The MINCOME Project...Mincome •1974 –1979 –Women just entering labour force in large numbers...
Transcript of The MINCOME Project...Mincome •1974 –1979 –Women just entering labour force in large numbers...
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The MINCOME Projectand Ontario’s
BIG Experiment
Evelyn L Forget
University of Manitoba
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Mincome
• 1974 – 1979– Women just entering labour force in large numbers– Relatively simple income assistance landscape– Many social programs were being expanded– Money flowed for 3 years (1975 – 1978)
• Canadian counterpart to US Negative Income TaxExperiments
• Cost-shared by federal (75%) and provincial (25%) governments
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MINCOME
PURPOSE: what effects will a Basic Income have on the labour market?
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Design
• 3 sites in Manitoba
– Winnipeg (population = 450,000): standard RCT
• [families with head < 58 years old]
– Dauphin (population = 10,000): saturation site
• everyone > 18 was welcome to apply and received money if income was low enough
– Dispersed rural sites: was primarily designed as control for Dauphin
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Design
• Overall sample size = 1300 individuals or families
• PAYMENT DESIGN: Negative Income Tax (refundable tax credit)– Families received money for three years
– Base rate slightly above “Mother’s Allowance”
– Benefit was taxed back by 50 cents for every dollar earned in Dauphin
– In Winnipeg, 7 different payout and tax-back rates were designed
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DAUPHIN
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What happened to the project?
• Families were paid and data collected
• Provincial government changed in 1976
– Mincome lost provincial support
• Federal minority government was hanging on by a thread
– Other economic priorities took precedence
• Experiment ended as planned but researchers demanded more funding for analysis
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What happened to the project?
Library and Archives Canada
1800 boxes of paper files. No database had been constructed.
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Fifteen years later:
Hum, D. and W. Simpson. 1991. Income Maintenance, Work Effort, and the Canadian MINCOME Experiment. A study prepared for the Economic Council of Canada. Ottawa: Canadian Communications Group.
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Hum and Simpson found:
• Men worked 1% fewer hours
• Women worked 3% fewer hours
• 2 groups had larger reactions
– Married women stayed out of workforce longer when they gave birth
– “young unattached males” significantly reduced work effort
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Almost twenty years later, I went looking for the “young, unattached
males”
• I was interested in:
– Quality of Life
– Education
– Health, especially mental health outcomes
• I used administrative data collected by the province
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In Dauphin, high school completion increased
Grade 12 Enrolment as % Previous Year Grade 11
Enrolment
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
Dauphin
Winnipeg
Non-Winnipeg
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Hospitalization Rates
• Fell 8.5% relative to controls during experiment
• Primary reasons
– Fewer accident and injury hospitalizations
– Fewer hospitalizations due to mental health issues
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Physician contacts– same pattern
• Slight decline in overall physician visits among Dauphin residents during MINCOME relative to controls
• Only mental health diagnoses are significant
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Basic Income In Hamilton, Lindsay, Thunder Bay, Ontario
• A 3-year experiment
• 1,000 subjects and 1,000
Controls in each of Hamilton and
Thunder Bay; 2,000 subjects in Lindsay
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HOW WILL THEY KNOW IF THE EXPERIMENT WORKED?
• Poverty reduction, food security__________• Physical and mental health• Career and life decisions (job training, family formation, parenting)• Education• Savings and investment decisions; financial insecurity• Work decisions, unpaid work, gender, labour market impact• Mobility and housing___________• Perceptions of citizenship and inclusion• Community impacts
___________• Administrative costs• Impacts on other social programmes
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