The Myth of Jobs Created or Saved
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Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com. V aluEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Princeton, NJ. ValuEngine covers over 5,000 stocks every day. A variety of newsletters and portfolios containing Suttmeier's detailed research, stock picks, and commentary can be found HERE. Suttmeier's Four in Four video and ForexTV Markets Review can be watched on the web HERE. Januar y 13, 2010 – The Myth of Jobs Created or Saved Where are the two million jobs created or saved by the Obama Stimulus? They are not shown in data from the Labor Department. They have not been reflected in recent Fed Beige Books. Waves of Alt-A mortgage resets have only just begun. The Bull in the China Growth Story takes it on the chin from the Bear as Round Eight of the Title Bout begins. Believe me, I wish it were true, but in my judgment the Obama Team of economic advisors should show some real truth about jobs. There has been no evidence of jobs created or saved in recent Beige Books. The Labor Department’s own surveys don’t back up this ridiculous claim with the following release. According to the Labor Department there is 6.4 unemployed workers for each available job opening. That’s up from 6.1 in October and a record high for this statistic. Job openings fell to 2.42 million in November from 2.57 million in October. Put into prospective the peak in job openings was 4.8 million in June 2007. This is additional woes of Main Street. Layoffs may be declining, but hiring does not pick up. So where are the jobs created or saved? I consider the Beige Book as the Gossip Columns from the twelve Federal Rese rve Districts. In early December the Beige Book showed that Housing and Financials were not out of the woods. I do not expect much of a change in today’s Beige Book for the January 26 / 27 FOMC Meeting. Home prices should continue to be flat or declining modestly with home construction weak. Commercial real estate and related construction should be described as very weak and in many cases deteriorating. Loan demand should be described as weak with tight credit standards and steady or deteriorating loan quality. There will be no mention that the Obama Stimulus was creating or saving jobs. Alt-A Mortgage Resets Coming Home to Roost - The wave has begun as thousands of homeowners feel the pinch of skyrocketing monthly mortgage payments as principal and interest rise simultaneously. The value of underlying homes have fallen dramatically since mid-June 2006 making it next to impossible for affected homeowners to even try to make these new payments. It is estimated that 1.3 million mortgages worth close to $400 billion were underwritten in 2004 and 2005 alone and these are in the midst of that fifth year, when monthly payments zoom higher. Sources say that 88% of the Alt-A Option ARM mortgages originated between 2004 and 2007 are up for resets right into 2012. The Theory that China will lead the Global Recovery takes a hit. Asian stock markets declined over night as China moves to curb bank lending, which will slow the pace of economic recovery around the Globe. This appears to be just the first step toward reducing the massive stimulus in China. The China 25 Fund (FXI) ended Tuesday down 3.4% since testing my annual risky level at $44.53 last week.
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Transcript of The Myth of Jobs Created or Saved
8/14/2019 The Myth of Jobs Created or Saved
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/the-myth-of-jobs-created-or-saved 1/3
Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com. ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Princeton, NJ. ValuEngine
covers over 5,000 stocks every day.
A variety of newsletters and portfolios containing Suttmeier's detailed research, stock picks,and commentary can be found HERE.
Suttmeier's Four in Four video and ForexTV Markets Review can be watched on the webHERE.
Januar y 13, 2010 – The Myth of Jobs Created or Saved
Where are the two million jobs created or saved by the Obama Stimulus? They are not shown indata from the Labor Department. They have not been reflected in recent Fed Beige Books.Waves of Alt-A mortgage resets have only just begun. The Bull in the China Growth Story takesit on the chin from the Bear as Round Eight of the Title Bout begins.
Believe me, I wish it were true, but in my judgment the Obama Team of economic advisorsshould show some real truth about jobs. There has been no evidence of jobs created or saved inrecent Beige Books. The Labor Department’s own surveys don’t back up this ridiculous claim with thefollowing release.
According to the Labor Department there is 6.4 unemployed workers for each available job opening.That’s up from 6.1 in October and a record high for this statistic. Job openings fell to 2.42 million inNovember from 2.57 million in October. Put into prospective the peak in job openings was 4.8 million in
June 2007. This is additional woes of Main Street. Layoffs may be declining, but hiring does not pickup. So where are the jobs created or saved?
I consider the Beige Book as the Gossip Columns from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts. Inearly December the Beige Book showed that Housing and Financials were not out of the woods. I donot expect much of a change in today’s Beige Book for the January 26 / 27 FOMC Meeting. Homeprices should continue to be flat or declining modestly with home construction weak. Commercial realestate and related construction should be described as very weak and in many cases deteriorating. Loan demand should be described as weak with tight credit standards and steady or deteriorating loanquality. There will be no mention that the Obama Stimulus was creating or saving jobs.
Alt-A Mortgage Resets Coming Home to Roost - The wave has begun as thousands of homeowners
feel the pinch of skyrocketing monthly mortgage payments as principal and interest rise simultaneously.
The value of underlying homes have fallen dramatically since mid-June 2006 making it next toimpossible for affected homeowners to even try to make these new payments. It is estimated that 1.3million mortgages worth close to $400 billion were underwritten in 2004 and 2005 alone and these arein the midst of that fifth year, when monthly payments zoom higher. Sources say that 88% of the Alt-AOption ARM mortgages originated between 2004 and 2007 are up for resets right into 2012.
The Theory that China will lead the Global Recovery takes a hit. Asian stock markets declined overnight as China moves to curb bank lending, which will slow the pace of economic recovery around theGlobe. This appears to be just the first step toward reducing the massive stimulus in China. The China25 Fund (FXI) ended Tuesday down 3.4% since testing my annual risky level at $44.53 last week.
8/14/2019 The Myth of Jobs Created or Saved
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The 10-Year yield faces a $21 billion supply test today. My monthly support remains at 3.868 withmy semiannual resistance at 3.675, as this week’s pivot at 3.769 remains a magnet.
Chart Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
Comex gold stays below monthly resistance at $1167 with quarterly support at $1085.
Nymex Crude oil found resistance just below $84 with weekly and annual supports at $77.99 and$77.05. Gasoline is higher than it was throughout 2009, which is a direct tax on consumers.
The Dow finally won a round in the Title Bout with the Bear. The score strands at 6 to 1 favoringthe Bull. A close below my weekly pivot at 10,619 today will give round 8 to the Bear. A weekly closebelow my annual support at 10,379 would be a knockout for the Bear. Monthly and annual resistancesare 10,997 and 11,235.
Chart Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
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That’s today’s Four in Four. Have a great day.
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Richard SuttmeierChief Market Strategistwww.ValuEngine.com (800) 381-5576
As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I
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