billion in 2019, with 17% for the public sector and 83% for the private sector (d) Increase domestic savings from 8.3% of GDP to 22% in 2019 (e) Reduce the inflation rate to 8% in 2019 (f) Increase per capita income from SDG16637 in 2015 to SDG31905 in 2019 (g) Increase industrial production from SDG142 billion in 2015 to SDG302 billion in 2019 (h) Increase the production of crude oil from 55 million barrels in 2015 to 65 million barrels in 2019 (i) Increase the production of Gold from 76 ton in 2015 to 103 ton in 2019. Increase the production of

other minerals such as chrome, iron, copper, manganese and salt. (j) Increase agriculture production (both crop and animal), agriculture industries and food production (k) Increase industrial and agriculture experts, and the overall volume of foreign trade (l) Increase infrastructure, particularly the production of electricity, expansion of roads, bridges and

transportation systems, and the information and telecommunication systems.

Source: Five-year Program for Economic Reform 2015-2019, Ministry of Finance and National Economy

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reforms for attaining the targets shown in box6: The GoS is planning to implement development policy measures during the economic reform period 2015-2019, which will lead to the achievement of the unfinished MDGs (see table 1). The policy measures indicate how the GoS is planning to address social development issues in the country, with focus on improving the living conditions of people through policies, actions and prudent economic and social activities and projects. The economic reform program covers social development interventions on poverty, education, maternal and child health, and combating of diseases such as malaria and bilharzias. On ensuring environmental sustainability, the program period will witness ambitious developments in the provision of safe drinking water and sanitary services to people in rural and urban areas. Undoubtedly, implementation of these activities will improve the health and living conditions of people, and will contribute to productivity, development and economic growth.

Table 1 Five-year Program for Economic Reform 2015-2019

Targets and Development PoliciesRelated to the MDGs

Targets Development policy measures

MDG1 Eradicate Extreme Poverty and Hunger

Reduce poverty from 46.5% to less than 35% by the end of the program in 2019

Reduce the unemployment rate from 20% in 2015 to less than 15% in 2019

Increase the vertical and horizontal coverage of Zakat from 1.2 billion in 2015 to 3 billion in 2019

Support capacity development of the Zakat House to increase from 80% to 90% of the total estimated Zakat resources, and decentralize Zakat collection

Complete the coverage of 2.5 million poor families through the social protection fund, and uplift 500,000 families from poverty by 2019

Increase the ceiling for microfinance from 5% to 12% by the end of the program

Increase the capital of the Savings and Social Development Banks from SDG130 million in 2015 to SDG300 million in 2019

Increase payments for the poor and destitute from 70% in 2015 to 75% in 2019

Prepare and implement national strategies for poverty reduction

Deal with unemployment as a major issue with political, economic and social dimensions, and consider it at the forefront of the State priorities.

Provide direct financial support to poor families

Encourage and empower community based organizations working in social solidarity to expand their activities

Implement and monitor the Microfinance Strategy approved by the High Council for Micro Finance

Spread microfinance institutions in localities and States, and at the national level

Promote national NGOs to assume their roles in social development

Strengthen and expand the role ofthesocial protection networks and mechanisms to provide social protection to the targeted population groups. These networks and mechanisms include:

o High council for wages o National Pensions Fund o National Fund for Social Insurance o Zakat House o Endowments o National Fund for Student’s Support o National Fund for Health Insurance o National Fund for Public Housing o Free Treatment of Children in Medical

Emergency Units

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o Free treatment for Kidney Patients o Al Martyr Organization o Corporate Social Responsibility o Direct Financial Support to Poor Families

MDG2 Achieve Universal Primary Education

Ensure quality and free basic education for all by 2019

Provide school health services, including toilets and sanitation, to all basic education schools in the States

Address malnutrition among students in basic education

Provide free meals for school children

Establish 2000 school rooms by 2019

Provide 800 education grants by 2019

Develop the capacity of 12000 teachers

Increase teacher’s wage

Complete seating for all students

Establish teacher training institutes

Improve school environment through maintenance of buildings and seating of students

Balance education opportunities among the States and by gender

Give priority to children with disabilities and those impacted by conflict and natural catastrophe

Complete the general education framework in context of the Federal system, and promote the education environment

MDG4 Reduce Child Mortality and MDG5 Improve Maternal Health

Reduce under five mortality

Reduce maternal death

Full immunization coverage

Improve maternal health services in rural hospitals, and support food and medication centers at the national and State levels

Provide free medicine for children below age 5

Combat malnutrition among pregnant women and children

MDG6 Combat HIV/AIDS, Malaria and other Diseases

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Increase health insurance coverage from 37% in 2015 to 79% in 2019 through the inclusion of children, mothers, and students, and expanding in the private sector

Free primary health care for all

Provide primary health care to at least 85% of the war affected people

Establish 5 referral hospitals by the end of the program

Provide 80% of the strategic medical supplies for emergencies to the States by the end of the program

Undertake surveys for communicable diseases

Establish information and data bases

Increase health awareness and disseminate health information

Combat malaria, bilharzias and other communicable diseases

Expand preventive health

MDG7 Ensure Environmental Sustainability

Provide 90 liters of water per person daily to urban residents and 25 liters of water daily to rural residents

Establish 1000 underground water stations, 1500 hand pumps and 300 small water stations

Establish 50,000 toilets, and 1200 toilets in schools.

Bridge the gaps in water consumption in urban and rural areas, and ensure water security

Expand drinking water consumption

Resettle displaced persons

Encourage the private sector to invest in drinking water services and sanitation

Facilitate community management of water resources

Promote research on surface and underground water resources, improve water management and rationalize water consumption

Data for Development Data are important for effective development policy. They are needed for planning and implementation of development activities, for monitoring progress and evaluating the outcomes of development, and for designing and implementing strategic interventions. In this context, a civil registration system has been established in the Sudan (see box 7) for the purpose of supporting peace and development policies and activities in the country.

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The establishment of the Federal System in 1994 has led to rapid increase inFederal ministries, State ministries and local Governments. Also the peace process placed a heavy burden on the statistics system to provide accurate data for the allocation of wealth and services. Theseexpansionshave created high demand for data, and resulted into immense pressures on the statistic systems to consolidate the production of data, establish new standards for data collection and fill data gaps. Consequently, the Sudan has addressed the high demand for statistics through adopting a strategic approach for the development of a National Statistics System (NSS) at all levels. This approach is needed for integrating and coordinating the statistics systems in the country, and for mainstreaming these systems into development and planning frameworks. The strategic approach has been used for the preparation of the National Strategy for the Development of Statistics (2012-2016), which provides a framework for strengthening statistical capacity uniformly across the entire system such that each of the sub-systems will be empowered to manage the results and outcomes of development. The Strategy is expected to “serve as an integrated framework within which sub-systems and different stakeholders generate, disseminate and use statistics that are trustworthy, also meet their individual needs and provide a sound basis for national planning and development.”20The strategy will achieve the following objectives:

(a) Strengthen the production of quality and timely statistics in line with the Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics and based on international best practices and guidelines to support national development initiatives and programmes;

(b) Improve coordination and promote integration and collaboration among and between data producers and users;

(c) Strengthen national capacity to produce, analyze and use reliable statistics generated by an integrated NSS; and

(d) Ensure long-term sustainability of the NSS by securing funding for priority data production, analysis, and dissemination.

20Central Bureau of Statistics National Strategy for the Development of Statistics (NSDS) in Sudan(2012-2016)

Box 7: Best practice oncivil registration system

In May 2011 the GoS launched a high-tech civil registry system targeting all people in the country. The system is administered by the Ministry of Interior and it covers advanced registration methods of vital events and bio-data including finger prints. The registry is free of charge and it leads to granting of a unique national identification number, which is a pre-requisite for the issuance of a new digital passport, driving license, etc.The system includes a registry communication network that has been established throughout the country.

Civil registration has become a common culture in the country. This is evidenced in increasing coverage of birth registration from 24% in 1994 to 59% in 2010: more than double in 14 years.

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MDG1: Eradicate Extreme Poverty and Hunger “The overarching aims of economic development shall be eradication of poverty, attainment of the Millennium Development Goals, guaranteeing the equitable distribution of wealth, redressing imbalances of income and achieving a decent standard of life for all citizens.” Interim National Constitution of the Republic of the Sudan 2005

Addressing poverty and attaining the MDGs are constitutional commitments, which also include the achievement of equality in the distribution of wealth and income. The MDGs

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framework calls for the eradication of extreme poverty and hunger through three targets on (a) halving, between 1990 and 2015, the number of people whose income is less than US 1 a day, (b) achieving full and productive employment and decent work for all, including women and young people, and (c) halving, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger. Indicators related to the achievement of these three targets in the Sudan are shown below:

MDG1 Indictors 2000 2009 2015

The proportion of the population below the poverty line (%) 46.5

Poverty gap ratio (%) 16.2

Share of poorest quintile in national consumption (%) 6.2

GDP per person employed (constant 1990 PPP $) 8216* 11808*(2010)

Employment to population ratio -15 years and above both sexes (%) 44* 41.4 41.1 (2011)

Employment to population ratio -15 years and above males (%) 61.4 (2011)

Employment to population ratio -15 years and above females (%) 19.6 (2011)

Proportion of employed population below poverty line 42.5

Proportion of own account and family workers in total employment (%)

48.6 47.1 (2011)

Prevalence of underweight children under 5 years of age (%) 38* 32.2 (2010) 33.0 (2014) Note: figures in bracket indicate year * Source: World Development Indicators

Poverty is a multidimensional challenge, and its eradication is a national priority for the GoS at both the Federal and State levels, and is an issue of high concern for parliamentarians and local authorities. The most recent data on poverty have been collected through the National Baseline Household Survey 2009 (NBHS-2009), which provides some of the poverty measures used for analyses in this report21. Other sources of data used for analyses here are the SLFS 2011, which includes data on employment and decent work, and the MICS 2014, which provides data on nutrition and food security.

Income Poverty The NBHS-2009 measures poverty in terms of monthly consumption per person of a basket of food and non-food items. The national poverty line (NPL) has been determined at SDG114, based on which the poverty incidence22has been estimated at 46.5 per cent23, which is way-off the rate for its neighbors: Ethiopia 29.6 per cent for 2010, Uganda 24.5 per cent for 2009 and 19.5 per cent for 2012, and Egypt 25.2 per cent for 2011. Roughly one out of every two persons falls under the poverty line.The poverty gap ratio, which measures the average consumption deficit from the poverty line, is 16.2 per cent. This indicates the average monthly amount of financial resources (SDG 40) that are needed to uplift a poor person above the poverty line.

21 The NBHS-2009 was the third. The first survey was conducted in 1967 and the second in 1978. A fourth survey is currently underway and its results will not be available for analyses in this report. 22 The NPL is highly sensitive to the consumer price index. An increase in the consumer price index (CPI) will lead to an increase in the NPL. Therefore, the NPL should be adjusted for changes in the CPI. For example the NPL for 2012 should be around SDG206. 23 According to the UN MDGs report 2015, more than 40 per cent of the population in sub-Saharan Africa still lives in extreme poverty in 2015.

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Undoubtedly, povertyis pervasive and its incidence varies significantly by State and place of residence (rural-urban). According to the NBHS 2009, the incidence of poverty in rural areas is high (57.6%) and more than twice the urban areas (26.5%): rural areas bear the heaviest burden of poverty in the country. There are wide variations of poverty incidence by State ranging between 26 per cent for Khartoum, where poverty is lowest, and69.4 per cent for North Darfor, where poverty is highest. The poverty incidence in the conflict States of Darfor, Southern Kordofan and the Blue Nile is much higher than the national average (see chart 3). Also the poverty incidence is high in some of the non-conflict States such as Northern Kordofan and Gadarif, where the great majority of people live in rural areas. The poverty incidence is lower than the national average in six States (Khartoum, Nile, Northern, KassalaGezira and Sinnar). High and varying poverty incidence by State and place of residence reflects low and highly variable income and consumption levels. Chart 4 shows the average consumption per person per month (ACPM) for the poor (ACPM-Poor) and non-poor (ACPM Non-Poor) compared to the national poverty line (NPL). For the country as whole the ACPM-poor is SDG74, which is SDG40 below the NPL. This is the average poverty gap, which is the monthly amount of money that is needed to lift a poor person from the poverty trap.

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The poverty gap varies by State, with the smallest gap reported for Khartoum (SDG28), Gezira (SDG 30), Nile (SDG 31) and Northern (SDG33) States. The largest poverty gap has been reported for the Red Sea (SDG49), North Kordofan(SDG49), Kassala (SDG 46), South Darfor (SDG 46) and North Darfor (SDG45). These variations by States have not been adjusted for differences in the cost of living, which is higher for Khartoum than other States, and higher in urban than rural areas. However, these differences reflect the

amount of cash transfers that are needed for bridging the poverty gap in each State.

Employment and Decent Work The skills and human capabilities of people to work and earn money for decent living are among the most important means for overcoming poverty. This is encapsulated in the MDG1 target on achieving full and productive employment and decent work for all, including women and young people. This target is monitored by four indicators on (a) growth of GDP per person employed, (b) employment to population ratio, (c) proportion of employed people living below the NPL, and (d) proportion of own account and contributing family workers in total employment. According to SLFS 2011, there were 7.30 million employed persons aged 15 years and above, comprising of 5.6 million males and 1.7 million females. The employment to population ratio (EPR) is 41.1 per cent for people aged 15 and above (61.4 per cent for males, 19.6 per cent for females),20.4 per cent for youth aged 15-24 and 52 per centfor adults aged 25 and above. The significant gender gap in the EPR indicates that much more men than women earn their living through employment. The labor force participation rates are substantially lower for females than for males. On average three out of ten females participate in the labor force, compared to seven out of ten for males. Women

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unemployment is significantly higher than males: up to three times as high as males. These results indicate clear gender inequality in the labor force and employment, whereby women are at disadvantage. The working poor, defined as the people whose income is below the NPL, were estimated at about 2.2 million persons in 2011. This estimation is based on a NPL of 152 after adjusting for the consumer price index. On the other hand, almost half of total employment isvulnerably employed, defined as own account and family workers in proportion to total employment. This proportion was 48.6 per cent in 2009 and 47.1 per cent in 2011.

Food Poverty Food poverty represents 61% (or SDG69) of the 2009 NPL. This is the average monthly expenditure on a basket of food that includes meat, bread,milk, sugar, fruits, among others. The amount of SDG69 represents the food poverty line, which measures the national food threshold – the amount of money that needs to be spent on food for survival. The NBHS-2009 provides information on monthly expenditure per person on food for the poor and non-poor people (see chart 5). For the country as a whole the monthly expenditure on food is about SDG47 for a poor person, which leaves a gap of SDG22 (or 32%) that must be met in order to address food poverty in the country.

Food poverty varies by residence (rural-urban) and State. As expected, the food gap for urban areas is about SDG18 (or 26%), which is lower than for the rural areas (SDG23 or 33%). The poor people in the Northern, Gezira, Khartoum and Nile States have a food gap of about SDG15, which is the amount needed to uplift a poor person from the food

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poverty trap. This is in contrast to the conflict States of Darfor, South Kordofan and Blue Nile, where the food gap amounts to SDG28 or 40.6 per cent.

Food poverty can also be measured through the dietary energy consumption and the depth of hunger among the deprived people. For the country as a whole the average dietary energy consumption among the deprived people is about kcl1451 and the depth of hunger is kcl 309 per person per day. The lowest dietary energy consumption (kcl 1389) has been reported for than White Nile, and the highest (kcl 1536) for the Nile province. Also the depth of hunger seems to slightly vary among the States: the lowest (kcl 249) reported for Gezira and the highest (kcl370) for the Red Sea. These slight variations indicate that the deprived almost equally suffer from low energy consumption and hunger.

Food Security Food security policy is based on increasing productivity and self-sufficiency of cereal crops, especially sorghum, wheat, millet, rice, and maize. The total production and consumption of these crops vary from year24 to year, depending on variations on the amount of rainfall, fluctuations in the size of the cultivated areas and agriculture inputs. In year 2011, which was a good year, the total production was about 5791 thousand metric tons against total consumption of about 5532 thousand metric tons for the same year. There was a surplus of about 259 thousand metric tons in 2011. The total production in 2012 declined by 54 per cent, while the total consumption remained at 5532 thousand metric ton, which resulted in food deficit. The total production of cereal crops increased

24The figures on food security were taken from the annual Food Security Reports for 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, Food Security

Department, Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation

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to 5980 thousand metric tons in 2013 while total consumption increased to 6284, leaving a small deficit estimated at 304 metric ton. In 2014 the deficit climbed to 2935 thousand metric ton primarily because of the fall of total production to 2859 thousand metric ton, while total consumption declined slightly to 5794 thousand metric ton, compared to their levels in 2013. The fluctuations in food production are due to changes in the amount of rainfall.

Household Food Security How households in the Sudan are food secure? The World Food Program (WFP) has developed the Food Consumption Score (FCS) as an indicator for measuring food security of households. According to the WFP, the FCS is “a composite score based on dietary diversity, food frequency, and relative nutritional importance of different food groups.”25 Based on three categories of Food Consumption (FC), Poor FC, borderline FC and acceptable FC, the FCS has been calculated for the Sudan by State and rural urban residence using MICS 2014 data.

The results shown in charts 7 indicate highly variable food security situation in the country. The highest acceptable food consumption is in the River Nile and Northern States, and the lowest is in the States of Central Darfor and North Darfor. Borderline and poor food consumption scores are very high in the Darfor and KordofanStates. These results are consistent with the above-mentioned analyses of the food poverty gap.

25World Food Programme, Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping Branch, 2008, Food consumption analysisCalculation and use of the food consumption score in food securityanalysis. Rome

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The results of the MICS 2014 indicate rural urban differences in food consumption scores only in 8 States: White Nile, Northern Kordofan, Southern Kordofan and the 5 DarforStates (See chart 8). Acceptable level of food consumption is consistently higher in urban than in rural areas. However, urban households access food from markets which leaves them vulnerable to fluctuations in prices and production of food. By contrast, poor and borderline food consumption is highest among rural households in all eight States. But many of these households source cereals from their own production, and when food production is low and food prices are high they suffer the most.

Across the country most households consume cereals, oils/fats, sugar and dried vegetables. There are typical patterns of cereals preferences in the country: millet is popular in Darfor and KordofanStates, wheat is preferred by households in Khartoum, River Nile, Northern, Gezira, Red Sea, Kassala, Sinnar, and Blue Nile States, and sorghum is consumed by all States except Khartoum and Northern States. More than 80 percent of the food consumed by households is obtained from the markets. Heavy reliance on markets raises the question of what household do when food is not enough in the markets or when they do not have money to buy food. The results of the MICS 2014 indicate the following coping strategies that households applied when they face such situations:

(a). Rely on less preferred and less expensive food (b). Eat borrowed food or borrowed money to purchase food (c). Rely on help from friends or relatives (d). Limit portion size at mealtimes (e). Restrict consumption for adults in order for small children to eat

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(f). Reduce number of meals eaten in a day

Nutrition The nutrition status of children under 5 years of age is a good measure of the outcomes of human development. Good nutrition at infancy and early childhood promotes healthy life and reduces both of infant and under-five mortality. By contrast, poor nutrition at infancy and childhood is associated with poverty and food insecurity. The nutrition status of children under 5 years of age is low and needs to be improved, as results from the SHHS 2010 and the MICS 2014 show. Almost one out of every three children is moderately acute underweight. Those who are severely acute underweight constitute about 12.6 per cent in 2010 and 12 per cent in 2014. Moderate acute and severe acute stunting, which is measured by height for age, is highly prevalent among children under 5 years of age. The results of the surveys indicate slight increase in the prevalence of stunting. Likewise, malnutrition is relatively high and needs to be improved. These results indicate the continuation of the poverty challenge among children in the country.

Table2 Nutrition Status of Children Under 5 Years of Age

Classification Status SHHS 2010 (%)

MICS 2014 (%)

Underweight (Weight for age)

Moderate acute (% below -2SD)

32.2 33.0

Severe acute (% below -3 SD)

12.6 12.0

Stunted (Height for Age)

Moderate acute (% below -2 SD)

35.0 38.2


15.7 18.2

Malnutrition (Weight for height)

Moderate acute (% below -2 SD)

16.3 16.3


5.3 4.5

Overweight % Above +2 SD 2.9 3.0

SD = Standard deviation of the median reference population (WHO)

The nutrition status of children varies considerably by State and rural urban residence, as shown in charts 9, 10 and 11. The prevalence of underweight and stunting, moderate acute or sever acute, are lower in urban than rural areas, and is lower in Northern and Khartoum than in other States. The underweight and stunting situation in these two States is much better than the national average for urban areas. The prevalence of moderate acute underweight and stunting is highest among children in Kassala, North Darfor, Central Darfor, East Darfor, and GadarifStates. The situation in these five States is less than the average for rural areas.

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.

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Pro-poor Expenditure

The advent of oil in the economy since 1999 has been accompanied with increase in public expenditures in the Sudan. As a percentage of GDP, public expenditure have precipitously increased and exceeded 25 per cent in 2007. Prior to the secession, a decline in public expenditures already started to emerge, due to the global financial crises, through a remarkable decline in oil receipts. This was followed by the secession of South Sudan in July 2011, which affected public expenditures that declined to around 17 per cent of the GDP in 2011. A package of corrective measures that were implemented in June 2012 and September 2013 averted an economic downturn and started to gradually bring the economic performance back in the path of sustained positive growth. Public expenditures started to recover and increased to 13.8% of GDP in 2013 (see chart 12).

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The Sudan defines pro-poor expenditure as that which give priority to: (a) agriculture and natural resources; (b) infrastructure (roads and rail and irrigation dams); (c) education; (d) health; (e) water; and (f) social welfare (transfers excluding subsidies). This definition of pro-poor expenditures is consistent with the IPRSP and follows its four pillars of governance, reintegration of IDPs, human resource development and economic growth and employment promotion. Based on this definition, data on pro-poor expenditure cover the following sources:

Federal

Current Ministries Ministries of; Agriculture; Animal Wealth; Water Resources; Roads and Bridges; Health; General Education; Higher Education; Social Welfare and Women’s Affairs; Gum Arabic Council; High Council for Environment

Current Centralized expenditures

Government contribution to Social Funds, cash grants to poor families

Development Agriculture sector; (Irrigation/Irrigated, Rain Fed Traditional; Livestock; Research, Agriculture Services, Forestry and Rangelands);Roads; Rail Rehabilitation; Dams (except Merawe); General Education; Higher Education; Health; Social and Administrative Development (selected projects)

States

Current Ministries Ministries of: Agriculture and Livestock; Health; Education; Social Welfare; Engineering Affairs (or Urban Planning)

Localities All localities

Development All Projects

Denominator Federal: Total Public Expenditures (less transfers to States)

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Based on this definition, initial findings show that actual pro-poor expenditure as a per cent of GDP has increased from 4.2 per cent in 2012 to 5.0 per cent in 2014 (see table 3). Nearly half of the total public expenditure is pro-poor, which is a major achievement, given the serious constraints the Sudan faced after the secession of the South in 2011.

Table 3 Pro-poor Expenditure as a % of GDP

2012 2013 2014

B A B A B A

Poverty Reducing Expenditure (Federal+State) Current Poverty Reducing Expenditure

O/W wage expenditure O/W None Wage Expenditure

Development Poverty Reducing Expenditure

6.30 4.18 5.53 4.39 5.26 5.02

3.96 3.03 3.67 2.68 3.64 3.13

2.69 2.32 2.98 2.06 2.78 2.41

1.27 0.71 0.70 0.6 0.86 0.79

2.34 1.15 1.86 1.71 1.62 1.83

Federal Poverty Reducing Expenditure Current Poverty Reducing Expenditure



2.69 1.68 2.67 1.84 2.19 2.17

1.45 1.16 1.82 0.99 1.61 1.38

0.86 0.75 1.51 0.69 1.14 0.94

0.59 0.40 0.31 0.30 0.47 0.44

1.24 0.53 0.85 0.85 0.58 0.79

State Poverty Reducing Expenditure Current Poverty Reducing Expenditure



3.60 2.50 2.87 2.55 3.07 2.85

2.51 1.88 1.86 1.69 2.03 1.81

1.82 1.57 1.46 1.36 1.63 1.46

0.68 0.31 0.39 0.32 0.39 0.35

1.10 0.62 1.01 0.86 1.04 1.04

A= Actual, B= Budgeted

Wages and salaries constitute the largest share of the pro-poor expenditure. This leaves meager resources to meet the running expenses with the consequent result of poor sustainability and maintenance of pro-poor development projects. The actual development poverty-reducing expenditure increased from 1.15 per cent of GDP in 2012 to 1.83 per cent in 2014: 59 per cent increase. The Federal and State components of actual pro-poor expenditure reflect interesting contrasts. The actual pro-poor expenditure is consistently higher at the State level than at the Federal level. However, the State actual pro-poor expenditure is mostly on wages and salaries, compared to the Federal expenditure. The actual development poverty-reducing expenditure is higher at the State level than at the Federal level. Between 2012 and 2014, this expenditure increased by about 67.7 per cent at the State level, compared to only 49.0 per cent at the Federal.

Institutional Arrangements Poverty has received high attention by the GoS. This is reflected in the strategies and policies of the economic and social sectors of development. The analyses of income and food poverty raise questions on the institutional arrangements for addressing them in the country. A wide range of actions and institutional arrangements has been put in place by the GoS for addressing poverty (See Table 1). They include cash transfers to poor families, social protection networks and mechanisms, social solidarity programs, microfinance and small scale enterprises, provision of housing and free health services to the poor, and

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involvement of community-based-organizations in addressing poverty at the levels of the States and localities. The institutional arrangements include quantitative targets to be achieved by the end of the Five-year Program for Economic Reform in 2019. The incidence of poverty is expected to decline by 11.5 percentage points: to below 35% in 2019. The main factors that will lead to the decline of poverty are (a) high and sustainable economic growth, (b) reduction of the unemployment rate (c) increase in food production, (d) increase in the coverage of social and medical protection, (e) increase in cash transfers to the poor families and destitute, and (f) financing of small and medium enterprises.

Addressing the Challenges

Following the discovery and exploitation of oil resources, income levels rapidly increased through the period between 1998 and 2008. However, the situation has been impacted negatively by the financial crisis and subsequently by the secession of the south. Another important factor that played a major role in the spread of poverty is the conflict and war, which are both costly and have displaced many people in the countryside. Poverty is the major challenge for development in the Sudan, and its causes are deeply rooted in the low levels of income and food shortage. However, there is paucity of data and research on the depth and breadth of poverty, and on its main economic and social determinants.

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MDG2: Achieve Universal Primary Education “The State shall promote education at all levels all over the Sudan and shall ensure free and compulsoryeducation at the primary level and in illiteracy eradication programmes.” Interim National Constitution of the Republic of the Sudan 2005

MDG2 calls for the achievement of universal primary education through measuring progress on netenrollment at the primary level of education, proportion of pupils starting grade 1 who finish final grade, and literacy rate of 15-24 year olds (women and men). The progress on these indicators is shown below.

MDG2 Indicators 2000 2008 2009 2011 2012 2013

Net enrolment in Basic education (%) 67

Proportion of pupils who reach last grade of basic education both sexes (%)

70 75.8 79.9

Proportion of pupils who reach last grade of basic education boys (%)

78.8 80.7

Proportion of pupils who reach last grade of basic education girls (%)

72.4 78.8

Education Enrollment Usually education enrollment is determined by demand and supply factors. On the demand side, education enrollment is determined by the growth of primary school-age population (children aged 6 to 13) and by the cultural attitudes toward education, which are usually more significant on the educational enrollment of girls than boys.Therefore the gender gap in enrolment is partly due tocultural factors.

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The supply factors are basically related to service delivery, including establishment of schools, education budget, the type and quality of education offered, the administrative and organization structure of the education system, the cost of education, and availability of teachers and educational materials and techniques. All of the demand and supply factors are directly influenced by the Government policies on education and budget, and by decisions on the allocation of resources to the education sector, and plans for its development in the future. Results from the MICS survey give a net intake rate of 36.8 per centin primary education, with a minor difference between males and females (See chart 13). However, variations by State and rural urban residence are quite significant. The intake rate for urban areas (56.6%) is almost twice the rate for rural areas (29.5%), and is high in Northern (73.6%), Khartoum (68%) and River Nile (66.5%)States, followed by Gezira (46%), Red Sea (44.1%)

and White Nile (39.7%).The lowest intake rates have been reported for West Kordofan (13.4%), East Darfor (19.6%) and North Darfor (19.75%). These variations are mostly due to the differences related to the demand and supply factors above-mentioned. Moreover, the low intake rates in Darfor, Kordofan and the Blue Nile States are due to family instability and conflict. School entry is determined by some factors of the enabling environment, such as mother’s education. The results of the MICS survey show high and positive correlation between primary school entryandmother’seducation. Children born to a mother with higher education are four times likely to enter primary school than those born to a mother with no education. Primary education of a mother doubles the chances of primary school entry for her children, and secondary education triples the chances, compared to a mother with no education.

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Most of the States have achieved, or close to achieving, gender parity in primary school attendance (see chart14). The only exceptions are Gadarif, East Darfor and West DarforStates, where more boys than girls attend primary schools. When children enter primary schools they are expected to continue to the final grade and to graduate. The MICS 2014 results show that this is true for about 80.8 per cent of the students, with no difference between girls and boys. However, the differentials by

residence and State are pervasive (See chart15). Children in urban areas are more likely (93.2%) to continue to grade 8 than children in rural areas (73.8%). This may partly be explained by the differences in income poverty between rural and urban areas mentioned above: the poor are less likely to afford continuous education of their children. Also the supply of education services and the school environment, including transportation of students, are much better in urban than in rural areas. The continuation of students to grade 8 is above the national average in 7 States (Khartoum 94.4%, Kassala 92.4%, Red Sea 90%, River Nile 89.2%, East Darfor 87.6%, Gezira 84.4% and Northern 81.9%). Family stability and affordability are among the most important explanations. Other factors include the supply of public and private schools in these States. The White Nile resembles the national average (see chart14). The remaining States of Gadarif and Sinnar, and the States in Darfor and Kordofan regions have continuation rates lower than the national average. These low rates may be due to low quality of the school environment, lack of school supplies and teachers, and family instability resulting from displacement and other factors.

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Institutional Development The GoS considers education an important social development sector for imparting knowledge and fighting ignorance and illiteracy. Also, it underscores the role of education in contributing to development and economic growth through advancing human resources capacities, transferring technology, and enhancing productivity and efficiency of the economy. Education in the Sudan has received priority in investment and spending by the GoS and the private sector, both of which have led to phenomenal expansion of the education system in the country since 1990. But still the provision of education services fall short of the huge demand for it in rural and urban areas and in the States. The education policy aspires to provide free and compulsory schooling for all children, to balance education opportunities among the States and by gender, to improve the school environment (maintenance, buildings, seating, water and sanitation), and to give priority to children with special needs and those affected by war and conflict. The Five-year Program for Economic Reform 2015-2019 includes the following education targets to be achieved by 2019:

(a) Ensure quality and free basic education for all by 2019 (b) Provide school health services, including toilets and sanitation, to all basic

education schools in the States (c) Address malnutrition among students in basic education (d) Provide free meals for school children (e) Establish 2000 school rooms by 2019 (f) Provide 800 education grants by 2019 (g) Develop the capacity of 12000 teachers (h) Increase teacher’s wage (i) Complete seating for all students (j) Establish teacher training institutes

Addressing the Challenges Education is a social development priority sector, and its financing is investment in human resources development and in the quality of life of future generations. Therefore, it is important to consider the developmental outcomes of investments in the education system, and to study the differential impacts of the provision of education services on the knowledge and the standard of living of the people, on labor force participation, earnings, health of both men and women in rural and urban areas. Besides addressing social inequality and promoting social justice, such studies will help to identify the actions that will enhance the potential impacts of the education policy in the country. The education system faces many complex challenges:

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(a) Expenditure on basic education has been assigned to the localities, and most of them do not have enough financial resources to cover the costs of education. This has constrained achieving the MDGs target and it has added to the problems of injustice and inequality in this sector

(b) Insufficient education infrastructure, especially teachers and education inputs (c) Cultural attitudes toward education (d) Conflict and security issues in some areas

It is proposed for these challenges to be addressed through implementing the following recommendations:

(a) Shift the responsibility of expenditure on basic education from the localities to the States or the Center (Ministry of Education)

(b) The Center should support the States to implement the education rules and legislatures

(c) Build capacities at the Center and States level in the areas of planning, training of trainers, and monitoring and evaluation

(d) Focus attention on the vulnerable population groups such as the nomads, internally displaced people, and persons with disabilities26

26In 2013 the Federal Ministry of Education launched a National Strategy for the Education of Children with Disabilities, covering

2013-2016

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MDG3:Promote Gender Equality and Empower Women “The State shall guarantee equal right of men andwomen to the enjoyment of all civil, political, social, cultural and economic rights, including the right to equal pay for equalwork and other related benefits”Interim National Constitution of the Republic of the Sudan 2005

Gender is a social construct, and gender disparities are mostly attributed to man-made social actions, policies and decisions undertaken at the individual, family, community and national levels. One of the primary objectives of development policy in the Sudan is to address gender disparities, and achieve social equity and justice in areas such as education, health, employment, wages and remuneration, representation in leadership positions, planning and decision making, and representation in parliament and politics. MDG3 calls for measuring progress on gender equality and women’s empowerment through three indicators on the (a) ratio of girls to boys in primary, secondary and tertiary education, (b) share of women in wage employment in the non-agriculture sector, and (c) proportion of seats held by women in national parliament. The progress of Sudan on these three indicators is shown below:

MDG3 indicators 1990 2000 2008 2009 2011 2012 2013 2015

Ratio of girls to boys in primary education (%)

77.0 86.6 93.0

Ratio of girls to boys in secondary education (%)

79.3 92.1 100,0

Ratio of girls to boys in tertiary education (%)

73.5 118.5 114.8 118 112

Share of women in wage employment in the non-agriculture sector (%)

17 (2009)

16.2 (2011)

Proportion of seats held by women in national parliament (%)

8.3 9.7 25.0 30.0

Literacy rates of 15-24 year old, both sexes (%)

78.2 87.9

Literacy rates of 15-24 year old, men (%)

85.7 90.3

Literacy rates of 15-24 year old, women (%)

72.3 85.5

Women to men parity index (Ratio of literacy rates 15-24)

0.84 0.95

Figures in brackets indicate year

Women’s Education Women’s education has improved tremendously at all levels of schooling, primarily because of the rapid increase in the number of schools for girls at the primary and secondary levels of education, and increase in the institutions of higher education. The outcomes of these developments and investments in the education system are reflected in the Gender Parity Index for primary and secondary schools (see chart16).

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Overall, the Sudan has achieved parity in primary schools, particularly in urban areas and in 12 States (South Darfor, North Darfor, River Nile, South Kordofan, Khartoum, Northern, White Nile, Kassala, Blue Nile, Red Sea, Gezira and Sinnar). Girls’ education at the primary level still requires more attention in the remaining 6 States. Girls outnumber boys at the secondary level of education in the country as whole, in rural and urban areas, and in 12 States: River Nile, South Kordofan, Khartoum, Northern, White Nile, Kassala, Blue Nile, Red Sea, Gezira, Sinnar, Gadarif and East Darfor. The increase in girls’ education is a recent trend that will gain momentum in the future. Its immediate impact is reflected in the improvement of literacy among women aged 14 to 25 in the country, which has reached 59.8 per cent for the country as a whole, 79.8 per cent for urban areas and 50 per cent for rural areas, according to the MICS 2014 results. However, the impacts of girls’ education on the literacy rate for women aged 14 to 25 are yet to be seen in the States located in Kordofan ad Darfor regions, and in Sinnar, Gadarif, Kassala and Blue Nile States. Most likely these States will witness rapid increase in women’s literacy rate in the near future when the current school-girls move upward the age scale.

Women’s Employment Subsequent to the developments in girls schooling, women’s employment in the non-agriculture sector has improved. According to the civil service records, employed women have outnumbered employed men. The ratio of women to men employed in the civil service increased from 1.21 in 2008 to 1.23 in 2009, and 1.32 in 2012.According to the labour laws, women and men have equal opportunities for jobs. The employment rules make equal provision for wages and according to responsibilities and performance. However, women’s employment in the labour market still falls behind men. According to results of the NBHS 2009 and SLFS 2011, women’s share in wage employment was 17 per cent in 2009 and 16.2 per cent in 2011: (19% for women in urban areas and 12.8% for

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women in rural areas, according to SLFS 2011).These percentages indicate that men dominate wage employment in the non-agriculture sector, and that rural women are at disadvantage compared to urban women.

Besides the male’ dominance, employment in the non-agriculture sector is also urban-based. According to the SLFS 2011 results, of every 4 persons employed in the non-agriculture sector, 3 were in urban areas and only 1 in rural areas. Undoubtedly, rapid urbanization is an important factor in the concentration of non-agriculture employment in urban areas and the transference of jobs from rural to urban centres. In order to bridge the gaps in women’semployment in rural areas, the Ministry of Welfare and Social securityis currently implementing, as part of its second five-year plan 2012-2016, a national project for the development of rural women. This is a 7 million dollar project, which is based on the themes of the national policy for the empowerment of women. It aims to increase income and develop knowledge and productive skills of women in rural areas27.

Women’s Participation in Leadership Positions The Sudan is experiencing increasing women’s participation in leadership positions. For example, the participation of women in the national parliament has improved significantly overtime. It increased from 9.7% in 1990 to 25% in 2010 and 30% in 2015. These changes have occurred as a result of improvements in the implementation of laws and legislations.

27More knowledge and information on this project are available in the National Report Beijing at 20, Ministry of Welfare and Social

Security, Khartoum May 2014. Also the project is described in more details in the National Report on the Empowerment of the Sudanese Woman: Lessons- challenges-Future Prospects. Ministry of Welfare and Social Security, Khartoum January 2015

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Women’s participation in executive decision-making and planning positions has also significantly improved. Theyoccupy senior executive positions, such as advisors to the president, Federal and State ministers,vice presidents of universities and deans of colleges,and ambassadors. For example, 28 women are currently ministers, State ministers, and district commissioners in the 18States. Currently, Sudanese women in diplomatic positions constitute 16.6 per cent (or 106 women out of a total of 635): nine of them at the level of ambassadors, 44 senior diplomats and 53diplomats inadministrative positions.

Institutional Development

The Sudan is pioneer on defining empowerment and on its implementation as a policy tool for actions and participation in development, and for contributing to the improvement of human rights and to the quality of life and welfare of the people. Themost important achievements related to empowerment are in the area ofestablishing institutional structures, policies and laws that have led to the empowerment of women:

(a) Integration of gender issues and concerns in national plans, strategies and policies, such as the Quarter Century Strategy (2007-2031), the first and second five-year National Development Plans (2007-2011, and 2012-2017), and the National Population Policy (2012-2031)

(b) Integration of women and girls in national sector policies on health, education, the family, older persons, persons with disabilities.

(c) Formulation of a National Plan for the Advancement of Women 1998-2002, which covered 12 themes of Beijing Program of Work on Women

(d) Establishment of a directorate for girl's education, as stipulated in the Girls Education Policy

(e) National Policy for the Women’s Empowerment approved by the Council of Ministers in 2007. National Programfor the Implementation of the Policy

(f) National Strategy for Combating Violence Against Women (2009-2011, 2012-2016)

(g) The Interim National Constitution of the Republic of the Sudan 2005, According to the constitution the State shall:

1. “Protect motherhood and women from injustice, promote gender equality and the role of women in family, and empower them in public life”

2. “Guarantee equal right of men and women to the enjoyment of all civil, political, social, cultural and economic rights, including the right to equal pay for equal work and other related benefits.

3. “Promote woman rights through affirmativeaction” 4. “combat harmful customs and traditions whichundermine the dignity and

the status of women” 5. “Provide maternity and child care and medicalcare for pregnant women”

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(h) Establishment of the Gender and the Family Unit within the Ministry of Welfare and Social Security at the Federal and State levels, Gender Advisors, Gender Unit at the Ministry of Justice, women’s centers for peace and human rights

(i) Effective participation of women in conflict resolution and peace building in Darfor, Kordofan and the Blue Nile States

Addressing the Challenges Full participation and empowerment of both men and women are essential for theupbringing of children, and for caring after their health and education. Particularly itis important to realize the full potential of women’s empowerment througheducation, improving their health, and through supporting their decisions andleadership roles at all levels. Women are disproportionately affected by the widespread of poverty, and by the eruption and continuation of war and conflict. The development on gender machineries and institutional structures has been successful in addressing gender issues, but further progress has largely been constrained by cultural and traditional practices, and by weak awareness of the laws and rights. The institutional structures in placeneeds further strengthening so as to become more effective in the implementation of the strategies and plans. There is shortage of in-depth, scientific and policy-focused research on women’s empowerment and development, so as to support the implementation of strategies and plans above-mentioned. This attributed to paucity of data, limitation of the financial resources and shortage of skills and capacities to undertake advanced research.

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MDG4:Reduce Child Mortality “The State shall protect the rights of the child as provided in the international and regional conventions ratified by the Sudan” Interim National Constitution of the Republic of the Sudan 2005 Child health is highly responsive to development activities and outcomes, particularly to improvements in income and the standard of living, improvements in food and nutrition, and in developments in women’s education and health. Therefore, reduction in child mortality is a summary measure of progress on development, and of the success of public and private investments in food and nutrition, education and health. MDG4 provides for three indicators on (a) under-five mortality rate, (b) infant mortality rate and (c) proportion of 1 year old children immunized against measles. The progress of the Sudan on these three measures is shown below:

Progress on MDG4 Indicators 1990 2008 2010 2015

Under-five Mortality Rate (1000) 128 102 78 76.6 (2013)

Infant Mortality Rate (1000 Live Birth) 80.2 71 33

Proportion of 1 year old children immunized against measles (%) 50 85 100

Figure in bracket refers to year

Child health in the Sudan has improved, as reflected in declining infant and under five mortality rates. However, the improvements in child health are moderate, reflecting high potential for further rapid improvement in the future.

The results of the MICS 2014 on infant and under-five mortality are quite informative of the variations by State and place of residence (See charts 18 and 19). The survey reports

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52.0 infant mortality rate (IMR) and 68.4 under-five mortality (U5MR) , both of which are much lower than rates reported during the 1990s. Infant mortality and under-five mortality vary by sex: higher for males (59.44, and 78.69 respectively) than females (44.15, and 57.64 respectively).

Improvements in infant and child health still more efforts to spread widely, as mortality at infancy and early childhood are high in rural areas and in most of the States. The IMRisbelow the total average (52) in 10 states (River Nile, Northern, Sinnar, North Kordofan, Gezira, Red Sea, CentralDarfor, Khartoum, White Nile and Blue Nile), and is lower than the average for urban areas (45.14) in 8 of these states (River Nile, Northern, Sinnar, North Kordofan, Gezira, Red Sea, Central Darfor, Khartoum). It is higher than the total average in 8 States (South Darfor, Gadarif, Kassala, West Kordofan, North Darfor, South Kordofan, West Darfor, and East Darfor), and is higher than the average for rural areas (54.52) in 6 of these states (Kassala, West Kordofan, North Darfor, South Kordofan, WestDarfor, and East Darfor). Likewise, U5MR is below the total average (68.4) in 8 States (Northern, River Nile, North Kordofan, Khartoum, Sinnar, Gezira, Red Sea, and White Nile), and in 6 of these States U5MR is below the average for urban areas (56.45). Under five mortality rate is higher than the total average in 10 States (South Darfor, Gadarif, Central Darfor, Kassala, West

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Kordofan, Blue Nile, North Darfor, West Darfor,South Kordofan, and East Darfor), and is higher than average for rural areas in 9 of these States(South Darfor, Gadarif, Central Darfor, Kassala, West Kordofan, Blue Nile, North Darfor, West Darfor and South Kordofan) These results indicate considerable disparities in IMR and U5MR and inequalities in the health of infants and children in the country. In the States where the rates are high, infants and under-five children are at high risk of death from malnutrition and diseases such as diarrhea and measles. They are also impacted by poverty and hunger, and by conflict and war. The disparities above mentioned highlight the areas where medical, nutrition, immunization, and awareness interventions to improve infant and child health are highly needed. TheGovernment will accelerate the implementation of the policies, rules28, laws and legislations linked to promoting infant and child health.

Mother’s Education Infants and Child health are both highly sensitive to the level of education of their mothers. Results from the MICS 2014 show that no education is detrimental to the health of the infants and children, and also to mother’s health (see charts 20). Secondary and higher levels of education greatly improve infants and children’s health and chances of survival. The health impacts of improved mother’s education work through the mechanisms of marriage delay due to school attendance, increasing use of contraceptives for spacing between births, and high awareness of health safety during pregnancy and delivery, and of the safety of infants and toddlers. Interventions to improve mother’s education and awareness of the health risks for herself and her children are highly needed in the States where infant and under-five mortality are high.

28Such as providing free medical services, immunization, and free medicine to children aged less than 5 years

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.

Institutional Development The GoS gave special concern and attention to the rights of the child, including the right to development and to access health and education service, and right of protection from abuse and violence. This demonstrated in the integration of the needs of children in the national development strategies and plans, as well as in the institutional development on the policies, laws and legislations related to the welfare of children:- (a) Establishment of the National Council for the Welfare of Childhood 1991 (b) Implementation of the national strategy for the elimination of female genital

mutilation (c) Formulation of the Child Law in 2010, which defined the child as any person below age

18 and increased the age for criminal responsibility from 7 to 8 (d) Provision of free medical services and free medicines for children below age 5


Children face immense challenges, as child welfare is impacted by conflict and wars, and lack of access to services and resources.Improvement of child health requires multidimensional strategies and actions that engage the family, community and Government authorities at the local, State and Federal levels. Interventions to improve child health, and protect children throughthe implementation and enforcement of the laws will be scaled up.

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MDG5:Improve Maternal Health “The State shall protect motherhood and women from injustice, promote gender equality and the role of women infamily, and empower them in public life”. “The State shall combat harmful customs and traditions whichundermine the dignity and the status of women.”“The State shall provide maternity and child care and medical care for pregnant women.” Interim National Constitution of the Republic of the Sudan 2005

Usually women are at high risk of morbidity and death during pregnancy and childbirth, which are major causes of concern for themselves, their families and communities, and for the health authorities. These risks are high when women are poor and malnourished, when they get married at a very young age, when pregnancies are frequent and not followed up, and when delivery is undertaken in poor health conditions. For these and other reasons improving maternal health has been considered priority in the development agenda. Progress on development is expected to directly improve maternal health as measured through (a) maternal mortality ratio, (b) proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel, (c) contraceptive prevalence rate, (d) adolescent birth rate, and (e) antenatal care coverage. Sudan’s progress on these maternal health indicators are shown below:

MDG5 Indicators 1990 2006 2010 2013

Maternal Mortality Ratio (deaths per 100,000 live births) 537 534 216

Proportion of birth attended by skilled health personnel (%) 24 57 74

Contraceptive prevalence rate (%) 7.0 7.6 9 12.2

Adolescent birth rate (per 1000) ..... .... 93 80

Pregnant women receiving prenatal care (%) …… ... 74

Antenatal care coverage at least one visit (%) 74.1 74.3 79.1 (2014)

Antenatal care coverage at least 4 visits (%) 47.1 50.7 (2014)

Unmet need for family planning (%) 28.9 28.9

Figure in bracket indicate year

Maternal mortality defined asmaternal deaths during pregnancy and within 42 days of pregnancy termination, has been reduced by 60 per cent, from 537 in 1990 to 216 in 2010, according to the official records. This decline is confirmed by modelled estimates prepared by the interagency group29, which show the adjusted maternal mortality ratio of 720 in 1990, 540 in 2000, and 360 in 2013: a 50 per cent reduction in 23 years. Extra efforts are needed to improve the statistics on maternal mortality, particularly through registration of maternal deaths by cause when they occur. Haemorrhage, hypertension, obstructed labour, and anaemia are among the most common causes of maternal mortality in the Sudan. Maternal health is directly related to fertility. Adolescent fertility has declined from 93 in 2010 to 80 in 2013. Results from the MICS 2014 show a rate of 87 for the sample, 103 for rural areas and 53 for urban areas. Adolescent fertility is highly variable by State: lowest at

29WHO, UNICEF, UNFPA, The World Bank, and the United Nations Population Division. Trends in Maternal Mortality: 1990 to 2013.

Geneva, World Health Organization, 2014. The data are estimated with a regression model using information on the proportion of maternal deaths among non-AIDS deaths in women ages 15-49, fertility, birth attendants, and GDP

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47 for Khartoum and highest at 125 for South Darfor (See table 4). It also varies by level of education: very high at 169 for girls with no education and very low at 34 and 8 for girls with secondary and higher education, respectively (see chart 21). These results underscore the important role of girls’ education in regulating adolescent fertility. The continuation of girls’ education at the primary, secondary, and higher education will help in the management of adolescent fertility in the States where it is currently high.

Table 4 Reproductive Health Measures

Source of Data: MICS 2014

ABR TFR ANC CPR

South Darfor 125 6,9 61,8 5,4

South Kordofan 119 6,8 85,1 9,0

West Darfor 117 6,7 75,2 4,1

Gadarif 115 6,7 80,5 9,5

Blue Nile 114 6,2 71,8 7,1

North Kordofan 113 5,9 85,6 14,7

Kassala 113 5,8 83,0 7,9

Central Darfor 113 5,8 67,9 2,9

East Darfor 112 5,7 82,9 6,2

North Darfor 100 5,3 68,7 3,7

White Nile 91 5,2 78,8 15,6

West Kordofan 91 4,8 65,3 6,1

Sinnar 86 4,8 75,3 13,5

Gezira 65 4,3 83,3 12,2

Northern 52 4,2 94,7 22,9

Red Sea 49 3,8 72,4 9,6

River Nile 49 3,6 95,2 21,3

Khartoum 47 3,2 97,1 26,5

Total 87 5,2 79,1 12,2

ABR= Adolescent Birth Rate TFR= Total Fertility Rate ANC= Antenatal Care Coverage any skilled provider CPR= Contraceptive Prevalence Rate any method

The use of modern contractive methods improves maternal health through regulating fertility and the timing of births. Table 4 shows the use of contractive methods by State and place of residence, and chart 20 shows the use of contraceptive methods by level of education. These results are quite informative. The average use of any modern contraceptive method is 12.2 per cent, indicating slight increase from 9 per cent in 2010. Most important is the variation by residence: 9 per cent for rural areas and 20.1 per cent for urban areas. Family planning services are mostly focussed in urban areas. The use of modern contraceptive method also varies by State, with the highest rate of

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26.5 per cent reported for Khartoum and lowest 2.9 per cent reported for Central Darfor. Gezira resemble the national average (12.2%). Eleven States fall below the national average and six States fall above the national average (see table 4). These differences indicate where family planning interventions need to expand primarily for the purpose of improving maternal and reproductive health. Women’s education plays a critical role in the use of modern contraceptive method (see chart22).It increases awareness and promotes decision making. Therefore, women with secondary and higher levels of education are more likely to use modern methods of contraception. With increasing girls’ education and rapid urbanization, the use of modern contraceptive methods will increase, leading to more improvements in maternal health. The amount and quality of care women receive during pregnancy and child birth is an important determinant of maternal and child health. The results of the 2010 Household Health Survey indicate that 74 per cent of the pregnant women receive prenatal care services. The results of the MICS 2014 give a relatively higher rate of 79.1 per cent. The survey results indicate that antenatal care services arehighly unequal. Women in

Khartoum, River Nile and Northern States, are much more covered by health care services during pregnancy than the remaining States of the country (see table 4).Besides the official health care system, these States have the largest number of private health care services. The delivery of antenatal care services in rural areas, and in the States where such services are in high demand will be intensified. Such efforts will be holistic involving women themselves and community based organization, and they will be accompanied with strong training, awareness and advocacy strategies.

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As expected, antenatal health care coverage is almost complete for women with higher education, and those with secondary education (see chart 23). Women’s education is an important factor that determines their access to antenatal health care during pregnancy. By contrast primary or no education is associated with low antenatal health care coverage. This result is important for health care interventions in the States where there is high unmet need for antenatal care services.

Institutional Development Institutional development for maternal health started with the safe motherhood initiative in 1987, based on which the Maternal and Child Health Unit was established in the Ministry of Health. Subsequently this unit has been transformed to the Reproductive Health Directorate. In 2005 the Sudan formulated a reproductive health strategy updated in 2009. Maternal health is well covered in the Federal Ministry of Health strategies and policies:

(a) Sudan National Health Sector Strategic Plan 2012-2016 (b) Primary Health Care Services in Sudan Towards universal Coverage 2012-2016 (c) Reproductive Health Strategy 2009 (d) Reproductive Health Policy 2010 (e) Costed Road Map for Reduction of Maternal and New born Mortality 2010-2015 (f) National Strategy for scaling up Midwifery 2010

Addressing the Challenges Maternal health faces a plethora of challenges, particularly in rural areas where the great majority of women in the reproductive age reside and where maternal health services are meagre. There is shortage of trained and skilled midwives, and shortage of knowledge on how, where and when to follow up pregnancy and to safely deliver babies. Poor maternal health is often caused by malnutrition during pregnancy and low quality services in hospitals and clinics. Some traditional practices, such as FGM/C and early marriage, combined with lack of knowledge on modern contraceptive methods and of their use for planning the timing of pregnancies and spacing between births, are among the detrimental factors of maternal health.Much of the negative impacts of these factors can be mitigated through increasing women’s education and support enrolment and continuation of girls in schools.

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MDG6: Combat HIV/AIDS, Malaria and other Diseases “The State shall promote public health, establish, rehabilitate, develop basic medical and diagnostic institutions, provide free primary health care and emergency services for all citizens”Interim National Constitution of the Republic of the Sudan 2005

Combating endemic diseases, particularly HIV/AIDS, malaria, and Tuberculosis, have been considered priority in the development agenda. These diseases debilitate human welfare and greatly jeopardize the productivity of people in the working age. They are costly to address, but their elimination improves the survival of people and contributes to production and economic growth. The development agenda calls for halting and reversing the spread of HIV/AIDS, achieving universal access to AIDS treatment, and reversing the incidence of malaria and other diseases. Sudan’s Progress on health related MDG indicators are shown below:

MDG6 Indicators 1990 2006 2010 2014

HIV prevalence among population (%) ...... ...... 0.67 0.67

HIV prevalence among people aged 15 to 49 (%) ...... ...... ...... 0.2

Proportion of the population aged 15-24 with comprehensive correct knowledge on HIV/AIDS

6.7 11.1m 5.35f

Patients on ART treatment (%) ..... ..... 9.2 (2011) 10.6 5

Young people aged 15-24 living with HIV 0.31 (2007) .... 0.11 (2013)

Malaria prevalence rate (%) ..... 3.7 1.8 (2009)

Death rates attributed to malaria of all hospital deaths (%) …… 2.2(2000) 0.62 (2011)

TB prevalence rate per 100,000 population (mid-point) 368 225 188 192(2013)

TB incidence rate per 100,000 population (mid-point) 170 131 110 108

Deaths attributed to TBper year per 100,000 population 53 28 25 25

m=males f=females Figure in bracket indicate year

HIV/AIDS The prevalence and incidence of HIV/AIDS are both low, as results from several rounds of Antenatal Care Service Surveillance (ANCSS) reflect low incidence and prevalence of the disease among the general population30. Results from a national survey undertaken in 2009 in 25 sites show an incidence rate of 0.67 per cent for the country as a whole. According to the most recent estimates for 2014 prepared by UNAIDS, the HIV prevalence rate is 0.2% for adults aged 15 to 49. The total number of people of all age groups living with HIV is estimated at 53 thousands, of whom 49 thousands are in the age group 15 to 49. Women aged 15 and above living with HIV are estimated at 23 thousands. Deaths attributed to AIDS were about 2900 in 2014. Patients on ART represent only 10.6 per cent coverage in 2013, compared to 9.5 per cent and 9.6 per cent in 2011 and 2012, respectively. The low coverage with ART is due to low

30Global AIDS Response Progress Reporting 2012-2013. Sudan National AIDS and STI Control Program. Federal Ministry of Health March 2014

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testing, weak linking mechanisms with treatment centers, and high rates of lost to follow up and deaths upon treatment. With this low coverage, reaching the target of universal ART coverage by the end of 2015 is very unlikely to be met. However, increasing testing uptake in settings where positive cases are more likely to be found, strengthening referral systems and patients retention can improve the coverage to some substantial number. On the spread of HIV, available data show concentration of HIV/STI among key population in specific States. HIV prevalence is 2 to 7 times higher in the eastern region (Red Sea, Kassala, Blue Nile) compared to HIV prevalence among the general population.

Malaria Malaria is a major health problem in the Sudan and it is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality. Based on climate models, it is estimated that 75 per cent of the population are at risk of malaria, while 25 per cent are at risk of malaria epidemics. During 2005–2009, malaria prevalence dropped from 3.7 per cent to 1.8 per cent, while reported cases were reduced from 7.5 million (in 1990) to 2.3 million (in 2009). Infection was almost three times higher in rural than urban areas. Moreover, malaria prevalence among individuals in the lowest wealth quintile is almost 7 times higher than those in the wealthiest quintile. These results indicate linkage of malaria to low income and poverty. According to the Federal Ministry of Health, the outpatient attendance for malaria in public health facilities declined from about 4.3 million in 2000 to 1.2 million cases in 2011. Malaria accounts for about 2.2 per cent of all hospital deaths in 2000 declined to 0.62 per cent in 2011. This indicates a reduction of 72 per cent in deaths attributed to malaria. These results indicate malaria is no longer among the top 10 causes of death in the country. The country is on track for the achievement of this target31.

Tuberculosis Tuberculosis is a priority health issue in the Sudan, and is being addressed by the health authorities the National Tuberculosis Control Program (NTP). The overall goal of the NTP is toreduce the TB burden in the country, particularly among poor and vulnerable populations.The TB incidence rate is estimated at 117 per 100,000 persons in 2011. However, TB notification cases are low. The reported cases were 220682 in 2003 declined to 19831 cases in 2012. The disease follows a typical age pattern, with peak of 78.4 per cent of the cases reported for ages 15 to 54. These are the productive age groups, meaning that TB impacts negatively on productivity and economic growth. Evaluation of treatment outcome gives a

31The objective oftheNational Malaria Control Strategy (NMCS) 2011-2015 is to reduce the morbidity and mortality of

malaria by 50% by 2015 all over Sudan (compared to reported cases in 2009)

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success rate 71 per cent, which is far below the target of 85 per cent. The TB death rate per 100 thousand populationsdeclined from 53 in 1990 to 25 in 2014.

Institutional Development The commitment of GoS to addressing HIV/AIDS, Malaria and TB is demonstrated in the institutional structures put in place, in capacity development, and in the allocation of human and financial resources for combating the incidence and prevalence of these diseases, and providing treatment for the infected population. Institutional developments include establishment of the Sudan National AIDS and STI Control Program, National Malaria Control Program and TB Control Program. They include strategies suchas the updated National HIV strategy 2014-2016, National Malaria Control Strategic Plan 2011-2015, National Tuberculosis Program. These programs are operationally spread in all States.


Low knowledge on HIV, Malaria and TB is major problem among the general population. In case of HIV, knowledge and behavior change will be promotedso as to reduce the vulnerability of people to the spread of the virus. Reinforcement of laws and implementation of policies is anotherchallenging areain the country. With the help of partners, the GoS is planning to scale up prevention and treatment, particularly among vulnerable population groups and the poor segments of society. Though plans and strategies are often in place, their implementation is weak because of lack of funding. Programs are often dependent on external funds, especially from the UN agencies (UNDP, UNAIDS, UNFPA, WHO, UNICEF)

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MDG7: Ensure Environmental Sustainability “The people of the Sudan shall have the right to a clean and diverse environment; the State and the citizens have the duty to preserve and promote the country’s biodiversity.” Interim National Constitution of the Republic of the Sudan 2005

Progress on development is expected to ensure economic, social and environmental sustainability, to meet the needs of current generations without jeopardizing the welfare of the future ones. As an important component of the MDGs framework, sustainability will be achieved through (a) integrating the principles of sustainable development into policies and programs, and reversing the loss of environmental resources, (b) reducing biodiversity loss, (c) halving the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation, and (d) achieving significant improvement in the lives of slum dwellers. The progress in the Sudan on the achievement of these targets is measured through the following indicators:

MDG7 Indicators 1990 2010 2015

Proportion of land area covered by forest (%) 36 29.6 9.97

Total CO2 emission 72,014(1995) 77,650(2000) -

Consumption of ozone-depleting substances (Ton) 1-MBr 2- HCFC22 3- HCFC141b

- -

1.2 207 362.33

Fish stocks within safe biological limits (Ton) 110 110 33

Proportion of terrestrial and marine areas protected (%) 10 6 6

Proportion of species threatened with extinction (%) 2 3 4

Proportion of total water resources used (%) 31.5(2010)

Proportion of population using an improved drinking water source (%) 64 59(2009) 68

Urban 85 65(2009) 93

Rural 57 56(2009) 79

Proportion of population using an improved sanitation facility (%) 27 27.1 32.9

Urban 53 46.9(2009) 77

Rural 26 17.9(2009) 63

Proportion of urban population living in slums (%) - - 38

Figure in brackets indicate year

Forestry

Forests play a pivotal role in addressing poverty through the provision of fruits and food, wood for energy and housing, gum Arabic, medicinal products, animal feed, among others. They protect the environment through their impact on soil, wind, and rain, they provide shelter for animals and humans, and they contribute to nutrition and food security. The forests cover in the Sudan hasdeclined to about 10 per cent in 2015: down from 36 per cent in 1990 and 29.4 in 2010. This decline is due to the secession of South Sudanas well as deforestation, which increasedfrom 0.74 per cent to 2.46 per cent annually.

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Consequently, the Sudan became one of the low forest cover and high deforestation ratescountries in the world. A recent study conducted in 2012 by the Ministry of Environment, Forestry and Physical Development,indicates a reduction of the forest area from 21.83 million hectares in 2000 to 18.74 hectares in 2012. This gives an annual deforestation of about 258 thousands hectares. This downward trend is contrary to the 1986 forest policy which calls for increasing the forest area to 20 per cent of the total land area. The achievement of this target requires investment in the forestry sector and implementation of the plans and strategies related to forestry in the Sudan. Forests are estimated to contribute about 0.2 per cent to GDP, based on exports of forest products. This is likely an underestimation32 of the contribution of forests to the national and private incomes, as most of these products are consumed and traded locally. For example, forests provide about 20.69 cubic meters of solid wood valued at a total of SDG115.89 billion. Approximately 45 per cent of this amount is consumed as firewood and 38.4 per cent is consumed as charcoal. The underestimation of forests’ contribution has to be corrected, so as to appropriately value the role of forests in economic development.

Green House Gas Emissions

Green House Gas (GHG) emissions have increased from 72014Gg of carbon dioxide-equivalent (CO2e) in 1995 to 77650Gg CO2ein 2000: 8 per cent increase in 5 years (see chart 24). This changeis due to 27 per cent increase in agriculture GHG emissions: from about 42 thousand to 58 thousand, mainly because of increase in livestock population. Emissions from energy have also increased by 10 per cent: from about 8 thousand to 9 thousand. Emissions from waste have more than doubled during this period. The increase in energy emissions are due to increased fossil fuel consuming activities in electricity production, transport, and manufacturing. Emissions from waste have doubled due to rapid urbanization and increasing amounts of municipal solid waste sent to landfill. By contrast, emissions from industrial activities have decreased by 46 per cent because one of the main cement factories was not operational during year 2000. Also emissions

32 According to the Ministry of Environment, Forestry and Physical Development, forests contribute 3,3% of GDP

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from land use cover and forests (LUCF) have been cut by more than half due to the secession of South Sudan.

Fisheries Sudan is endowed with diversified sources of fish, which support income and poverty alleviation, and promotes food security and nutrition in the country.The last assessment of the stock of fish resources in Sudan was done in 1976 and it was estimated at 110 tons, but now the fishstockis expected to have decreased by 70% because of the secession South Sudan.

Currently, fisheries capture activities are centered around the River Nile and its tributaries and the territorial waters of Sudan on the Red Sea. The jurisdiction of Sudan on the Red Sea is limited to a coastline of some 750 km and an Exclusive Economic Zone of 91,600 sq. km of which 22,300 km2 constitute the shallow coastal area.

Sudan’s Marine Fisheries is small-scale and artisanal in nature, as defined as a labor intensive fisheries that is conducted by artisanal craftsmen whose level of income, mechanical sophistication, quantity of production, fishing range, political influence, market outlets, employment and social mobility and financial dependence keep them subservient to the economic decisions and operating constraints placed upon them by those who buy their production.

Water Use

Sudan is endowed with water resources, yet the overall use of water for agriculture, housing and industry is still limited to 31.5 per cent of the total water resources. Access to water is constrained by shortage of investment in water supply and resource development systems. Results from the MICS 2014 show that 68 per cent of the people have access to safe drinking water (see chart 25). This is in contrast to 64 per cent in 1990. The progress is very slow, as 82 per cent of the people were expected to have access to safe drinking water in 2015.

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Access to safe drinking water is highly differentiated by place of residence. Rural dwellers have lower access to safe drinking water than urban residents. Access to safe drinking water is highest in the Northern, Gezira, Sinnar, River Nile, and Khartoum States. The situation is worst in the States of Gadarif, White Nile, Red Sea, and in the conflict States (see chart 25). Access to water is determined by socio-economic factors such as education level of the head of the household. Results from the MICS 2014 survey indicate high access rate of about 86.5 per cent where the education of the head of the household is high, compared to 59.7 per cent where the head of the household is not educated. Primary and secondary education increases the access rate to 71 per cent and 78.8 per cent, respectively. Most likely, education is associated with improved income and health awareness of the importance of access to safe drinking water.

Sanitation

There is slight progress on the use of improved sanitation services from 33 per cent in 1990 to 42 per cent in 2009. The results of the MICS 20014 show 32.9 per centaccess to improved sanitation for the sample as a whole, which is less than the national average for 2009. Residents in urban areas and in the States of Northern, Khartoum, Red Sea and River Nile are much better compared to other parts of the country. Improved sanitation services are extremely low in rural areas, and are lower than average in 12 States (See chart 26). Access to improved sanitary services is determined by the level of education of the head of household. The MICS 2014 show that access rate for higher level of education of head of households is more than three times higher than for no education (See chart 27).

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Box 7environmental policies, acts, laws and legislations

1. Environment Protection Act 2001 2. Forestry and Natural Resource law 2002 3. Wildlife Conservation and National Park Law 1986 4. Protection Fresh water Fisheries Law 1953 5. Protection Fisheries and Aquatic Law 1937 6. Water Resources Law 1995 7. Ozone Depletion Substances Regulation 2001 8. The Sudan’s National Biodiversity Strategy and

Action Plan May 2000 9. National Water Policy 2000 10. National Water Supply and Sanitation Policy 11. National Biodiversity Strategy 2015-2019 12. National Strategy for Integrated Management of

the Coastal Zone 2004 13. National Adaptation Plan 2013 14. National Action Plan of Adaptation 2007 15. Low-Carbon-Development-Strategy2014 16. National Comprehensive Strategy for Forestry

2002-2027 17. Ten-year Strategy for Forestry After secession

2011-2021 18. National Program of Disposal Ozone Depletion

Substances 2015 - 2030

Institutional Development

The environmental policies, legislations and strategies in the Sudan are sector-based and focused on land, water, wildlife, biodiversity, fisheries, agriculture, climate and livestock, among others. They are closely connected to the line ministries and departments that function along the same lines for the purpose of administration, planning and resource allocation (human and financial, institutional). These institutional entities are related to each other through a plethora of environmental policies, acts, laws and legislations (See Box 7) Conservation of diversity, national heritage and indigenous knowledge are important pillars of national development plans and strategies in the Sudan. The Interim Constitution of 2005, the Quarter Century Strategy, and the national development plans for 2007-2011 and 2012-2017, they all recognize the importance of biodiversity, and of the ethnic and cultural resources for progress and development in the Sudan. The Sudan’s National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan (May 2000) underlines the importance of capacity building for sustainable development and conservation of biodiversity, especially through legal measures that can protect and preserve the indigenous knowledge of people and resources of flora and fauna.

The Ministry of Livestock &Fisheries and Rangeland through the General Directorate of Fisheries and Aquatics adopted the fisheries and aquaculturestrategic plan, which States the following seven guiding objectives:

1. The role of fish resources in poverty alleviation, food security and welfare of the people.

2. Rational utilization, conservation and development of fisheries and aquatic resources through sustainable management of production, restocking of depleted resources and pollution control.

3. Increase of productivity and efficiency of fishers and producers through research, technology development and transfer, training and capacity building.

4. Development and strengthening of competitiveness of fisheries products through improvement of marketing facilities and quality control.

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5. Investment incentives and privatization. 6. Participation of stakeholders in management and development processes. 7. Strengthen databases and documentation.

The policies and implementation and enforcement mechanisms adopted within the strategy to attain these seven objectives include:

1. Institutional and legislative reforms. 2. Strengthening of coordination mechanisms between the public and private sectors

at the central and State levels within the country. 3. Establishment and development of fishers and producers organization. 4. Promotion of fish producers and fisheries investors through stimulating easy-term

credit systems. 5. Harmonization of market access and trade facilitation activities. 6. Staff recruitment and training. 7. Allocation of financial resources for fisheries research and development to public

institutions. 8. Establish and maintain professional links and relations with relevant regional and

international institutions.

On climate change, article 4.1 of the Climate Change Convention requires all “Parties, taking into account theircommon but differentiated responsibilities and their specific national and regional development priorities, objectives and circumstances, to formulate, implement, publish and regularly update national and, where appropriate, regional programs containing measures to mitigate climate change”. However, with a status as a least developed country (LDC), Sudan is not obliged to pursue a GHG emission reduction target. The GoShas prepared a National Low-Carbon-Development-Strategy (LCDS) through the HCENR under the Ministry of Environment, Natural Resources and Physical Development. The main development objective of this strategy is the achievement and subsequent consolidation of the MDGs. Climate change affects the way in which the MDGs are reached. Therefore, the objective is notjust development, but green development that is lowcarbon and also resilient to climate change. Also the Government has prepared a strategic plan for the reduction of emission from deforestation and forest degradation. It is implementing a big project for carbon sequestration in forest sector funded from GEF (14 Million Dollars), and is preparing to implement projects on wind energy and on the use of solar energy to operate diesel pumps.

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Addressing the Challenges In spite of the tremendous efforts, Sudan faces immense challenges for achieving environmental sustainability. Shortage of financial resources and of investment in the environmental sectors is a major bottleneck. Most of the environmental sectors, particularly water, sanitation and forestry, are functioning at low level of efficiency because of technological shortages and low levels of skills partly caused by the sanctions. Environmental sustainability will be improved through strengthening coordination and harmonization of laws, policies and actions, and r the enforcement of environmental laws and legislations, and the implementation of the environmental policies and strategies. The provision of safe drinking water suffers from shortage of resources to invest in the production and distribution of quality water, and in the management and monitoring of water supply to people in rural and urban areas. Population distribution in remote areas and in areas where people affected by conflicts and war, make their accessibility to safe drinking water a very difficult and costly task. The main challenge in the area of sanitation is public awareness of the importance of personal hygiene and cleanness. There is also lack of coordination between water agencies and sanitation agencies, and with the health and education authorities. The demand for forestry products, especially for energy consumptions, at the time decreasing forests cover after separation is quite challenging for the sustainability of the environment. There are environmental and social problems resulting from poverty and rainfall fluctuations. Also the forestry sectoris negatively impacted by development strategies and polices in other sectors, such expansion in agriculture, mining and petroleum industries

Promoting and supporting the Forests National Corporation (FNC) will increase the efficiency of implementation of its policies, plans and strategies. Addressing the challenges above-mentioned will enable the FNC to attain the objectives of rehabilitation of the degraded areas and increasing aforestation and reforestation by 3.4 million feddan annually. Investment in programs such as putting 4.65 million feddan under sustainable management, increasing the production of Gum Arabic to 200 thousand tons and different Gums to 5 thousand tons annually, and increasing timber production to 586 thousand cubic meters annually, will contribute to poverty alleviation and sustainability of the environment for future generations. All environmental sectors are experiencing shortage of data and paucity of research, which call for investment in environmental data and in developing a standard set of environmental indicators and a systematic database system. The production of data will help in undertaking research on stock assessment, for example in the areas of fisheries and forests, and develop capacities for operational research on the environment and climate change. It is important to assess the role of environmental and natural goods and

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resources for meeting the income, food and nutrition needs of the poor people, and to quantify the role of these goods in addressing poverty.

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MDG8:Develop a Global Partnership for Development Partnership is critical and absolutely necessary for achieving progress on the national, regional and international development agenda. It is a contract between the developed and developing countries, whereby the former countries are expected to facilitate the flow of financial resources for development (Official Development Assistance) in the latter. Other policy measures include rule-based nondiscriminatory trading and financial system, debt relief for the heavily indebted countries (HIPC), and long-term sustainability of debt. The progress of Sudan on the achievement of these targets is measured through the following indicators:

MDG8 Indicators 1990 2000 2011 2013

HIPC Status Reached pre- decision point

Net ODA received per capita (current US $) 33 7 45 (2010) 31

Debt service as a percentage of exports of goods and services and net income

4.8 13.2 8.0 3.5

Fixed telephone subscriptions per 100 inhabitants 0.23 1.13 1.33 1.09

Fixed Telephone subscriptions 62,000 386,775 483,617 122,673 (2015)

Mobile-cellular telephone subscriptions per 100 inhabitants

0 0.07 68.78 72.85

Mobile-cellular telephone subscribers 0 23,000 25,056,185 28,603,860 (2015)

Internet users per 100 inhabitants 0 0.03 17.30 24.64 (2014)

Figure in bracket indicate year

Official Development Assistance The Official Development Assistance (ODA) usually consists of loans made on concessional terms and official grants by agencies of the members of the Development Assistance Committee (DAC). The ODA flows33, which are usually used to promote development and welfare, are very low to the Sudan. Their total amount was US$ 224.65 million in 2000 increased to US$994.48 million in 2004. After signing the peace agreement ODA flows to The Sudan increased to US$ 1825.81 million in 2005 and US$2058.91 million in 2010, and subsequently declined after the secession of South Sudan to US$ 1099.04 million in 2011 and US$975.11million in 2012.

33 Data on ODA flows are available on line www.oecd.org/dac/stats/idsonline

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Most of the resource flows that are being used by donor agencies for development in the Sudan 2014 are channeled through the UN agencies (see chart 28). The money flows are being used for the implementation of projects and programs in the areas of health, agriculture and food security, and humanitarian assistance (see chart29). The environment, industry and trade sectors received the least resources flows in 2014. However, over program cycles of 3 to 5 years the resources flows to the environment have reached about US$ 70 million for some activities related to the MDGs. This has been provided under the UN agencies (UNEP, UNDP, FAO, and UNHCR)and other organizations such as theWorld Bank and French Development Agency. These agencies have also contributed to CSOs, NGOs, and private companies activities on the environment.

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Trade for Development Sudan’sTrade and Foreign Policies are the cornerstones of its partnership for development. They cover bilateral and multilateral trade and foreign policy relations involving labor, goods and services, and exchange of information. The development partnerships and policies serve the national interest and are conducted with great degree of independency and transparency. They promote cooperation and regional integration with neighboring countries in Africa and the Arab World. The full resource potentials of trade for development in the Sudan are highly underutilized. Trade performance increased during ashort ten-year period of increasing revenues from oil. The oil exports have led to six-fold increase of GDP from about US$ 10 billion in 1999 to US$ 65 billion in 2010. During this period per capita income grew by more than 60per cent. The relative share of the traditional export sectors (agriculture, livestock, gum Arabic, etc.) have declined from 60 per cent in 1998 to only 13 per cent during the period 1999 to 2005.

Economic Sanctions Economic sanctions maintained by the United States Government since 1997 have negatively impacted all sectors of the economy and society, and significantly derailed the achievement of the MDGs in the country. However, the GoS managed to mitigate some of the negative impacts of the sanctions through conducting businesses with China, India, Malaysia and other friendly countries. Although the sanctions have been designed to target GoS business and key officials, people at the lowest level of development have been the hardest hit. They have suffered most from lack of access to technology that can help them improve their standards of living, access to life saving medicines, and access to information technology to conduct research. Also people

Box 8 Trade for poverty reduction Reducing trade costs and increasing trade represent the most powerful policy packageavailable to the GOS for reducing poverty and placing Sudan on the path to meeting theMDG and advancing to middle income status. Outward oriented development is a necessarycondition for countries that have achieved middle income status. Sudan Diagnostic Trade Integration Study (DTIS). Reducing Trade Costs to increase competitiveness and resilience

Box 9 Sanctions constrain transfer of technology Africa’s City of Technology is a research center under the umbrella of Khartoum University, housing a super-computer that connects 40 universities around Africa. There are over one hundred researchers and students in the center, committed to advancing the technological growth of the continent. However, the required certifications necessary to advance careers and establish legitimacy are not available in Sudan - Google does not allow their certifications to be received in the country. As a result, researchers and students are forced to either work uncertified, or travel outside of the country to receive the certification. Malik M, Malik. The Efficacy of United States Sanctions on the Republic of Sudan, Journal of Georgetown University-Qatar Middle Eastern Studies Student Association http://dx.doi.org/10.5339/messa.2015.7

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have faced immense difficulties on traveling by railways, roads and airplanes, and on undertaking financial transactions to help them facilitate private businesses, such as money transfers to support family needs for food, housing and shelter. The sanctions have impeded universities to play their roles as centers of excellence in Africa (See Box 9). The continuation of citizens to bear most of the burden of the sanctions and economic embargo is testimony of the failure of these measures to achieve their intended goals.

The Debt Burden The achievement of the MDGs is hampered by the surmounting external debt burden, which climbed from US$10.03 billion in 1986 to US$ 20.8 billion in 2000. Due to accumulating interest arrears, the debt burden increased toUS$28.2 billion in 2006and reached US$ 45.6 billion in 2013. Increasing debt burden has crippling effects on economic growth and on the growth rate of per capita income. The debt burden has contributed to increasing poverty. The Sudan is technically qualified to benefit from the Highly Indebted Poor Countries initiative (HIPC). However, it has been denied to join the HIPC countries primarily for political reasons. Therefore the Sudan has been unjustifiably deprived of debt relief strategies and from receiving concessional aid to alleviate poverty and develop the education, health, agriculture and other MDGs related sectors.

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Annex 1

Official list of MDG indicators

All indicators should be disaggregated by sex and urban/rural as far as possible. Effective 15 January 2008

Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)

Goals and Targets (from the Millennium Declaration)

Indicators for monitoring progress

Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

Target 1.A: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than one dollar a day

1.1 Proportion of population below $1.25 (PPP) per dayi 1.2 Poverty gap ratio 1.3 Share of poorest quintile in national consumption

Target 1.B:Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all, including women and young people

1.4 Growth rate of GDP per person employed 1.5 Employment-to-population ratio 1.6 Proportion of employed people living below $1.25 (PPP) per

day 1.7 Proportion of own-account and contributing family workers

in total employment

Target 1.C: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion ofpeople who suffer from hunger

1.8 Prevalence of underweight children under-five years of age 1.9 Proportion of population below minimum level of dietary

energy consumption

Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education

Target 2.A: Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling

2.1 Net enrolment ratio in primary education 2.2 Proportion of pupils starting grade 1 who reach last grade of

primary 2.3 Literacy rate of 15-24 year-olds, women and men

Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women

Target 3.A: Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education, preferably by 2005, and in all levels of education no later than 2015

3.1 Ratios of girls to boys in primary, secondary and tertiary education

3.2 Share of women in wage employment in the non-agricultural sector

3.3 Proportion of seats held by women in national parliament Goal 4: Reduce child mortality

Target 4.A: Reduce by two-thirds, between 1990 and 2015, the under-five mortality rate

4.1 Under-five mortality rate 4.2 Infant mortality rate 4.3 Proportion of 1 year-old children immunised against

measles Goal 5: Improve maternal health

Target 5.A: Reduce by three quarters, between 1990 and 2015, the maternal mortality ratio

5.1 Maternal mortality ratio 5.2 Proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel

Target 5.B: Achieve, by 2015, universal access to reproductive health

5.3 Contraceptive prevalence rate 5.4 Adolescent birth rate 5.5 Antenatal care coverage (at least one visit and at least four

visits) 5.6 Unmet need for family planning

Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases

Target 6.A: Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the spread of HIV/AIDS

6.1 HIV prevalence among population aged 15-24 years

6.2 Condom use at last high-risk sex

6.3 Proportion of population aged 15-24 years with

comprehensive correct knowledge of HIV/AIDS

6.4 Ratio of school attendance of orphans to school attendance

of non-orphans aged 10-14 years

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Target 6.B:Achieve, by 2010, universal access to treatment for HIV/AIDS for all those who need it

6.5 Proportion of population with advanced HIV infection with access to antiretroviral drugs

Target 6.C: Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the incidence of malaria and other major diseases

6.6 Incidence and death rates associated with malaria 6.7 Proportion of children under 5 sleeping under insecticide-

treated bed nets 6.8 Proportion of children under 5 with fever who are treated

with appropriate anti-malarial drugs 6.9 Incidence, prevalenceand death rates associated with

tuberculosis 6.10 Proportion of tuberculosis cases detected and cured under

directly observed treatment short course

Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability

Target 7.A: Integrate the principles of sustainable development into country policies and programmes and reverse the loss of environmental resources Target 7.B:Reduce biodiversity loss, achieving, by 2010, a significant reduction in the rate of loss

7.1 Proportion of land area covered by forest 7.2 CO2 emissions, total, per capita and per $1 GDP (PPP) 7.3 Consumption of ozone-depleting substances 7.4 Proportion of fish stocks within safe biological limits 7.5 Proportion of total water resources used 7.6 Proportion of terrestrial and marine areas protected 7.7 Proportion of species threatened with extinction

Target 7.C: Halve, by 2015, the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation

7.8 Proportion of population using an improved drinking water source

7.9 Proportion of population using an improved sanitation facility

Target 7.D: By 2020, to have achieved a significant improvement in the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers

7.10 Proportion of urban population living in slumsii

Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development

Target 8.A: Develop further an open, rule-based, predictable, non-discriminatory trading and financial system Includes a commitment to good governance, development and poverty reduction – both nationally and internationally Target 8.B: Address the special needs of the least developed countries Includes: tariff and quota free access for the least developed countries' exports; enhanced programme of debt relief for heavily indebted poor countries (HIPC) and cancellation of official bilateral debt; and more generous ODA for countries committed to poverty reduction Target 8.C: Address the special needs of landlocked developing countries and small island developing States (through the Programme of Action for the Sustainable Development of Small Island Developing States and the outcome of the twenty-second special session of the General Assembly) Target 8.D: Deal comprehensively with the debt problems of developing countries through national and international

Some of the indicators listed below are monitored separately for the least developed countries (LDCs), Africa, landlocked developing countries and small island developing States.

Official development assistance (ODA) 8.1 Net ODA, total and to the least developed countries, as

percentage of OECD/DAC donors’ gross national income 8.2 Proportion of total bilateral, sector-allocable ODA of

OECD/DAC donors to basic social services (basic education, primary health care, nutrition, safe water and sanitation)

8.3 Proportion of bilateral official development assistance of OECD/DAC donors that is untied

8.4 ODA received in landlocked developing countries as a proportion of their gross national incomes

8.5 ODA received in small island developing States as a proportion of their gross national incomes

Market access 8.6 Proportion of total developed country imports (by value and

excluding arms) from developing countries and least developed countries, admitted free of duty

8.7 Average tariffs imposed by developed countries on agricultural products and textiles and clothing from developing countries

8.8 Agricultural support estimate for OECD countries as a percentage of their gross domestic product

8.9 Proportion of ODA provided to help build trade capacity Debt sustainability 8.10 Total number of countries that have reached their HIPC

decision points and number that have reached their HIPC

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measures in order to make debt sustainable in the long term

completion points (cumulative) 8.11 Debt relief committed under HIPC and MDRI Initiatives 8.12 Debt service as a percentage of exports of goods and

services

Target 8.E: In cooperation with pharmaceutical companies, provide access to affordable essential drugs in developing countries

8.13 Proportion of population with access to affordable essential drugs on a sustainable basis

Target 8.F: In cooperation with the private sector, make available the benefits of new technologies, especially information and communications

8.14 Fixed-telephone subscriptions per 100 inhabitants 8.15 Mobile-cellular subscriptions per 100 inhabitants 8.16 Internet users per 100 inhabitants

The Millennium Development Goals and targets come from the Millennium Declaration, signed by 189 countries, including 147 heads of Stateand Government, in September 2000 (http://www.un.org/millennium/declaration/ares552e.htm) and from further agreement by member States at the 2005 World Summit (Resolution adopted by the General Assembly - A/RES/60/1, http://www.un.org/Docs/journal/asp/ws.asp?m=A/RES/60/1). The goals and targets are interrelated and should be seen as a whole. They represent a partnership between the developed countries and the developing countries “to create an environment – at the national and global levels alike – which is conducive to development and the elimination of poverty”.

i For monitoring country poverty trends, indicators based on national poverty lines should be used, where available. ii The actual proportion of people living in slums is measured by a proxy, represented by the urban population living in households with at least one of the four characteristics: (a) lack of access to improved water supply; (b) lack of access to improved sanitation; (c) overcrowding (3 or more persons per room); and (d) dwellings made of non-durable material.

http://www.un.org/millennium/declaration/ares552e.htm

http://www.un.org/Docs/journal/asp/ws.asp?m=A/RES/60/1

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