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The Middle East Region Geopolitical Comments from the 19th Century through the Present

Presented by:Bob McKenzie

October 24, 2014

Introduction

Brief background of current and previous assignments and education

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Agenda

Why is Middle East relevant to the United States

Factors that influenced the shaping of today’s Middle East

Recent Major U.S. military involvement in the Middle East and Southwest Asia

Discussion questions 3

Importance of Middle East United States has declared the

Middle East to be a national interest

Access to resources Support of Israel Promote International Stability Access to US export markets

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Shaping Factors

Factors that influenced the shaping of today’s Middle East Colonial Antecedents Geography Climate Commerce Governing Structure Resources Demographics Culture and religion

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Map of today’s Middle East

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Middle East Resources

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Middle East Religions by Region

Middle East Population Growth

Population growth [1]

# 1990 2008 2010 1990-2008 Growth %

Million 1990-08 1990-10

1Bahrain 0.49 0.77 1.26 0.3 56% 157%

2Cyprus 0.58 0.80 0.80 0.2 38% 38%

3Egypt 57.79 81.53 81.12 23.7 41% 40%

4 Iran 54.40 71.96 73.97 17.6 32% 36%

5 Iraq 18.14 28.22 32.32 10.1 56% 78%

6 Israel 4.68 7.31 7.62 2.6 56% 63%

7 Jordan 3.17 5.91 6.05 2.7 86% 91%

8Kuwait 2.13 2.73 2.74 0.6 28% 29%

9Lebanon 2.97 4.14 4.23 1.2 39% 42%

10Oman 1.84 2.79 2.78 0.9 51% 51%

11Palestine 1.90 3.91 4.12 2.0 106% 117%

12Qatar 0.47 1.28 1.76 0.8 174% 274%

13Saudi Arabia

16.38 24.65 27.45 8.3 50% 68%

14Syria 12.72 21.23 20.45 8.5 67% 61%

15Turkey 55.12 71.08 72.85 16.0 29% 32%

16UAE 1.87 4.37 7.51 2.5 134% 302%

17Yemen 12.31 23.05 24.05 10.7 87% 95%

xTotal 246.96 355.73 371.08 66.9 51 % 61%

xWorld 5,265.2 6,687.9 6,825 1,422.7 27 % 30%

Source: OECD/World Bank

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Unemployment Rates

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US at War in Middle EastDesert Shield / Desert Storm (1990-1991)

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Operation Southern Watch (1991 – 2003)

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Operation Iraqi Freedom (2003-2009)

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US at War in Middle East 2014 Operation Inherent Resolve

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Islamic State of Iraq and Syria

Started in 1990s Expanded by Abu Musab al-

Zarqawi in 2004-6 (AQI) Leveraged Sunni discontent with

Baghdad Government since 2007 Became dominant military and

governing force opposing Assad in Syria

Today they have positioned military forces with 20 kilometers of Baghdad International Airport

What is ISIS about …..

Adhere to strict Muslim rules (Sharia Law) Establish a Caliphate from the Mediteranean to

the Northern Arabian Gulf Anti-Shia Muslim Anti-infidel Attempting to provide good governance over

captured areas Criminal Enterprise Death Cult An international magnet for disillusioned

Islamists Logistically disciplined Strategically Savvy Learning organization

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Area of ISIS Control

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Available US Military Power in Middle East

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Questions for Discussion

- Is the US at war with ISIS?

- What US national interests are impacted? Vital interests? Important interests? Peripheral?

- What end state does the US desire?

- What resources are the US willing to allocate to reach our desired end state?

- Can the ISIS governance model flourish?19