The Mosaic Company · 2020. 11. 11. · Leverage Mosaic's in -country capabilities to drive...

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Date: Analyst Presentation: Chapter 2 Mosaic Fertilizantes November 9, 2020 The Mosaic Company

Transcript of The Mosaic Company · 2020. 11. 11. · Leverage Mosaic's in -country capabilities to drive...

  • Date:

    Analyst Presentation: Chapter 2Mosaic Fertilizantes

    November 9, 2020

    The Mosaic Company

  • Forward Looking Statements & Non-GAAP Financial MeasuresThis release contains forward-look ing statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include, but are not limited to, statementsabout proposed or pending future transactions or strategic plans and other statements about future financial and operating results. Such statements are based upon the current beliefsand expectations of The Mosaic Company’s management and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to: the economicimpact and operating impacts of the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic, the potential drop in oil demand/production and its impact on the availability and price of sulfur, political andeconomic instability in Brazil or changes in government policy in Brazil, such as higher costs associated with the new mining rules or the implementation of new freight tables; thepredictability and volatility of, and customer expectations about, agriculture, fertilizer, raw material, energy and transportation markets that are subject to competitive and other pressuresand economic and credit market conditions; the level of inventories in the distribution channels for crop nutrients; the effect of future product innovations or development of newtechnologies on demand for our products; changes in foreigncurrency and exchange rates; international trade risks and other risks associated with Mosaic’s international operations andthose of joint ventures in which Mosaic participates, including the performance of the Wa’ad Al Shamal Phosphate Company (also known as MWSPC), the timely development andcommencement of operations of production facilities in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and the future success of current plans for MWSPC and any future changes in those plans;difficulties with realization of the benefits of our long term natural gas based pricing ammonia supply agreement with CF Industries, Inc., including the risk that the cost savings initiallyanticipated from the agreement may not be fully realized over its term or that the price of natural gas or ammonia during the term are at levels at which the pricing is disadvantageous toMosaic; customer defaults; the effects of Mosaic’s decisions to exit business operations or locations; changes in government policy; changes in environmental and other governmentalregulation, including expansion of the types and extent of water resources regulated under federal law, carbon taxes or other greenhouse gas regulation, implementation of numericwater quality standards for the discharge of nutrients into Florida waterways or efforts to reduce the flow of excess nutrients into the Mississippi River basin, the Gulf of Mexico orelsewhere; further developments in judicial or administrative proceedings, or complaints that Mosaic’s operations are adversely impacting nearby farms, business operations orproperties; difficulties or delays in receiving, increased costs of or challenges to necessary governmental permits or approvals or increased financial assurance requirements; resolutionof global tax audit activity; the effectiveness of Mosaic’s processes for managing its strategic priorities; adverse weather conditions affecting operations in Central Florida, the MississippiRiver basin, the Gulf Coast of the United States, Canada or Brazil, and including potential hurricanes, excess heat, cold, snow, rainfall or drought; actual costs of various items differingfrom management’s current estimates, including, among others, asset retirement, environmental remediation, reclamation or other environmental regulation, Canadian resources taxesand royalties, or the costs of the MWSPC; reduction of Mosaic’s available cash and liquidity, and increased leverage, due to its use of cash and/or available debt capacity to fundfinancial assurance requirements and strategic investments; brine inflows at Mosaic’s Esterhazy, Saskatchewan, potash mine or other potash shaft mines; other accidents anddisruptions involving Mosaic’s operations, including potential mine fires, floods, explosions, seismic events, sinkholes or releases of hazardous or volatile chemicals; and risksassociated with cyber security, including reputational loss; as well as other risks and uncertainties reported from time to time in The Mosaic Company’s reports filed with the Securitiesand Exchange Commission. Actual results may differ from those set forth in the forward-looking statements.

    This presentation includes the discussion of forward look ing EBITDA which is a non-GAAP financial measure. We are not providing quantitative reconciliation of forward look ing EBITDAbecause we are unable to predict with reasonable certainty our notable items without unreasonable effort. Historically, our notable items have included, but are not limited to, foreigncurrency transaction gain or loss, unrealized gain or loss on derivatives, acquisition-related fees, discrete tax items, contingencies and certain other gains or losses. These items areuncertain, depend on various factors, and couldhave a material impact on U.S. GAAP reported results for the guidance period.

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  • Mosaic’s Strategic Priorities

    North AmericaTransformationUncover and pursue new opportunities to improve the profitability and competitiveness of our Potash and Phosphates businesses

    Drive Functional Collaboration and EfficiencyRethink and re-engineer outdated and inefficient processes, and continue to look for new ways to improve

    South America Growth EngineLeverage Mosaic's in-country capabilities to drive additional growth and profitability

    Grow and Strengthen Our Product PortfolioPursue diverse opportunities that make us stronger and that yield mutual benefits for Mosaic and our customers

    Act Responsibly

    Be a good corporate citizen and contribute to the vitality of the people and the communities around us

    Optimize Operating Assets and Capital ManagementContinually assess, prioritize and allocate capital across the business and make decision that strengthen our balance sheet

  • 4

    North AmericaTransformation

    Drive Functional Collaboration and Efficiency

    South America Growth Engine

    Grow and Strengthen Our Product Portfolio

    Act Responsibly

    Optimize Operating Assets and Capital Management

    September 18, 2020

    December 10, 2020

    Today

    February 25, 2021

  • Importance of Agriculture to Brazil

    5

    Commodity Global Production Brazil’s

    Production Rank

    Global Exports

    Brazil’s Exports Rank

    Fertilizer demand

    Soybean 37% 1st 51% 1st 44%

    Corn 9% 3rd 9% 2nd 15%

    Sugar 16% 2nd 36% 1st 12%*

    Ethanol 24% 2nd 28% 2nd 12%*

    Coffee 37% 1st 29% 1st 5%

    Cotton 11% 4th 20% 2nd 5%

    Citrus 58% 1st 72% 1st 1%

    Swine 4% 4th 9% 4th

    Poultry 14% 2nd 36% 1st

    Beef 17% 2nd 20% 1st

    Brazil’s Global Position by CommodityAs of 2019

    *Sugar and Ethanol combined

    -100

    -80

    -60

    -40

    -20

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    20152000 20102005 2019

    Brazil’s Trade BalanceUSD billion. As of 2019

    AgricultureTotal Others

    Source: BACEN, USDA, ANDA, Conab and MDIC

    PresenterPresentation NotesBrazilian government encourages the agribusiness:Tax exemptions on products and services exportsConcessions of public railways and ports Infrastructure improvements such as the paving of the BR-163Annual Crop plan with government subsidized interest rates on loans (or credit) to farmers

  • 100 97123 119 115 123

    132 144 135149

    163 166184 194

    208 187

    238 228242

    258 269

    Brazil: A Large, Growing Agricultural Market

    6

    32 34 3741 43 41 39 39 40 39 40 41 42

    45 46 45 46 47 47 48 495 67

    7 6 7 8 8 8 89 10

    1112 12 13 15

    14 1617 17

    200720042000 2001 20132002 2003 2005 2006

    4847

    2008 20142009 2010

    38

    2011 2012

    47

    2015 2016 2017 2018

    49

    2019 2020E

    40

    5447

    4448 5046

    5157

    62 6358 61

    66 67

    58

    Summer Crop 2nd Crop

    2.88% CAGR

    5.05% CAGR

    Source: CONAB

    Planted Areamillions of hectares

    Grains Productionmillion tonnes

    PresenterPresentation NotesTalking points Trade BalanceBrazil’s important contribution to global agribusiness is unquestionable. It is the world’s largest producer and exporter of coffee, sugar, and orange juice, and is highly ranked in the production and export of soybean, corn, ethanol, pork, beef, and poultry chicken, as indicated by the table below. The results harvested today have their roots in colonial times. Today, agribusiness represents ~22% of Brazil’s GDP.Agribusiness exports totaled US$96.8 (R$388) billion last year. That amount represents 43.2 percent of Brazil's total exports, according to the Secretariat of Trade and International Relations of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Supply.The data shows the sector's slight growth in the country's total exports. In 2018, its share had been 42.3 percent.The highlight was the trade in corn, meat, and cotton. Corn registered a record export volume, with 43.25 million tons. The previous record had been set in 2017, with 29.25 million tons.

  • Farm Economics Encourage Growth

    7Source: CONAB, MBAgro, IMEA, Bacen, BVMF, CME GroupBarter Ratio methodology: Soybean price (CME Group price + premium at the ports) vs fertilizer price (Average MAP + MOP price – CFR Brazil)

    810121416182022

    Sep-20Jan-18 Sep-18 May-19 Jan-20

    Barter RatioNumber of 60kg soybean bags/ 1 tonne of fertilizer

    MORE affordable to farmers

    100

    150

    0

    200

    50

    350

    250

    300

    400

    450

    2000 2005 2010 2015 2020E

    Brazil’s Agribusiness RevenueBRL billion

    CropsLivestock

    0

    30

    60

    90

    120

    16/17 17/18 19/2018/19

    +40

    +39

    Soy ProfitabilityR$/60kg bags (Rondonopolis – MT)

    CostPrice Margin

    LESS affordable to farmers

    PresenterPresentation NotesBrazil agribusiness has had very good results due to the very affordable ratio between ag commodities prices and ferts prices, bringing in advance the fertilizer purchase and pulling up farmer revenue

  • 1618

    19

    23 23

    20 21

    2522 23

    25

    2830

    3132

    30

    34 3436 36

    38

    200220012000 2003 2016200720062004 2005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2017 2018 2019 2020E

    Leading to Strong Fertilizer Market

    Historical Brazilian Fertilizer Demand

    4.26% CAGR

    Million tonnes

    8

    Potash and phosphate are key nutrients needed for Brazilian crops.Together, they represented 70% of Brazil’s fertilizer consumption in 2019.

    Source: ANDA, Agroconsult

  • Fertilizer Demand by Brazilian State

    69% of in-country Phosphate production

    Only Potash producer in Brazil

    24% of Brazilian market access(1)

    Mosaic Fertilizantes Leadership

    (1)Excludes Paraguay and Animal Feed

  • Fertilizer Demand by Brazilian State

    69% of in-country Phosphate production

    Only Potash producer in Brazil

    24% of Brazilian market access(1)

    Mosaic Fertilizantes Leadership

    (1)Excludes Paraguay and Animal Feed

  • Overseas Supplier

    Local Producers (B2B)

    Mosaic Fertilizantes(as of 2019)

    Production (B2B) Distribution (B2C)

    Fertilizer Animal Feed Gypsum Fertilizer

    Sales Volume 2.2 million tonnes(1) 0.5 million tonnes 4.4 million tonnes 6.3 million tonnes(2)

    Market Share 6% 47% - 18%

    Customers ~50 ~400 ~16 ~5,000

    Shipments profile Big Bags: 2%Bulk: 98%Big Bags: 58%

    Bulk: 42% Bulk: 100%Big bags: 75%

    Bulk: 17%50kg bags: 8%

    Product mix by nutrient N 0% P 89% K 11% - N 16% P 54% K 30%

    Mosaic Fertilizantes Brazil

    11

    Brazil’s Fertilizers Market Structure

    75%

    5%20%

    Blenders (B2C)END

    USER55%

    40% Dealers

    (1)Excludes Intercompany volume(2)Includes Mosaic imported fertilizers sales to 3rd Party blenders, excludes Paraguay sales

  • Player Blend Facilities in Brazil Total Shipments (B2B+B2C) Market Access

    16 8.5 24%

    Yara 24 9.8 27%

    Fertipar 18 6.9 19%

    Eurochem-FTO* 8 3.3 9%

    Heringer** 9 0.7 2%

    Others(+100 players)

    6.9 19%

    Brazilian Competitors with Distribution

    12

    (1)Excludes Paraguay and Animal Feed(2)Heringer judicial reorganizaiton in 2019 – only active plants

    Source: Mosaic estimates and SIACESP. As of 2019

    (1) (1)

    (2) (2) (2)

    PresenterPresentation NotesMosaic, Yara and Fertipar are growing consistently. Tocantins (EuroChem) – plan to grow through acquisition & new construction. Nutrien – international player looking to Brazil and is growing through acquisition. Heringer has partially recovered its volume in 2020.

  • Grow Distribution

    13

    Platform for best practices

    back office

    DoubleMicroEssentials Volume to

    2 million tonnes

    MaximizeAsset Capacity

    PursueOpportunities

    BuildDigital Markets

    Grow Faster Than the Market5-Year Fertilizer Market Growth CAGR ~2%(1)5-year Distribution CAGR target: 5% to 10%

    (1)Source: MBAgro

  • Transform Production

    14

    Increased efficiency through appropriate investment

    Selective investment to strengthen core assets, with focus on cash generation

    Develop co-products markets

  • Transformation: Continuous Improvement

    15

    Mosaic Fertilizantes has been successfully using a formalized transformation process across the business over the past three years.

    Transformation remains critical to reach 2023 targets.

    Ideas Validation Planning Execution Measure

    of ideas of ideas executedTHOUSANDS HUNDREDS

    Transformation 1.0~$330mm in benefits

    Transformation 2.0~$200mm in benefits

  • Mosaic Fertilizantes Transformation Progress

    16

    $100

    $275$158

    $330

    20192018

    Cummulative Target Actual

    Transformation 1.0Adjusted EBITDA growth, in $mm

    Target: $275mm by 2020Baseline: 2017

    $50$120

    $200

    $100$150

    $200

    $200

    $120

    $50

    2022E2020E 2021E

    $100

    $150

    $200

    Transformation 2.0Adjusted EBITDA growth, in $mm

    Target: $200mm by 2022Baseline: 2019

    Transformation 1.0 Success:Net annual synergies of $330mm achieved one year ahead of target

    Transformation 2.0:New ideas are expected to generate more

    than $200mm in synergies until 2022

    Latest EstimatesCummulative Target

  • MOSAIC CONFIDENTIAL 17

    • Increase production and efficiency at Uberaba through the implementation of advanced process controls and analytics.

    Concentrates Process Control

    Operations

    • Increase mass recovery and reduce rock processing costs through: automation, advanced process control and new mineral processing technologies.

    Mine Optimization Mass Recovery

    Operations

    • Reduce downtime and maintenance using advanced analytics.

    Predictive Maintenance

    Operations

    Fleet and Diesel Management

    • System improvements and new software to increase mining fleet efficiency

    Operations

    Key Initiatives in Progress

  • MOSAIC CONFIDENTIAL

    Key Initiatives in Progress

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    • Utilizing a suite of tools to improve margins through quote management, data analytics and pricing guidance utilizing machine learning and artificial intelligence

    Price Optimization Project

    Commercial

    • Lead generation (new customers) and digital marketing

    • E-commerce pilot for small customers

    Digital Customer Strategy

    Commercial

    • Improve truck waiting time through digital tools and automating process

    Trucks 4.0

    Commercial

    • Develop BaSiCa product, which on top of incremental revenue, reduces water treatment cost in Uberaba.

    • Increase co-products sales (gypsum, fluosilicic acid and sulfuric acid)

    New Product/Markets

    Commercial

    PresenterPresentation NotesPrice Optimization Project - ‘suite of tools’ are:Configure, Price, Quote (CPQ) – standardize the process to calculate prices which should reduce errors, reduce the time to develop a quote and streamlines contract entry in to SAP.Profit Analyzer (PA) – has a series of out-of-the-box ‘algorithms’ that can be applied to the pricing data to identify opportunities to adjust prices to maximize profitability (allows price / volume trade-off analysis) Deal Price Guidance (DPG) – provides ‘suggestions’ on price levels (minimum through maximum price)  to the sales team when they are developing the quote utilizing AI and machine learning

  • Phosphate Rock Cost

    19

    Phosphate Mining ($ in mm) 2020 2021 2022 2023Transformation EBITDA impact $34 $45 $56 $56Other initiatives EBITDA impact - $8 $9 $12Transformation Capex $12 $22 $11 -Other initiatives Capex - $9 $9 $7

    Phosphate Rock Costs

    2019

    3Q2020

    2021

    2023

    R$ 310

    R$ 315

    R$ 320

    R$ 325

    R$ 330

    R$ 335

    2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

    Cas

    h C

    ost p

    er T

    onne

    (R$)

    Years

    (1) Target as disclosed on 2019 Analyst Day is the same basis as the 2023 target(2) Target as disclosed on 2020 Analyst Presentation Chapter 1

    (1)

    (2)

    PresenterPresentation Notes

  • Phosphate Conversion Cost

    20

    Phosphate Conversion ($ in mm) 2020 2021 2022 2023Transformation EBITDA impact $50 $67 $84 $84Other initiatives EBITDA impact - $1 $2 $2Transformation Capex $17 $5 $11 -Other initiatives Capex - $4 $4 $3

    Phosphate Conversion Costs

    2019 3Q2020

    2021

    2023

    R$ 200

    R$ 220

    R$ 240

    R$ 260

    R$ 280

    R$ 300

    R$ 320

    R$ 340

    R$ 360

    2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

    Cas

    h C

    ost p

    er T

    onne

    (R$)

    Years

    (1)

    (2)

    (1) Target as disclosed on 2019 Analyst Day is the same basis as the 2023 target.(2) Target as disclosed on 2020 Analyst Presentation Chapter 1

    PresenterPresentation Notes

  • Combined Adjusted EBITDA(1) Growth

    21

    $0

    $50

    $100

    $150

    $200

    $250

    $300

    $350

    $400

    2020 2021 2022 2023

    Adjusted EBITDA(1) Benefits from Identified Initiatives*

    Others

    Distribution Growth

    Transformation 2.0 - Others

    Transformation 2.0 - Operations

    Transformation 2.0 - Commercial

    ~$230~$220~$160

    ~$100

    $ in millions

    Growth CapEx ($ mm) 2021 2022 2023Transformation 2.0 $25 $20 -

    Opportunity Growth $15 $15 $10

    Total Growth Capex ($ mm) $40 $35 $10(1)See non GAAP financial measures* Relative to the 2019 base year

    Foreign exchange rates and inflation

    assumptions will impact realized EBITDA.

  • ESG and Issues Management

    22

    Ensuring tailings dams exceed new state and federal dam regulations

    Community investment in Food, Water, Education and Local Development (Mosaic Institute)

    ESG agenda reflecting Mosaic’s global priorities, with strong focus on Diversity

    COVID-19: Emergency health and food relief to 80+ communities

  • Adjusted EBITDA* Growth

    23

    $0$100$200$300$400$500$600$700$800$900

    $1,000

    2020 2021 2022 2023

    Expected Increase in EBITDA* from Identified Initiatives

    Mosaic FertilizantesNorth America

    ~$700~$600

    ~$440

    ~$275(2)

    $ in millions

    Growth CapEx ($ mm) 2021 2022 2023North America(1) $215 $115 $70

    Mosaic Fertilizantes $40 $35 $10

    Total Growth Ex $255 $150 $80

    (1) Includes Esterhazy K3 project capital(2) $225 million in prior disclosures on growth from 2019 plus $50 million incremental transformation in Mosaic Fertilizantes* See non GAAP financial measures

  • QUESTIONS?

    PresenterPresentation NotesBefore opening for questions, like to thank each of you again for what we have accomplished this year – despite global pandemic and difficult, but improving, market conditions.I know many of you facing tremendous stress in personal lives – trying to balance work, family and health in ways that were unimaginable just 12 months ago. Also recognize that transforming business brings additional layers of change as we reshape who we are, how we operate and how we are organized. Want you to know that I understand and appreciate what you do for Mosaic each and every dayI’m incredibly proud to lead this company and couldn’t ask for a better global team So please accept my thanks, and like all of you, I look forward to a better, brighter future ahead. With that, let’s move to your questions. Sue, do we have any in the queue?

    Analyst Presentation: Chapter 2�Mosaic FertilizantesForward Looking Statements & Non-GAAP Financial MeasuresMosaic’s Strategic PrioritiesSeptember 18, 2020Importance of Agriculture to BrazilBrazil: A Large, Growing Agricultural MarketFarm Economics Encourage GrowthLeading to Strong Fertilizer MarketFertilizer Demand by Brazilian StateFertilizer Demand by Brazilian StateMosaic Fertilizantes BrazilBrazilian Competitors with DistributionGrow DistributionTransform ProductionTransformation: Continuous ImprovementMosaic Fertilizantes Transformation ProgressKey Initiatives in ProgressKey Initiatives in ProgressPhosphate Rock CostPhosphate Conversion CostCombined Adjusted EBITDA(1) GrowthESG and Issues ManagementAdjusted EBITDA* GrowthSlide Number 24