The Millennial Strategy€¦ · The Millennial Strategy Web-survey of millennials in the...

The Millennial Strategy Web-survey of millennials in the battleground

October 2016

1

Methodology Battleground Web-Survey of 1,000 Millennial Likely Voters. This online survey took place October 1-4 in 11 presidential battleground states. Likely voters were determined based on stated intention of voting in 2016, and vote history in 2012 and 2014. Millennials were defined as being born in 1980 or later. Data shown in this deck is among all 2016 likely millennial voters unless otherwise noted. Millennials from the following presidential battleground states were included: AZ, CO, FL, IA, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA, and WI. Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation in the online panel rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error can be calculated. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and measurement error. If this were a probability sample the margin of error would be +/- 3.10 percent, margin of error would be higher among regional and demographic subgroups. Regression analysis. A series of fractional logistic regressions were conducted to obtain the marginal effects of the explanatory variable (presidential vote, interest in election) on outcome variables (messages and statements), representing the change in outcome probabilities estimated for the explanatory variable, all else held equal. No causation is implied by these results.

54

29

14 3

HillaryClinton

DonaldTrump

Johnson Stein

4 – Way Vote

+25

60

34

Hillary Clinton Donald Trump

Thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --

Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson, or Green Party candidate Jill Stein?

+26

Clinton starting to see big margins with millennials

2

2 – Way Vote

64

34

54

29

14 3

46 51

44

35

17 4

Obama Romney Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Obama Romney Clinton Trump Johnson Stein

I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote

for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson or Green Party Candidate Jill Stein?

Clinton close to ’12 margin, running better with white millennials

3

+30 +25 +5

Millennials White Millennials

2016 2012 2016 2012

+9

+14 -5

39

9 2 4 8

0 6

32

Loyalist Supporter Conditional Vulnerable Winnable In Reach Peripheral Unreachable

21

4 1 2

10

1 7

52

Loyalist Supporter Conditional Vulnerable Winnable In Reach Peripheral Unreachable

Clinton

Trump

Not Clinton

Not Trump

4

Potential: 62%

Potential: 38%

Huge “Never Trump” contingent

49 58

42

64

31 27

37

23 20 14

21 13

Thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- Democrat Hillary

Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson, or Green Party candidate Jill Stein?

5

+5 +18

Men Women

Marriage Gap: 36

+31 +41

Unmarried Women

Gender Gap: 13

Married Women

Trump Johnson/Stein

Clinton Trump Johnson/Stein



Clinton

Unmarried women are driving the Clinton margin

42

64

33

53

37

23

45

31

21

13

22 16



6

+12 +5

Married Women Unmarried

Women

+41 +22

White Unmarried

Women

White Married

Women

Trump Johnson/Stein




Clinton

Including white unmarried women

49

31

20

58

27

14

42

35

24

47

36

18







7

+7 +18

Men Women

+31 +11

White Women White Men

Little difference between white men and women

50

30

20

44 41

16

41

34

25

42 36

22







8

+7 +20

White College

Women

White Non-

College Women

+3 +6

White Non-

College Men

White College

Men

Clinton has big lead with white college & working class women

91

2 5 3

90

3 5 2

96

2

96

3

HillaryClinton

DonaldTrump

Johnson Stein HillaryClinton

DonaldTrump


DonaldTrump

HillaryClinton

DonaldTrump

Initial Vote

+89

Thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for

90% of Democratic millennials consolidated, potential for 95+

9

Re-Vote

+87 +94

Democratic Base Millennials

+93

Initial Vote Re-Vote

-2 -1

6

75

19 8

77

14 1 10

85

10

85

HillaryClinton

DonaldTrump

Johnson HillaryClinton

DonaldTrump


DonaldTrump

Clinton Trump

Initial Vote

+69


Trump has only 75% of GOP millennials & they don’t consolidate

10

Re-Vote

+69 +75

Base Republican Millennials

+75


-- --

22 20

56

35

49

8

Democrats &lean Dems

Independents Republicans &lean Reps

Obama Romney Johnson

Thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --

Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson, or Green Party candidate Jill Stein?

Johnson voters are mostly Republican

11

+34

Party ID 2012 Voters

Johnson Voters

+14

32

54

17

69 15

77

Very warm (75-100) Warm (51-74) Very cool (0-25) Cool (26-49)

12

Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a

VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold.

Mean: 61.3

Net: +39

Gary Johnson

Net: -60

Mean: 20.9

Johnson voters are strongly anti-Trump

Donald Trump

Johnson Voters

13

WILL MILLENNIALS VOTE?

71

49 52 52

38

52 47 48

55 52 51

48 47 45

How interested are you in the November elections for President, U.S. Congress and other state and local offices? Please rate your interest from 1 to 10, with 1 meaning that you have no interest in this election and 10 meaning that you are extremely interested. You can choose any number between 1 and 10.

The biggest question: will millennials turn out?

14

% 10 – Extremely Interested

16

10

10

14

50

33

35

42

14

34

31

22

50

67

65

58

Millennials want a revolution, including half of Clinton voters

15

Sanders Voters

Third Party Voters

Clinton voters

Millennials

Below are a few statements about the presidential election and issues facing the country. For each, please indicate how much

you agree or disagree with that statement.

NET

+34

+16

+30

--

Disagree Agree

We need a revolution in this country and we don't have time for incremental change.

18 11 12 10 21 22 16 13

42 49 45 47 39 38 46 49

50 57 61 61 56 54 59 63

Very warm (75-100) Warm (51-74) Very cool (0-25) Cool (26-49)

Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a

VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold.

Mean: 29.0

Net: -51 Net: -32

Mean: 35.3

Big Banks CEOs of Large

Businesses

Deep anti-corporate mood among millennials

Wall Street

Mean: 30.2

Net: -49

Mean: 35.1

Net: -35 Net: -50

Mean: 29.5

Mean: 31.6

Net: -43

Clinton Voters

Millennials Clinton Voters

Millennials Clinton Voters

Millennials

16

Mean: 27.7

Net: -46

Trickledown

Economics

Mean: 33.2

Net: -32

Clinton Voters

Millennials

24

13

48

38

25

31

52

62

For each, please indicate how much you agree or disagree with that statement.

17

They do think the outcome of this election will matter

On the issues important to me, there is no real difference between Hillary

Clinton and Donald Trump.

+4

+24

No matter who is elected in November, it won't make much difference for people

like me.

Agree Disagree

32

52

18

47

Never for Clinton Strongly For Clinton to Stop Trump

-5

I could never vote for Hillary Clinton, even if that means Donald Trump

becomes president.

Which one of the following statements comes closer to your point of view, even if neither is exactly right.

About half of Third Party voters might shift to stop Trump

18

If it seems like Donald Trump might win the election, I would vote for Hillary

Clinton to stop him.

Could Never Vote for Clinton Would Vote Clinton to Stop Trump

Third Party Voters

74

5 11 9

Clinton Trump Johnson Stein

19

Sanders Primary Voters

Thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat

Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson, or Green Party Candidate Jill Stein?

Quarter of Sanders millennials holding back

25 percent holding back

16

14

49

33

19

41

19

24

46

31

51

67

81

59

Concerns Clinton beholden to special interest holding them back

20

Third Party Voters

Winnables/In-reach

Sanders voters

Millennials

Below are some statements. For each statement, please tell me if you agree or disagree with it.

NET

+34

+18

+62

+2

Disagree Agree

Hillary Clinton is too beholden to special interests to look out for people like me.

21

AN ECONOMIC MESSAGE TO

MOTIVATE MILLENNIALS

38 33

40

27 36

32 37

32

HillaryClinton

DonaldTrump

HillaryClinton

DonaldTrump

HillaryClinton

DonaldTrump

HillaryClinton

DonaldTrump

Initial Vote

+5


Third Party voters shift when they hear Clinton economic message

& contrasts, no movement when exposed to Johnson attacks

22

Re-Vote

REASONS TO VOTE FOR CLINTON DOUBTS ABOUT JOHNSON

+13 +4

+8 +1


+5

Third Party Voters – in 2 way

TAKE ON TRICKLE DOWN: I think it's time that the wealthy and corporations paid their fair

share to support this country, because they have made all the gains in the economy. But the

plan Donald Trump has put forward it is Trumped-up trickle down. His plan would have the

biggest tax cuts for the top one percent that we've ever had, including a 4 billion dollar tax

break for his family. Slashing taxes on the wealthy hasn't worked. It got us into the mess we

were in, in 2008. Broad-based growth is what we need in America, not more advantages for

people at the very top.

30

33

35

35

28

31

83

77

82

Very convincing

Somewhat convincing

A little convincing

These are some statements from Hillary Clinton. How convincing is each statement?

Strong support for Clinton economic messages

CLINTON ECONOMIC MESSAGES

OPPORTUNITY: Inclusive growth is what we need in America. That includes building up

and investing in the middle class, but also addressing implicit bias in ourselves and our

police officers, taking aim at systemic racism in our criminal justice system, and ensuring the

color of your skin doesn't determine where you live, the quality of your education, or what

jobs you can get. We cannot just say law and order. Inclusive growth means all Americans

have the opportunity to go to college, start a business and pursue their dreams.

ECONOMY FOR EVERYONE: We have to build an economy that works for everyone, not

just those at the top. We have to invest in infrastructure, innovation and technology, and

renewable energy. We have to create a fairer economy by raising the national minimum

wage, guaranteeing equal pay for women, and ensuring workers share in the profits they

make, not just the executives at the top. We need to do more to support people struggling to

balance family and work, like ensuring paid family leave, and affordable child care and debt-

free college. And let's do it by having the wealthy pay their fair share and close the corporate

loopholes.

23

25

25

23

27

25

23

68

74

77

Take ontrickledown

Economy foreveryone

Opportunity

Very convincing Somewhat convincing

24

50

47

42

32

27

34

94

89

95

Economy foreveryone

Take ontrickledown

Opportunity

Trickledown economic message appeals to key millennial targets

37

35

28

33

32

36

82

82

92

Take ontrickledown

Economy foreveryone

Opportunity

Third Party Voters Winnable/In-reach Sanders Voters

These are some statements from Hillary Clinton. How convincing is each statement?

23

23

24

21

25

26

25

30

69

67

68

68

Very convincingSomewhat convincing

Either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will be elected President in November. Here are some reasons why people say it is

important to NOT vote for Gary Johnson and instead vote for Hillary Clinton. How convincing is each statement?

Contrast on taxation leading reason to vote for Clinton

REASONS TO VOTE FOR CLINTON

TRICKLE-DOWN ECONOMICS: Clinton wants to end the reign of trickle-down economics and raise taxes on the wealthy who have seen all the new income gains so they pay their fair share and so we can invest in the middle class. Trump will enact the biggest tax cut for the one percent in history, including a 4 billion dollar tax break for his family, and make inequality even worse.

REPRODUCTIVE RIGHTS & HEALTH: Clinton will fight back against attempts restrict access to quality, affordable reproductive health care and protect funding for Planned Parenthood. And she will defend access to affordable contraception, preventive care, and safe and legal abortion. Trump wants to criminalize abortion and said that a woman who seeks an abortion should be punished.

CLIMATE: Clinton understands that climate change is a real threat. She wants to make America the world's clean energy superpower, protect regulations on polluters, and uphold the Paris Climate Change Agreement. Donald Trump said global warming was a hoax made up by the Chinese. He wants to eliminate the EPA, give more tax breaks to oil companies, roll back regulations on coal plants, and gets his energy policies straight from oil company CEOs.

SECURITY: Clinton is prepared to be Commander in Chief. She has a deep knowledge of foreign affairs and national security and has the diplomatic skills and judgement to pursue our interests abroad and keep us safe at home. Trump lacks the temperament to be Commander in Chief. He wants to roll back our commitment to NATO allies, and praises authoritarian adversaries like Vladimir Putin.

25

14

14

13

21

19

23

59

59

65

Reproductive rights& health

Trickle-down

Climate change

Very convincing Somewhat convincing

26

15

15

9

24

22

29

69

69

68

Reproductiverights & health

Trickle-down

Climate change

Taxes, climate & abortion contrasts key for target groups

23

21

17

30

35

43

86

91

94

Trickle-down

Security &foreign affairs

Climate change

Third Party Voters Winnable/In-reach Sanders Voters

Either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will be elected President in November. Here are some reasons why people say it is

important to NOT vote for Gary Johnson and instead vote for Hillary Clinton. How convincing is each statement?

REASONS TO VOTE FOR CLINTON

11

14

23

32

39

38

44

28

22

28

77

68

61

62

Most won’t vote for someone who wouldn’t tackle climate

27

Third Party Voters

Winnables/In-reach

Sanders voters

Millennials

Below are some statements. For each statement, please tell me if you agree or disagree with it.

NET

+36

+24

+22

+54

Disagree Agree

Climate change is a severe threat and I won't vote for a candidate who won't take action to address it.

27 44

12 10

21

25

28 11

59

84

66

38

Millennials Sanders Voters Winnable/In-reach Third Party Voters

Much more likelySomewhat more likelyA little more likely

Below are some statements about why some people say they are voting for Hillary Clinton. How likely are you to vote for Hillary

Clinton after reading each statement?

28

Sanders is a key messenger for reaching millennials

Bernie Sanders says that Hillary Clinton and the Democratic Party have the most progressive platform in history. He has said that they agree on ending Citizens United, to stopping the

new TPP trade deal, reining in Wall Street and making sure the wealthiest corporations and people start paying their fair share of taxes. And she worked with Senator Sanders on a bold

plan to make college affordable and debt-free.

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