The Midterm Referendum on Obama · 2015-02-19 · The Midterm Referendum on Obama Professor Morris...
Transcript of The Midterm Referendum on Obama · 2015-02-19 · The Midterm Referendum on Obama Professor Morris...
Crawford School of Economics and Government, CAP
Wednesday 10 November 2010
2.00pm – 3.30pm
The Midterm Referendum on Obama
Professor Morris Fiorina and Professor James Fallows
The 2010 Elections
Morris Fiorina
November 10, 2010
The Political Scientist’s Mantra:
A year (or two) in politics is an eternity
Karl Rove, 2003
The real prize is creating a Republican majority that would be as solid as, say, the Democratic coalition that Franklin Roosevelt created--a majority that would last for a generation …
(Nicholas Lemann interview, New Yorker, May 12, 2003.
James Carville, 2009
40 More Years: How the Democrats will
Rule the Next Generation
(New York: Simon & Schuster, 2009)
Little Change in Voter Ideology
Source: GSS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Liberal Moderate Conservative
Per
cen
t (%
)
2010 Democratic Losses
House 63-65 seats
Senate 6 seats
Governors 7 states
State Legislatures 17 (?) chambers
State Legislators 680+
Peace and Prosperity Voting in US Presidential
Elections: 1952-2008
1980
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1952
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
40
45
50
55
60
65
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Incu
mb
en
t Sh
are
of
Two
-Par
ty V
ote
(%
)
Real Income Growth and Militiary Fatalities Combined
2008
Democratic Casualty List
49 Dem incumbents, 14 Dem open seats
Class of 2006: 11/21 defeated
Class of 2008: 21/24 defeated
48 Dems in McCain districts: 36 lost
40 DIncs in McCain districts: 28 lost
McCain District Inc (28) Casualties
Voted no on HC and C&T: 8 / 15
Voted yes on one: 13 / 16
Voted yes on both: 7 / 7
Electoral Over-Interpretation
• Jimmy Carter 1976
• Bill Clinton 1992
• Newt Gingrich 1994
• George Bush 2004
• Barack Obama 2008
“… generations from now, we will be able to
look back and tell our children … that this
was the moment when we began to provide
care for the sick and good jobs for the
jobless; this was the moment when the rise
of the oceans began to slow and our planet
began to heal.”
Barack Obama, June 4, 2008
Approval Rating of George W. Bush
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Feb-0
1
May
-01
Aug-0
1
Nov
-01
Feb-0
2
May
-02
Aug-0
2
Nov
-02
Feb-0
3
May
-03
Aug-0
3
Nov
-03
Feb-0
4
May
-04
Aug-0
4
Nov
-04
Feb-0
5
May
-05
Aug-0
5
Nov
-05
Feb-0
6
May
-06
Aug-0
6
Nov
-06
Feb-0
7
May
-07
Aug-0
7
Nov
-07
Feb-0
8
May
-08
Aug-0
8
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Ap
pro
vin
g o
f G
eo
rge
W B
us
h's
Jo
b A
s P
res
ide
nt
Source: The Gallup Organization
State of the Country
Perceptions of Barack Obama’s Policies
Do you think the policies that Barack Obama has pursued as President
have been mostly liberal, mostly moderate or mostly conservative?
Source: The Gallup Organization
Note: November 2008 data based on question asking “Just your best guess, do you think the policies that Barack Obama will pursue as President will be mostly liberal, mostly moderate, or mostly conservative?”
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09
Perc
en
t
% Mostly Liberal % Mostly Moderate % Mostly Conservative
Health Care
Obama Job Approval
.
Confidence in Congress
Opinion of Speaker of House, Nancy
Pelosi
Does the US Representative in Your
Congressional District Deserve Re-Election?
Obama Approval Among Independents
The Tea Party ?
Some Tea Party Facts
How Big?
They are Republicans
Focus on Deficits / Debt / Size of Gov’t
Support Entitlements
Sarah Palin not Qualified to be President
Tea Party Candidates
House (129)
14 in Republican districts
33 in Toss-up districts
Senate (9)
4 in Republican states
1 in Democratic state
4 in toss-up states
“Anti-Incumbent Wave Rolls On”
(not)
House Primaries
Incumbents Running 393
Incumbents Winning 389
Senate Primaries
Incumbents Running 25
Incumbents Winning 22
Tea Party Impact in Senate
None or Minimal
Alaska, Florida, Pennsylvania, Utah
Positive
Wisconsin
Negative
Colorado, Delaware, Nevada
The 2010 Delaware Senate Primary
Registered voters 682,000
Registered Republicans 182,800 (29% of registered)
Republican Primary Vote 57,580 (31% of Republicans)
O’Donnell Vote 30,560 (< 5% of registered)
If Republicans Win Control of the
House …
Should _______ compromise or stick with principles?
Obama 69 %
Republicans 78
Democrats 76
CBS/NYT October 21-26
If Republicans Win Control of the
House …
Will _______ try to work with _______ in order to
get things done?
Obama will 72 %
Republicans will 46
Thank you
Era of Indecision:
Presidential Election Results
Year Democrat Republican
1876 50.97% 47.95%*
1880 48.25% 48.27%*
1884 48.50%* 48.25%
1888 48.62% 47.82%*
1892 46.05%* 42.96%
Note: * Electoral College Winner
Era of Indecision:
Control of Congress
Year House Senate
1874 D R
1876 D R
1878 D D
1880 R Tie (R)
1882 D R
1884 D R
1886 D R
1888 R R
1890 D R
1892 D D
1984 R R
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Services/Spending
Insurance
Aid to Minorities
Jobs/SOL
Military Spending
ANES Policy Views: 1984
Pe
rce
nt
Ideological Position
Little Change on Policy Issues*
Source: 2008 ANES
* “Haven’t thought much about it” responses recoded as moderates
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Services/Spending
Insurance
Aid to Minorities
Jobs/SOL
Military Spending
ANES Policy Views: 2008
Pe
rce
nt
Ideological Position
Small Swings to the GOP
2006 to 2010 Midterm Elections
• Liberals (-6)
• African-Americans (-2)
• Mothers (+1)
• "Other" religion (+2)
• Age 18-29 (+5)
• No high school (+7)
• Union households (+8)
• Big city voters (+8)
Big Swings to the GOP 2006 to 2010 Midterm Elections
• Independents (+36)
• Rural voters (+25)
• Northeast voters (+20)
• Age 65 and older (+21)
• Catholics (+21)
• Whites (+19)
• High school grads (+19)
• Income over $200,000 (+13)
• Income under $50,000 (+13)
Most Important Problem Facing Country
Source: The Gallup Organization
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10
Economy Jobs/Unemployment Health Care
% S
tati
ng
Issu
e is
"M
ost
Imp
ort
ant"
Congressional Job Approval
Generic Ballot
Opinion of Speaker of House, Nancy
Pelosi
Final Thought
2008: Should Republicans really want to win
the Presidency ?
2010: Should Republicans really want to win
the Congress ?
1994 as Template for 2010?
Normal Mid-Term Loss √
Issues √
Redistricting X
Scandal X
Obama Ratings in Perspective:
Presidential Midterm Approval Ratings
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Tr
um
an
Tru
man
Eise
nh
ow
er
Eise
nh
ow
er
Ken
ned
y
Joh
nso
n
Nix
on
Ford
Car
ter
Rea
gan
Rea
gan
GH
W B
ush
Clin
ton
Clin
ton
GW
Bu
sh
GW
Bu
sh
Ob
ama
1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
% A
pp
rova
l
Source: The Gallup Organization
Hibbs’ Bread and Peace Model: Real Income Growth and the
Two-Party Vote Share of the Incumbent Party’s Presidential
Candidate, 1952 -1996
Optimism About Government
Source: ABC News Question Text: As far as the future is concerned, thinking about our system of government and how well it works – is this something you feel generally optimistic about, generally pessimistic about, or uncertain about?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
% O
pti
mis
tic
Youth Support for House of Representative
Candidates, 1992 to 2010
55
48
54
48
49 49
55 58
60
56
45
49
44
48
48 46 44
38
33
40
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Democrats Republicans
Per
cen
t %
Source: NEP Polls Youth refers to 18-29 year old voters.