The Multi-Year Bear Market - led by Housing and Community Banks

download The Multi-Year Bear Market - led by Housing and Community Banks

of 6

Transcript of The Multi-Year Bear Market - led by Housing and Community Banks

  • 8/9/2019 The Multi-Year Bear Market - led by Housing and Community Banks

    1/6

    Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com.ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Princeton, NJ. ValuEngine

    covers over 5,000 stocks every day.

    A variety of newsletters and portfolios containing Suttmeier's detailed research, stock picks,and commentary can be found HERE.

    June 8, 2010 The Mult i -Year Bear Mark et - led by Housing and Comm unity Banks

    US Treasuries near resistances as supply test begins. Gold is nearing its May 14th high at$1249.7 as currency of last resort, and as the euro stays above this weeks support at 1.1863.Crude oil is range-bound between $67.15 per barrel and $75.72 balanced by weak demand andrisks related to Hurricane season. We are not in a bull market correction; we began the secondleg of a multi-year bear market with the April 26th highs. The bear is being led by housing andcommunity banks.

    US Treasury Yields My quarterly support is 3.467 with weekly resistance at 3.010. Supply will betested beginning today with a $36 billion auction of 3-Year notes. Wednesday $21 billion 10-Year notesare auctioned. On Thursday $13 billion 30-Year bonds are auctioned for a total $70 billion this week.For the 3-Year I have annual pivots at 1.202 and 1.139 with weekly resistance at 0.989.

    Chart Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

  • 8/9/2019 The Multi-Year Bear Market - led by Housing and Community Banks

    2/6

    Comex Gold has rising MOJO on its daily chart. My semiannual pivot is $1186.5 with weekly anddaily pivots at $1225.8 and $1243.8, and monthly resistances at $1265.9 and $1277.4. I continue toconsider Gold as the currency of last resort.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    Nymex Crude Oil shows rising MOJO on its daily chart with daily resistance, the 200-day simple

    moving average and my annual risky level at $75.63, $76.75 and $77.05 as resistances. This weekssupport is $67.81. This keeps oil in a trading range between $67.15 and $75.72.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

  • 8/9/2019 The Multi-Year Bear Market - led by Housing and Community Banks

    3/6

    The Euro shows oversold MOJO on its daily chart despite. This weeks support is 1.1863 with a dailypivot at 1.1938, and quarterly and monthly resistances at 1.2450 and 1.2679.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    Daily Dow:shows declining MOJO after failing to take out the 200-day simple moving average at

    10,301 last week. We need daily closes above my weekly pivot at 9,986 to signal some stability, butthat did not happen on Monday. Without that the downside is significant Dow 8,500 before 11,500.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

  • 8/9/2019 The Multi-Year Bear Market - led by Housing and Community Banks

    4/6

    Weekly Dow:shows declining MOJO with quarterly support lagging at 7,490. Weekly closes below myannual pivot at 10,379 keeps the weekly chart negative.

    Chart Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    The Housing Index (HGX) is now down 6.1% year to date after a decline of 27.3% from its April highto May low, and is down 67.1% from its July 2005 high. The weekly chart is negative. My model showsno nearby support with my monthly pivot at $109.23 with the 200-week simple moving average as

    strong resistance at $140.53. This average was a strong support from July 2006 through July 2007. Myanalysis suggests selling strength on housing related stocks.

    Chart Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

  • 8/9/2019 The Multi-Year Bear Market - led by Housing and Community Banks

    5/6

    The Americas Community Bankers Index (ABAQ) is up just 3% year to date following a 17.5%decline since peaking as predicted on April 26th. This puts the index down 51.6% from its December2006 high. ABAQ has a negative weekly chart profile with semiannual support at $146.67, my monthly

    pivot at $163.33 and my semiannual resistance at $181.00 which was tested at the April 26th

    high. Thisanalysis indicates that investors should be selling community banks on strength.

    Chart Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    The Regional Bankers Index (BKX) Is still outperforming year to date up 8.9%, but its down 21.0%since peaking as expected at $58.81 on April 21st. Since peaking in February 2007 the BKX is down61.6%. The weekly chart is negative with my semiannual support at $40.76, a monthly pivot at $48.58and semiannual resistance at $59.12. Time for investors to sell regional banks on strength.

    Chart Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

  • 8/9/2019 The Multi-Year Bear Market - led by Housing and Community Banks

    6/6

    Thats todays Four in Four. Have a great day.

    Richard Suttmeier

    Chief Market Strategistwww.ValuEngine.com(800) 381-5576

    As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. Ihave daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters aswell as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as theValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. I hope that you will go to www.ValuEngine.com and review some of the sampleissues of my research.

    I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.