The NAFTA Sugar Balance & Outlook

Presentation to the International Sweetener ColloquiumOrlando, Florida – February 9, 2009

by Dr. William TierneyLMC International Ltd, Washington, DC

Presentation Structure

• A look at the current environment of supply

and prices

• Short-term outlook: prospects for 2008/09 and

2009/10

• The longer-term outlook

• Conclusions

A Look at the Current Environment of Supply & Prices

The White Premium

• Stocks-to-use ratio for 2007/08 was tight initially

but recovered to 15.2% on the back of USDA

intervention

• S/U ratio doesn’t capture the split of white and raw

• White premium has averaged 12 cents per pound

since February (Savannah) and 15 cents per pound

since July

US White and Raw Sugar Prices and the White Premium

0

10

20

30

40

Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09

Cen

ts/lb

White premium Raw Refined

The White Premium

The high white premium was driven by the perfect storm of:

1. A low share of beet sugar production2. A temporary loss of refining capacity3. limited displacement of Mexican sugar by HFCS4. Inability of USDA to act promptly to raise the TRQ (new Farm Bill measure)

Beet Sugar Share of Total US Sugar Supply vs. the White Premium

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

38% 40% 42% 44% 46% 48% 50%

Beet Sugar (%) Total US Sugar Supply

White

Pre

miu

m (ce

nts

/lb)

2005/06

2009/10

2008/09

The White Premium

• In most years, the white premium has a strong

correlation with the percent share of beet sugar

• This correlation is disrupted when refining

capacity is lost (like in calendar year 2008

through much of 2009)

• Lost refining capacity provides clear upward

pressure on prices, but this is difficult to model

econometrically because of lagged movements

upward (price discovery) and downward (price

stickiness)

Annual US Refining Capacity

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Jan-80 Jan-85 Jan-90 Jan-95 Jan-00 Jan-05

Million tonnes

, raw

sugar

The White Premium

• White premium is the highest it has been since

Katrina

• Prices could have been higher this time

(because of the added element of reduced beet

plantings) but Mexico, with open access,

responded quickly with ramped-up exports

US White Premium and Sugar Exports from Mexico

0

25

50

75

100

Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09

Sugar

exp

ort

s ('0

00 m

etric to

ns)

0

5

10

15

20

White p

remiu

m (cen

ts/lb)

White prem Refined Exports Raw Exports

End-of-Season Stocks-to-Use Ratios

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09

Historical USDA target: 14.5%

Jan WASDE Forecast : 9.9%

The White Premium

• There remains a shortage of refined sugar in

the US market, resulting in high prices.

• Will the USDA increase TRQ imports on April

1st?

• Will they address the problem by increasing

the refined TRQ specifically? Little relief if

they increase raw TRQ.

• Where will the refined sugar come from

and what are the logistical difficulties?

Short-term Supply & Demand Outlook

The Short-term Outlook

• The short-term outlook hinges largely on

USDA’s response to a low projected s/u ratio

• The USDA’s current projection of less than 10%

has not been seen since 1974, a period of

worldwide sugar shortages. The coinciding

price spike that year led to the rapid

development of the HFCS sector in the US.

The Short-term Outlook

• There is a range of scenarios about how USDA could

address the shortages in refined sugar:

• Scenario 1

• USDA is slow to respond, allowing high prices to

endure. Shortfall could last through 2009/10 (Oct-

Sep), because NAFTA production of refined sugar will

likely not be sufficient. NAFTA capacity will increase

some in Jul ’09.

• Scenario 2

• USDA responds quickly to shortfall by adjusting TRQ

for refined sugar upward.

Projected US Sugar Import Requirements in 2008/09 and 2009/10 (‘000 mt)

Scenario 1 Scenario 2

2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2008/09 2009/10

Beginning Stocks 1,208 1,540 1,632 1,503 973 1,503 1,430

Production 6,712 7,662 7,394 7,076 7,388 7,076 7,388

Beet Sugar 4,032 4,543 4,283 3,833 4,028 3,833 4,028

Cane Sugar 2,681 3,119 3,111 3,243 3,361 3,243 3,361

Total Imports 3,124 1,887 2,377 2,264 3,075 2,722 2,617

Mexican Imports 692 79 630 572 550 572 550

ROW Imports 2,432 1,808 1,747 1,693 2,525 2,150 2,067

Total Supply 11,044 11,088 11,402 10,843 11,437 11,300 11,435

Total Use 9,503 9,456 9,900 9,870 9,988 9,870 9,988

Exports 184 383 184 154 181 154 181

Ending Stocks 1,541 1,632 1,503 973 1,448 1,430 1,447

S/U ratio 16.2% 17.3% 15.2% 9.9% 14.5% 14.5% 14.5%

The Short-term Outlook and the Raw/White Split• Reduced refining capacity places a constraint on how much the US can

import as raw sugar

• Refined sugar imports represent the balance between the US total

import need and our estimates of maximum potential raw sugar

imports

• Under either scenario, the US will need to import an estimated

TRQ of 1.1 million metric tons of ROW refined sugar to secure

adequate stocks of useable sugar by Q3 of 2010

• Under Scenario 2, refined TRQ is adjusted upward quickly, allowing

for 733 million metric tons of ROW refined sugar in the country for

2008/09

• However, given the logistical challenges associated with importing

refined sugar from the world market, it is uncertain how effective this

will be in quickly restoring the white premium to its historical level

Projected Composition of US Sugar Imports in 2008/09 & 2009/10 (‘000 mt)

Scenario 1 Scenario 2

2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2008/09 2009/10

Annual Refining Capacity

4,848 5,169 4,636 4,836 5,169 4,836 5,169

Domestic Cane Sugar 2,681 3,119 3,111 3,243 3,361 3,243 3,361

Refining Capacity for Imported Raws

2,167 2,051 1,525 1,593 1,809 1,593 1,809

Total Imports 3,124 1,887 2,377 2,264 3,075 2,722 2,617

Raw Sugar Imports 2,208 1,722 1,879 1,517 1,723 1,517 1,723

Mexican Raws 120 21 443 100 51 100 51

World Market Raws 2,088 1,701 1,436 1,417 1,672 1,417 1,672

Refined Sugar Imports 916 165 498 747 1,353 1,205 894

Mexican Refined 572 58 186 472 499 472 499

World Market Refined 345 107 311 276 854 733 395

The Longer-Term Outlook – 2015

There is a widening gap in the US between domestic production and consumption that is being met with increased imports.

0

1

2

3

4

5

98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07

Import

s (m

illion m

etric to

ns)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Pro

duictio

n, C

onsu

mptio

n (m

illion m

etric tons)

.

Imports Production Consumption

The Longer-term Outlook – Beet Sugar

Beet sugar production over the last two years has taken a beating

on the back of high alternative crop prices:

• 2008/09 production was 2nd lowest since 1994/95

• Gross margins for major field crops were better than for

beets across all growing regions of the US

• Brawley (CA) closed in August and rumors of Sidney going

out raise questions of competiveness of beet in some regions

• Once a factory shuts, history suggests it won’t reopen

Beet sugar production will rebound in 09/10 on the back of high

sugar prices and falling margins for competing crops.

Beet Sugar Production

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.4

4.6

2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10

0.40

0.42

0.44

0.46

0.48

0.50

0.52

0.54

0.56

0.58

Plan

ted area (m

illion acres)

Beet Sugar production Beet Planted Acreage

Bee

t su

gar

pro

duct

ion (m

illion m

etric to

ns)

Area up 4.4%

Alternative Crop Prices

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Oct-03 Oct-04 Oct-05 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08

US$

/bush

el

Corn Wheat Barley Soybeans

The Longer-term Outlook – Cane Sugar

Incident at 800,000 metric ton Savannah refinery – 15% of total US capacity –

highlighted the tightness in refining capacity in the US.

• Slated to resume full production of crystallized sugar at the end of June

LSCPI, Cargill and Imperial partnership is still a possible go, despite credit crunch

• Wouldn’t be ready until 2011 at the earliest

• The extra 1 million metric tons would go a long way to provide slack in capacity,

reducing the volatility, and possibly the value, of the white premium

The outcome of USSC will have tremendous repercussions for the US sugar sector:

• As an inland refinery, loss of accompanying cane acreage would leave the value

of that asset in question – could it function as an inland cane refinery?

• A potential loss of 11% of domestic sugar production

• What will become of offer from the Lawrence Group?

The Longer-term Outlook – Mexico

Ability of Mexico to send sugar to the US is contingent on level of HFCS adoption

• At 50% adoption of HFCS in the Mexican beverage sector would allow export 800,000

mt by 2014

• At 95% adoption of HFCS, akin to levels seen in the US, they could double that

• After large shipment of Mexican sugar to the US post-Katrina, Mexican imports of US

HFCS surged. This could recur as Mexican prices track ascension of US prices

PRONAC (Mexican govt’s sweeteners policy) calls for increased investment in Mexican sugar

industry and exports of 840,000 mt by 2012

• Increased investment in production of “refinado” and infrastructure could go a long

way in alleviating US difficulties of importing refined sugar

There is a remarkable degree of substitutability in Mexico between “refinado” and

“estandar”.

• Mexico will send available “refnado” to the US to meet demand

Mexican Exports of Refined Sugarand US Exports of HFCS

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Oct-03 Oct-04 Oct-05 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08

'000

met

ric to

ns

Mexican Refined Sugar Exports to US US HFCS Exports to Mexicao

Potential Surplus of Mexican Sugar(assuming 50-75-95% HFCS adoption)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

'000

met

ric to

ns

HFCS 95% HFCS 75% HFCS 50%

Mexican Refinado Production and Demand

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Million m

etric to

ns

Refined Sugar Exports Refined Sugar Production

Summary & Conclusions

Summary

US sugar stocks are tight and will fall below 10% for the first time

since 1974 without a TRQ increase by the USDA. Tightness is

most acute in the refined sugar sector due to low beet

plantings and lost refining capacity.

This may appear to be a short-lived imbalance, but other

problems loom on the horizon – USSC, beet factory closures?

Mexico is the logical source to fill supply shortfalls in the US but…

Mexico is unlikely to flood the US with sugar in the near term

Conclusions

If the US is to dig its way out of current sugar deficit, it may need to

import total of 2.7 million mt sugar in ‘08/09 & similar amount in

‘09/10

• Assuming imports of Mexico of just over a half million mt, the

USDA would need to increase TRQ to over 2.1 million mt.

Restricted refining capacity & limited supply from Mexico suggests

that much of the sugar will have to come as refined sugar from world

market.

• Because the consistency of ROW imports is questionable, there

hasn’t been a rush to invest in infrastructure to import ROW

refined sugar, leading to logistical difficulties and higher cost.

• Therefore, an increased TRQ may not alleviate high white

premium as much as one might expect.

Conclusions

Longer term, the US may rely increasingly on imports

Some or all of the increase in imports will come from

Mexico, depending on the degree of HFCS substitution

• However, there will need to be increased

investment in infrastructure to handle increase

imports of Mexican refinado

• Additional capacity to handle more refinado will

help only if supplies from this origin grow

Otherwise, new refining capacity may prove to be

the better solution

Thank You!

wtierney@lmc-dc.com(202) 349-9860www.lmc.co.uk