The Myth of Technology and Sustainable Development

Dennis MeadowsUppsalla University

11.5.15

Two Possible Futures

Year

1900 2000 2100

Future #1

Future #2

One Indicator of OvershootYear of OriginalReport

Today

Problem Technical SolutionOil depletion Solar energy production,

nuclear power, fracking

Hunger Genetically modified food crops

Pollution Cleaner production techniques

Terrorism Surveillance methods

Water scarcity Desalinization, Larger pumps, drip irrigation

Sea level rise Higher sea walls

I do understand technology:• BA in chemistry• Chemist for the Atomic Energy Commission.• Researcher within NASA’s Program on the

Management of Science and Technology. • PhD from MIT specializing in the management

of innovation.• Tenured professor of engineering• Research scientist in Norway, Netherlands,

and Austria. • Director for several new high-tech firms

The Four Fallacies

1. Technology change can be separated from social change.

2. Technology change alone will permit continued growth in population and consumption.

3. The market and democracy will choose the correct technology.

4. Growth in real wealth is still possible.

First Fallacy

Technology change can be separated from social change.

Question

I have two pens. Which of them is more sustainable?

The two pens

Montblanc

Sundance

The Montblanc Pen

• I use it for writing.• It is made from platinum and precious

resin.• It cost about € 250.

The Sundance Pen

• I use it for writing.• It is made from wood, plastic, and recycled

cardboard.• It cost about € 0.50.

Which pen is more sustainable?

• Refer to the Montblanc as pen #1; refer to the Sundance as pen #2.

• Please decide which pen you think is more sustainable and show either 1 or 2 fingers silently to the person sitting next to you.

More Information• I never take the Montblanc pen out of my

office, so I will use it the rest of his life and then pass it on to a relative.

• I loses the Sundance pen almost every time I take it away from my home, so I have to buy many dozens of them each year.

• When the Montblanc pen ink cartridge becomes empty, I buy a refill.

• If I still have the Sundance pen when its ink cartridge becomes empty, I throw the pen away and buy a new one.

I will ask again:Which pen is more sustainable?

• Refer to the Montblanc as pen #1; refer to the Sundance as pen #2.

• Please decide which pen you think is more sustainable and show either 1 or 2 fingers silently to the person sitting next to you.

Main Lessons• Many votes changed after the new information. • The new information did not describe the pens’

physical technology; it described my relationship, habits, and attitudes toward the pens.

• Sustainability is not mainly in the physical technology of the tool, it is in a person’s relationship to the tool.

• New technology will not make society more sustainable, unless it is accompanied by appropriate social changes.

Second Fallacy

Technology change alone will permit continued growth in population and consumption.

CO2 Concentration

World Population

Industrial Production

Four Factors Determine the Amount of CO2 Emissions

© Dennis Meadows; 2007

Third Fallacy

The market and democracy will choose the correct technology.

Easy Problems

Now Future

Bett

er --

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->

Next Evaluation

Action #1

Actual Desired

Action #2

Difficult Problems

Now Future

Bett

er --

----

->

Next Evaluation

Action #1

Action #2

ActualDesired

Fourth Fallacy

Growth in real wealth is still possible.

The Easy Oil is Gone• Oil discoveries peaked in 1960s. • Every year since 1984 oil consumption has

exceeded oil discovery. • In 2009 discoveries were about 5 billion barrels

(bb); consumption was about 31 bb.• Of the world’s 20 largest oil fields, 18 were

discovered 1917 - 1968; 2 in the 1970s; 0 since.

Global Oil Production is Nearing the End of its Plateau

• 1995 - 1999 + 5.5%• 2000 - 2004 + 7.9 %• 2005 - 2009 + 0.4 % - data from the International Statistical Supplement –

2010 edition, International Energy Agency, p. 18

• 2010 - 2030 – 50%* * Projection from Crude Oil – The Supply Outlook,

Energy Watch Group, Feb 2008, p. 12.